2021 Player Projections

There aren't necessarily any real burners, but Bogaerts, Verdugo, Cordero, Kiké, and Renfroe all have faster than average sprint speeds according to baseball savant. If Duran joins that mix, you're looking at a more than respectable team on the basepaths.

I think that the graphic that RedSoxStats showed in one of the other threads showing Kiké Hernández’s hits overlayed on Fenway showing an uptick in HR’s (or at least wall banging singles/doubles) also played a part. Plus Renfroe likes to go oppo a lot, and Dalbec has been showing opposite field power as well. I think with this specific team, there’s a slight lean towards right field power which is a benefit of Fenway

Your starters will be 70-51 with every ERA under 5.00. I hope this indeed happens!

More important than the HRs is the 90-95 wins this would result in.
GOOOO SOXXXX

I in no way am trying to knock your hustle. I truly love seeing optimistic projections like this, and I am by far an expert. But there are a few things that stick out to me.

Pitching-wise: I don't see Perez and Rodriguez getting 32 and 28 starts, respectively. Everybody is coming off of a truncated season, so even if he's effective every time out, I don't think you can expect Perez to pitch every 5th day and not miss a turn.
Rodriguez is already showing signs of not having pitched for a year+ with his dead arm. They're definitely going to skip him more than a few times and I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 or 3 quick IL stints for him with dead arm again. 
In the bullpen, I don't see Barnes as the closer. He'll probably be given first crack at it, but I'm just not a believer in him in that role. I think Ottavino takes it over and does a serviceable job. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Darwinzon Hernandez pitch himself into the closer's role by the end of the season, should the need arise. He's certainly got the stuff for it.

In the batting order: First thing I noticed was Devers getting 600 ABs. I don't know why I have the impression of him as a guy who hits the IL for his fair share of games, but I do, so I think that number seems high. Bogaerts on the other hand, I have the opposite impression of. He always stick in my mind as a 162 game type, so I feel his cumulative numbers will increase. I feel like Kiké gets more ABs as well, playing the vast majority of games at 2nd base, but getting ABs at other positions, too, especially with the lack of outfield depth and Franchy's injury history. I hope JD Martinez puts this season together, simply to improve his trade value to try and get some decent prospects back for him at the All star break. Hopefully the Red Sox are in the mix for the playoffs, but if not, Martinez is the first guy I'm looking to move on from.

Like I said, I'm absolutely no expert, so don't take my disagreement as me knocking your efforts at all. I like seeing this kind of effort!

I will put a big asterisk in that I probably did not put enough stock into how teams are going to handle starters innings coming off the shortened 2020 season. Mostly due to the fact I don't think anyone really knows yet. Will they shorten starts to 4-5 innings and shuffle the bullpen more often? Add a 6th starter? Skip every 2nd or 3rd start through the rotation and use a guy like Whitlock/Andriese? They all seem to be on the table. I do think Perez though likely leads the team in innings and games started, but that's based more on the fact that the other 4 have much bigger health questions than anything else.

I mean, 266 HR's would have been 5th in the league in 2019, and the Sox are very deep in Power first guys (Dalbec, Cordero, Renfroe) and overall good hitters with power (JD, Devers, Bogaerts) so I don't think it's out of the question. As for the 5.00 ERA, it's just predicting the individuals likely outcome. Chances are someone is going to have a bad season, but why predict one guy to just have a blow up season other than the odds that someone will?

Yup. And you put a heckuva lot of work in on this. I used to guestimate year-end stats of players and they were all within narrow parameters. We know that some guys will do better and some worse...but those kinds of predictions can't be made.

They were on pace for 219 last season and hit 245 in 2019. Given the additions to the roster, I think they'll be a lot closer to 266 than 215.

Good point, looks like I probably overestimated by about 300-400 at bats total. The Red Sox previous seasons AB's are 5624 (prorated), 5770, 5623 and 5669. I've got 6018 projected, so that's too high, have to keep that in mind for next time, thanks!

After 91 game Sox have 115 HRs. On pace for 205