SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
|
Post by dirtdog on Feb 12, 2021 11:12:09 GMT -5
A couple things for me: 87 projected wins? I dont see it right now, too many question marks on the mound IMO. I see more like 75 to 80. Regarding Cordero, a lot of metrics being thrown around but I am with Manfred, 27 is old in the majors to hit your stride, but hey I have been wrong before. Finally, Bloom sure seems to have a thing for castoff utility players. So which specific projections is fangraps too high on? ERod's 2.5 WAR? Richards' 1.9? Nothing there looks crazy to me. Let alone anything that would amount to a 7-12 win overestimation, which is pretty huge.
I'd also ask which AL pitching staffs look better, other than the Yankees? You might give the White Sox or Jays or Twins a marginal edge, but not by much; in any event, as strange as it is to say, I think the Red Sox have one of the 5 best starting rotations in the AL.
I know spring is coming and everybody wants to put a positive spin on things but my eyes and 50 plus years of watching baseball takes a look at the current construction of the roster and sees a 500 or less baseball team, metrics be damned. Too many question marks, too many things have to go right, too many have to perform better than last year, etc. Just like my eyes tell me the Braves are the team to watch this year and no I am not a closet Braves fan.
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Feb 12, 2021 11:24:34 GMT -5
So which specific projections is fangraps too high on? ERod's 2.5 WAR? Richards' 1.9? Nothing there looks crazy to me. Let alone anything that would amount to a 7-12 win overestimation, which is pretty huge.
I'd also ask which AL pitching staffs look better, other than the Yankees? You might give the White Sox or Jays or Twins a marginal edge, but not by much; in any event, as strange as it is to say, I think the Red Sox have one of the 5 best starting rotations in the AL.
I know spring is coming and everybody wants to put a positive spin on things but my eyes and 50 plus years of watching baseball takes a look at the current construction of the roster and sees a 500 or less baseball team, metrics be damned. Too many question marks, too many things have to go right, too many have to perform better than last year, etc. Just like my eyes tell me the Braves are the team to watch this year and no I am not a closet Braves fan. Spot on. Too many things have to fall in the red sox favor for them to be a playoff team.
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Feb 12, 2021 11:30:38 GMT -5
I'm certain you won't put money on cordero having a better year then Benny. If your interested let me know, I like free money. You said career. Bets involve probability not certainty. Your original statement is not worth defending on any level. What's your opinion on the trade? I always see ppl comment on this board with no opinions to something they are commenting on. Seems typical of some of the posters on here.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Feb 12, 2021 11:34:43 GMT -5
So which specific projections is fangraps too high on? ERod's 2.5 WAR? Richards' 1.9? Nothing there looks crazy to me. Let alone anything that would amount to a 7-12 win overestimation, which is pretty huge.
I'd also ask which AL pitching staffs look better, other than the Yankees? You might give the White Sox or Jays or Twins a marginal edge, but not by much; in any event, as strange as it is to say, I think the Red Sox have one of the 5 best starting rotations in the AL.
I know spring is coming and everybody wants to put a positive spin on things but my eyes and 50 plus years of watching baseball takes a look at the current construction of the roster and sees a 500 or less baseball team, metrics be damned. Too many question marks, too many things have to go right, too many have to perform better than last year, etc. Just like my eyes tell me the Braves are the team to watch this year and no I am not a closet Braves fan. I'm not really talking about metrics (WAR is just shorthand to talk about projections). I'm just asking: who on the team will do so much worse that they'll undershoot their projection by 7-12 games? And: which teams in the AL do you think are set up to be better?
It's not that I necessarily think your eyes can't be trusted; I'm just curious what you see specifically that makes you so bearish on this team relative to the rest of the league.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 12, 2021 12:00:38 GMT -5
You said career. Bets involve probability not certainty. Your original statement is not worth defending on any level. What's your opinion on the trade? I always see ppl comment on this board with no opinions to something they are commenting on. Seems typical of some of the posters on here. 1. "We need to see who the PTBNLs are before we judge" is an opinion. 2. No opinion>>>bad opinion.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Feb 12, 2021 13:35:59 GMT -5
Lots of talk about PTBNL...Thought I would have some fun with a few alternate definitions: - Player That Boston Never Loves
- Player Thats Bad N Lousy
- Piece That Bloom Never Leverages
- Player That Becomes Nasty & Legitimate
- Player Thats Bound tobe National Legend
|
|
|
Post by jayhawk on Feb 12, 2021 14:02:36 GMT -5
In keeping with the idea of having some fun with the PTBNL...
Per Gammons, there is a list of 4 players from the lower levels of the KC org from which the Red Sox will be able to select 2.
Per Alex Speier, it is unlikely the 2 prospects would land in the Sox top 10, at least initially.
With this criteria in mind, which player are you most hoping is on the list?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2021 14:54:25 GMT -5
Lots of talk about PTBNL...Thought I would have some fun with a few alternate definitions: - Player That Boston Never Loves
- Player Thats Bad N Lousy
- Piece That Bloom Never Leverages
- Player That Becomes Nasty & Legitimate
- Player Thats Bound tobe National Legend
Michael Brantley Moises Alou Scott Brosius Jesse Orosco Trea Turner Jeremy Bonderman Scott Podsednik Coco Crisp Marco Scutaro Jason Schmidt Gio González Ted Lilly Craig Wilson Ivan Calderone Marco Hernandez Josh Taylor Jacob Wallace Jim Willoughby Mario Guererro Shane Ba, mlb.com #90 prospect Shoeless Joe Jackson David Ortiz
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Feb 12, 2021 15:45:53 GMT -5
Lots of talk about PTBNL...Thought I would have some fun with a few alternate definitions: - Player That Boston Never Loves
- Player Thats Bad N Lousy
- Piece That Bloom Never Leverages
- Player That Becomes Nasty & Legitimate
- Player Thats Bound tobe National Legend
Michael Brantley Moises Alou Scott Brosius Jesse Orosco Trea Turner Jeremy Bonderman Scott Podsednik Coco Crisp Marco Scutaro Jason Schmidt Gio González Ted Lilly Craig Wilson Ivan Calderone Marco Hernandez Josh Taylor Jacob Wallace Jim Willoughby Mario Guererro Shane Ba, mlb.com #90 prospect Shoeless Joe Jackson David Ortiz What is your point??? I was trying to have some fun with the acronym. Are you trying to say that you like "Player That Becomes Nasty & Legitimate"?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 12, 2021 15:54:10 GMT -5
recency bias? Bad on me I guess for believing what I was told when Bloom was hired that this wasn’t a long-term rebuild. Meanwhile the team has gone from a one or two year turnaround to a solid 4-5year rebuild. Not what was advertised. I’m not big on historical revisionism, never mind the recency bias. on what basis is this a one or two year turnaround? The team doesn’t want to go over the tax threshold (much like the Yankees) and they have major pitching questions with Sale, Rodriguez, and Evoldi. If those starters don’t come back strong (and no one knows the answer) then this is a longer rebuild by default. On everything the ownership group, Kennedy and Bloom said last year. I seem to recall a specific quote (though I am not going to fish for it now) saying something to the effect of "Boston is not a place where you can do a long rebuild...We see this as a competitive team that will be contending for a championship in one to two years."
|
|
|
Post by congusgambler33 on Feb 12, 2021 15:56:28 GMT -5
I can say with some degree of certainty that Benny will have a far better career then Cordero. Just looking at past numbers your golden goose would have to go on a 3-5 year tear and benny do absolutely nothing for it to be even on the sheets. Benny has a 9.8 career war, what does cordero have? Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player. I'll take the potential everytime. I don’t think you fully grasp the meaning of the word “certainty.” More like "opinionty".
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2021 on Feb 12, 2021 16:01:07 GMT -5
you say yours like its a fact, which it is not. and you, along with every other person crying on this thread, are not contributing anything of value to this conversation because it is impossible to know if this deal is good or not. you literally cant know at this point. I can say with some degree of certainty that Benny will have a far better career then Cordero. Just looking at past numbers your golden goose would have to go on a 3-5 year tear and benny do absolutely nothing for it to be even on the sheets. Benny has a 9.8 career war, what does cordero have? Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player. I'll take the potential everytime. I mean to me its absolutely mindblowing the amount of people who think they know more than Bloom. How many hours of video have you watched on cordero? Has had to be quite a lot with the way you have been talking about him. It's like no one in baseball has ever figured it out at 26 years old.
|
|
|
Post by congusgambler33 on Feb 12, 2021 16:05:39 GMT -5
I think we should make a lot of trades of PTBNL's just to drive this site crazy.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2021 on Feb 12, 2021 16:08:39 GMT -5
I think we should make a lot of trades of PTBNL's just to drive this site crazy. Lol me too. Thing is I see so many people on twitter non stop complaining how PTBNL's are nothing. These aren't normal PTBNL lol these guys would be named under normal circumstances the year before.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 12, 2021 16:09:00 GMT -5
In keeping with the idea of having some fun with the PTBNL... Per Gammons, there is a list of 4 players from the lower levels of the KC org from which the Red Sox will be able to select 2. Per Alex Speier, it is unlikely the 2 prospects would land in the Sox top 10, at least initially. With this criteria in mind, which player are you most hoping is on the list? MJ Melendez Catcher, Ben Hernandez RHP, Tyler Gentry OF I will admit that's likely expecting too much, as they are ranked 12, 15 and 18 in the system. The better prospect should come from the Mets.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Feb 12, 2021 16:16:35 GMT -5
In keeping with the idea of having some fun with the PTBNL... Per Gammons, there is a list of 4 players from the lower levels of the KC org from which the Red Sox will be able to select 2. Per Alex Speier, it is unlikely the 2 prospects would land in the Sox top 10, at least initially. With this criteria in mind, which player are you most hoping is on the list? MJ Melendez Catcher, Ben Hernandez RHP, Tyler Gentry OF I’m a sucker for 65 grade changeups, give me Benny Boy! Noah Murdock has an interesting profile. 6’8 string bean with good stuff that’s had TJ. Alec Marsh too
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 12, 2021 16:57:52 GMT -5
you say yours like its a fact, which it is not. and you, along with every other person crying on this thread, are not contributing anything of value to this conversation because it is impossible to know if this deal is good or not. you literally cant know at this point. I can say with some degree of certainty that Benny will have a far better career then Cordero. Just looking at past numbers your golden goose would have to go on a 3-5 year tear and benny do absolutely nothing for it to be even on the sheets. Benny has a 9.8 career war, what does cordero have? Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player. I'll take the potential everytime. So much of the logic here is hilariously backwards. First, you say Benny will have a better career than Cordero, and talking about past numbers. But why do past numbers matter for evaluating this trade? What matters is how they play next year and the year beyond, etc. By that logic, Bloom should be doing whatever he can to trade for Pujols. Because I can say with some degree of certainty that Pujols will have a far better career than anyone on the Red Sox now. See what I did there? Also, if you really want to take potential, then there should be no difference in your mind between Benintendi and Cordero. Given some of his peripherals/batted ball info, and the loud tools, I would say they have pretty similar upside, with Cordero's arguably higher given Benny's athleticism decline. Benny represents floor and fond memories, but if you really value potential then that shouldn't matter at all to you. Also, "Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player" is pretty much as clear proof as you can get that you're not interested in looking at this in an intelligent manner, just cherrypicking bits and pieces to fit your pre-conceived narrative.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 12, 2021 17:10:12 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2021 on Feb 12, 2021 17:10:33 GMT -5
I can say with some degree of certainty that Benny will have a far better career then Cordero. Just looking at past numbers your golden goose would have to go on a 3-5 year tear and benny do absolutely nothing for it to be even on the sheets. Benny has a 9.8 career war, what does cordero have? Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player. I'll take the potential everytime. So much of the logic here is hilariously backwards. First, you say Benny will have a better career than Cordero, and talking about past numbers. But why do past numbers matter for evaluating this trade? What matters is how they play next year and the year beyond, etc. By that logic, Bloom should be doing whatever he can to trade for Pujols. Because I can say with some degree of certainty that Pujols will have a far better career than anyone on the Red Sox now. See what I did there? Also, if you really want to take potential, then there should be no difference in your mind between Benintendi and Cordero. Given some of his peripherals/batted ball info, and the loud tools, I would say they have pretty similar upside, with Cordero's arguably higher given Benny's athleticism decline. Benny represents floor and fond memories, but if you really value potential then that shouldn't matter at all to you. Also, "Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player" is pretty much as clear proof as you can get that you're not interested in looking at this in an intelligent manner, just cherrypicking bits and pieces to fit your pre-conceived narrative. This exactly^
|
|
|
Post by unitspin on Feb 12, 2021 17:30:58 GMT -5
So much of the logic here is hilariously backwards. First, you say Benny will have a better career than Cordero, and talking about past numbers. But why do past numbers matter for evaluating this trade? What matters is how they play next year and the year beyond, etc. By that logic, Bloom should be doing whatever he can to trade for Pujols. Because I can say with some degree of certainty that Pujols will have a far better career than anyone on the Red Sox now. See what I did there? Also, if you really want to take potential, then there should be no difference in your mind between Benintendi and Cordero. Given some of his peripherals/batted ball info, and the loud tools, I would say they have pretty similar upside, with Cordero's arguably higher given Benny's athleticism decline. Benny represents floor and fond memories, but if you really value potential then that shouldn't matter at all to you. Also, "Benny is a bounce back candidate and cordero is a bench player" is pretty much as clear proof as you can get that you're not interested in looking at this in an intelligent manner, just cherrypicking bits and pieces to fit your pre-conceived narrative. This exactly^ That's great so two fellas that like cordero over Benny I'll see ya in September.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2021 on Feb 12, 2021 17:43:18 GMT -5
That's great so two fellas that like cordero over Benny I'll see ya in September. Hahahaha. Did we say that? You do know there are 4 other pieces coming in the trade right? It's not a one for one. And by the metrics I would say Cordero has a higher potential, yes. It's just comical to me that you think yourself (I'll give you a minute of highlights watching tape on Cordero tops?), thinks you are more knowledgeable on the subject than Bloom.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2021 on Feb 12, 2021 17:44:49 GMT -5
That's great so two fellas that like cordero over Benny I'll see ya in September. If you guys have been watching Cordero for awhile and know more than Bloom about him then my apologies. Doubt you guys have though.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
|
Post by jimoh on Feb 12, 2021 17:46:52 GMT -5
Michael Brantley Moises Alou Scott Brosius Jesse Orosco Trea Turner Jeremy Bonderman Scott Podsednik Coco Crisp Marco Scutaro Jason Schmidt Gio González Ted Lilly Craig Wilson Ivan Calderone Marco Hernandez Josh Taylor Jacob Wallace Jim Willoughby Mario Guererro Shane Ba, mlb.com #90 prospect Shoeless Joe Jackson David Ortiz What is your point??? I was trying to have some fun with the acronym. Are you trying to say that you like "Player That Becomes Nasty & Legitimate"? You don't see that I was making fun of you for belittling the PTBNLs? Edit: which was I now see a poor reading of your post
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 12, 2021 18:07:52 GMT -5
That's great so two fellas that like cordero over Benny I'll see ya in September. If you guys have been watching Cordero for awhile and know more than Bloom about him then my apologies. Doubt you guys have though. If every argument ends as "Well Bloom knows more than you do, so....." then why have a discussion board? Why not just have a Bloom appreciation thread instead. I mean, of course Bloom knows more than me, you, and everybody else here. That's kind of pointless. It's how he stacks up among his counterparts that matters if you're judging. I mean shouldn't every single Head of a Baseball Ops department of every team be more knowledgeable than us? And I raise this question - not as somebody against the trade or for it. I'm on the fence kind of until I see who the PTBNL are, and even that won't do a helluva lot to persuade me much one way or another - it's not like I know how good those 3 PTBNLs are going to be - I can only go by my rudimentary knowledge of stats and the expertise of the so-called experts of the minor leagues. I think it's fair to question if Cordero is going to be an upgrade from even the average performances Benintendi has given. I'm not willing to dismiss the possibility of Cordero putting it together and being a highly productive player. I get that he's toolsy as hell. There are a lot of toolsy players that aren't good baseball players and guys without the flashy tools that succeed. I don't know if Cordero will go the way of Wily Mo Pena or if there's a breakout that's going to happen or if it's a semi-tease that gets them a level even on what Benintendi has given them since the second half of 2018. I read from the so-called minor league experts, some of which didn't like the Sox picking Yorke in the first round, that Winckowski is a bullpen/back-end starter. Bloom obviously thinks he's more just like he thinks the prospect German from the Yankees is more than a bullpen/back-end starter. I have no idea who's right and who's not. I have no idea how good those PTBNLs will be. Nobody does right now. We don't even know who they are other than they're not at the moment regarded as top prospects but we know those kind of rankings shifts as prospects blossom or bust. I don't think Bloom has had long enough a track record as head of baseball ops to have the cache for me to give him the benefit of the doubt automatically and I sense you want a knee-jerk reaction of if Bloom did it, it must be the right move. That doesn't mean that I won't start giving him the benefit of the doubt if some of his gambles start paying off. I'm quite willing to if it starts to pay off. I'm interested in what he does. A lot of it I wouldn't have done. Other moves I really liked. I get what his ultimate goal is and agree with the premise of it. We'll see how good he is at: rebuilding a team and keeping them somewhat competitive while doing it, how he builds the future core, how he supplements without damaging the future while the team is in go for it mode and how he maintains a team so that it can win year after year without the farm system below going bad despite trades and the lower draft picks. It'll take quite awhile to sort that out. Some phases of that we'll love or hate. He's here for the long-term like Theo was so we'll see how good he is at it.
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 12, 2021 18:17:19 GMT -5
I don't think he was belittling PTBNLs, but was using the intials in different ways to descibe the range of possible outcomes for them. You then demonstrated he was correct by putting names to the acronyms.
|
|
|