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Post by brendan98 on Apr 9, 2021 10:33:02 GMT -5
Guys I'd like to see the Sox workout extensions with ASAP: Erod, Barnes, Devers
They will lose about $40M in payroll after this year with Dustin, Ottavino, Richards, Perez, and Renfroe. Plus Barnes, E-Rod and Devers already count close to $20M against the current payroll, so about $60M (annually) to get those 3 done. Also have JDM and Eovaldi coming off the books the following year freeing up close to another $40.
If they can extend those guys, with some young talent on the horizon like Duran, Downs, Casas, Wong, hopefully Mata, Seabold, Bazardo, Ward, etc.. along with young guys that are currently proving themselves on the big-league level, the Sox could have a nice mix of youth and experience for years to come.
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Post by manfred on Apr 9, 2021 10:41:57 GMT -5
Extensions are always “sure if....” proposals to me. I would certainly extend the three you name.... if the price is right. I’d be up for a good deal of dough for Devers and ERod. Barnes... it’d have to be pretty team friendly.
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 9, 2021 13:59:09 GMT -5
My two cents: I'd like ERod on an Eovaldi-type deal, but I'm not sure that gets it done. I think his value is hard to pin down, so no idea what his market will be this coming offseason. IMO, Devers needs to solidify his role at 3B before getting signed to big money. I absolutely want him to be part of the long-term plan, but unless he's up for 6/$80M I don't see any rush to sign him. Vazquez needs to be on this list. I wouldn't get too crazy on the AAV, but I think he needs 3-4 years added to his current contract. I'm not sure what happens with Barnes, he's dominant at times but has never had a truly dominant season. His future in Boston is going to depend a lot on his asking price and how may other people step up in the bullpen. McCullers is a good comp for ERod IMO. I think his contract should look something similar to McCullers but either a year shorter or a few million lower AAV.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 9, 2021 17:30:18 GMT -5
My two cents: I'd like ERod on an Eovaldi-type deal, but I'm not sure that gets it done. I think his value is hard to pin down, so no idea what his market will be this coming offseason. IMO, Devers needs to solidify his role at 3B before getting signed to big money. I absolutely want him to be part of the long-term plan, but unless he's up for 6/$80M I don't see any rush to sign him. Vazquez needs to be on this list. I wouldn't get too crazy on the AAV, but I think he needs 3-4 years added to his current contract. I'm not sure what happens with Barnes, he's dominant at times but has never had a truly dominant season. His future in Boston is going to depend a lot on his asking price and how may other people step up in the bullpen. McCullers is a good comp for ERod IMO. I think his contract should look something similar to McCullers but either a year shorter or a few million lower AAV. I wouldn't like to be the guy whose job it is to put McCullers' stats in front of Erod and say "we think you're like this guy who's won 33 games in five years, only not as good."
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 9, 2021 18:53:26 GMT -5
McCullers is a good comp for ERod IMO. I think his contract should look something similar to McCullers but either a year shorter or a few million lower AAV. I wouldn't like to be the guy whose job it is to put McCullers' stats in front of Erod and say "we think you're like this guy who's won 33 games in five years, only not as good." McCullers 3.68 Career ERA, over 4.00 1 of 5 years (4.25). Career xFIP 3.34, never over 3.68 in 5 seasons. Averages about 120 innings a season excluding 2019 (TJ) and 2020 (55 IP 2020). Maybe it’s unfair to exclude 2019 if that plays into your point? ERod 4.04 Career ERA. Career xFIP 3.95. Averaged 120 IP 2015 - 2018, did manage to break 200 IP in 2019. Is your suggestion about the 33 wins that McCullers can’t pitch enough innings? Or a reference to 2019 TJ? Not exactly sure what you meant. But I think they’re pretty comparable.
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Post by manfred on Apr 9, 2021 19:05:28 GMT -5
I wouldn't like to be the guy whose job it is to put McCullers' stats in front of Erod and say "we think you're like this guy who's won 33 games in five years, only not as good." McCullers 3.68 Career ERA, over 4.00 1 of 5 years (4.25). Career xFIP 3.34, never over 3.68 in 5 seasons. Averages about 120 innings a season excluding 2019 (TJ) and 2020 (55 IP 2020). Maybe it’s unfair to exclude 2019 if that plays into your point? ERod 4.04 Career ERA. Career xFIP 3.95. Averaged 120 IP 2015 - 2018, did manage to break 200 IP in 2019. Is your suggestion about the 33 wins that McCullers can’t pitch enough innings? Or a reference to 2019 TJ? Not exactly sure what you meant. But I think they’re pretty comparable. I think you can’t exclude years just because he was hurt... since that should be factored in an offer. Overall, McCullers is being paid for potential, I guess, but that extension seems crazy to me. He has pitched over 120 innings twice! If you want to cut seasons, then since his first two seasons, McCullors’s ERA is 4.02, almost exactly ERod’s. ERod has nearly double his career WAR, less history of arm trouble, and that 200 inning season was a natural tapering up. He is far more clearly AT the front line — not just potentially. And... he is only months older than McCullors. Alas, if Eddie gets paid just on this comp, he’ll be too expensive for the Sox. I just hope people treat McCullors’ contract as the freak I think it is.
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Post by jimoh on Apr 9, 2021 19:56:44 GMT -5
I wouldn't like to be the guy whose job it is to put McCullers' stats in front of Erod and say "we think you're like this guy who's won 33 games in five years, only not as good." McCullers 3.68 Career ERA, over 4.00 1 of 5 years (4.25). Career xFIP 3.34, never over 3.68 in 5 seasons. Averages about 120 innings a season excluding 2019 (TJ) and 2020 (55 IP 2020). Maybe it’s unfair to exclude 2019 if that plays into your point? ERod 4.04 Career ERA. Career xFIP 3.95. Averaged 120 IP 2015 - 2018, did manage to break 200 IP in 2019. Is your suggestion about the 33 wins that McCullers can’t pitch enough innings? Or a reference to 2019 TJ? Not exactly sure what you meant. But I think they’re pretty comparable. I’m literally thinking of how it’s going to look to ERod. I’m not talking about which one deserves more money, or if you were choosing between free agents. I’m talking about whether he will think he deserves less than a person with that record. “I won 19 games.”
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Post by Coreno on Apr 9, 2021 20:57:18 GMT -5
Not sure why a Pitcher and his agent would go to the negotiating table with "I won [X] games, that guy has only won [Y] games" as their big weapon in the year 2021.
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Post by manfred on Apr 9, 2021 21:02:03 GMT -5
Not sure why a Pitcher and his agent would go to the negotiating table with "I won [X] games, that guy has only won [Y] games" as their big weapon in the year 2021. Well, in fairness, it is a shorthand for the detailed argument: ERod is a LOT more accomplished than McCullers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 9, 2021 21:06:02 GMT -5
McCullers 3.68 Career ERA, over 4.00 1 of 5 years (4.25). Career xFIP 3.34, never over 3.68 in 5 seasons. Averages about 120 innings a season excluding 2019 (TJ) and 2020 (55 IP 2020). Maybe it’s unfair to exclude 2019 if that plays into your point? ERod 4.04 Career ERA. Career xFIP 3.95. Averaged 120 IP 2015 - 2018, did manage to break 200 IP in 2019. Is your suggestion about the 33 wins that McCullers can’t pitch enough innings? Or a reference to 2019 TJ? Not exactly sure what you meant. But I think they’re pretty comparable. I’m literally thinking of how it’s going to look to ERod. I’m not talking about which one deserves more money, or if you were choosing between free agents. I’m talking about whether he will think he deserves less than a person with that record. “I won 19 games.” I think today's baseball players are smart enough to know that pitcher wins are meaningless.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 9, 2021 23:06:53 GMT -5
I don't see Bloom extending any before the season is over myself. He see's at least as much as we do, if not more numbers and details. Look at these guys from a stand off point, rather than they are people the team developed and you may want to keep "just because".
Devers is a DH/1b playing 3rd, who hurts the team playing his current position many times with the glove. Do you think any extension amount is going to be based on what Bloom values him as a DH/1b, or a 3b? I'm thinking the former, which will leave Devers year to year.
Rodriquez, having pitched 1 game in nearly a year and a half will have to show Bloom he is able to go out and both pitch effectively and stay healthy. IF he does both of those by perhaps the AS break? i could see Bloom offering the Eovaldi type deal mentioned above.
Barnes is the one we know (according to him) remained engaged in extension negotiations the longest during ST. Shame something couldn't get worked out. Have a feeling he'll be solid once again and someone will overpay for him, like 3/27-30m.
Vazquez is one I'd like to see gone ahead and extended. Offer him another 2/25m on top of what he has coming.
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Post by jimoh on Apr 10, 2021 7:31:20 GMT -5
I’m literally thinking of how it’s going to look to ERod. I’m not talking about which one deserves more money, or if you were choosing between free agents. I’m talking about whether he will think he deserves less than a person with that record. “I won 19 games.” I think today's baseball players are smart enough to know that pitcher wins are meaningless. "In my last season I won 19 games for a not very good team that was 26-8 during my starts because I pitched 203 innings to a 3.81 ERA and finished 6th in the Cy Young voting so I don't want to be compared to a guy they hope will do that some day."
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Post by manfred on Apr 10, 2021 8:27:18 GMT -5
I think today's baseball players are smart enough to know that pitcher wins are meaningless. "In my last season I won 19 games for a not very good team that was 26-8 during my starts because I pitched 203 innings to a 3.81 ERA and finished 6th in the Cy Young voting so I don't want to be compared to a guy they hope will do that some day." I get the argument that wins aren’t as meaningful as before, but saying they are meaningless is an exaggeration. After all, to get a win, you gave to go 5 innings... so they at least tell you a pitcher has hung around, which also suggests he did not get bombed or throw a bazillion pitches per inning. They also tell you the team won while you started. I think it is fairer to say that a low win total (eg Felix’s Cy Young year) is potentially deceptive... but a high win total is not meaningless. Sure, a guy on a great team might be mediocre and get a lot of wins easier than others... but we still at least know he’s putting in the work. And as Jimoh suggests here, the comparison of winning percentages (pitcher to team) can help identify if the wins are “cheap” or not. One could argue, as well, that no statistic is meaningful out of the context of others. Low WHIP? Doesn’t automatically mean you were good (good sign! But you still might give up tons of home runs etc).
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 10, 2021 9:45:50 GMT -5
I don't see Bloom extending any before the season is over myself. He see's at least as much as we do, if not more numbers and details. Look at these guys from a stand off point, rather than they are people the team developed and you may want to keep "just because". Devers is a DH/1b playing 3rd, who hurts the team playing his current position many times with the glove. Do you think any extension amount is going to be based on what Bloom values him as a DH/1b, or a 3b? I'm thinking the former, which will leave Devers year to year. Rodriquez, having pitched 1 game in nearly a year and a half will have to show Bloom he is able to go out and both pitch effectively and stay healthy. IF he does both of those by perhaps the AS break? i could see Bloom offering the Eovaldi type deal mentioned above. Barnes is the one we know (according to him) remained engaged in extension negotiations the longest during ST. Shame something couldn't get worked out. Have a feeling he'll be solid once again and someone will overpay for him, like 3/27-30m. Vazquez is one I'd like to see gone ahead and extended. Offer him another 2/25m on top of what he has coming. I hate to say it, but if Red Sox don’t contend this year I wonder if we see Vazquez traded this year. ( only because I suspect he might bring back true impact young talent in trade back. I hope not though. I compare him very favorably to our new Jason varitek in terms of leadership, being an all star catcher, and desiring to be a Red Sox for his career even at a reduced salary if need be
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Post by dirtdog on Apr 10, 2021 9:54:04 GMT -5
Love Raffy and from everything I have read so do his team mates. You are still projecting with him though. Have to wonder if he will ever become a more disciplined hitter and where does he end up in the field, or is he more of a DH. At the plate I believe he has Juan Soto like potential but I would like to see it more consistently.
As far as pitchers go they are all a roll of the dice, a ligament away from never being the same. I agree with having Vasquez stick around but he could probably bring a nice haul at the deadline.
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Post by manfred on Apr 10, 2021 10:03:10 GMT -5
I have advocated trading CVaz in the past, but now I have backed off that position. I think they could be better next year than I expected if Houck, Pivetta, and Whitlock all continue to throw well. Purge the dross, get a few OBP guys, have Sale, business time.
And... I don’t think they would trade him, even if they are out of it come July. I suspect they to longer want to take big backward steps in the rebuild unless they have to (eg, someone they don’t think they can extend).
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Extensions
Apr 10, 2021 10:16:09 GMT -5
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Post by Jimmy on Apr 10, 2021 10:16:09 GMT -5
I have advocated trading CVaz in the past, but now I have backed off that position. I think they could be better next year than I expected if Houck, Pivetta, and Whitlock all continue to throw well. Purge the dross, get a few OBP guys, have Sale, business time. And... I don’t think they would trade him, even if they are out of it come July. I suspect they to longer want to take big backward steps in the rebuild unless they have to (eg, someone they don’t think they can extend). Agreed. I love that two somewhat under the radar Bloom acquisitions have almost immediately worked their way into this conversation. Makes me even more excited to get a look at Seabold, Downs, Benny PTBNLs.
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Post by manfred on Apr 10, 2021 10:31:18 GMT -5
I have advocated trading CVaz in the past, but now I have backed off that position. I think they could be better next year than I expected if Houck, Pivetta, and Whitlock all continue to throw well. Purge the dross, get a few OBP guys, have Sale, business time. And... I don’t think they would trade him, even if they are out of it come July. I suspect they to longer want to take big backward steps in the rebuild unless they have to (eg, someone they don’t think they can extend). Agreed. I love that two somewhat under the radar Bloom acquisitions have almost immediately worked their way into this conversation. Makes me even more excited to get a look at Seabold, Downs, Benny PTBNLs. I love that a Dombrowski extension (Eovaldi) and draft pick (Houck) both appear to have been great moves. If Groome or Ward ever work out, and if Casas is up, people may look back on DD’s restocking through the draft in a far more favorable light.
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Extensions
Apr 10, 2021 15:06:06 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 10, 2021 15:06:06 GMT -5
I have advocated trading CVaz in the past, but now I have backed off that position. I think they could be better next year than I expected if Houck, Pivetta, and Whitlock all continue to throw well. Purge the dross, get a few OBP guys, have Sale, business time. And... I don’t think they would trade him, even if they are out of it come July. I suspect they to longer want to take big backward steps in the rebuild unless they have to (eg, someone they don’t think they can extend). Agreed. I love that two somewhat under the radar Bloom acquisitions have almost immediately worked their way into this conversation. Makes me even more excited to get a look at Seabold, Downs, Benny PTBNLs. Something about seabold really excites me. He has that Bieber feel. A pitcher that locates well and seems to just be steady eddy. And I believe I had read his fastball had a 2-3 mph uptick where he’s now 95 plus.
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Extensions
Apr 10, 2021 15:13:40 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 10, 2021 15:13:40 GMT -5
Agreed. I love that two somewhat under the radar Bloom acquisitions have almost immediately worked their way into this conversation. Makes me even more excited to get a look at Seabold, Downs, Benny PTBNLs. I love that a Dombrowski extension (Eovaldi) and draft pick (Houck) both appear to have been great moves. If Groome or Ward ever work out, and if Casas is up, people may look back on DD’s restocking through the draft in a far more favorable light. Eovaldi is eovaldi. He pitches great when healthy but 8-9 months we will talk about how he’s injured or working his way back from injury. When healthy he has shown he has potential cy young stuff. Houck has 3-5 upside. I think casas will be a stud. Dombrowski picked up some pieces. ( you forgot to mention duran). But he never added the depth where he could trade 2-4 pieces every trade and keep long term prospects filtering into the system every year.
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Post by shagworthy on Apr 10, 2021 15:41:07 GMT -5
I will always temper my praise when it comes to Eovaldi. He's had some good moments when healthy, but I don't understand why anyone thinks he's more than just a #4, #5 starter up to this point. If the word on the street is true, and his ball is moving more now, and his pitch combination is better, I will revise, but what I see is a guy who throws the ball really hard, and against top offenses, gets hit really hard at some point. It's hard to get wrapped up in the economics of the game now, because I truly don't know if he was an overpay or accurately valued in the market anymore, with the money that some of these guys are getting.
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Extensions
Apr 10, 2021 15:49:18 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Apr 10, 2021 15:49:18 GMT -5
I will always temper my praise when it comes to Eovaldi. He's had some good moments when healthy, but I don't understand why anyone thinks he's more than just a #4, #5 starter up to this point. If the word on the street is true, and his ball is moving more now, and his pitch combination is better, I will revise, but what I see is a guy who throws the ball really hard, and against top offenses, gets hit really hard at some point. It's hard to get wrapped up in the economics of the game now, because I truly don't know if he was an overpay or accurately valued in the market anymore, with the money that some of these guys are getting. I should revise/walk back... ok, Eovaldi has downside that acknowledge, but the point is that as extensions go, what seemed awful may end up being a good value. If Eovaldi is healthy this year, there is a good chance his salary is a relative bargain. That was all I really meant there. And it is part of the “extension” thread because sometimes it is easy to scoff one way or the other on decisions, but it can take the length of a deal to know if it was worth it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 10, 2021 16:17:06 GMT -5
I love that a Dombrowski extension (Eovaldi) and draft pick (Houck) both appear to have been great moves. If Groome or Ward ever work out, and if Casas is up, people may look back on DD’s restocking through the draft in a far more favorable light. Eovaldi is eovaldi. He pitches great when healthy but 8-9 months we will talk about how he’s injured or working his way back from injury. When healthy he has shown he has potential cy young stuff. Houck has 3-5 upside. I think casas will be a stud. Dombrowski picked up some pieces. ( you forgot to mention duran). But he never added the depth where he could trade 2-4 pieces every trade and keep long term prospects filtering into the system every year. Guys usually take 3-5 years to get ready after being drafted or signed. I think the blame is more on Ben and that great farm system. All the pitchers has yet to develop even now. I mean DD only traded one big piece in Moncada. Look at Bloom last year, he wasn't able to restock the system while trying to win. Now give him a year were the team sucked and he could sell off players and he's done a great job. DD didn't have that opportunity. DD didn't get the chance to pick up the #4 guy in the rule five draft because his team was so bad. DD gets blamed for way too much crap on this board.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 10, 2021 17:34:06 GMT -5
DD gets blamed for way too much crap on this board. I blame him for 2018. The most dominant year of Boston baseball. Ever.
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Extensions
Apr 10, 2021 19:40:30 GMT -5
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Post by dyoungteach on Apr 10, 2021 19:40:30 GMT -5
Eovaldi is eovaldi. He pitches great when healthy but 8-9 months we will talk about how he’s injured or working his way back from injury. When healthy he has shown he has potential cy young stuff. Houck has 3-5 upside. I think casas will be a stud. Dombrowski picked up some pieces. ( you forgot to mention duran). But he never added the depth where he could trade 2-4 pieces every trade and keep long term prospects filtering into the system every year. Guys usually take 3-5 years to get ready after being drafted or signed. I think the blame is more on Ben and that great farm system. All the pitchers has yet to develop even now. I mean DD only traded one big piece in Moncada. Look at Bloom last year, he wasn't able to restock the system while trying to win. Now give him a year were the team sucked and he could sell off players and he's done a great job. DD didn't have that opportunity. DD didn't get the chance to pick up the #4 guy in the rule five draft because his team was so bad. DD gets blamed for way too much crap on this board. He gets blamed for blowing up a farm system, blowing up payroll to tops in majors ( with no plan in place to bring it down so team could stay competitive for quality players), and for thinking to much about the here and now and not 2 years from now. I actually think he found some good gems in draft. But internationally they found nothing so far. And his signings spent far to much money on not enough production. He did exact same thing in Florida and Detroit. Will be interesting to see what he does in Philadelphia
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