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Post by jbsox on Oct 23, 2020 11:46:43 GMT -5
Let's start with guys who I believe we can be sure of making the 40-man roster that's fixed for the Rule 5 draft:
Players in italics are expected to be optioned when and if all MLB guys are healthy. Additions are marked with +.
C (2 + 2): Vazquez, Plawecki; Grullon, Wong+ CIF (2 + 1): Dalbec, Devers; Potts+ MIF (3 + 3): Bogaerts, Chavis, Arroyo; Munoz, Arauz, Chatham OF (3 +2): Benintendi, Verdugo, Martinez; Wilson, Rosario+
SP (6 + 4): Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta, Houck; Mazza, Mata+, Groome+, Seabold+ RP: (3 + 5) Barnes, Brasier, Hernandez; Taylor, Valdez, Tapia, Weber, Aybar
That's 19 definite MLB players and 17 others.
Other predictable fates:
Non-Tender / Re-sign: Peraza, Brice, Godley DFA, re-sign: Lin, Puello DFA: Hall, Triggs, Kickham DFA, FO job: Pedroia
That leaves six pitchers for three spots, if we're leaving room for a Rule 5 draftee. I think Springs and Stock are very likely.
The other four are Covey (out of options), Walden, Hart (who apparently was never 100% this year), and Brewer. If I had to guess, they grab someone else from the waiver wire and DFA all four. I list them in the order that they are likely or desirable to survive as NRI's into next spring.
Now, in the long run, we are likely looking to add 7 players: a CF, a 4th OFer who hits RH, a backup 1B who hits LH, a starting pitcher, a closer, and 2 setup guys. (Acquiring a 2B would likely mean moving Arroyo or Chavis.) It's possible that they are so high on the trio of Valdez, Tapia, and Taylor that they only grab one setup man, but I think the odds are against that.
The first three trims would be Springs, Stock, and the waiver acquisition, all of whom you hope clear waivers. Mazza is a fourth guy you can probably do that with. There's even a chance that Munoz could be sneaked through.
That leaves two or (more likely) 3 players who need to be trimmed. We can get a handle on them by listing the candidates in inverse order of their prospect ratings, with players Bloom did not acquire in bold:
Aybar, Wilson, Grullon, Arauz, Chatham.
These could be used in trades to fill one or more of the seven needs. It's possible that Wong or even Potts could be moved; anyone higher ranked would surprise me. If they still need trims after making all their deals, in order to sign the last FA or two, I would expect these players to be traded for an interesting lottery ticket or two rather than DFA'd.
Very nice breakdown. When I look at this, and see Chavis, Arroyo, Munoz, Arauz (even subtracting Chatham), along with a need for a LH 1st baseman, and a RH OF it seems a little cluttered. Maybe there is a chance for consolidation or doing something creative. Without digging deep I believe Chavis and Verdugo (maybe Bradley JR too this season?) had good reverse splits. So maybe Chavis could be like our LH first baseman because of the reverse splits. Munoz seems like he is capable of playing LF and Verdugo able to hit lefties well maybe it limits the need for RH OF, even with a re-signed Bradley JR. Though you would be a little vulnerable if our new CF or Verdugo gets hurt. Maybe you could sign a LH first baseman like Travis Shaw who can also play a little 2nd and 3rd, and subtract out one of the other guys.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Oct 23, 2020 14:34:43 GMT -5
One more open spot on the 40 man:
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 23, 2020 15:23:26 GMT -5
I don’t like that they waived him
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 23, 2020 15:26:14 GMT -5
I don’t like that they waived him The nonsense over keeping the wrong ones begins. Get ready for it.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 23, 2020 16:49:49 GMT -5
I cannot believe they let him go with all the bums we have in our bullpen right now. Kid showed promise. If they waste a roster spot for pedey I'll be pissed.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 23, 2020 17:28:51 GMT -5
I cannot believe they let him go with all the bums we have in our bullpen right now. Kid showed promise. If they waste a roster spot for pedey I'll be pissed. I am fine with using a roster spot for Pedey if that’s the way it works out. I am truly surprised we let Tapia go via waiver. I guess they know more than we do but his talent seemed to be head and shoulders above most of the vast 2020 Sox reliever core. Yes, John Silver, so it begins.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 23, 2020 18:52:26 GMT -5
I cannot believe they let him go with all the bums we have in our bullpen right now. Kid showed promise. If they waste a roster spot for pedey I'll be pissed. I am fine with using a roster spot for Pedey if that’s the way it works out. I am truly surprised we let Tapia go via waiver. I guess they know more than we do but his talent seemed to be head and shoulders above most of the vast 2020 Sox reliever core. Yes, John Silver, so it begins. I am not we have done enough to feed his ego the last 3 seasons. Its about time he gets a grip and understands what everyone has for two seasons his playing days are over. At this point if he has an issue with it he is selfish beyond belief.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2020 19:41:19 GMT -5
Everyone realizes they're going to need to DFA seven guys just to get the 45/60-day IL guys onto the roster (or do so with the guys on the IL in some cases), right? There are 6 more to go, and that's before the Rule 5 guys.
Of the 47 including Tapia, there are like 13 guys, minimum, coming off the roster.
Edit: Also, keep in mind they didn't just cut him. They were probably hoping to sneak him through waivers early.
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 23, 2020 19:48:36 GMT -5
boo, there were better candidates to drop than tapia
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 23, 2020 20:15:20 GMT -5
Minimum wage relievers who toss 100 MPH and tunnel their pitches to the edges of the strike zone are a dime a dozen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 23, 2020 23:38:20 GMT -5
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Oct 24, 2020 0:00:52 GMT -5
Jose Urena of the Marlins is a really interesting guy the Sox could pick up for next to nothing and control for 2 years. Starting pitcher with a solid (enough) track record who throws hard, and is also 29. He's tabbed as a non tender candidate but the Sox should jump all over him if they can give up something and nab the rights of him before letting him get non tendered. He could be one of those guys who (could be better than) Martin Perez if the Sox decline that option.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2020 0:35:39 GMT -5
Everyone realizes they're going to need to DFA seven guys just to get the 45/60-day IL guys onto the roster (or do so with the guys on the IL in some cases), right? There are 6 more to go, and that's before the Rule 5 guys. Of the 47 including Tapia, there are like 13 guys, minimum, coming off the roster. Edit: Also, keep in mind they didn't just cut him. They were probably hoping to sneak him through waivers early. Sorry but that's just dumb logic. Tapia is Ayala's ceiling right now and there's no need to rush this. At minimum, he was a trade chip as a pot sweetener, regardless of his future, we just gave him away.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 24, 2020 3:02:24 GMT -5
Everyone realizes they're going to need to DFA seven guys just to get the 45/60-day IL guys onto the roster (or do so with the guys on the IL in some cases), right? There are 6 more to go, and that's before the Rule 5 guys. Of the 47 including Tapia, there are like 13 guys, minimum, coming off the roster. Edit: Also, keep in mind they didn't just cut him. They were probably hoping to sneak him through waivers early. It makes no sense that the guy with the lowest xERA at Statcast (and the 3rd best pERA) who was among the MLB leaders n velocity is the first guy they cut.
I suspect a clubhouse reason.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2020 4:56:37 GMT -5
One unknown here, the last pitch he threw in 2020 was lined off his elbow.
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Post by unitspin on Oct 24, 2020 7:22:25 GMT -5
Hopefully they are adding 3 or 4 bullpen arms to this team bcs taylor, walden, covey and brice are not going to get it done. We have cap space the bullpen should be the first hole to patch.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 24, 2020 8:21:26 GMT -5
I would have dumped one of the bums on the 26 man roster over Tapia. That's a tough one. Decent potential to be a solid reliever.
Pedroia is hopefully DFAed in the offseason opening up another spot. Nothing against him but he hasn't played in 2 years. Last I checked the GM for the Sox was Chaim Bloom and not Don Sweeney. Can't rely on someone to come back after a 2 year layoff and have them take up a valuable roster spot. The money is already sunk. Move on.
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Post by manfred on Oct 24, 2020 11:40:32 GMT -5
I can only assume the Sox felt 4 innings did not make up for a long history of minor league mediocrity. The guy throws gas, but he is 29 and has never put it together. I’m not saying he might not be good for the M’s, but it seems like a calculated risk. He has a career WHIP of almost 1.5 in AAA. And that with surprisingly weak K numbers. I totally get arguing other guys could have gone before him, but I don’t think this will be a difference maker in 2021.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2020 11:53:57 GMT -5
I can only assume the Sox felt 4 innings did not make up for a long history of minor league mediocrity. The guy throws gas, but he is 29 and has never put it together. I’m not saying he might not be good for the M’s, but it seems like a calculated risk. He has a career WHIP of almost 1.5 in AAA. And that with surprisingly weak K numbers. I totally get arguing other guys could have gone before him, but I don’t think this will be a difference maker in 2021. He has an option and is minimum wage. What's to lose ?
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Post by manfred on Oct 24, 2020 12:03:09 GMT -5
I can only assume the Sox felt 4 innings did not make up for a long history of minor league mediocrity. The guy throws gas, but he is 29 and has never put it together. I’m not saying he might not be good for the M’s, but it seems like a calculated risk. He has a career WHIP of almost 1.5 in AAA. And that with surprisingly weak K numbers. I totally get arguing other guys could have gone before him, but I don’t think this will be a difference maker in 2021. He has an option and is minimum wage. What's to lose ? Fair. I’m just saying I won’t lose sleep either way. I suspect they had made a thoughtful decision that he was not important going forward.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2020 12:24:33 GMT -5
I suspect there's something else going on here. Debatable as the last cut but crazy as the first. I mean Covey, Godley, even Ayala ? Don't forget, there's also 6 years of control there.
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Post by manfred on Oct 24, 2020 12:33:20 GMT -5
I suspect there's something else going on here. Debatable as the last cut but crazy as the first. I mean Covey, Godley, even Ayala ? Don't forget, there's also 6 years of control there. I’m not paying super close attention, but since most of those guys are likely going, too, the order strikes me as academic. The only issue that matters is who will survive all the cuts. Everyone on the list for cuts can go now, in a month, whatever.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2020 12:40:53 GMT -5
True but the timing on this is curious, they didn't need to do it now, they chose to do it now. How often do you see clubs making moves before they have to ?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 24, 2020 19:01:32 GMT -5
True but the timing on this is curious, they didn't need to do it now, they chose to do it now. How often do you see clubs making moves before they have to ? Because they're trying to sneak him through maybe? I mean we're talking about a week here.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 24, 2020 19:50:46 GMT -5
Seems like the best time to try to sneak somebody through is when every team is adjusting their rosters not when he's pretty much the only transaction.
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