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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 12, 2021 18:32:52 GMT -5
Interesting question of whether guys who bulked up can revert their quick swings.
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Post by soxfan2021 on Feb 12, 2021 18:33:09 GMT -5
If you guys have been watching Cordero for awhile and know more than Bloom about him then my apologies. Doubt you guys have though. If every argument ends as "Well Bloom knows more than you do, so....." then why have a discussion board? Why not just have a Bloom appreciation thread instead. I mean, of course Bloom knows more than me, you, and everybody else here. That's kind of pointless. It's how he stacks up among his counterparts that matters if you're judging. I mean shouldn't every single Head of a Baseball Ops department of every team be more knowledgeable than us? And I raise this question - not as somebody against the trade or for it. I'm on the fence kind of until I see who the PTBNL are, and even that won't do a helluva lot to persuade me much one way or another - it's not like I know how good those 3 PTBNLs are going to be - I can only go by my rudimentary knowledge of stats and the expertise of the so-called experts of the minor leagues. I think it's fair to question if Cordero is going to be an upgrade from even the average performances Benintendi has given. I'm not willing to dismiss the possibility of Cordero putting it together and being a highly productive player. I get that he's toolsy as hell. There are a lot of toolsy players that aren't good baseball players and guys without the flashy tools that succeed. I don't know if Cordero will go the way of Wily Mo Pena or if there's a breakout that's going to happen or if it's a semi-tease that gets them a level even on what Benintendi has given them since the second half of 2018. I read from the so-called minor league experts, some of which didn't like the Sox picking Yorke in the first round, that Winckowski is a bullpen/back-end starter. Bloom obviously thinks he's more just like he thinks the prospect German from the Yankees is more than a bullpen/back-end starter. I have no idea who's right and who's not. I have no idea how good those PTBNLs will be. Nobody does right now. We don't even know who they are other than they're not at the moment regarded as top prospects but we know those kind of rankings shifts as prospects blossom or bust. I don't think Bloom has had long enough a track record as head of baseball ops to have the cache for me to give him the benefit of the doubt automatically and I sense you want a knee-jerk reaction of if Bloom did it, it must be the right move. That doesn't mean that I won't start giving him the benefit of the doubt if some of his gambles start paying off. I'm quite willing to if it starts to pay off. I'm interested in what he does. A lot of it I wouldn't have done. Other moves I really liked. I get what his ultimate goal is and agree with the premise of it. We'll see how good he is at: rebuilding a team and keeping them somewhat competitive while doing it, how he builds the future core, how he supplements without damaging the future while the team is in go for it mode and how he maintains a team so that it can win year after year without the farm system below going bad despite trades and the lower draft picks. It'll take quite awhile to sort that out. Some phases of that we'll love or hate. He's here for the long-term like Theo was so we'll see how good he is at it. Honestly, I agree with almost everything you said. I just got worked up and got extremely tired of people saying things like 'cordero is a bench player who will never come close to Benintendi'. I think that is an idiotic statement from people who I know haven't even spent more than 5 minutes watching tape on cordero. Will this trade work out? Only time will tell. But some of these comments I'm just so sick of reading.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2021 18:36:38 GMT -5
I don't think he was belittling PTBNLs, but was using the intials in different ways to descibe the range of possible outcomes for them. You then demonstrated he was correct by putting names to the acronyms. Fair enough.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 12, 2021 19:23:40 GMT -5
I really hope that Benintendi is rewarded for understanding his skillset and working to get back to his earlier success. I also believe that the trade works. It's in keeping with Bloom's twofold plan of competing in 2021 while simultaneously rebuilding a very depleted minor league system.
Even before he went into the tank, Benintendi had an issue with left-handed pitching. That reinforces Dunne's take on the value proposition for me. They've got lefty-killers to back Cordero up. The marginal downgrade - if there is one - is very likely to be offset by the acquisition of five players. For myself, it's hard to argue against that.
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Post by greenmonster on Feb 12, 2021 19:36:00 GMT -5
I don't think he was belittling PTBNLs, but was using the intials in different ways to descibe the range of possible outcomes for them. You then demonstrated he was correct by putting names to the acronyms. Thankfully someone got it
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Post by incandenza on Feb 12, 2021 19:38:19 GMT -5
Interesting question of whether guys who bulked up can revert their quick swings. The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is?
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Post by ramireja on Feb 12, 2021 19:51:15 GMT -5
Interesting question of whether guys who bulked up can revert their quick swings. The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is? I'd argue that the Red Sox think they're getting a package that isn't commensurate with Benintendi at low value. It sure seems to me like that Royals are giving up a return based on 2018 Benintendi and not late 2019 or 2020 Benintendi. I understand that the quality of individual prospects coming back isn't great, but its still a package of Franchy Cordero and 4(!) prospects. Not a lot of major leaguers bring back a return of 5 players regardless of quality. We'll have to wait and see on the potential of the PTBNLs but this package could resemble what the Dodgers gave up for Machado.
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Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2021 19:51:33 GMT -5
Interesting question of whether guys who bulked up can revert their quick swings. The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is? Well... and I’m with you... but there is a case to be made that if Beni is effectively giving up on hitting a power ceiling, he is conceding he will never be the guy people had hoped. So they got a guy with far more power ceiling. That is, maybe Bloom *does* buy the story but simply doesn’t think Beni 2018 is his LF of the future?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 12, 2021 20:20:22 GMT -5
Well, those three pizzas in the car better be from Pepes. The two that have been delivered so far are cold Dominos’ pizza. Pepe's is the BEST.....Della Carne please! I’ve always been a Santarpio’s guy.
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Post by unitspin on Feb 12, 2021 20:22:00 GMT -5
My favorite argument on here is Cordero is only 26 he might just not have hit his potential yet. Then at the same time saying benny at 26 is cooked. In a down year he had a 1.8 war cordero's career war is .3, they are the same age. But bloom has never made a bad move in his life so never question anything.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 12, 2021 20:29:31 GMT -5
My favorite argument on here is Cordero is only 26 he might just not have hit his potential yet. Then at the same time saying benny at 26 is cooked. In a down year he had a 1.8 war cordero's career war is .3, they are the same age. But bloom has never made a bad move in his life so never question anything. Benintendi's sprint speed has declined. That's one of the biggest reasons why. He's not the same player he was 2 years ago and it's not like he's a 20 plus homerun bat.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 12, 2021 20:55:27 GMT -5
The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is? Well... and I’m with you... but there is a case to be made that if Beni is effectively giving up on hitting a power ceiling, he is conceding he will never be the guy people had hoped. So they got a guy with far more power ceiling. That is, maybe Bloom *does* buy the story but simply doesn’t think Beni 2018 is his LF of the future? '18 Beni was a 4 WAR player. That's basically Verdugo, and we saw what his trade value was... (Yes, caveats apply to that comparison. But still.)
But admittedly this is getting us back into 'but we don't know who the PTBNLs are' territory.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 12, 2021 21:57:42 GMT -5
Interesting question of whether guys who bulked up can revert their quick swings. The bulking up works for some and ruins others. this was brought up when Benny started having problems on the board.. I can name guys it worked for, Like Brady Anderson, tho it may have been needle assisted and guys bulking up whose career it killed.. Nelson Simmons who was a Tigers top prospect saw 1st hand at both lakeland and Winter Haven in the old FSL and Sparky Anderson himself said bulking up took away all of his quickness and speed. sound familiar?
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Post by Coreno on Feb 12, 2021 22:06:18 GMT -5
My favorite argument on here is Cordero is only 26 he might just not have hit his potential yet. Then at the same time saying benny at 26 is cooked. In a down year he had a 1.8 war cordero's career war is .3, they are the same age. But bloom has never made a bad move in his life so never question anything. On the flip side, we have people complaining that they gave up on Benintendi too soon, but Cordero is a nobody since he hasn't established himself yet.
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Post by trajanacc on Feb 12, 2021 22:42:03 GMT -5
My favorite argument on here is Cordero is only 26 he might just not have hit his potential yet. Then at the same time saying benny at 26 is cooked. In a down year he had a 1.8 war cordero's career war is .3, they are the same age. But bloom has never made a bad move in his life so never question anything. It's fine to question, and of course Bloom isn't perfect and will make some mistakes....but you're not really questioning, you're acting like you're certain he's wrong and you're right when a) you can't see the future b) you're not a professional scout c) you have access to only a small fraction of the information that Bloom has. I'm not saying I think it's a great trade, only time will tell, but I'm not gonna pretend I know better than a GM just because I spent some time on baseball-reference.
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 12, 2021 23:18:17 GMT -5
The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is? Well... and I’m with you... but there is a case to be made that if Beni is effectively giving up on hitting a power ceiling, he is conceding he will never be the guy people had hoped. So they got a guy with far more power ceiling. That is, maybe Bloom *does* buy the story but simply doesn’t think Beni 2018 is his LF of the future? How do the Sox make a decision like this? I can't imagine that Bloom makes it on his own. He must get input from scouts, analytics guys, and the coaching staff, especially Cora. The question: Is Beni a cornerstone piece? Should he be our leftfielder five years from now and should we offer him a long-term contract ($50m?) to lock him up? My guess is that most responses were: ? -- i.e. we're not sure. Maybe he'll regain his form. Or, again: ? -- we doubt it. I can't imagine many people endorsed a long-term signing enthusiastically. So, if you are an organization, what do you do? You can hold onto Beni for two years and see what happens. Maybe you will want to re-sign him after two years, but he will be expensive. Or, you can let him walk with no strings attached or slap a QO on him (but what if he accepts it, and he's a 100 OPS+ guy?). Outcomes do not seem very good if you hold on to him. So, then, do you try to trade him this year or next? The Sox floated his availability a month ago, but the packages were underwhelming, so Bloom was fine with keeping him. But then KC offered Cordero + Lee + 2 PTNLB (i.e. what they will have given up for Beni once the trade is completed), but Bloom held out for Winckowski + one more PTBNL (from the Mets) instead of Lee, who is a very good prospect and can perhaps, by mid-season, platoon with Almora for the Mets in CF. (JBJ would almost certainly be better for them but much more expensive.) Is the package good enough for Beni? Who knows, but the PTBNL from the Mets must be an interesting one (maybe a good young arm like Josh Wolf?). Without Beni, how much weaker are the Sox? We can only guess, but a Renfroe-Cordero platoon has potential -- if Cordero can stay healthy. Right now, I'm all into upside as we look forward, and Bloom has brought in some players (and we also have some rookies) who could blossom this year. I'm eager to see how all of this plays out. The future could be good sooner than most people expect. I'm not happy to see Beni go, but I wasn't optimistic about his future. I hope he plays well in KC.
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Post by unitspin on Feb 13, 2021 7:05:52 GMT -5
My favorite argument on here is Cordero is only 26 he might just not have hit his potential yet. Then at the same time saying benny at 26 is cooked. In a down year he had a 1.8 war cordero's career war is .3, they are the same age. But bloom has never made a bad move in his life so never question anything. On the flip side, we have people complaining that they gave up on Benintendi too soon, but Cordero is a nobody since he hasn't established himself yet. 100% everyone has their own opinions on it. At the end of the day we will know at seasons end whether they sold too fast on benny or not. I have no problem admitting I was on the wrong side of an opinion but it seems others egos do not allow them be wrong on this board.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 13, 2021 9:06:18 GMT -5
Bloom does ask a lot for Sox Nation to be patient. Every deal he's made has been a grind it seems.
The Mookie and now Benintendi deals took all their respective off-seasons to do. We don't know when this Benintendi trade will be completed.
Bloom hasn't made a splashy free agent signing yet. Everything has been planned for two years ahead starting when he got here. I love his plan personally, but grind is the right word here when it's come to 2020 and 2021 with the Sox. 2020 was especially bad with no minor league season and no bright spots seemingly to look forward to. You had the exhibition games in Pawtucket, but that wasn't anything substantial. Maybe it was substantial for some development of the top prospects, time will tell.
None of this is a mark against Bloom. He's got a plan and he's sticking to it the right way, but frustrating painfully slow way. I still think he has a chance to be a really special GM. Next off-season will be his true test. The team should be closer to being a true title threat in 2022.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 13, 2021 9:13:29 GMT -5
The time to deal Benintendi was this off-season. You'd run a real risk at trading him at the trade deadline (slow start, injuries). A team like the Royals especially loves the 2 years of control to see if he fits with their organization or if they should trade him later, also.
He had enough value to go, and I think Bloom is going to win this deal eventually for Benintendi's two years of control. Whether the Royals extend Benintendi beyond that, makes no difference to the Sox. Benintendi wasn't getting extended here, so the value to the Sox was the two years. Hopefully Bloom picks the right prospects with good upside.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 13, 2021 9:38:55 GMT -5
I think the reality of the PTBNL in trades is that it is normally the rule that it is a throw in filler type piece so that is what most think first. When in reality within this trade the PTBNL prospects are most likely the meat of the deal and could end up being a great trade with some luck. For the record I am still a Benny fan and expect he will reach the ceiling that many of us here hoped he would.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 13, 2021 10:14:03 GMT -5
Interesting question of whether guys who bulked up can revert their quick swings. The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is? Three possibilities. the first very almost certain and the last two worth considering.
1) Remember that Cordero has 3 years of control left and Benny 2. The closer Cordero is to Benny as a player, the better the trade looks. They must have the gap as smaller than outside observers think.
Does this make sense? Assuming that Cordero's big decline in sprint speed (from elite to merely good) last year was injury-related, he's still a plus defensive CFer. No one in the press even mentioned his defense when the trade was made, but he was +30 R/150 in a SSS in his pre-rookie season. And of course you only make the trade if that's more than an assumption. If Cordero can be 3/4th the player Benny is, the extra year of control puts you ahead in the trade and you end up buying four prospects for the $1.8M you're sending the Royals.
I have to first state that I loved Lou Merloni as a player and will never forgive Jimy Williams for not giving him the shot at SS he deserved. But Lou on Twitter is demonstrating why he's not working for someone's F.O. He jumped on the demonstrably wrong notion that Marwin filled the LHB on the bench need (which I just posted about in the FA thread) ... and then he tweeted that everyone was overrating Cordero's value in the trade. Which (as I just argued) is backwards. You make trades to win them. There's a chance that none of the four guys you get ever does much in MLB, but you can still win the trade if Cordero is a good player, a solid first-division starter.
I believe they think he is. I suspect that, like Pivetta, he was on the Ray's carefully constructed upside-acquisition list, which I am not too shameless to call the Arozarena Report.
2) The historical track record of guys who had two years like Benny's 2018 / 2019 at his age is not good. I couldn't find a single guy who ever came back to their age 23 performance after putting numbers like Benny did at age 24; I think I went back to the start of the DH era. And I did that mini-study before last year!
Now, I had reason to believe that Benny was better in 2019 than his numbers. I still believe that. But still, this is worth considering.
3) They know more about his makeup than we do. Did he do the bulk-up thing without consulting them, or even against their recommendation? That he learned his lesson is good, but if he had to learn his lesson even after you told him "not a good idea" -- that's a different story.
Finally, getting a chance to pick your PTBNL's the way they do is unusual, and I think almost certainly means you can do better than normal. It's not that it makes up for the lack of scouting eyeballs last year; it's better. This is especially true given the fact that working on skills and physicality seems to be not nearly as bad (relative to seeing game action) as people feared.
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Post by manfred on Feb 13, 2021 10:26:01 GMT -5
The thing that doesn't sit quite right with me is that it feels like there's a missing piece of information here. Because everything in this quote makes sense, and it fits with how Benintendi looked in 2019 and the data, and that makes it seem pretty plausible that he could get back to his 2018 form just by returning to his old approach; but then if this is the story why on earth would Bloom sell low on him? And if Bloom doesn't buy this story, what does he think the deal is? Three possibilities. the first very almost certain and the last two worth considering.
1) Remember that Cordero has 3 years of control left and Benny 2. The closer Cordero is to Benny as a player, the better the trade looks. They must have the gap as smaller than outside observers think.
Does this make sense? Assuming that Cordero's big decline in sprint speed (from elite to merely good) last year was injury-related, he's still a plus defensive CFer. No one in the press even mentioned his defense when the trade was made, but he was +30 R/150 in a SSS in his pre-rookie season. And of course you only make the trade if that's more than an assumption. If Cordero can be 3/4th the player Benny is, the extra year of control puts you ahead in the trade and you end up buying four prospects for the $1.8M you're sending the Royals.
I have to first state that I loved Lou Merloni as a player and will never forgive Jimy Williams for not giving him the shot at SS he deserved. But Lou on Twitter is demonstrating why he's not working for someone's F.O. He jumped on the demonstrably wrong notion that Marwin filled the LHB on the bench need (which I just posted about in the FA thread) ... and then he tweeted that everyone was overrating Cordero's value in the trade. Which (as I just argued) is backwards. You make trades to win them. There's a chance that none of the four guys you get ever does much in MLB, but you can still win the trade if Cordero is a good player, a solid first-division starter.
I believe they think he is. I suspect that, like Pivetta, he was on the Ray's carefully constructed upside-acquisition list, which I am not too shameless to call the Arozarena Report.
2) The historical track record of guys who had two years like Benny's 2018 / 2019 at his age is not good. I couldn't find a single guy who ever came back to their age 23 performance after putting numbers like Benny did at age 24; I think I went back to the start of the DH era. And I did that mini-study before last year!
Now, I had reason to believe that Benny was better in 2019 than his numbers. I still believe that. But still, this is worth considering.
3) They know more about his makeup than we do. Did he do the bulk-up thing without consulting them, or even against their recommendation? That he learned his lesson is good, but if he had to learn his lesson even after you told him "not a good idea" -- that's a different story.
Finally, getting a chance to pick your PTBNL's the way they do is unusual, and I think almost certainly means you can do better than normal. It's not that it makes up for the lack of scouting eyeballs last year; it's better. This is especially true given the fact that working on skills and physicality seems to be not nearly as bad (relative to seeing game action) as people feared.
They *don’t* have to think the gap is close if Cordero is not the heart of the deal. I mean that from a neutral stance. They could just as easily see him as a one-year trial balloon *if* there was a different purpose. If they expect to get a good haul of PTBNL, they would be fine getting a JAG outfielder to fill a soot until they made another move. Your rationale assumes he was a primary part of the package, which we actually can’t say for sure yet (as trade defenders have been screaming). I’m not saying you can’t be right ultimately that they don’t see a huge gap. But you are predicating that on a leap that this trade was *focused* on Cordero, when he might actually have been a piece. And... here is the other thing. If the Sox think Beni is done, peaked whatever... then if they see the gap as small, it would mean they don’t see Cordero as especially good! So it is hard to argue they see Cordero as a) good; b) a great get because Beni is shot; c) only a slight step down from that shot player. One thing is clear: this is a trade with about a wide a range of outcomes as a trade can have. A young first round pick looking to rebound; a physical specimen; a bunch of PTBNL. The only way to know any more than we do is to suit them up.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 13, 2021 11:30:48 GMT -5
Not figured out really yet what it is. Not a salary dump, which some thought before he was moved trading him away it would be since they are still paying half his 6m salary and the sort of replacement (Cordero) in the deal is making around 1m. nobody has any real clue as to either the names, or quality of the PTBNL players coming back, only hoping that they will be of the same class, or better than they received from San Diego and Philly this past season, but no guarantees of course since the guys, or 2 might end up being nothing more than organization filler.
The kind of deal fans can look at and just hope the PTBNL kids are worthwhile. I, for one wasn't and am still not impressed with Cordero. Hoping reason they agreed to accept him was because the list of kids they had a choice from later on was worth it.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2021 11:35:42 GMT -5
1) Remember that Cordero has 3 years of control left and Benny 2. The closer Cordero is to Benny as a player, the better the trade looks. They must have the gap as smaller than outside observers think.
Does this make sense? Assuming that Cordero's big decline in sprint speed (from elite to merely good) last year was injury-related, he's still a plus defensive CFer. No one in the press even mentioned his defense when the trade was made, but he was +30 R/150 in a SSS in his pre-rookie season. And of course you only make the trade if that's more than an assumption. If Cordero can be 3/4th the player Benny is, the extra year of control puts you ahead in the trade and you end up buying four prospects for the $1.8M you're sending the Royals.
[...]
This is interesting, and I hope you're right, but I have not seen any indication that anyone else recently has viewed Cordero as a plus CF. And it's not quite true that "no one in the press even mentioned his defense when the trade was made." e.g. the Globe story quoting Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, who managed Cordero in the Dominican Winter League this year: “I don’t project him as a center fielder even though he has good enough speed and a good enough arm,” said Jauss. “He came to us with the track record in the Dominican of not being a dependable left fielder. That, by no means, was what he was this year. “ He was a very dependable left fielder, and in the Dominican, most of those parks are big and they are tough to play. [Defense] is not going to keep him from being an everyday left fielder.” .... “He has the ceiling of a Troy O’Leary,” said Jauss www.bostonglobe.com/2021/02/12/sports/scouting-red-sox-outfielder-franchy-cordero-huge-potential-huge-questions/This writer says he will play LF and cites Bloom as endorsing that view, as well as cautiously saying "he has been" a guy who can play all three positions: 'Cordero has seen most of his playing time in center field, with 344 innings over four seasons, plus another 207 innings in left. He will likely be asked to play left field [this is the writer, not Bloom] in Boston, with Alex Verdugo in center and Hunter Renfroe in right field. “ He’s a very different type of player from Benny, but I think he can step right into that role,” said Bloom ["that role" seems to mean Benny's LF?]. “Obviously, we need to get to know him and see exactly the role that he can play, but historically, he’s been a guy who can play all three outfield positions.”' boston.cbslocal.com/2021/02/11/franchy-cordero-red-sox-andrew-benintendi-trade-mlb/Contrast Bloom's language when he signed Renfroe: "He’s a really good defensive outfielder" nesn.com/2020/12/why-chaim-bloom-is-really-excited-about-red-soxs-hunter-renfroe-signing/
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2021 11:47:10 GMT -5
Three possibilities. the first very almost certain and the last two worth considering.
1) Remember that Cordero has 3 years of control left and Benny 2. The closer Cordero is to Benny as a player, the better the trade looks. They must have the gap as smaller than outside observers think. Does this make sense? Assuming that Cordero's big decline in sprint speed (from elite to merely good) last year was injury-related, he's still a plus defensive CFer. No one in the press even mentioned his defense when the trade was made, but he was +30 R/150 in a SSS in his pre-rookie season. And of course you only make the trade if that's more than an assumption. If Cordero can be 3/4th the player Benny is, the extra year of control puts you ahead in the trade and you end up buying four prospects for the $1.8M you're sending the Royals.
I have to first state that I loved Lou Merloni as a player and will never forgive Jimy Williams for not giving him the shot at SS he deserved. But Lou on Twitter is demonstrating why he's not working for someone's F.O. He jumped on the demonstrably wrong notion that Marwin filled the LHB on the bench need (which I just posted about in the FA thread) ... and then he tweeted that everyone was overrating Cordero's value in the trade. Which (as I just argued) is backwards. You make trades to win them. There's a chance that none of the four guys you get ever does much in MLB, but you can still win the trade if Cordero is a good player, a solid first-division starter.
I believe they think he is. I suspect that, like Pivetta, he was on the Ray's carefully constructed upside-acquisition list, which I am not too shameless to call the Arozarena Report.
2) The historical track record of guys who had two years like Benny's 2018 / 2019 at his age is not good. I couldn't find a single guy who ever came back to their age 23 performance after putting numbers like Benny did at age 24; I think I went back to the start of the DH era. And I did that mini-study before last year! Now, I had reason to believe that Benny was better in 2019 than his numbers. I still believe that. But still, this is worth considering. 3) They know more about his makeup than we do. Did he do the bulk-up thing without consulting them, or even against their recommendation? That he learned his lesson is good, but if he had to learn his lesson even after you told him "not a good idea" -- that's a different story. Finally, getting a chance to pick your PTBNL's the way they do is unusual, and I think almost certainly means you can do better than normal. It's not that it makes up for the lack of scouting eyeballs last year; it's better. This is especially true given the fact that working on skills and physicality seems to be not nearly as bad (relative to seeing game action) as people feared.
They *don’t* have to think the gap is close if Cordero is not the heart of the deal. I mean that from a neutral stance. They could just as easily see him as a one-year trial balloon *if* there was a different purpose. If they expect to get a good haul of PTBNL, they would be fine getting a JAG outfielder to fill a soot until they made another move. Your rationale assumes he was a primary part of the package, which we actually can’t say for sure yet (as trade defenders have been screaming). I’m not saying you can’t be right ultimately that they don’t see a huge gap. But you are predicating that on a leap that this trade was *focused* on Cordero, when he might actually have been a piece. And... here is the other thing. If the Sox think Beni is done, peaked whatever... then if they see the gap as small, it would mean they don’t see Cordero as especially good! So it is hard to argue they see Cordero as a) good; b) a great get because Beni is shot; c) only a slight step down from that shot player. One thing is clear: this is a trade with about a wide a range of outcomes as a trade can have. A young first round pick looking to rebound; a physical specimen; a bunch of PTBNL. The only way to know any more than we do is to suit them up. I think the truth lies in the middle as far as I would think that Bloom was probably equally intrigued by Cordero's tools and untapped potential as he is about the prospect (Winckowski) and the 3 PTBLs he can add to the farm sytem. I don't think it's he took on Cordero to get the prospects nor Cordero is the centerpiece of the trade and the prospects are happy throw-ins. Basically I think he's trying to hit the way the Indians did when they received 5 players from the Phillies for Von Hayes about 40 years ago. One of those young players hit - it was Julio Franco, who played and hit well until he was about 100. I think that Bloom figures that even Benintendi's ceiling is capped - as an above average player who he doesn't plan to extend once his deal was up. So he figures that if he gets 5 prospects for him - and yes I'm loosely including 27 year old Cordero as a further along prospect because the guy only has 350 ABs or whatever in the majors, if just one of them provides the value over their tenure that Benintendi did during his, he at least breaks even but more likely the payoff comes when the Sox are looking to seriously contend as opposed to now where they hope to make the wild card with a few good breaks. But if more than 1 hits, then he really profits from this deal. Say Cordero is useful and just one of the PTBNs develops into something really useful. Maybe Winckowski becomes a contributor? However it falls, the odds start to stack up in Bloom's favor. I think he has set it up so there's a better chance of that than they actually miss out on Benintendi two seasons as a huge difference maker and none of the players he gets can provide those two seasons worth of value - he'd have had to have chosen his players very poorly for that to happen. It could, and if it does, it'll tell you about his inability to judge talent, but hopefully that's not the case.. Hopefully this tells you about his ability to judge talent if the Sox hit on these PTBNLs and/or Cordero blossoms or even Winckowski proves to be more than a marginal starter or reliever.
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