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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by bcsox on Feb 16, 2021 18:30:37 GMT -5
Eric: Again, your posts are well thought out and great. I read everything Keith Law puts out and one of his theories that always I always seemed to be at odds with is dealing with the term "Clutch". He doesnt believe there is any such thing as being "clutch" in baseball. My problem with it unfortunately not the numbers or the math, but what I saw. I know statistic analysis is favored in a lot of places including this board, but I just cant imagine after what I saw from Papi, and guys like Jeter who just seemed to consistently produce in the big moments, and to the contrary guys like Kersahw and Price who were maligned for years for pitching worse in critical games than they did in regular ones. I guess my long statement and question is how would you oppose Keith Law's suggestion that there is no such thing as clutch? What got me thinking was your reference to Marwin Gonzalez's clutch hitting. thank you.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,637
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Post by cdj on Feb 16, 2021 18:40:20 GMT -5
Let’s play the fun speculation game, I say Miguel Rojas
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 16, 2021 19:17:04 GMT -5
I think it's worth mentioning what Keith Law said about Durran versus what people on this board have said after seeing him more and having access to more information. Law is projecting what he could become based on tools, people like Chris and Ian are telling you what he currently is. I respectfully but completely disagree with this characterization (also, to be clear, if you're referring to the website, it's a lot more than the forum...). We're doing the same thing Law is. I know you didn't mean it in a bad way or anything, so don't take this as me being upset - definitely not at all! - but I disagree with the characterization. Honestly? I think he's got it really wrong and have no idea where he got some of this information. I've never seen Duran described as better than average, and usually worse than that, and he calls him a plus defender right now. That's completely news to me and it was news to scouts we talk to when that ranking came out.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 16, 2021 19:56:35 GMT -5
I think it's worth mentioning what Keith Law said about Durran versus what people on this board have said after seeing him more and having access to more information. Law is projecting what he could become based on tools, people like Chris and Ian are telling you what he currently is. I respectfully but completely disagree with this characterization (also, to be clear, if you're referring to the website, it's a lot more than the forum...). We're doing the same thing Law is. I know you didn't mean it in a bad way or anything, so don't take this as me being upset - definitely not at all! - but I disagree with the characterization. Honestly? I think he's got it really wrong and have no idea where he got some of this information. I've never seen Duran described as better than average, and usually worse than that, and he calls him a plus defender right now. That's completely news to me and it was news to scouts we talk to when that ranking came out. My post comes off wrong, that's what I get for doing a quick post. It was meant to show how different reports can be, not that you guys do things differently. Just the opposite you do what Law does yet have much more information. Thus not all reports are equal and I'd go by this site over Keith Law. You guys see Duran much more in person, talk with the team more, etc.
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Post by lennsakata on Feb 16, 2021 21:45:41 GMT -5
Let’s play the fun speculation game, I say Miguel Rojas Garrett Cooper has been mentioned as a possible piece To be moved after they signed Adam Duvall for some reason. Probably signed Duvall to be able to move Cooper since he has some value
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 17, 2021 2:22:06 GMT -5
The one guy who actually watched Duran at the ATF and then responded publically was the manager McMillon, himself an outfielder in his playing days. He was very impressed with the hitting - everyone was.
On the other hand he sounded like he was auditioning for the State Department when asked about the fielding. He did make it easy to read between the lines, though. Duran is not an above average fielder, not right now anyway. I do not know where Law got his report, but I've got to trust the eyeballs of record on this, and that's McMillon.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 17, 2021 2:34:16 GMT -5
The one guy who actually watched Duran at the ATF and then responded publically was the manager McMillon, himself an outfielder in his playing days. He was very impressed with the hitting - everyone was. On the other hand he sounded like he was auditioning for the State Department when asked about the fielding. He did make it easy to read between the lines, though. Duran is not an above average fielder, not right now anyway. I do not know where Law got his report, but I've got to trust the eyeballs of record on this, and that's McMillon. We are all hoping Duran can make the jump sometime this season. Maybe it’s best he start in LF. Verdugo is more than capable of playing CF. And from what I can see Cordero and Renfroe should both be able to handle RF.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 17, 2021 2:51:40 GMT -5
That's what I'd been wondering about. They might want to start him there, get him familiar the ricochets off the wall and who ends up covering them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 17, 2021 8:03:56 GMT -5
Let’s play the fun speculation game, I say Miguel Rojas Garrett Cooper has been mentioned as a possible piece To be moved after they signed Adam Duvall for some reason. Probably signed Duvall to be able to move Cooper since he has some value Both Ian and I thought of Lewis Brinson.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Feb 17, 2021 8:13:24 GMT -5
Garrett Cooper has been mentioned as a possible piece To be moved after they signed Adam Duvall for some reason. Probably signed Duvall to be able to move Cooper since he has some value Both Ian and I thought of Lewis Brinson. I'd take Franchy Cordero over Brinson in a heartbeat. The prospects would be the only potential positive value in this deal.
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Post by skiptomylouboudreau on Feb 17, 2021 14:22:41 GMT -5
Marlins DFA'd Harold Ramirez, which is slightly surprising. Perhaps he was the mystery veteran they were dangling in talks for Benny?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 17, 2021 14:38:11 GMT -5
Marlins DFA'd Harold Ramirez, which is slightly surprising. Perhaps he was the mystery veteran they were dangling in talks for Benny? I would think it would be Garrett Cooper.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 17, 2021 14:51:41 GMT -5
Marlins DFA'd Harold Ramirez, which is slightly surprising. Perhaps he was the mystery veteran they were dangling in talks for Benny? I would think it would be Garrett Cooper. Not on the topic really, but man.. Ramirez is just another Latin area ballplayer who won't take a walk and seems to hack at everything it looks like. Is there any buscoes, or coaches in those areas who will tell these kids, as teenagers to NOT swing at every pitch? Here is another example of a guy, who is defensively challenged, has some power, but sub5% BB rate, so ends up as a waiver wire refugee. How many has this happened to over the years? Free swingers nearly 1 and all it seems if are from Latin America and I certainly don't mean that as an insult to the heritage before some wokie yaps in, but the coaching, who tells them early on they have to swing the bat to get noticed..
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Post by bcsox on Feb 17, 2021 15:00:34 GMT -5
the old saying goes" nobody ever WALKED off the island"
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Post by jro545454 on Feb 25, 2021 21:28:47 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/these-prospects-could-see-a-meteoric-rise"What is your expectation for the three players-to-be-named-later the Red Sox will receive and do you have an idea of what kind of prospects they’ll be (i.e., tier 1, tier 2, tier 3)? -- @ajamirr This is the other question that was answered on the Podcast, so be sure to check that out, especially since we started talking about Jim’s classifications of “dude, guy, body” in terms of prospects. Jim took on this question since he does the Red Sox Top 30 list each year, so I’m going to paraphrase what he said. His understanding is that it’s two players to be named from the Royals and one coming from the Mets. (He was right in that assessment.) And he’s not expecting any top-10 prospects to come over in the end, instead believing it to be more middle-of-the-list kind of guys. So that would make them “guys” and not “dudes,” perhaps. The thinking is that the three-team trade that sent Andrew Benintendi to the Royals will net the Red Sox three “guys,” in addition to Josh Winckowski, who also qualifies as a “guy.” Not “dudes,” but better than “bodies.”
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 25, 2021 22:27:14 GMT -5
Assuming the guys coming back on the Mets isn’t Top 10 in our system as multiple people have suggested in this thread... anybody seeing anything to suggest Winchowski is more than his ranking suggests?
I see it like this:
Either:
1) We’re higher on Winchowski than the rankings suggest 2) We’re higher on at least one of the guys on PTBNL list than his presumed place in our rankings suggests 3) We’re lower on Khalil Lee than his ranking in the KC system suggests
Otherwise I don’t think the Lee swap to Mets makes sense (obviously). Would anyone like to speculate? If it’s not 1 or 3 I guess I’ll assume it’s door number 2.
I don’t really know what to think of the MLB Trade Value Machine but inputting Lee for Winchowski in there, Peterson is the only guy who effectively could bridge the gap in value. Obviously FO’s differ in how they value players but just using this to eyeball test. Ginn and Ramirez are the only other guys who really come close to bridging the gap, and it only gets the trade to a 65% or so return on Khalil Lee. And don’t forget, the Mets were allegedly super high on this dude so I don’t see why we can’t bridge the gap.
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Post by rasimon on Feb 25, 2021 22:36:18 GMT -5
SOX are also owed a PTBNL by PHI for Chatham and a PTBNL by CHN for Osich. Who would be reasonable PTBNLs. Using the Prospects 1500 tiers
Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years (Casas, Downs is borderline)
Tier 2: Players with an above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Downs, Dalbec, Duran, Houck)
Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Jimenez, Mata, Ward, York, Song, Bonaci, Groome, Jordan, Lugo, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, A.Ramirez, Bello, Wallace, Bazardo, Arauz, Wong)
Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys)
Tier 5: Players who are worth keeping an eye on, but likely to never make a team’s 40-man roster
So who would be reasonable returns? Sox probably don't want to use a 40 man slot on tier 4-5 players. SO...
CUBS - I don't see us getting more than a tier 4 player. They have a few tier 4 young Latin players any one of whom could be a nice lottery ticket. #21 Ronnier Quintero, C, 18 #22 Ismael Mena, OF, 18 #24 Yohendrick Pinano, OF, 18 #29 Kevin Made, SS/2B, 18
PHI - Chatham is a tier 4 so we should get about the same back. This is tough because PHI doesn't have a lot of young talent. #19 Mauricio Llovera, RHP, 24 #21 Ethan Lindow, LHP, 21 #39 David Parkinson, LHP, 25 #46 Zach Warren, LHP, 24
NYN - the Sox traded Lee who is a tier 2 and so far gave gotten back Winckowski who is a tier 4, so I would think they are owed a tier 3. PC-A and Matt Allen are both tier 3 but my guess is they are out of reach. #3 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, 18 #4 Matt Allen, RHP, 19 I kind of like this guy even though he's tier 4 #14 Robert Dominguez, RHP, 19
Finally KC- I'm thinking a tier 3 and a tier 4 maybe. Remember the Sox kicked in $2.8 mm. Tier 3 #10 Kyle Isbel, OF, 23 #14 Ben Hernandez, RHP, 19 Tier 4 #24 Wilmin Candelario, SS, 19 #30 Alec Marsh, RHP, 22
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 25, 2021 22:42:01 GMT -5
SOX are also owed a PTBNL by PHI for Chatham and a PTBNL by CHN for Osich. Who would be reasonable PTBNLs. Using the Prospects 1500 tiers Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years (Casas, Downs is borderline) Tier 2: Players with an above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Downs, Dalbec, Duran, Houck) Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Jimenez, Mata, Ward, York, Song, Bonaci, Groome, Jordan, Lugo, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, A.Ramirez, Bello, Wallace, Bazardo, Arauz, Wong) Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys) Tier 5: Players who are worth keeping an eye on, but likely to never make a team’s 40-man roster So who would be reasonable returns? Sox probably don't want to use a 40 man slot on tier 4-5 players. SO... CUBS - I don't see us getting more than a tier 4 player. They have a few tier 4 young Latin players any one of whom could be a nice lottery ticket. #21 Ronnier Quintero, C, 18 #22 Ismael Mena, OF, 18 #24 Yohendrick Pinano, OF, 18 #29 Kevin Made, SS/2B, 18 PHI - Chatham is a tier 4 so we should get about the same back. This is tough because PHI doesn't have a lot of young talent. #19 Mauricio Llovera, RHP, 24 #21 Ethan Lindow, LHP, 21 #39 David Parkinson, LHP, 25 #46 Zach Warren, LHP, 24 NYN - the Sox traded Lee who is a tier 2 and so far gave gotten back Winckowski who is a tier 4, so I would think they are owed a tier 3. PC-A and Matt Allen are both tier 3 but my guess is they are out of reach. #3 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, 18 #4 Matt Allen, RHP, 19 I kind of like this guy even though he's tier 4 #14 Robert Dominguez, RHP, 19 Finally KC- I'm thinking a tier 3 and a tier 4 maybe. Remember the Sox kicked in $2.8 mm. Tier 3 #10 Kyle Isbel, OF, 23 #14 Ben Hernandez, RHP, 19 Tier 4 #24 Wilmin Candelario, SS, 19 #30 Alec Marsh, RHP, 22 For Chatham and Osich I think we’re going to get a bag of balls back from each team. Wouldn’t put too much stock into it. From Mets: I agree that Allan or Armstrong isnt realistic. From Royals: We kicked in $ but they’ve already given up Franchy and Khalil Lee. I think some of the lower guys you listed could potentially make sense.
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Post by manfred on Feb 25, 2021 22:50:19 GMT -5
I am sure the prospect will be in our top-20, but I’m also sure he won’t be in our top-5. And whole our system is getting much longer on guys who are projected as ok players or back end starters or relievers, we are not growing the top of the system. Downs is the only guy we’ve gotten who would reshuffle a better system.
This isn’t a blasting of Bloom... he has not been moving guys who are likely to bring game changers (even Beni, himself a former elite prospect). But it is to say that at both the major and minor league level, I see a lot more motion than progress. They have not reached the point, if I may play dialectitian, of quantity becoming quality.
The draft this year could budge our system in the rankings, but at the moment, we seem to have only one guy who could be a game changer when he hits Fenway.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 26, 2021 10:41:50 GMT -5
Remember that this is a thread about the Benintendi trade and not a rehash of the Mookie trade or Bloom. Let's stay on topic. Thanks!
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 26, 2021 10:55:40 GMT -5
Remember that this is a thread about the Benintendi trade and not a rehash of the Mookie trade or Bloom. Let's stay on topic. Thanks! It would be nice to have an outlet for talk like this. I don’t really see any one thread that could be a catch all for this type of convo. Maybe I’ll whip something up
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 26, 2021 11:05:56 GMT -5
Remember that this is a thread about the Benintendi trade and not a rehash of the Mookie trade or Bloom. Let's stay on topic. Thanks! It would be nice to have an outlet for talk like this. I don’t really see any one thread that could be a catch all for this type of convo. Maybe I’ll whip something up Note that there is a thread about the Mookie trade: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/5579/mookie-mania
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2021 13:41:32 GMT -5
Just to close the loop on a question above, I agree with Jimmy that they're clearly just getting money for Osich (there'd be no reason for them not to have the player by now) and I doubt they're getting anything for Chatham.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 26, 2021 16:02:24 GMT -5
To be more clear - when I say “concern” I don’t mean concern in that Bloom is doing a bad job or not making a move that he should - he’s working with what he has and doing a good job with it. Just commenting on the fact that eventually it is necessary to accumulate some young, high impact guys beyond Verdugo and maybe Downs / Casas, regardless of whether or not in the current state of the team we have guys who can be traded for this type of asset. I think this also highlights the importance of the Mookie trade (sorry Manfred & others). Pre Mookie trade we have 0-1 high impact controllable talent guys (Casas). Post Mookie we have 1-3 (Verdugo, Downs, Casas). I’m using 4+ years of control as a basis, so not including Devers. Obviously you can have lower guys elevate themselves to this criteria, but for the sustainable contender Bloom always talked about you’d like to have a crop of guys *expected* to be in this tier along with the pleasant surprises you may get from the 3-30 spots in the farm that we’ve done an excellent job (from 8-30 at least) of building out. I will restrain myself. good
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,637
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Post by cdj on Feb 26, 2021 16:05:59 GMT -5
Just to close the loop on a question above, I agree with Jimmy that they're clearly just getting money for Osich (there'd be no reason for them not to have the player by now) and I doubt they're getting anything for Chatham. FIRE BLOOM
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