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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,002
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2021 13:25:15 GMT -5
Do we happen to know how accessible the minor league training camps are? For example, would the Mets 18-22 year olds be in camp where the Sox can get eyes on them already, or does it only open up once games start in May? Interesting they have the outfielder from KC at 7. If the thought is we are getting a slightly discounted (because we also got a lower tier pitcher) comparable, 9-20 is probably not that far of a reach. Factor in that the Mets needed some more-ready prospects and were willing to trade higher upside but further away kids, someone like Ramirez at 9, who signed for 2 million but hasn't played, could be a package. Of course, it may also be a chance to get a power arm like Domiguez. I agree, the Mets owe us something in their 9-20 range. Its just not clear to me which single Mets Prospect X the Sox could be targeting such that Prospect X + Winckowski >> Khalil Lee. I'm not thrilled by their prospects outside of Alvarez, Allen, and PCA who all look out of range. Dominguez maybe. Sox did not need to trade Lee so there must be someone they really like. I am still quite hopeful that we get something decent from KC. So far KC has given up Cordero and Lee and received Beni and $2.8MM. Cordero is only 2 months younger than Beni and has generated all of 0.3 WAR in his career (Beni 9.8). Cordero may have great tools but he has lousy plate discipline. www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cordefr02.shtml Beni may have been bad last year but he is only 26-27 this year and he has been a good player in the past. I still think KC owes us at least one and maybe two decent prospects (I like Ben Hernandez, Wilmin Candelario, and Alec Marsh). If I were Bloom, I would target Hernandez and Marsh and offer to throw in more cash or possibly a lower prospect to get it done. I don't think there is going to be any targeting or bargaining. The Red Sox have a small number of names from KC and from the Mets and they will pick two from KC and one from the Mets while KC and the Mets watch.
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Post by orion09 on Mar 13, 2021 13:27:54 GMT -5
If Franchy is anywhere near as productive as JD Drew, I would be thrilled
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Post by soxin8 on Mar 20, 2021 13:19:20 GMT -5
Mets seem to have a few interesting international signings in that 9-15 range that are a few years from the 40 man. www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/mets/I'll add a couple more. I wonder if AA pitchers Gilliam #21 and Megill #28 are on the Red Sox follow list to choose from. Gilliam appears to be reliever only but a good one. Megill's profile looks better than where he is ranked. It's been a tough spring for Lee in the Mets camp so far going 0 for 15 with 9 k's. The Royals system is ranked 14 by BA with some nice pitching depth. Even Klein at 41 and Valerio at 50 look like they would be welcome additions. www.prospects1500.com/al-central/royals/kansas-city-royals-2021-top-50-prospects/
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Post by dyoungteach on Mar 20, 2021 20:34:37 GMT -5
I REALLY hope we have a shot at Alec marsh from kc and if we could get into either ginn or Vientos with Mets.
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KB24
Rookie
Posts: 148
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Post by KB24 on Mar 22, 2021 12:34:31 GMT -5
When would be the earliest we would reasonably expect that the Sox select the NYM and KC pieces from their pool of options? June?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 22, 2021 12:47:49 GMT -5
gammons tweeted 2 months into the minor league season
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 24, 2021 14:56:36 GMT -5
Looks like the Red Sox will be able to scout the Mets and Royals minor league spring training.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,002
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Post by jimoh on Mar 24, 2021 17:42:45 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 28, 2021 23:15:48 GMT -5
I know it’s only spring training, but for those who were hoping for Chaim to just hold onto Benintendi and rebuild his value...
39 AB .231BA 0 HR 3 RBI 1SB .692 OPS
Again, only 39 AB in Spring Training, but not a promising start so far.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 1, 2021 22:50:38 GMT -5
I know it’s only spring training, but for those who were hoping for Chaim to just hold onto Benintendi and rebuild his value... 39 AB .231BA 0 HR 3 RBI 1SB .692 OPS Again, only 39 AB in Spring Training, but not a promising start so far. Saved $3.8 million, received Cordero, Winckowski, and three players to be named for two years of Benintendi..... IMO this will turn out looking like a win if I were betting.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 2, 2021 8:30:54 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2021 8:48:26 GMT -5
So the Red Sox traded Khalil Lee to the Mets because they knew the Mets were especially high on Lee and figured they could get better value for him. Part of the return was Winckowski, a minor piece. But it seems like it stands to reason that the major piece they get back should be ranked at least as high as Lee, who fangraphs gives a 45 grade to. The only other prospects that get 45's in the Mets system are J. T. Ginn and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brett Baty gets a 45+. Mark Vientos and Matthew Allan are 50s. I bet it's one of those five.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 2, 2021 8:55:03 GMT -5
So the Red Sox traded Khalil Lee to the Mets because they knew the Mets were especially high on Lee and figured they could get better value for him. Part of the return was Winckowski, a minor piece. But it seems like it stands to reason that the major piece they get back should be ranked at least as high as Lee, who fangraphs gives a 45 grade to. The only other prospects that get 45's in the Mets system are J. T. Ginn and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brett Baty gets a 45+. Mark Vientos and Matthew Allan are 50s. I bet it's one of those five. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised, but I seriously doubt it will be any of those five. I believe it was reported by Speier the day after the trade that the prospect coming back from the Mets would not be a top 10 type. All five of those guys would clearly be in the Red Sox top 10. I think we're looking more at prospect with high upside that is currently ranked a little bit lower. I'm thinking younger, more unproven type guys like Alexander Ramirez, Jaylen Palmer, Junior Santos, or Robert Dominguez.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2021 9:14:51 GMT -5
So the Red Sox traded Khalil Lee to the Mets because they knew the Mets were especially high on Lee and figured they could get better value for him. Part of the return was Winckowski, a minor piece. But it seems like it stands to reason that the major piece they get back should be ranked at least as high as Lee, who fangraphs gives a 45 grade to. The only other prospects that get 45's in the Mets system are J. T. Ginn and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brett Baty gets a 45+. Mark Vientos and Matthew Allan are 50s. I bet it's one of those five. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised, but I seriously doubt it will be any of those five. I believe it was reported by Speier the day after the trade that the prospect coming back from the Mets would not be a top 10 type. All five of those guys would clearly be in the Red Sox top 10. I think we're looking more at prospect with high upside that is currently ranked a little bit lower. I'm thinking younger, more unproven type guys like Alexander Ramirez, Jaylen Palmer, Junior Santos, or Robert Dominguez. If that's what Speier reported, then that's the reporting, but this makes no sense to me. Why would the Red Sox flip Lee for a lower-ranked prospect? Obviously the Sox' evaluations may not be exactly the same as fangraphs', but if Lee is rated a 45 by fangraphs (which fits the consensus of other sites) there much be some team in the majors that values him at least that highly; presumably the Red Sox sought the Mets out because they figured they were that team. Why, then, would they be taking a guy who would rank a tier below Lee?
Having said that, the write-up on Alexander Ramirez is pretty intriguing...
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 2, 2021 9:23:13 GMT -5
I had read somewhere Mets do not want to part with baty or Allon even in the lindor trade. If that’s to be believed then Armstrong and vientos were not mentioned. However, they kicked in an arm also. So that tells me it’s someone lower than vientos or Armstrong. It will be interesting to see exactly who this is. If I was gambling I would bet it will be 3 pitchers although vientos sure would be an awesome pick up
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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 2, 2021 9:30:49 GMT -5
I'd like to be pleasantly surprised, but I seriously doubt it will be any of those five. I believe it was reported by Speier the day after the trade that the prospect coming back from the Mets would not be a top 10 type. All five of those guys would clearly be in the Red Sox top 10. I think we're looking more at prospect with high upside that is currently ranked a little bit lower. I'm thinking younger, more unproven type guys like Alexander Ramirez, Jaylen Palmer, Junior Santos, or Robert Dominguez. If that's what Speier reported, then that's the reporting, but this makes no sense to me. Why would the Red Sox flip Lee for a lower-ranked prospect? Obviously the Sox' evaluations may not be exactly the same as fangraphs', but if Lee is rated a 45 by fangraphs (which fits the consensus of other sites) there much be some team in the majors that values him at least that highly; presumably the Red Sox sought the Mets out because they figured they were that team. Why, then, would they be taking a guy who would rank a tier below Lee?
Having said that, the write-up on Alexander Ramirez is pretty intriguing...
I think that's fair criticism. It seems Khalil Lee is kind of a high-ish floor, low-ceiling type, so perhaps the Red Sox preferred a player that is further away but a bigger ceiling. Everything I've read about Lee says he has a "chance" to be basically a platoon corner outfielder. From Longenhagen: "I think he could be the larger half of a corner platoon if either more of that pop shows up in games or Lee’s approach eventually enables him to make more contact."
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Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2021 9:54:52 GMT -5
Now that I'm thinking about it... here's a little bit of a speculative theory: given the weirdness of 2020, there may be unusually high variance among prospects - young, developing guys who haven't played a real game in ~18 months - coming into 2021. If the Red Sox have a list of, say, 3 guys from the Mets system to choose from, they may be making the calculation that at least one of them will look surprisingly good, having made improvements that the industry hasn't been able to really observe yet. If so, then it would be a decent wager to accept a list of a few prospects rated slightly lower than Lee to choose from with the hope that one of them would look really good early in the minor league season.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 2, 2021 10:57:40 GMT -5
I agree, incandenza. If this trade was fair value for both sides, then the people on the list should have been rated significantly lower than Lee in February. It would be really difficult to pin down exactly where that line should be, but I'm glad to have Chaim Bloom's side of it.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 2, 2021 11:09:33 GMT -5
I know it’s only spring training, but for those who were hoping for Chaim to just hold onto Benintendi and rebuild his value... 39 AB .231BA 0 HR 3 RBI 1SB .692 OPS Again, only 39 AB in Spring Training, but not a promising start so far. Saved $3.8 million, received Cordero, Winckowski, and three players to be named for two years of Benintendi..... IMO this will turn out looking like a win if I were betting. I'm not interested in doing a daily update of the guy, but his debut in a 14 run game included him going 1 for 5 (a single), with 1 walk, 2k,a great catch and I believe a dive attempt that he missed that allowed 3 runs to score. I think this trade is going to be at worst a wash, but agree this should be a win for the Red Sox.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2021 11:09:33 GMT -5
I agree, incandenza. If this trade was fair value for both sides, then the people on the list should have been rated significantly lower than Lee in February. It would be really difficult to pin down exactly where that line should be, but I'm glad to have Chaim Bloom's side of it. Yes, I rescind my argument above! It makes perfect sense that, if the Sox have the pick of a small litter of guys, they should all be rated a bit lower (but not significantly lower, I think) than Lee. Basically, they're trading $100 for a choice of three piles of $75, each of which has, say, a 25% chance of turning into $125. Or something like that.
So Speier would be right that none of the guys they can choose from would be in the Sox' top 10 now, but it would also be the case that there's a good chance that the one they eventually choose would be in their top ten when they eventually make the choice.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 2, 2021 11:19:43 GMT -5
Saved $3.8 million, received Cordero, Winckowski, and three players to be named for two years of Benintendi..... IMO this will turn out looking like a win if I were betting. I'm not interested in doing a daily update of the guy, but his debut in a 14 run game included him going 1 for 5 (a single), with 1 walk, 2k,a great catch and I believe a dive attempt that he missed that allowed 3 runs to score. I think this trade is going to be at worst a wash, but agree this should be a win for the Red Sox. I'm still surprised that the Red Sox were able to get 5 guys for Benintendi who is loaded with question marks himself. Kind of reminds me of the Von Hayes trade many years ago in which the Phillies got a really good player from the Indians but surrendered 5 guys, one of whom wound up every bit as good if not better - Julio Franco. It seems to me it's not crazy to think that Franchy Cordero by himself winds up equal to if not better than Benintendi and they have an extra year of control on him. Cordero strikes me as an intelligent guy who will be somebody who helps himself rather than hinders himself with his work ethic and attitude. I think he's just has some incredibly bad luck with injuries. He will struggle against lefties but it's not like Benintendi hit them well either.k Then the Sox get 4 other guys as well which could really make the trade lopsided. Winchowki looks like he can be a useful bullpen arm, if not back end starter, and it looks like the Sox will get three lower level prospects hoping to hit big on at least one of them. The only way this backfires is if Benintendi turns into Yellich, Cordero continues to be an enigma, Winckowski winds up being marginal and Bloom goes 0-3 on his prospect evaluations. I like the odds of the Red Sox succeeding in this deal more than the above paragraph reaching fruition.
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Post by manfred on Apr 2, 2021 11:31:05 GMT -5
I'm not interested in doing a daily update of the guy, but his debut in a 14 run game included him going 1 for 5 (a single), with 1 walk, 2k,a great catch and I believe a dive attempt that he missed that allowed 3 runs to score. I think this trade is going to be at worst a wash, but agree this should be a win for the Red Sox. I'm still surprised that the Red Sox were able to get 5 guys for Benintendi who is loaded with question marks himself. Kind of reminds me of the Von Hayes trade many years ago in which the Phillies got a really good player from the Indians but surrendered 5 guys, one of whom wound up every bit as good if not better - Julio Franco. It seems to me it's not crazy to think that Franchy Cordero by himself winds up equal to if not better than Benintendi and they have an extra year of control on him. Cordero strikes me as an intelligent guy who will be somebody who helps himself rather than hinders himself with his work ethic and attitude. I think he's just has some incredibly bad luck with injuries. He will struggle against lefties but it's not like Benintendi hit them well either.k Then the Sox get 4 other guys as well which could really make the trade lopsided. Winchowki looks like he can be a useful bullpen arm, if not back end starter, and it looks like the Sox will get three lower level prospects hoping to hit big on at least one of them. The only way this backfires is if Benintendi turns into Yellich, Cordero continues to be an enigma, Winckowski winds up being marginal and Bloom goes 0-3 on his prospect evaluations. I like the odds of the Red Sox succeeding in this deal more than the above paragraph reaching fruition. It is a big haul and will almost certainly end in a plus, but... it *could* easily backfire short of Beni being Yellich! If Beni is even just Beni from a few years ago, then Cordero HAS to work out... no longer just a hope-so proposal. I am not high on Cordero, meaning I don’t think his production ever lives up to his physical potential.... but I also have a hard time imagining he can’t be ok enough for this to be fine on paper. And there remains the big question: can Beni even be Beni? There is another possible outcome: no one works out and in a few years it is a footnote trade of a bunch of guys who are no longer factors.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 2, 2021 11:36:59 GMT -5
Now that I'm thinking about it... here's a little bit of a speculative theory: given the weirdness of 2020, there may be unusually high variance among prospects - young, developing guys who haven't played a real game in ~18 months - coming into 2021. If the Red Sox have a list of, say, 3 guys from the Mets system to choose from, they may be making the calculation that at least one of them will look surprisingly good, having made improvements that the industry hasn't been able to really observe yet. If so, then it would be a decent wager to accept a list of a few prospects rated slightly lower than Lee to choose from with the hope that one of them would look really good early in the minor league season. I think this is spot on. The current industry rankings might move a ton this year and I doubt the Sox were paying much attention to them when making this trade. I highly doubt we get a highly ranked guy back from the Mets which may upset some fans initially, but I'd also wager we get a guy with a decent-sized up arrow next to his name.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 2, 2021 11:45:05 GMT -5
I'm still surprised that the Red Sox were able to get 5 guys for Benintendi who is loaded with question marks himself. Kind of reminds me of the Von Hayes trade many years ago in which the Phillies got a really good player from the Indians but surrendered 5 guys, one of whom wound up every bit as good if not better - Julio Franco. It seems to me it's not crazy to think that Franchy Cordero by himself winds up equal to if not better than Benintendi and they have an extra year of control on him. Cordero strikes me as an intelligent guy who will be somebody who helps himself rather than hinders himself with his work ethic and attitude. I think he's just has some incredibly bad luck with injuries. He will struggle against lefties but it's not like Benintendi hit them well either.k Then the Sox get 4 other guys as well which could really make the trade lopsided. Winchowki looks like he can be a useful bullpen arm, if not back end starter, and it looks like the Sox will get three lower level prospects hoping to hit big on at least one of them. The only way this backfires is if Benintendi turns into Yellich, Cordero continues to be an enigma, Winckowski winds up being marginal and Bloom goes 0-3 on his prospect evaluations. I like the odds of the Red Sox succeeding in this deal more than the above paragraph reaching fruition. It is a big haul and will almost certainly end in a plus, but... it *could* easily backfire short of Beni being Yellich! If Beni is even just Beni from a few years ago, then Cordero HAS to work out... no longer just a hope-so proposal. I am not high on Cordero, meaning I don’t think his production ever lives up to his physical potential.... but I also have a hard time imagining he can’t be ok enough for this to be fine on paper. And there remains the big question: can Beni even be Beni? There is another possible outcome: no one works out and in a few years it is a footnote trade of a bunch of guys who are no longer factors. I get what you're saying but say Beni returns to 2018 Beni - that's a really good player, but we won't be lumping this in the Bagwell/Andersen deal or the Lyle/Cater category. We don't even know if Beni can be the Beni we enjoyed the most. But say he is. The Red Sox would have to decide to spend big bucks to keep him or risk losing him after two seasons, which are kind of going to be rebuilding seasons in which they hope to be competitive. I'd say it's well worth the risk. They don't lose much. That's why I used the Yelich comparison because short of him being that I don't think there will be much regret factor in the deal. Beni is a guy who I think has less of a ceiling than I used to think he had. Perhaps Cordero is that as well, but I'm willing to take the chance with Cordero over Benintendi at this point, especially with the extra year of control baked in because by then the Sox should have serious playoff aspirations and if Cordero develops he'd be a part of that.
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Post by manfred on Apr 2, 2021 12:52:08 GMT -5
It is a big haul and will almost certainly end in a plus, but... it *could* easily backfire short of Beni being Yellich! If Beni is even just Beni from a few years ago, then Cordero HAS to work out... no longer just a hope-so proposal. I am not high on Cordero, meaning I don’t think his production ever lives up to his physical potential.... but I also have a hard time imagining he can’t be ok enough for this to be fine on paper. And there remains the big question: can Beni even be Beni? There is another possible outcome: no one works out and in a few years it is a footnote trade of a bunch of guys who are no longer factors. I get what you're saying but say Beni returns to 2018 Beni - that's a really good player, but we won't be lumping this in the Bagwell/Andersen deal or the Lyle/Cater category. We don't even know if Beni can be the Beni we enjoyed the most. But say he is. The Red Sox would have to decide to spend big bucks to keep him or risk losing him after two seasons, which are kind of going to be rebuilding seasons in which they hope to be competitive. I'd say it's well worth the risk. They don't lose much. That's why I used the Yelich comparison because short of him being that I don't think there will be much regret factor in the deal. Beni is a guy who I think has less of a ceiling than I used to think he had. Perhaps Cordero is that as well, but I'm willing to take the chance with Cordero over Benintendi at this point, especially with the extra year of control baked in because by then the Sox should have serious playoff aspirations and if Cordero develops he'd be a part of that. I’m on the same page, I think. There is 0% chance of Bagwell-esque burn. I think there won’t be much regret no matter what, because Beni is likely to be a replaceable guy... though I’m not sure this *trade* brings that replacement. I do think there is a good chance, as I said, that it becomes a no-one-gets-much trade. But I have a hard time, like you, seeing it being a sore point statistically. The sore point — and this is not meant to get things rolling! — is the context. For those of us who care deeply about culture and continuity, seeing Beni and JBJ go is upsetting... so if, for example, Beni is decent and Cordero is meh, it will feel like an understandable but highly *clinical* move, which is not endearing. In other words, the Sox *need* to be clear winners in the trade in order fully to justify it.
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