SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Let’s discuss the Red Sox horrendous pitching
|
Post by patford on Aug 23, 2020 19:19:47 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Aug 23, 2020 21:17:03 GMT -5
I think you are assuming people are saying he’ll be 26 again. The point to me is that there is pretty solid chance (not mere hope, because there are foundations) for expecting him to be at least a good #3. Even hurt last year, his numbers were not brutal — they were actually pretty good. His post season record is mixed... in 4 starts. Price was a bad post-season pitcher until he wasn’t. Ditto Clemens. The post-season is so odd and so short, it is hard to call a few bad starts a reason to think next time won’t better. Finally, it is true Sale has better first half numbers in his career, but his career second half numbers would bring a smile to my face if it was what he did on returning. 3.33 ERA. 1.12 WHIP. A higher k/9 than his first half average. He hardly falls off a cliff. I guess my point is, who knows? But you make it sound like Chris Sale was ALWAYS a problem, even before his injury. Age and injury may indeed take a toll. But 32/33 is not ancient, and TJ is not that insurmountable. I don’t count him out having a good (not world beating, but good) 2022. Well the poster patford seems to think he'll be better than anytime ever with the sox and then another poster said he'll take him at 30%. OFc that's an exaggeration but the point is I think there becomes an acceptance that as long as they aren't awful it means they are good enough. I can see him becoming a number 3 starter. And I can see ERod being one as well. I can see ERod at best being good but never great. But where are we getting the number one starter or high number 2? You mentioned Max? Max is going to be 38 in 2022. In regards to Sale-- I think he has a problem at the end of seasons. I just look at his ERA for Sept/Oct - in 2015 it was 4.34, In 2016 it was 4.39. In 2017 it was 3.72. In 2018 it was 3.75. These are examples of fade. As he gets older I can't say it's going to get better. Sure -- it might. That's what I think I can only "hope." As of right now, am I wrong, there is no pitcher you or I can lock into and say "We got our top tier ace for 2-3 years." Yanks can. Rays can. Oakland can. It doesn't mean for sure it's doom. But imo hope for our big 3 -- at best the ceiling for them in 2022 is number 3 starter. And I can't see in FA a 1 or 2 starter.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Aug 23, 2020 21:38:29 GMT -5
I think you are assuming people are saying he’ll be 26 again. The point to me is that there is pretty solid chance (not mere hope, because there are foundations) for expecting him to be at least a good #3. Even hurt last year, his numbers were not brutal — they were actually pretty good. His post season record is mixed... in 4 starts. Price was a bad post-season pitcher until he wasn’t. Ditto Clemens. The post-season is so odd and so short, it is hard to call a few bad starts a reason to think next time won’t better. Finally, it is true Sale has better first half numbers in his career, but his career second half numbers would bring a smile to my face if it was what he did on returning. 3.33 ERA. 1.12 WHIP. A higher k/9 than his first half average. He hardly falls off a cliff. I guess my point is, who knows? But you make it sound like Chris Sale was ALWAYS a problem, even before his injury. Age and injury may indeed take a toll. But 32/33 is not ancient, and TJ is not that insurmountable. I don’t count him out having a good (not world beating, but good) 2022. Well the poster patford seems to think he'll be better than anytime ever with the sox and then another poster said he'll take him at 30%. OFc that's an exaggeration but the point is I think there becomes an acceptance that as long as they aren't awful it means they are good enough. I can see him becoming a number 3 starter. And I can see ERod being one as well. I can see ERod at best being good but never great. But where are we getting the number one starter or high number 2? You mentioned Max? Max is going to be 38 in 2022. In regards to Sale-- I think he has a problem at the end of seasons. I just look at his ERA for Sept/Oct - in 2015 it was 4.34, In 2016 it was 4.39. In 2017 it was 3.72. In 2018 it was 3.75. These are examples of fade. As he gets older I can't say it's going to get better. Sure -- it might. That's what I think I can only "hope." As of right now, am I wrong, there is no pitcher you or I can lock into and say "We got our top tier ace for 2-3 years." Yanks can. Rays can. Oakland can. It doesn't mean for sure it's doom. But imo hope for our big 3 -- at best the ceiling for them in 2022 is number 3 starter. And I can't see in FA a 1 or 2 starter. Well, I guess that’s why I am in the tank-bridge-go plan. Tank this year, sell as much as you can for highest return (NOT X or Devers); bridge next season with lineup moves that project for a few years (trade, FA, promotion); then look to the big (yes old) FA class. Max will be 38, so we’ll see what he is. But right now, he looks like he still has it. If he doesn’t look good next year, on to the next guy. But pitching is funky. The Yanks have Cole. Looks great. But things change. Cole was born one year after Chris Sale. Let’s not put Sale in a walker and assume Cole rolls on indefinitely.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2020 13:53:18 GMT -5
Numbers from this year are hard to trust. Case in point from yesterday:
Zack Godley's EV through 41 pitches (long Thames PA to flyout) was
83.3 +/- 7.6 (12 balls made fair contact)
Thereafter:
99.7 +/- 5.0. (7 balls fair contact)
Now, he finished the 3rd with 46 pitches and, and he had his given up his hardest and 3rd hardest hit balls to the last two batters.
The odds against a guy facing 14 guys with consistent command / stuff and having his split in EV between his first 12 guys and his last 2 being random are 155 to 1.
With a deeper staff, you don't send him out there for the 4th.
The first batter in the 4th takes him yard at 102.0. Odds are now 783 to 1. With a deeper staff and anything less than a 5-run lead, he's out at that point.
He was still in the game when the odds against his appearance of tiring being just random were 7,035 to 1. He was lifted two batter later (the first being his first BB of the game, to Gomes on 5 pitches), when they reached 20,970 to 1.
What I've done here is find part of the the proper basis for something I've always wanted to -- create an entirely objective metric for a slow hook, one that could be used to erase chunks of data from a pitcher's record, data that wouln't be there under any ordinary cicrumstances.
A study of the way EV blows up as a pitcher tires would also give insight into what goes wrong as that happens. Godley had three K's an no walks while being destroyed, so it's clear that he suffered a loss of command rather than control. We've all see tiring pitchers lose their control, and in fact that did happen to Godley, but that was 8 hitters after he lost his command.
The cool thing is that you can click on the Statcast summaries for any game, sort the column by pitcher, and the results are chronological. So you look down a guy's results and spot him losing it pretty easily. And in fact I just did it for Godley's three bad games (8/1, 8/12, 8/23) and in all of those he gave up 100+ to one of the first two guys to make contact.
(His bad outings have been on 4, 3, and 4 days rest. His good outings have been 6, 5, and 6, and his spectacular outing was his debut. This seems backwards until you realize that he's probably throwing an extra side session with the longer rest. This guy this year looks like a really good reliever, although he hasn't shown any obvious evidence for that split between roles in the past. But I really haven't looked deeper into this hypothesis.)
Do I have time to look at every Sox outing this way? Before the beginning of next year, quite possibly. In theory, you could construct a spreadsheet that would do the work for you.
|
|
|
Post by kingstephanos on Aug 31, 2020 13:59:14 GMT -5
Numbers from this year are hard to trust. Case in point from yesterday: Zack Godley's EV through 41 pitches (long Thames PA to flyout) was
83.3 +/- 7.6 (12 balls made fair contact)
Thereafter:
99.7 +/- 5.0. (7 balls fair contact)
Now, he finished the 3rd with 46 pitches and, and he had his given up his hardest and 3rd hardest hit balls to the last two batters.
The odds against a guy facing 14 guys with consistent command / stuff and having his split in EV between his first 12 guys and his last 2 being random are 155 to 1.
With a deeper staff, you don't send him out there for the 4th.
The first batter in the 4th takes him yard at 102.0. Odds are now 783 to 1. With a deeper staff and anything less than a 5-run lead, he's out at that point. He was still in the game when the odds against his appearance of tiring being just random were 7,035 to 1. He was lifted two batter later (the first being his first BB of the game, to Gomes on 5 pitches), when they reached 20,970 to 1. What I've done here is find part of the the proper basis for something I've always wanted to -- create an entirely objective metric for a slow hook, one that could be used to erase chunks of data from a pitcher's record, data that wouln't be there under any ordinary cicrumstances.
A study of the way EV blows up as a pitcher tires would also give insight into what goes wrong as that happens. Godley had three K's an no walks while being destroyed, so it's clear that he suffered a loss of command rather than control. We've all see tiring pitchers lose their control, and in fact that did happen to Godley, but that was 8 hitters after he lost his command. The cool thing is that you can click on the Statcast summaries for any game, sort the column by pitcher, and the results are chronological. So you look down a guy's results and spot him losing it pretty easily. And in fact I just did it for Godley's three bad games (8/1, 8/12, 8/23) and in all of those he gave up 100+ to one of the first two guys to make contact. (His bad outings have been on 4, 3, and 4 days rest. His good outings have been 6, 5, and 6, and his spectacular outing was his debut. This seems backwards until you realize that he's probably throwing an extra side session with the longer rest. This guy this year looks like a really good reliever, although he hasn't shown any obvious evidence for that split between roles in the past. But I really haven't looked deeper into this hypothesis.)
Do I have time to look at every Sox outing this way? Before the beginning of next year, quite possibly. In theory, you could construct a spreadsheet that would do the work for you.
What are your thoughts on the pitchers obtained from Philadelphia, Eric?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Sept 1, 2020 22:40:00 GMT -5
Things are going great!
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Sept 2, 2020 14:47:10 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 2, 2020 14:51:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ghostofrussgibson on Sept 2, 2020 16:45:53 GMT -5
If the Sox need a veteran lefty... I'm almost 60... used to throw mid-80s, but now only throw rice at weddings. No agent to deal with. Call me. Just don't ask me to pitch in night games - they're past my bedtime. Thanks!
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2020 16:57:17 GMT -5
If the Sox need a veteran lefty... I'm almost 60... used to throw mid-80s, but now only throw rice at weddings. No agent to deal with. Call me. Just don't ask me to pitch in night games - they're past my bedtime. Thanks! Kyle, you’ve had your chance.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2020 17:00:09 GMT -5
It's just an opener. Roenicke said it would've been Brice but they used him last night.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2020 17:25:10 GMT -5
I think you are assuming people are saying he’ll be 26 again. The point to me is that there is pretty solid chance (not mere hope, because there are foundations) for expecting him to be at least a good #3. Even hurt last year, his numbers were not brutal — they were actually pretty good. His post season record is mixed... in 4 starts. Price was a bad post-season pitcher until he wasn’t. Ditto Clemens. The post-season is so odd and so short, it is hard to call a few bad starts a reason to think next time won’t better. Finally, it is true Sale has better first half numbers in his career, but his career second half numbers would bring a smile to my face if it was what he did on returning. 3.33 ERA. 1.12 WHIP. A higher k/9 than his first half average. He hardly falls off a cliff. I guess my point is, who knows? But you make it sound like Chris Sale was ALWAYS a problem, even before his injury. Age and injury may indeed take a toll. But 32/33 is not ancient, and TJ is not that insurmountable. I don’t count him out having a good (not world beating, but good) 2022. Well the poster patford seems to think he'll be better than anytime ever with the sox and then another poster said he'll take him at 30%. OFc that's an exaggeration but the point is I think there becomes an acceptance that as long as they aren't awful it means they are good enough. I can see him becoming a number 3 starter. And I can see ERod being one as well. I can see ERod at best being good but never great. But where are we getting the number one starter or high number 2? You mentioned Max? Max is going to be 38 in 2022. In regards to Sale-- I think he has a problem at the end of seasons. I just look at his ERA for Sept/Oct - in 2015 it was 4.34, In 2016 it was 4.39. In 2017 it was 3.72. In 2018 it was 3.75. These are examples of fade. As he gets older I can't say it's going to get better. Sure -- it might. That's what I think I can only "hope." As of right now, am I wrong, there is no pitcher you or I can lock into and say "We got our top tier ace for 2-3 years." Yanks can. Rays can. Oakland can. It doesn't mean for sure it's doom. But imo hope for our big 3 -- at best the ceiling for them in 2022 is number 3 starter. And I can't see in FA a 1 or 2 starter. E-Rod being a #3 would suck, since he was a #2 last year, and a somewhat better than average one to boot.
A #2 is a guy who is among the top 45 starters in MLB. The top 15 guys are the aces; since one key typical difference between a contender and non-contender is that the former has an ace and the latter doesn't, it follows that there are only enough aces to populate the first division clubs. So the next 30 guys are the #2's. The average #2 ranks 30th in MLB.
E-Rod was 7th in MLB in bWAR, 26th in fWAR, 25th in xwOBA, and about 35th in wOBA after adjusting for team wOBA-xwOBA.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2020 17:28:38 GMT -5
Well the poster patford seems to think he'll be better than anytime ever with the sox and then another poster said he'll take him at 30%. OFc that's an exaggeration but the point is I think there becomes an acceptance that as long as they aren't awful it means they are good enough. I can see him becoming a number 3 starter. And I can see ERod being one as well. I can see ERod at best being good but never great. But where are we getting the number one starter or high number 2? You mentioned Max? Max is going to be 38 in 2022. In regards to Sale-- I think he has a problem at the end of seasons. I just look at his ERA for Sept/Oct - in 2015 it was 4.34, In 2016 it was 4.39. In 2017 it was 3.72. In 2018 it was 3.75. These are examples of fade. As he gets older I can't say it's going to get better. Sure -- it might. That's what I think I can only "hope." As of right now, am I wrong, there is no pitcher you or I can lock into and say "We got our top tier ace for 2-3 years." Yanks can. Rays can. Oakland can. It doesn't mean for sure it's doom. But imo hope for our big 3 -- at best the ceiling for them in 2022 is number 3 starter. And I can't see in FA a 1 or 2 starter. E-Rod being a #3 would suck, since he was a #2 last year, and a somewhat better than average one to boot.
A #2 is a guy who is among the top 45 starters in MLB. The top 15 guys are the aces; since one key typical difference between a contender and non-contender is that the former has an ace and the latter doesn't, it follows that there are only enough aces to populate the first division clubs. So the next 30 guys are the #2's. The average #2 ranks 30th in MLB.
E-Rod was 7th in MLB in bWAR, 26th in fWAR, 25th in xwOBA, and about 35th in wOBA after adjusting for team wOBA-xwOBA. Unless it means our one and two are so good they push him to three! 🤞 But yeah, ERod last year really got it together, and there might even be a bit further for him to go. I just really hope he gets well (not only for baseball reasons, obviously).
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Sept 2, 2020 21:12:09 GMT -5
We are a tire fire.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Sept 2, 2020 22:22:21 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 2, 2020 22:40:37 GMT -5
Kickham, Trigg, I mean,where they getting these guys.? This, on top of Brewer, Spring and the long parade of never-heard-ofs who have graced the mound at Fenway Park. Is this the best our GM can do? It is embarrassing to this franchise that it cannot find decent replacements for the loss of the staff because of injuries and trades. Don’t expect anyone to replace a Sale, E-Rod, Price, etc., but fans should hope that the administration would bring in respectable pitchers and not make this franchise a laughing stock.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2020 22:47:47 GMT -5
In the long run, what is happening at the alt site more than offsets what's happening at the major league level.
Groome, Mata & Houck have all taken giant steps forward this year plus we've added Seabold and Pivetta. There are also a large number of relievers with upside and team control if they can straighten them out.
|
|
|
Post by beavertontim on Sept 2, 2020 22:57:52 GMT -5
Kickham, Trigg, I mean,where they getting these guys.? This, on top of Brewer, Spring and the long parade of never-heard-ofs who have graced the mound at Fenway Park. Is this the best our GM can do? It is embarrassing to this franchise that it cannot find decent replacements for the loss of the staff because of injuries and trades. Don’t expect anyone to replace a Sale, E-Rod, Price, etc., but fans should hope that the administration would bring in respectable pitchers and not make this franchise a laughing stock. Not sure how you do that and cut payroll. Injury payroll still counts and the respectable pitchers you speak of are not cheap. I will take a year like this if it is as a result of successfully going all in a few years ago to win the world series. Do I like it, no, but unless you are the Yankees or the Dodgers, this is luxury tax baseball. Being that baseball is the only sport not to have a cap, the next CBA will probably make this pattern even a more regular occurrence going forward.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,976
|
Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2020 23:24:38 GMT -5
Idk about y’all but I’m having fun watching the team trot out some of these guys. Getting a lot of laughs watching Ozuna bail and leave the galaxy on Triggs
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 3, 2020 1:15:14 GMT -5
Kickham, Trigg, I mean,where they getting these guys.? This, on top of Brewer, Spring and the long parade of never-heard-ofs who have graced the mound at Fenway Park. Is this the best our GM can do? It is embarrassing to this franchise that it cannot find decent replacements for the loss of the staff because of injuries and trades. Don’t expect anyone to replace a Sale, E-Rod, Price, etc., but fans should hope that the administration would bring in respectable pitchers and not make this franchise a laughing stock. Other teams are in a playoff race and have stockpiled AAA pitching. Josh Smith would probably be better, but I don't think he's available. The only other name I can think of is .... Josh Smith. I give GM Bloom an A+.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 3, 2020 6:25:46 GMT -5
Let’s just hope MLB puts more weight on this year than last year for draft order.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 3, 2020 14:27:06 GMT -5
Up to date numbers. I have two new pERA metrics, one an improvment on the previious one and the other that's more accurate for guys with less than 25 batters faced. I've also included Statcast's projected ERA (as sERA), which is based on xwOBA. Remember that the whole impetus for my pERA (based just on K%, BB%, EV, Launch Angle, HardHit%, and Barrell%) is that xwOBA can score a fluke bloop single as a certain hit. Name TBF IP pERA sERA ERA Darw. Hernandez 20 4.7 1.80 2.29 0.00 Brasier 8/18+ 31 6.7 2.15 0.00 Phillips Valdez 88 21.0 3.16 2.92 0.86 Robert Stock 33 6.0 3.28 5.23 7.50 Robinson Leyer 11 2.0 3.39 4.58 4.50 Dylan Covey 26 6.3 3.75 4.31 7.11 Jeffrey Springs 57 11.7 4.45 5.30 8.49 Chris Mazza 43 8.0 4.51 6.50 7.88 Martin Perez 147 35.3 4.86 4.71 4.58 Weber 8/12+ 69 18.0 4.89 3.50 Nathan Eovaldi 145 34.3 4.91 4.77 4.98 Austin Brice 71 17.0 4.95 4.14 6.35 Ryan Brasier 66 14.7 5.08 4.77 4.91 Mike Kickham 14 3.0 5.19 4.68 9.00 Andrew Triggs 12 3.0 5.24 5.72 9.00 Zack Godley 129 25.7 5.53 6.03 7.71 Matt Barnes 65 14.0 6.31 6.10 5.14 Marcus Walden 47 9.0 6.66 7.05 12.00 Josh Taylor 25 5.3 6.86 6.18 8.44 Colten Brewer 122 25.7 6.93 8.28 5.61 Ryan Weber 123 28.0 6.93 6.46 5.79 Matt Hall 26 4.7 7.25 10.11 15.43 Kyle Hart 67 11.0 7.56 11.54 15.55 Total 5.37 5.72 6.26 Note that both my metric and xwOBA do not adjust for direction of batted balls or defense. So the 5.37 versus 5.72 is entirely cheap hits.
The 5.72 versus 6.26 is three things: defense, batted ball direction (more balls down the lines increase ERA legitimately), and clustering or scattering what you give up. Cluster / scatter has one real component at the team level -- slow hooks. And slow hooks also inflate pERA.
The ERA based on strikeouts, walks, hardness of contact, and groundball versus flyball tendency is 0.89 lower than the actual ERA. And that projected ERA is inflated by slow hooks. The pitching hasn't been good, but it's nowhere near historically bad, as you'd think from raw ERA.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2020 14:14:20 GMT -5
Up to date numbers. I have two new pERA metrics, one an improvment on the previious one and the other that's more accurate for guys with less than 25 batters faced. I've also included Statcast's projected ERA (as sERA), which is based on xwOBA. Remember that the whole impetus for my pERA (based just on K%, BB%, EV, Launch Angle, HardHit%, and Barrell%) is that xwOBA can score a fluke bloop single as a certain hit. Name TBF IP pERA sERA ERA Darw. Hernandez 20 4.7 1.80 2.29 0.00 Brasier 8/18+ 31 6.7 2.15 0.00 Phillips Valdez 88 21.0 3.16 2.92 0.86 Robert Stock 33 6.0 3.28 5.23 7.50 Robinson Leyer 11 2.0 3.39 4.58 4.50 Dylan Covey 26 6.3 3.75 4.31 7.11 Jeffrey Springs 57 11.7 4.45 5.30 8.49 Chris Mazza 43 8.0 4.51 6.50 7.88 Martin Perez 147 35.3 4.86 4.71 4.58 Weber 8/12+ 69 18.0 4.89 3.50 Nathan Eovaldi 145 34.3 4.91 4.77 4.98 Austin Brice 71 17.0 4.95 4.14 6.35 Ryan Brasier 66 14.7 5.08 4.77 4.91 Mike Kickham 14 3.0 5.19 4.68 9.00 Andrew Triggs 12 3.0 5.24 5.72 9.00 Zack Godley 129 25.7 5.53 6.03 7.71 Matt Barnes 65 14.0 6.31 6.10 5.14 Marcus Walden 47 9.0 6.66 7.05 12.00 Josh Taylor 25 5.3 6.86 6.18 8.44 Colten Brewer 122 25.7 6.93 8.28 5.61 Ryan Weber 123 28.0 6.93 6.46 5.79 Matt Hall 26 4.7 7.25 10.11 15.43 Kyle Hart 67 11.0 7.56 11.54 15.55 Total 5.37 5.72 6.26 Note that both my metric and xwOBA do not adjust for direction of batted balls or defense. So the 5.37 versus 5.72 is entirely cheap hits.
The 5.72 versus 6.26 is three things: defense, batted ball direction (more balls down the lines increase ERA legitimately), and clustering or scattering what you give up. Cluster / scatter has one real component at the team level -- slow hooks. And slow hooks also inflate pERA.
The ERA based on strikeouts, walks, hardness of contact, and groundball versus flyball tendency is 0.89 lower than the actual ERA. And that projected ERA is inflated by slow hooks. The pitching hasn't been good, but it's nowhere near historically bad, as you'd think from raw ERA.
Updates:
Brasier recent: 2.15 > 2.44 Valdez 3.16 > 3.87 Stock 3.28 > 5.37 Leyer 3.39 > 2.86 Springs 4.45 > 4.20 Mazza 4.51 > 4.36 Perez 4.86 > 5.02 Weber recent 4.89 > 4.59 (correction) Tonight will tell us whether this should be a starter / reliever split rather than before / after.
Brice 4.95 > 5.32 Godley 5.53 > 6.19 (but will be split by days rest next time) Barnes 6.31 > 5.70. I may want to split him into a before and after. Walden 6.66 > 5.91 Taylor 6.81 > 6.40. I'll look into splitting him, too.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2020 15:06:53 GMT -5
Updates: Godley 5.53 > 6.19 (but will be split by days rest next time) Barnes 6.31 > 5.70. I may want to split him into a before and after. Taylor 6.81 > 6.40. I'll look into splitting him, too. Godley is 9.72 (69 PA) on short or regular rest and 3.22 (74 PA) on 5 days or more. But if you remove him from his 8/30 start after giving up the leadoff HR in the 4th, when his EV split was 83.3 in his first 12 contacts, and 100.9 in his last 3 (1 in 785 chance of being random), it's 2.98 in 65 PA. Obviously, it goes up with each extra batter he was left in to face, but leaving him in to give up three more rockets is not normal or predictive (or sane).
The extra-rested Godley has been the team's best pitcher other than Darwinzon's SSS. And the sample size is topped only Perez, Eobaldi, Weber, and Brewer. And it's not like there's no precedent here; he had 4.3 bWAR in 2017. It seems that nothing has happened to his skills in the three years since; he's just lost the ability to pitch long outings on regular rest. You have to figure out how to use a guy like that.
Barnes was 6.73 before the deadline and is -1.96 in his 3 outings as a closer. 5 K, 0 BB, 84.0 EV and -6.7 PA.
Taylor has an equally small sample starting 8/30 and is 5.93 turning into 0.73.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2020 15:49:56 GMT -5
Updates: Godley 5.53 > 6.19 (but will be split by days rest next time) Barnes 6.31 > 5.70. I may want to split him into a before and after. Taylor 6.81 > 6.40. I'll look into splitting him, too. Godley is 9.72 (69 PA) on short or regular rest and 3.22 (74 PA) on 5 days or more. But if you remove him from his 8/30 start after giving up the leadoff HR in the 4th, when his EV split was 83.3 in his first 12 contacts, and 100.9 in his last 3 (1 in 785 chance of being random), it's 2.98 in 65 PA. Obviously, it goes up with each extra batter he was left in to face, but leaving him in to give up three more rockets is not normal or predictive (or sane).
The extra-rested Godley has been the team's best pitcher other than Darwinzon's SSS. And the sample size is topped only Perez, Eobaldi, Weber, and Brewer. And it's not like there's no precedent here; he had 4.3 bWAR in 2017. It seems that nothing has happened to his skills in the three years since; he's just lost the ability to pitch long outings on regular rest. You have to figure out how to use a guy like that.
Barnes was 6.73 before the deadline and is -1.96 in his 3 outings as a closer. 5 K, 0 BB, 84.0 EV and -6.7 PA.
Taylor has an equally small sample starting 8/30 and is 5.93 turning into 0.73.
For his career, Godley has a starting ERA of 14.04 on 3 days rest (only 3 starts) 5.22 on 4 days rest (38 starts) 4.48 on 5 days rest (28 starts) He had a bWAR OF 4.3 in 2017. Since then, he is -2.4. In that span, he has pitched 74 times, with 48 starts, to the tune of a 5.45 ERA. ERA+ of 79. WHIP of 1.512. Interestingly, in his one good year, rest was not the issue: 4 days: 3.39 ERA (11 starts) (OPS .654) 5 days: 3.53 ERA (8 starts) (OPS .690) 6+ days: 3.25 (6 starts) (OPS .637) The point being: the one season he didn’t stink, rest was not a problem. So maybe — Occam’s razor — the rest issue doesn’t explain his stinking so much as he stinks, but being better rested he stinks slightly less — just as many athletes (especially as they age) would benefit from a bit extra rest? And maybe he is *better* when served his ideal conditions, but isn’t the bigger picture point that he is simply not very good? That he had one big year when he was 27, and now, at 30 he has a pretty established record of not being that guy? Add: and Godley’s starts this season: 1 game on 3 days rest. Bombed. 3 games on 4 days rest: 12.00 ERA 1 game on 5 days rest: 2.25 ERA 2 games on 6+: 5.19 ERA That does not seem like a lot of data. His longest appearance is 4.2 innings. A starter who a) can’t finish the fifth inning and b) needs extra rest to give 4 good innings is not helpful. One last comp: Godley has given the Sox 4 good innings 3 times this season. Weber has a comparable record, with 3 scoreless innings against the Yankees, a near-miracle 6 inning, 1 run performance against the Rays, and 4 inning, 2 runs against the Braves. And he stinks, too. But you cherry pick their best performances, and Weber comes out just as good or better.
|
|
|