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8/14-8/17 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2020 14:27:40 GMT -5
Payrolls are right around 200 million now. Even if they grow 50% going forward, Betts is still 10% of a teams payroll. Nevermind the downside risk that contracts has. Last half of that deal is six years age 34-39. Anywhere near 10% could be a killer. This is Baseball, not Basketball. The best players can't take crappy teams and make them good. No team is trading for a 34 year old player with over 180 million left on his deal.
Say you sign Springer for four years. It's not close to as good as Betts. Yet after five years you sign another guy after another retool. That guy is much more likely to be better than Betts. It's long-term flexibility, which is how we have four Championship's in 15 years. Nevermind it's really Springer, Verdugo, Downs and Wong in this example. Even if Betts alone is equal in bwar, you now have three hopefully quality guys. With a good size chance Betts falls off a cliff when his athletic ability starts to fade. Betts will never be Ortiz who could hardly run yet be a great hitter. Betts uses his athletic ability to be the hitter he is and player overall. If your honest isn't he like the Sale of hitters? A guy who's body isn't ideal to last long-term? You never know, but it's not ideal that's for sure.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 16, 2020 14:49:18 GMT -5
Payrolls are right around 200 million now. Even if they grow 50% going forward, Betts is still 10% of a teams payroll. Nevermind the downside risk that contracts has. Last half of that deal is six years age 34-39. Anywhere near 10% could be a killer. This is Baseball, not Basketball. The best players can't take crappy teams and make them good. No team is trading for a 34 year old player with over 180 million left on his deal. Say you sign Springer for four years. It's not close to as good as Betts. Yet after five years you sign another guy after another retool. That guy is much more likely to be better than Betts. It's long-term flexibility, which is how we have four Championship's in 15 years. Nevermind it's really Springer, Verdugo, Downs and Wong in this example. Even if Betts alone is equal in bwar, you now have three hopefully quality guys. With a good size chance Betts falls off a cliff when his athletic ability starts to fade. Betts will never be Ortiz who could hardly run yet be a great hitter. Betts uses his athletic ability to be the hitter he is and player overall. If your honest isn't he like the Sale of hitters? A guy who's body isn't ideal to last long-term? You never know, but it's not ideal that's for sure. I know this comes up every few months, but - shouldn't Betts' skill-set age reasonably well since it's spread out across all 5 tools? Maybe his power slides, but he'd still be a good defender and base-runner. Or maybe the speed goes, but he'd still be a good hitter. And he should always have the strong arm and base-running smarts. Needless to say, no one is a sure bet once they get deep into their 30s, but I'd rather bet on Betts than, say, Aaron Judge. If he doesn't get totally run down by injuries, I could see him as a 2-3 WAR player in his late 30s, just based on whichever of his skills have deteriorated the least. And at that level of production, he's really not a payroll killer, even at his salary.
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Post by juanfatj on Aug 16, 2020 15:20:16 GMT -5
1. Kevin Pillar CF 2. Rafael Devers 3B 3. J.D. Martinez RF 4. Xander Bogaerts SS 5. Christian Vazquez DH 6. Alex Verdugo LF 7. Michael Chavis 1B 8. Kevin Plawecki C 9. Jonathan Arauz 2B
Starting Pitcher : Chris Mazza
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2020 15:40:52 GMT -5
Payrolls are right around 200 million now. Even if they grow 50% going forward, Betts is still 10% of a teams payroll. Nevermind the downside risk that contracts has. Last half of that deal is six years age 34-39. Anywhere near 10% could be a killer. This is Baseball, not Basketball. The best players can't take crappy teams and make them good. No team is trading for a 34 year old player with over 180 million left on his deal. Say you sign Springer for four years. It's not close to as good as Betts. Yet after five years you sign another guy after another retool. That guy is much more likely to be better than Betts. It's long-term flexibility, which is how we have four Championship's in 15 years. Nevermind it's really Springer, Verdugo, Downs and Wong in this example. Even if Betts alone is equal in bwar, you now have three hopefully quality guys. With a good size chance Betts falls off a cliff when his athletic ability starts to fade. Betts will never be Ortiz who could hardly run yet be a great hitter. Betts uses his athletic ability to be the hitter he is and player overall. If your honest isn't he like the Sale of hitters? A guy who's body isn't ideal to last long-term? You never know, but it's not ideal that's for sure. I know this comes up every few months, but - shouldn't Betts' skill-set age reasonably well since it's spread out across all 5 tools? Maybe his power slides, but he'd still be a good defender and base-runner. Or maybe the speed goes, but he'd still be a good hitter. And he should always have the strong arm and base-running smarts. Needless to say, no one is a sure bet once they get deep into their 30s, but I'd rather bet on Betts than, say, Aaron Judge. If he doesn't get totally run down by injuries, I could see him as a 2-3 WAR player in his late 30s, just based on whichever of his skills have deteriorated the least. And at that level of production, he's really not a payroll killer, even at his salary. He's 180 pounds, Trout is 235. For me the reason Betts is even close to Trout is his crazy athletic ability. If that goes in any meaningful way he will be a shell of the player he is. Trout runs into leg issues, stick him at 1B or DH. I don't see that with Betts and it really matters when were talking about age 34-39. If you picture Betts being 2-3 war player in his late 30s, you're basically saying he stays completely healthy and ages at the 1% best way possible. It could happen, yet highly unlikely. We did this before, for ever one guy that did that, 10-15 fell off a cliff. I'd bet on Martinez in his late 30's over Betts. You can try and keep him healthy at DH and his value hitting isn't tied to athletic ability.
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 15:54:24 GMT -5
I know this comes up every few months, but - shouldn't Betts' skill-set age reasonably well since it's spread out across all 5 tools? Maybe his power slides, but he'd still be a good defender and base-runner. Or maybe the speed goes, but he'd still be a good hitter. And he should always have the strong arm and base-running smarts. Needless to say, no one is a sure bet once they get deep into their 30s, but I'd rather bet on Betts than, say, Aaron Judge. If he doesn't get totally run down by injuries, I could see him as a 2-3 WAR player in his late 30s, just based on whichever of his skills have deteriorated the least. And at that level of production, he's really not a payroll killer, even at his salary. He's 180 pounds, Trout is 235. For me the reason Betts is even close to Trout is his crazy athletic ability. If that goes in any meaningful way he will be a shell of the player he is. Trout runs into leg issues, stick him at 1B or DH. I don't see that with Betts and it really matters when were talking about age 34-39. If you picture Betts being 2-3 war player in his late 30s, you're basically saying he stays completely healthy and ages at the 1% best way possible. It could happen, yet highly unlikely. We did this before, for ever one guy that did that, 10-15 fell off a cliff. I'd bet on Martinez in his late 30's over Betts. You can try and keep him healthy at DH and his value hitting isn't tied to athletic ability. Sticking to my word on he-who-won’t-be-named, but on JDM — he is a great hitter, but that is it. He is actually pretty replaceable. Last season, Edwin Encarnacion was close enough in bWAR that the gap would not be huge. I grant that JD is still likely to have be capable of a year like he had two years ago, which was huge. But he has been over 5 bWAR twice in his career. Over 4 once in the last 4 years. Finding a 3 bWAR DH is actually not that difficult a task... there have been EE or Nelson Cruz types floating around the last few years. This is part of why I’m in favor of trading him. It is also why I am very sympathetic to the people saying we won’t get much. It’s likely true, because his value might be lower than his often gaudy stats suggest.
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Post by station13 on Aug 16, 2020 16:05:35 GMT -5
1. Kevin Pillar CF 2. Rafael Devers 3B 3. J.D. Martinez RF 4. Xander Bogaerts SS 5. Christian Vazquez DH 6. Alex Verdugo LF 7. Michael Chavis 1B 8. Kevin Plawecki C 9. Jonathan Arauz 2B Starting Pitcher : Chris Mazza lol Vaz hitting 5th.
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Post by juanfatj on Aug 16, 2020 16:23:44 GMT -5
1. Kevin Pillar CF 2. Rafael Devers 3B 3. J.D. Martinez RF 4. Xander Bogaerts SS 5. Christian Vazquez DH 6. Alex Verdugo LF 7. Michael Chavis 1B 8. Kevin Plawecki C 9. Jonathan Arauz 2B Starting Pitcher : Chris Mazza lol Vaz hitting 5th. Has the time come to move Devers down to 4th and put Bogaerts in the 2? Or move Verdugo to the 2 and put Devers 5th? And I wouldn't mind seeing Arauz try leadoff.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2020 17:05:42 GMT -5
He's 180 pounds, Trout is 235. For me the reason Betts is even close to Trout is his crazy athletic ability. If that goes in any meaningful way he will be a shell of the player he is. Trout runs into leg issues, stick him at 1B or DH. I don't see that with Betts and it really matters when were talking about age 34-39. If you picture Betts being 2-3 war player in his late 30s, you're basically saying he stays completely healthy and ages at the 1% best way possible. It could happen, yet highly unlikely. We did this before, for ever one guy that did that, 10-15 fell off a cliff. I'd bet on Martinez in his late 30's over Betts. You can try and keep him healthy at DH and his value hitting isn't tied to athletic ability. Sticking to my word on he-who-won’t-be-named, but on JDM — he is a great hitter, but that is it. He is actually pretty replaceable. Last season, Edwin Encarnacion was close enough in bWAR that the gap would not be huge. I grant that JD is still likely to have be capable of a year like he had two years ago, which was huge. But he has been over 5 bWAR twice in his career. Over 4 once in the last 4 years. Finding a 3 bWAR DH is actually not that difficult a task... there have been EE or Nelson Cruz types floating around the last few years. This is part of why I’m in favor of trading him. It is also why I am very sympathetic to the people saying we won’t get much. It’s likely true, because his value might be lower than his often gaudy stats suggest. Umm my point was on him aging, which Cruz and Nelson backup. Finding a 3 bwar DH might not be hard in a given season, yet there are very few year after year type guys. Heck there aren't a ton of 3 plus offensive bwar type guys total year after year. Nevermind acting like Martinez is just a 3 bwar player is kinda crazy. He hasn't been below 3.9 bwar since 2013. Over the last six years 28.3 offensive bwar for 4.7 average. The guys basically a modern day David Ortiz and not easy to replace.
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 17:27:24 GMT -5
Sticking to my word on he-who-won’t-be-named, but on JDM — he is a great hitter, but that is it. He is actually pretty replaceable. Last season, Edwin Encarnacion was close enough in bWAR that the gap would not be huge. I grant that JD is still likely to have be capable of a year like he had two years ago, which was huge. But he has been over 5 bWAR twice in his career. Over 4 once in the last 4 years. Finding a 3 bWAR DH is actually not that difficult a task... there have been EE or Nelson Cruz types floating around the last few years. This is part of why I’m in favor of trading him. It is also why I am very sympathetic to the people saying we won’t get much. It’s likely true, because his value might be lower than his often gaudy stats suggest. Umm my point was on him aging, which Cruz and Nelson backup. Finding a 3 bwar DH might not be hard in a given season, yet there are very few year after year type guys. Heck there aren't a ton of 3 plus offensive bwar type guys total year after year. Nevermind acting like Martinez is just a 3 bwar player is kinda crazy. He hasn't been below 3.9 bwar since 2013. Over the last six years 28.3 offensive bwar for 4.7 average. The guys basically a modern day David Ortiz and not easy to replace. Well, David Ortiz is a modern day David Ortiz. He’s only been retired for four years. JDM is like an Ortiz who is not as good and has had all his flair and charisma drained by a mortician.
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Post by station13 on Aug 16, 2020 17:32:06 GMT -5
Has the time come to move Devers down to 4th and put Bogaerts in the 2? Or move Verdugo to the 2 and put Devers 5th? And I wouldn't mind seeing Arauz try leadoff. Moving Devers around in a lost season makes no sense. Just have him work this stretch through. Verdugo I would try to see if he could become a lead off hitter. They've got nothing there.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 16, 2020 17:34:50 GMT -5
Has the time come to move Devers down to 4th and put Bogaerts in the 2? Or move Verdugo to the 2 and put Devers 5th? And I wouldn't mind seeing Arauz try leadoff. he had a couple of hits last night, granted they weren't rockets or anything. He still has all the talent, would like to see him hack his way out of it.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 16, 2020 17:39:47 GMT -5
The Hacktastic brothers were a sight to see last night. Peraza was doing everything he could to not walk and Pillar was basically swinging at pitches at least 6 inches outside the zone. If I was watching that every night, I would break the TV.
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Post by juanfatj on Aug 16, 2020 17:42:08 GMT -5
Any thoughts on Verdugo playing some CF, he played 61 games in CF with LA. If he could become the long term replacement in cf that would increase his value quite a bit.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Aug 16, 2020 17:49:39 GMT -5
In 2 years, Chris Mazza went from pitching for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs to being named starter for Sunday Night Baseball at Yankee stadium.
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2020 18:00:07 GMT -5
In 2 years, Chris Mazza went from pitching for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs to being named starter for Sunday Night Baseball at Yankee stadium. Well, in the tiny chance he spins gold, makes it a fairy tale story? To go back to a question from earlier: I am not sure how I feel hoping for wins overall, but in a lost season I am hoping guys like Mazza and Hart and Weber can do well not because they are going to be long term answers, but because it is always nice for guys who are not stars, who grind, to get rewarded in at least a small way.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Aug 16, 2020 18:05:25 GMT -5
In 2 years, Chris Mazza went from pitching for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs to being named starter for Sunday Night Baseball at Yankee stadium. Well, in the tiny chance he spins gold, makes it a fairy tale story? To go back to a question from earlier: I am not sure how I feel hoping for wins overall, but in a lost season I am hoping guys like Mazza and Hart and Weber can do well not because they are going to be long term answers, but because it is always nice for guys who are not stars, who grind, to get rewarded in at least a small way. All you can ask for is a shot. Let's see what he does with it.
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Post by kjkramer on Aug 16, 2020 18:20:13 GMT -5
Here we go again
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Post by juanfatj on Aug 16, 2020 18:25:20 GMT -5
We catch zero breaks! Bloop after bloop falls in.
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Post by station13 on Aug 16, 2020 18:29:18 GMT -5
Sanchez pulled a Devers there.
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Post by station13 on Aug 16, 2020 18:41:03 GMT -5
So did Chavis.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Aug 16, 2020 18:51:59 GMT -5
Routine grounder bounces off first base to score a run. Pretty emblematic.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 16, 2020 18:54:13 GMT -5
i have been following the Red Sox against the Yanks for 45 years. I have never felt so helpless against them. And they arent even playing their best tonight.
I think that is something we haven't mentioned enough. Price, Mookie, Sale...how do you replace that leadership.
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Post by cheers on Aug 16, 2020 18:57:35 GMT -5
Routine grounder bounces off first base to score a run. Pretty emblematic. Mazza really doesn't look bad. He's hitting his spots, and nobody is barreling him up. This team can't catch a break, not that there are enough breaks to matter much. Oooo Pillar. Nice.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 16, 2020 18:57:42 GMT -5
Pillar with a nice shot
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 16, 2020 18:58:56 GMT -5
Score one for the good guys.
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