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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
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Post by ramireja on Feb 26, 2021 16:08:27 GMT -5
Remember that this is a thread about the Benintendi trade and not a rehash of the Mookie trade or Bloom. Let's stay on topic. Thanks! It would be nice to have an outlet for talk like this. I don’t really see any one thread that could be a catch all for this type of convo. Maybe I’ll whip something up ....and if it's the more general Bloom team-building strategy/philosophy that needs a thread...feel free to start that.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 26, 2021 16:29:12 GMT -5
Good idea. Is it possible to maybe move my last post on page 20 and on to a new thread for this purpose to kickstart? I don’t think I have the ability to do this
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 26, 2021 16:37:15 GMT -5
OK. What would you like it called??
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Post by ramireja on Feb 26, 2021 16:52:42 GMT -5
I took a stab at it. Let me know if you want any changes.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 26, 2021 17:37:45 GMT -5
Thanks guys, looks good
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 27, 2021 17:15:12 GMT -5
SOX are also owed a PTBNL by PHI for Chatham and a PTBNL by CHN for Osich. Who would be reasonable PTBNLs. Using the Prospects 1500 tiers Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years (Casas, Downs is borderline) Tier 2: Players with an above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Downs, Dalbec, Duran, Houck) Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Jimenez, Mata, Ward, York, Song, Bonaci, Groome, Jordan, Lugo, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, A.Ramirez, Bello, Wallace, Bazardo, Arauz, Wong) Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys) Tier 5: Players who are worth keeping an eye on, but likely to never make a team’s 40-man roster So who would be reasonable returns? Sox probably don't want to use a 40 man slot on tier 4-5 players. SO... CUBS - I don't see us getting more than a tier 4 player. They have a few tier 4 young Latin players any one of whom could be a nice lottery ticket. #21 Ronnier Quintero, C, 18 #22 Ismael Mena, OF, 18 #24 Yohendrick Pinano, OF, 18 #29 Kevin Made, SS/2B, 18 PHI - Chatham is a tier 4 so we should get about the same back. This is tough because PHI doesn't have a lot of young talent. #19 Mauricio Llovera, RHP, 24 #21 Ethan Lindow, LHP, 21 #39 David Parkinson, LHP, 25 #46 Zach Warren, LHP, 24 NYN - the Sox traded Lee who is a tier 2 and so far gave gotten back Winckowski who is a tier 4, so I would think they are owed a tier 3. PC-A and Matt Allen are both tier 3 but my guess is they are out of reach. #3 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, 18 #4 Matt Allen, RHP, 19 I kind of like this guy even though he's tier 4 #14 Robert Dominguez, RHP, 19 Finally KC- I'm thinking a tier 3 and a tier 4 maybe. Remember the Sox kicked in $2.8 mm. Tier 3 #10 Kyle Isbel, OF, 23 #14 Ben Hernandez, RHP, 19 Tier 4 #24 Wilmin Candelario, SS, 19 #30 Alec Marsh, RHP, 22 Sorry that this is unrelated to Benny trade but we all told this guy we weren’t getting a PTNBL back from Cubs in this thread... Looks like you were right brotha.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 27, 2021 17:18:18 GMT -5
Just to close the loop on a question above, I agree with Jimmy that they're clearly just getting money for Osich (there'd be no reason for them not to have the player by now) and I doubt they're getting anything for Chatham. FIRE BLOOM EXTEND BLOOM
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Post by rasimon on Mar 1, 2021 19:26:00 GMT -5
SOX are also owed a PTBNL by PHI for Chatham and a PTBNL by CHN for Osich. Who would be reasonable PTBNLs. Using the Prospects 1500 tiers Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years (Casas, Downs is borderline) Tier 2: Players with an above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Downs, Dalbec, Duran, Houck) Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Jimenez, Mata, Ward, York, Song, Bonaci, Groome, Jordan, Lugo, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, A.Ramirez, Bello, Wallace, Bazardo, Arauz, Wong) Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys) Tier 5: Players who are worth keeping an eye on, but likely to never make a team’s 40-man roster So who would be reasonable returns? Sox probably don't want to use a 40 man slot on tier 4-5 players. SO... CUBS - I don't see us getting more than a tier 4 player. They have a few tier 4 young Latin players any one of whom could be a nice lottery ticket. #21 Ronnier Quintero, C, 18 #22 Ismael Mena, OF, 18 #24 Yohendrick Pinano, OF, 18 #29 Kevin Made, SS/2B, 18 PHI - Chatham is a tier 4 so we should get about the same back. This is tough because PHI doesn't have a lot of young talent. #19 Mauricio Llovera, RHP, 24 #21 Ethan Lindow, LHP, 21 #39 David Parkinson, LHP, 25 #46 Zach Warren, LHP, 24 NYN - the Sox traded Lee who is a tier 2 and so far gave gotten back Winckowski who is a tier 4, so I would think they are owed a tier 3. PC-A and Matt Allen are both tier 3 but my guess is they are out of reach. #3 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, 18 #4 Matt Allen, RHP, 19 I kind of like this guy even though he's tier 4 #14 Robert Dominguez, RHP, 19 Finally KC- I'm thinking a tier 3 and a tier 4 maybe. Remember the Sox kicked in $2.8 mm. Tier 3 #10 Kyle Isbel, OF, 23 #14 Ben Hernandez, RHP, 19 Tier 4 #24 Wilmin Candelario, SS, 19 #30 Alec Marsh, RHP, 22 A few more Phillies who are interesting Tier 3 #17 Starlyn Castillo RHP 18 Tier 5 #47 Marcus Lee Sang OF 20
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Post by bradythomas on Mar 2, 2021 16:15:27 GMT -5
I second Robert Dominguez!
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Post by soxin8 on Mar 2, 2021 18:30:09 GMT -5
Should we include these in the Bloom discussion?
I understand BTV isn't the final say on whether or not it was a good trade (it seems likely they wont view the Mets part favorably), but it seems like a good starting point for discussion.
Edited: To include tweet
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Post by foreverred9 on Mar 2, 2021 23:22:12 GMT -5
Should we include these in the Bloom discussion? I understand BTV isn't the final say on whether or not it was a good trade (it seems likely they wont view the Mets part favorably), but it seems like a good starting point for discussion. Edited: To include tweet It's a good conversation for the thread, just too early given we don't know the PTBNLs. The Benitendi thread has a long discussion on this but to summarize, the general punch line among the folks was that (1) Kahlil + Franchy for Beni + cash seemed close so the 2 KC PTBNLs will likely be lottery tickets and (2) the PTBNL from the Mets is probably pretty strong (especially given incandenza's comments that CB has seemed to get strong returns on his trades). So it's really going to come down to what's coming back from the Mets. I wouldn't be surprised if that PTBNL is the strongest BTV in the deal.
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 2, 2021 23:57:20 GMT -5
Should we include these in the Bloom discussion? I understand BTV isn't the final say on whether or not it was a good trade (it seems likely they wont view the Mets part favorably), but it seems like a good starting point for discussion. Edited: To include tweet It's a good conversation for the thread, just too early given we don't know the PTBNLs. The Benitendi thread has a long discussion on this but to summarize, the general punch line among the folks was that (1) Kahlil + Franchy for Beni + cash seemed close so the 2 KC PTBNLs will likely be lottery tickets and (2) the PTBNL from the Mets is probably pretty strong (especially given incandenza's comments that CB has seemed to get strong returns on his trades). So it's really going to come down to what's coming back from the Mets. I wouldn't be surprised if that PTBNL is the strongest BTV in the deal. I’m struggling with this. Looking at the Mets system it’s seeming ly either going to be a moderate disappointment (in the immediate term) or a big pickup. If you consider the reports that it won’t be a Top 10 prospect in the Sox system, I think it’s either Ginn or Ramirez. If you consider Winchowski basically a 0 value just to make the argument simpler, either of those guys would be a a pretty decent drop off from the consensus value of Lee. I’m not putting * too much * stock into the non-Top 10 reports. Take into consideration that the Sox had Lee in the bag, and they knew the Mets were super high on him. There’s no reason to settle for less there. Armstrong, Batty, Allan are probably out of reach but there’s a small chance Vientos is in play. Ginn or Ramirez seems like too modest a return. Vientos is *probably* out of reach and the Armstrong / Batty / Allan group almost certainly are. Kind of stuck in a weird middle ground. It should be noted that Ginn was previously a 1st round pick out of HS, decided to go to college, had to get TJ, fell to the Mets in R2 in 2020. Examining the middle ground, Peterson / Luchessi make a lot of sense. I don’t think this is likely due to them being projected to contribute to the Mets rotation this season, but I think it’s at least notable that these two are the closest FV comps to Lee. TLDR: I think most likely Chaim is high on Ginn or Ramirez. Any return less than that would be disappointing in the immediate term. Can hope for Vientos. Peterson / Luchessi dark horses.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Mar 3, 2021 6:30:59 GMT -5
Bloom has nailed every PTNL about as well as he could in his time with Boston. Pillar trade. Osich trade.
I think I'm excited for a better than expected trade based on this reason alone, to circle back to this.
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Post by soxin8 on Mar 3, 2021 14:59:06 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 3, 2021 15:45:04 GMT -5
That's the issue with this trade, there's no way you can get a prospect from the Mets that equals 9 million and doesn't land in our top ten unless it's Veintos who maybe is just outside it. Yet I don't see why you do a PTBNL unless it's multiple guys you're looking at. So he either doesn't value Lee like that, feels Winck is way undervalued or the PTBNL is undervalued currently. A guy like Robert Dominguez is only 2.6 million because he's so young and far away, yet it could look brilliant in a few years. Yet it has to be multiple players right? If I was Bloom I'd love to have a list of Veintos, Dominguez, Ramirez and maybe Valdez. Just going with younger high upside guys that are far away and have limited games they could have been scouted.
Veintos would look great based on those values at 13.2, Dominguez at 2.6, Ramirez at 4.5 and Valdez at 2.1 not so much, yet that could change rather quickly.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 3, 2021 16:04:41 GMT -5
It's pretty clear they've got a list and they're planning on evaluating over the first couple months to decide who to pick. This isn't an Osich situation where they knew for months who they were getting, but getting him on 2/27/21 versus 11/1/20 didn't matter at all, so you may as well wait.
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Post by rasimon on Mar 3, 2021 16:26:30 GMT -5
That's the issue with this trade, there's no way you can get a prospect from the Mets that equals 9 million and doesn't land in our top ten unless it's Veintos who maybe is just outside it. Yet I don't see why you do a PTBNL unless it's multiple guys you're looking at. So he either doesn't value Lee like that, feels Winck is way undervalued or the PTBNL is undervalued currently. A guy like Robert Dominguez is only 2.6 million because he's so young and far away, yet it could look brilliant in a few years. Yet it has to be multiple players right? If I was Bloom I'd love to have a list of Veintos, Dominguez, Ramirez and maybe Valdez. Just going with younger high upside guys that are far away and have limited games they could have been scouted. Veintos would look great based on those values at 13.2, Dominguez at 2.6, Ramirez at 4.5 and Valdez at 2.1 not so much, yet that could change rather quickly. I would love to get Alvarez, Allen, or Crow-Armstrong but I can't see the Mets having agreed to one of those names for Lee. After that I'm not that excited about any one player. Dominguez plus a 10-20 prospect would seem fair.
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Post by rasimon on Mar 3, 2021 19:37:57 GMT -5
SOX are also owed a PTBNL by PHI for Chatham and a PTBNL by CHN for Osich. Who would be reasonable PTBNLs. Using the Prospects 1500 tiers Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years (Casas, Downs is borderline) Tier 2: Players with an above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Downs, Dalbec, Duran, Houck) Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor (Jimenez, Mata, Ward, York, Song, Bonaci, Groome, Jordan, Lugo, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, A.Ramirez, Bello, Wallace, Bazardo, Arauz, Wong) Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys) Tier 5: Players who are worth keeping an eye on, but likely to never make a team’s 40-man roster So who would be reasonable returns? Sox probably don't want to use a 40 man slot on tier 4-5 players. SO... CUBS - I don't see us getting more than a tier 4 player. They have a few tier 4 young Latin players any one of whom could be a nice lottery ticket. #21 Ronnier Quintero, C, 18 #22 Ismael Mena, OF, 18 #24 Yohendrick Pinano, OF, 18 #29 Kevin Made, SS/2B, 18 PHI - Chatham is a tier 4 so we should get about the same back. This is tough because PHI doesn't have a lot of young talent. #19 Mauricio Llovera, RHP, 24 #21 Ethan Lindow, LHP, 21 #39 David Parkinson, LHP, 25 #46 Zach Warren, LHP, 24 NYN - the Sox traded Lee who is a tier 2 and so far gave gotten back Winckowski who is a tier 4, so I would think they are owed a tier 3. PC-A and Matt Allen are both tier 3 but my guess is they are out of reach. #3 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, 18 #4 Matt Allen, RHP, 19 I kind of like this guy even though he's tier 4 #14 Robert Dominguez, RHP, 19 Finally KC- I'm thinking a tier 3 and a tier 4 maybe. Remember the Sox kicked in $2.8 mm. Tier 3 #10 Kyle Isbel, OF, 23 #14 Ben Hernandez, RHP, 19 Tier 4 #24 Wilmin Candelario, SS, 19 #30 Alec Marsh, RHP, 22 A few more Phillies who are interesting Tier 3 #17 Starlyn Castillo RHP 18 Tier 5 #47 Marcus Lee Sang OF 20 Adding one more Philly Tier 3 #15 Rodolfo Duran, C,22 ...profiles as a backup maybe a bit better. PHI has Realmuto and a few catching prospects.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 12, 2021 12:09:51 GMT -5
This may be of some interest:
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Post by jdb on Mar 13, 2021 9:14:13 GMT -5
Mets seem to have a few interesting international signings in that 9-15 range that are a few years from the 40 man.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 13, 2021 9:38:07 GMT -5
Do we happen to know how accessible the minor league training camps are? For example, would the Mets 18-22 year olds be in camp where the Sox can get eyes on them already, or does it only open up once games start in May?
Interesting they have the outfielder from KC at 7. If the thought is we are getting a slightly discounted (because we also got a lower tier pitcher) comparable, 9-20 is probably not that far of a reach. Factor in that the Mets needed some more-ready prospects and were willing to trade higher upside but further away kids, someone like Ramirez at 9, who signed for 2 million but hasn't played, could be a package. Of course, it may also be a chance to get a power arm like Domiguez.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 13, 2021 10:34:54 GMT -5
Do we happen to know how accessible the minor league training camps are? For example, would the Mets 18-22 year olds be in camp where the Sox can get eyes on them already, or does it only open up once games start in May? Interesting they have the outfielder from KC at 7. If the thought is we are getting a slightly discounted (because we also got a lower tier pitcher) comparable, 9-20 is probably not that far of a reach. Factor in that the Mets needed some more-ready prospects and were willing to trade higher upside but further away kids, someone like Ramirez at 9, who signed for 2 million but hasn't played, could be a package. Of course, it may also be a chance to get a power arm like Domiguez. Evidently the reason the Mets were looped into the trade at all was that the Mets were especially high on Lee - and obviously higher on him than the Red Sox. So I would think whoever the Red Sox get would be comparable in value to Lee, even accounting for the Winckowski throw-in. I'd be disappointed if it's not someone in their top 12 or so.
ADD: The Sox-Mets portion of the deal is essentially the rare prospect-for-prospect trade. When's the last time we had one oof those?
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Post by rasimon on Mar 13, 2021 11:05:24 GMT -5
Do we happen to know how accessible the minor league training camps are? For example, would the Mets 18-22 year olds be in camp where the Sox can get eyes on them already, or does it only open up once games start in May? Interesting they have the outfielder from KC at 7. If the thought is we are getting a slightly discounted (because we also got a lower tier pitcher) comparable, 9-20 is probably not that far of a reach. Factor in that the Mets needed some more-ready prospects and were willing to trade higher upside but further away kids, someone like Ramirez at 9, who signed for 2 million but hasn't played, could be a package. Of course, it may also be a chance to get a power arm like Domiguez. I agree, the Mets owe us something in their 9-20 range. Its just not clear to me which single Mets Prospect X the Sox could be targeting such that Prospect X + Winckowski >> Khalil Lee. I'm not thrilled by their prospects outside of Alvarez, Allen, and PCA who all look out of range. Dominguez maybe. Sox did not need to trade Lee so there must be someone they really like. I am still quite hopeful that we get something decent from KC. So far KC has given up Cordero and Lee and received Beni and $2.8MM. Cordero is only 2 months younger than Beni and has generated all of 0.3 WAR in his career (Beni 9.8). Cordero may have great tools but he has lousy plate discipline. www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cordefr02.shtml Beni may have been bad last year but he is only 26-27 this year and he has been a good player in the past. I still think KC owes us at least one and maybe two decent prospects (I like Ben Hernandez, Wilmin Candelario, and Alec Marsh). If I were Bloom, I would target Hernandez and Marsh and offer to throw in more cash or possibly a lower prospect to get it done.
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Post by manfred on Mar 13, 2021 11:37:09 GMT -5
Royals must be getting a little nervous, though. It is early, but Benny is off to a start consistent with last year.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 13, 2021 12:10:57 GMT -5
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