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Benintendi traded to KC in 3-way deal w/ NYM
jimoh
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Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jun 6, 2021 18:13:33 GMT -5
I think the rule 5 draft concerns for Valdez are minimal. No one is putting him on their major league roster after this year. Didn't we establish that the rule 5 concerns for Valdez this coming winter of 21-22 are actually zero, after some confusion over the ambiguity of the English word "next"?
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Post by lennsakata on Jun 6, 2021 18:36:26 GMT -5
Overall I like the trade, while Benintendi is playing better, this is the kind of deal TB and Oakland do all the time and end up with guys like Arozarena so I like the long game they are playing and how they have surprised us this year. Frankly I have more of a problem with signing Kiki for 2 years/$14 million and playing him full time than with the Benintendi trade Arozarena was the Cards best prospect and pretty much a prospect swap for Matthew Liberatore mlb pipeline had Arozarena as the 10th best prospect In the Cardinals system at the time of the trade.
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Post by dyoungteach on Jun 6, 2021 22:11:48 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/gm-chaim-bloom-on-prospects-red-sox-got-for-benintendi?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageTo preface what he said: They want depth at every single level of the system. This won’t be about a system with 3-5 prospects overall but 5-7 prospects at each level that can play at a major league level. Second: this trade was for tomorrow as well as today. ( he definitely sees Cordero as a potential impact major league talent. Third: this was kinda underneath I felt. He won’t dive all in for any year at any moment if the cost could be 1-3 years down. He is the absolute anti thesis of Dave dombrowski and will always have his eye on tomorrow and next month as well as today! Fourth: he trusts in his evaluations and evaluators. I don’t see him regretting this trade at all. Not even close. In fact some more will be coming like it. Now some of those conclusions came from my own take of what was said or what’s under what’s said. I’ll let everyone draw their own conclusions.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 6, 2021 23:57:20 GMT -5
The kicker is that Boston's unexpected success makes us evaluate the trade differently than we did at the time it was made. If they were an 80-win team it's a lot easier to say "good call, shifting our resources to future years" but as a 90-win team or a 95-win team it's hard to ignore the "gee we could use him in LF right now" thoughts. I think this trade is going to remain incomplete for me, for at least a few more years. It's a risky move, one we're not used to in a big market, but the return could be impressive. One thing I'd note is that 6.5 WAR over the next 6 years is not the same as 6.5 WAR this year and next. You almost need to do a present value calculation to make the comparison the same. Not to mention, Benintendi's 6.5 WAR will be a lot more expensive than these player's WAR so that needs to be factored in. I also agree that Benintendi was likely not someone we'd want to sign at 10M+ per year, so getting a return for him is better than letting him walk. Take JBJ for example, would we have preferred to trade him in mid-2019 or during 2020? Or was it best to have that extra WAR and let him walk? This. I think the trade wouldn't have been made if Bloom felt the most likely outcome of this season was a 95 win team. He probably figured they were an 85 win team and could risk losing a higher probability of stability in LF. But given where they are now, they would be better with Benintendi in LF and in the leadoff spot getting on base. Renfroe was their first move of the offseason. He would have been with the Red Sox regardless of Benintendi's status. Most likely the impact would be that Hernandez would have spent the majority of his time at 2nd rather than in CF. Most likely he might have wound up in CF in the late innings defensively with Verdugo shifting over to LF and Renfroe in RF (and Arroyo at 2b). The Sox likely wouldn't have gotten Marwin Gonzalez, but putting aside tonight's key HR, I would have been fine with the Sox not acquiring him. Anyways, what concerns me about the trade is that for the talk that Franchy wasn't a key component of the trade, seeing what the Sox have acquired I am now back to my original thought that Franchy was indeed a key component. I think Bloom thought he'd be an average player with a chance for a breakout, a higher ceiling than Benintendi possesses if you stop dreaming about young Freddy Lynn or him blossoming into Christian Yelich which you can dismiss when you see how trying to hit for power messed up Beni. So you have Franchy who was supposed to be a major leaguer who was at least near average. Winckowski was a question mark as to whether he was a reliever or could start. So far that's looking like it's going in the right direction, although it's hard to know how high his ceiling is. Maybe he's a #4 starter? I thought the Mets prospect would be the true headliner in the deal, but to me Valdez is still a lottery ticket at this point. His profile is such that he could really go either way. His hit tool might leave him as a AAA player. The hope is he hits enough so that his power plays and he becomes a prototypical power hitting RF, but that feels so uncertain given such a small track record. Grandel, the 23 year old pitcher they got from KC doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is much more than depth at the major league level if he gets that far. I will say that De La Rosa is really intriguing, but he, too, is so young, and so far away and with such a limited track record, which was blowing away batters at the DSL, it's hard to know if he is a legit prospect. So the Sox could do very well in this deal. They need some combo of two of these guys hitting for it to work, whether it's Franchy showing he's more than a AAAA player, or Winckowski showing he can be a rotation contributor, or Valdez developing into a RF cornerstone, or De La Rosa becoming the next Brayan Bello, circa 2021. So at this point I'm less certain the Sox will recoup their value, but given that I really don't know what these guys scout to in the Red Sox' eyes, all I can do is wait - and in this case it could take an awfully long time. I'm just glad Beni isn't a superstar (and no, I didn't expect the Sox to sign him long-term), but I am curious, as UMass pointed out, as to if the Royals cash in Beni for more talent than the Sox extracted for him.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 7, 2021 10:07:44 GMT -5
I never listen to sports radio, but had a drive yesterday and listened to the host complaining about the trade because, citing this site, Valdez slots at about 18, and de la Rosa slots around 46 "in a weak system", dismissing them as "lottery tickets." And they are, but not all lottery tickets are the same. It is virtually impossible for a 17 year old and 18 year old to break the top 15. Now, the range of outcomes is much wider as they take their first swings in Rookie ball. On the ceiling, in June 2011, Bogaerts was ranked 18th as an 18 year old after a season in Rookie ball. On the low floor, Oscar Tejada was 12th after his first stateside season. These are the sorts of kids who are ranked 18th because of the lack of track record, but can easily jump to 4th as the site first gets eyes on the players.
But that is the fun of this site -- dreaming on upside. And Valdez and de la Rosa have the potential to remain on the ceiling track for a couple of seasons, and hopefully for their whole career. And with the benefit of a year off with no eyes on them, and a hidden spring before Rookie ball starts, it may be that the Sox have a better sense of what the GCL impact will be, to at least overcome the first big bump in the road that would knock them off the "floor" trajectory. (I.e., bad BB/K rates for power hitters (the Tony Blanco/Michael Almanzar warning), and for pitchers, the same K rate (call it the Jose Almonte warning).
Long story short, I'm a dreamer on upside, and I hope Bloom and his scouts have checked off the early risk signals so that they remain high impact ceiling kids.
I can't wait for June 28th. Wonder where they'll get playing time for all the OFs, with Vaughan, a decent prospect, now slated for the bench.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2021 10:43:32 GMT -5
I think it comes down to this: a bird in hand may be worth two in the bush, but what about 5 in the bush when the bird in hand is going to fly away in one season and the birds in the bush will all stay in the bush for 3-6 seasons?
As I mentioned months ago, given the information asymmetries, I'm more concerned about what we think about the players acquired at the end of the season than right now. Not that it's super likely any of these guys pulls a Whitlock, but it's possible we think very differently of any of these players come late September than we do now in early June.
For myself, I'm cautiously optimistic but I don't think the trade was a slam dunk the way that, say, the Phillies trade was last year. And that's fine - most trades aren't.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 7, 2021 11:42:41 GMT -5
Cordero's best season he gave his team .2 bwar. I'm fine betting on a lottery ticket, yet he wasn't some high upside prospect. He was never close to even Chavis, who at 2B has real value and upside. Now 1B is a whole different ball game, let's just make that clear. You can't overlook the money, given what it cost the Yankees in German to unload money this year. You can certainly say it's smart, yet you also have to add that in. So no I don't think that Royals package equals Benintendi at full value, not even close. Not if you project 6.5 war for Benintendi. For years this board has always been saying five nickels doesn't equal a quarter when it comes to prospects in Baseball. I was naive at first, yet over the years I've come to understand why. That's what this trade is. Now a crazy smart GM might be able to pull off mini miracles. It certainly happens. Red Sox win this trade it shows you how good Bloom is. It's not that you won this trade on current value, it's Bloom was able to spot players that were being undervalued. Cordero has never played more than 40 games in a season, so solely citing a full season WAR total to project him moving forward isn't fair. If he was a regular starter and never materialized it'd be a different conversation, this guy is still relatively raw. FWIW Fangraphs had Cordero at 45FV in 2018, and Chavis at 45FV in 2019. I'm not sure how you can suggest he "was never close" to Chavis, you're either overrating what Chavis was a prospect or underrating Cordero. I'm not a big Franchy fan, I'm just trying to keep it consistent. I see your Chavis profile pic so I'm assuming you're invested in him. If he proves to be a decent defensive 2B moving forward sure, I'd prefer that to Franchy's risk/reward profile. Chavis made top 100 lists in multiple years, Cordero never made one. Maybe one site at one time ranked them similar, yet overall Chavis was ranked much higher. Nevermind Chavis based on age has shown you a lot more already at a younger age. Don't trust my word look at the value at major league trade values. Cordero was a lottery ticket. Chavis at least has some numbers at 2b that you can project and say he can be about replacement level without much change, with a bunch of upside if he can cut down the strikrouts. It's why his value is 4.8 versus .3 for Cordero. Heck Cordero wasn't even Peraza from last year. Right now Chavis has more value than any piece we acquired if you buy that sites rankings.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2021 16:43:13 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 14,228
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Post by cdj on Jun 8, 2021 16:53:22 GMT -5
Is Becerra still with the org? If so he probably had a hand in signing Valdez when he was international scouting director with the Mets as I believe that would have been his last class. He might have some unique insight on Valdez. My timeline could be wrong but it seems like it checks out from googling around
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2021 17:49:03 GMT -5
Is Becerra still with the org? If so he probably had a hand in signing Valdez when he was international scouting director with the Mets as I believe that would have been his last class. He might have some unique insight on Valdez. My timeline could be wrong but it seems like it checks out from googling around Nice pull! I know the team also had guys looking at Mets players recently, but I'm sure that pre-signing familiarity helped.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 9, 2021 10:56:24 GMT -5
I don't know where to ask this question, but what is going on with podcast 212? It won't come through. It usually comes right on and I left it on to see if it would come in. No luck.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 9, 2021 11:23:53 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2021 12:13:24 GMT -5
I don't know where to ask this question, but what is going on with podcast 212? It won't come through. It usually comes right on and I left it on to see if it would come in. No luck. DM me with more details. Not sure what you're asking.
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 9, 2021 12:24:30 GMT -5
I don't know where to ask this question, but what is going on with podcast 212? It won't come through. It usually comes right on and I left it on to see if it would come in. No luck. DM me with more details. Not sure what you're asking. You an Ian kept referring to Benny as a rental on the podcast.... am I missing something? Thought he was controlled in 2022. Or are you suggesting he gets non tendered?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2021 12:58:07 GMT -5
You an Ian kept referring to Benny as a rental on the podcast.... am I missing something? Thought he was controlled in 2022. Or are you suggesting he gets non tendered? Dammit to hell you're right. 2-year contract threw us off.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 14, 2021 14:13:40 GMT -5
How optimistic would you be about a player who was believed to be potentially really good, and had a 42 wRC+ in his first 166 PA with your team?
How would that change if he had a 354 in his next 15?
How optimistic would you be about a player who was was believed to be potentially really good, and had a 10 wRC+ in his first 87 PA with your team?
How would that change if he had a 187 in his next 15? And if you learned that the breakout had been predicted from his exit velocities, etc., in his last 25 PA of the 87?
The second guy struggled worse and didn't break out as dramatically, but he also struggled for much less time. The first guy had a whole winter in the middle of his suckage.
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It was stated with some authority here that guys taken in the ml portion of the Rule 5 draft are never prospects. I don't believe that was incorrect.
Nevertheless, meet Kaleb Ort and Tyreque Reed.
How did this happen? My best guess: because of the cancelled 2020 ml season, there were some guys who were better than their own teams realized, guys who would have broken out a bit in the 2020 ml season had it happened, and been protected at the proper level.
I did look at the three guys picked ahead of Reed; two of them haven't even pitched and the guy who went first has been meh. It wouldn't surprise me if there were a few other prospects discovered, by the smarter teams, but that Bloom did so well with all three picks on this draft is hugely impressive.
Why is this observation in this thread?
Josh Winckowski can be bundled with the three Rule 5 picks in terms of the scouting process. They are absolutely identical. So Bloom, so far, seems to be 4 for 4.
We know for certain that the selection of the PTBNL's in this trade was made with even more information and knowledge. The Sox chose the players on the PTBNL candidate lists through the same process that these 4 guys got: exact same scouting, exact same discussions about whether there is upside that is unrealized. But then they had the first month of the ml season to gather more information.
People thought the Whitlock pick was a good solid one. The same people think the new guys are a good solid trio of prospects. But Bloom and his crew know vastly more than about these players than even the best of the reporters.
There's obviously no guarantee that the six guys I've mentioned here other than Whitlock will end up being anywhere as much of a steal as he seems to be. But this is one ferociously savvy front office, and you should absolutely believe that each of the three guys is at least somewhat better than anyone thinks. Except the Sox, of course.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 14, 2021 14:59:54 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 14,228
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Post by cdj on Jun 14, 2021 15:12:50 GMT -5
I posted about the injury in the non-Sox mlb thread about how it’s the same rib that ended his season last year but if he’s being feeling something for awhile that’s a significant problem
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Post by ramireja on Aug 20, 2021 16:13:23 GMT -5
I was just checking in on Kahlil Lee's year to see if we missed out on a potential nice piece in the return for Benintendi, and I honestly can't tell. It's been a weird year for him to say the least. On the one hand, you could quickly look at his AAA stats: 148 wRC+, 18.4 BB% leading to a .439(!) OBP, with a .193 IsoP and quickly draw the conclusion that we messed this one up. That said, there's still a 30.2 K% in AAA (he struck out in 13 of his 18 PAs at the MLB level) and he would truly need to walk a ton to have an acceptable OBP if his batting average projects to be something near the Mendoza line in the majors. He also stole 53 bases in his AA year with KC, but was never noted as a plus speed guy, and this year he's stole only 5 bags while being caught stealing 8 times. Thats easy negative value on the base paths. The jury is still out but there's some really good mixed with some pretty concerning stats too that probably make me ok with how things are going at the moment.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 28, 2021 6:40:37 GMT -5
In reality the Benintendi trade comes down to is he the versatile OF with hit tool some power and speed that we (I) thought he was when we kept him over Moncada in the Sale trade? Or is he the 1-2 WAR player who is going to come at too high a cost to be worth it. I still like him, but I also still believe in JBJ...
They got a fine return, for a guy who would be the clear 4th best OF (ignoring that Kiké could then play 2B and we'd have been saved from the Franchy Cordero Experience)
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Post by geostorm on Feb 18, 2022 7:06:40 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2022 8:21:17 GMT -5
We don’t talk about B[enintendi]
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 18, 2022 9:30:13 GMT -5
Dammit now I'm going to spend the rest of the day writing that parody in my head.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2022 10:15:46 GMT -5
Honestly “we don’t talk about B[etts]” is even better.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2022 15:27:55 GMT -5
Honestly “we don’t talk about B[etts]” is even better. We don’t talk about B[enintendi] Honestly, “We don’t talk about B[etts]” is even better. …and God help us if we mention the name Renfro!
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