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Royals/Mets Prospect Watch
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2021 13:12:14 GMT -5
Love this thread. Look forward to looking back at it when we hear who the PTBNLs are.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 24, 2021 13:14:08 GMT -5
Love this thread. Look forward to looking back at it when we hear who the PTBNLs are. Cosign. Great Work Addam603 for compiling these stats each week
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Post by Addam603 on May 24, 2021 14:48:48 GMT -5
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,775
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Post by mobaz on May 25, 2021 6:54:33 GMT -5
I feel a little bit for the prospect nerds at RoyalsProspects.com and MetsProspects.com who are probably worried the growth in the guys mentioned in this thread will be reaped by another team if they happen to be on the PTBNL lists. If we had a PTBNL payout hanging over our heads we'd be thinking differently about Brayan Bello or Howlett, or Cannon or Dearden's hot starts after 2 years off. Really hoping for our sakes the Sox scouts got the lists "right" and we'll have some good options.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 26, 2021 10:23:18 GMT -5
Junior Santos had another rough outing yesterday: 1 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 26, 2021 11:03:11 GMT -5
Tylor Megill looks like the only guy they might get that would make them the clear winners of the Lee swap.
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Post by Addam603 on May 26, 2021 11:32:28 GMT -5
It's not Monday, but it's a slow day so why not. Taking a deeper dive into the Royals system because their two prospects that are coming back our way are a bit more unknown and likely a little lower on the rankings list. By Fangraphs FV grades, the Royals system looks like this - 60 grade: 1
- 55 grade: 1
- 50 grade: 1
- 45+ grade: 1
- 45 grade: 5
- 40+ grade: 7
- 40 grade: 19
- 35+ grade: 16
Basically, they've got a couple great prospects, but the majority are in that 35+ to 40 range. 40 grade prospects are 17 to 35 and 35+ are ranked 35 to 51. At the most, I would expect either of the prospects coming back would be in that range. If we end up getting a higher prospect, fantastic. Good news, at least by Fangraphs FV grades, there's not a big difference between the prospects ranked in the late teens to the early 30s.
One interesting thing I noticed is that most of these 35+ to 40 ranked players are in rookie ball. Fangraphs does tend to put a lot of stock into the younger guys in that range, but the Royals have a decent number of guys in the lower minors.
So if the thought is that the Red Sox are getting back a couple of younger guys in that 30-50 range of prospects, the Royals have the kind of system where there is some depth there. Couple of interesting names/ideas from that range in the Royals system SS Wilmin Candelario (Fangraphs: 18, MLB: NR) Toolsy guy with some speed and pop (11 steals and 19 XBH in 49 games in 2019). Sketchy hit tool. 19 years old SP Noah Murdock (FG: 33, MLB: 13) Tall (6'8") pitcher with 2 plus pitches and at least another average. Good K and BB numbers. Had TJ in college and hasn't pitched in full season ball this year as a 22 year old. C Omar Hernandez (FG: 39, MLB NR) 19 year old catcher in A ball. Has potential future tools of 50 for average, 40 for power and 55 for field. Currently showing solid bat-to-ball skills for a teenager in A ball. P Samuel Valeria (FG: 40, MLB: 28) High riser in 2020 instructional league. Plus FB at 19 (FG has it 60/70, MLB has it 75), with a chance to go higher. 3 pitch mix with developing secondaries. Very high ceiling. Will pitch in rookie ball. SS Omar Florentino (FG: 44, MLB NR) Future grades of above average hit, with plus speed and field. Not a lot of power, but did have 13 XBH in rookie ball in 2019 along with 14 SB. Good K and BB numbers. SP Woo-Young Jin (FG: 49, MLB: NR) Good K numbers in rookie ball in 2019. FB, CB, splitter with a 70 FG on the splitter. 20 years old, will pitch in rookie ball this year.
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Post by jdb on May 26, 2021 12:50:54 GMT -5
Is there a specific date this will happen? I believe reports had about a month worth of MILB games to scout the systems.
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Post by Addam603 on May 26, 2021 12:59:34 GMT -5
Is there a specific date this will happen? I believe reports had about a month worth of MILB games to scout the systems. The trade went down on February 10th, so the generic 6 months for a PTBNL would push us into August. Considering that rookie ball isn't going to start until June 28th reportedly, I wouldn't expect anything until mid-July at the earliest. But no official date has ever been said to my knowledge.
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 26, 2021 13:10:46 GMT -5
On May 6th Peter Gammons wrote: "Boston, for instance, which has three minor leaguers due to them in a month from trades with the Mets and Royals, has begun in-person scouting at the facilities."
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 26, 2021 13:28:53 GMT -5
3 Royals prospects cracked BA's Hotsheet for their performances last week. Nick Pratto- former #10 overall pick as a HS 1B, who's struggled in 2019 really concerned scouts. But had a decent Alt Site last yr, and then turned heads during ST this year. He's now 22, and seems to have his prospect status back on track. The more I think about it, he' be a name I wouldn't be surprised if he were on the list, b/c his stock in Feb looked a lot different, but also a profile I don't think they'd covet. MJ Melendez, their top C, who we've discussed plenty of times before. And Edward Olivares, a 25 year old OF, and former Padre prospect. Quite similar profile to Franchy, and not someone that likely was part of the PTBNL pool. link
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Post by ramireja on May 26, 2021 13:41:33 GMT -5
I've mentioned it before but I think its worth repeating....I really don't think they wanted to turn Benintendi into 5 players that need 40-man protection within the next year. Franchy and Winckowski already fit that bill. They're already going to have a bit of a 40-man crunch with a less than ideal number of guys who need 40-man protection and yet aren't quite ready to contribute to our own 25/26-man roster (although this will be an issue league-wide due to the lost minor league season). Still, I'd be willing to wager that the remaining PTBNLs (or at least 2 of the 3) are lower-level types who won't require 40-man protection this year. That may mean that a guy like Tylor Megill wasn't considered, but who knows...maybe I'm overthinking things.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 14:20:35 GMT -5
On May 6th Peter Gammons wrote: "Boston, for instance, which has three minor leaguers due to them in a month from trades with the Mets and Royals, has begun in-person scouting at the facilities." For whatever it's worth, he also said there's a list and the gist I've gotten is that's probably not quite right, although I didn't get details.
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Post by incandenza on May 26, 2021 14:30:17 GMT -5
On May 6th Peter Gammons wrote: "Boston, for instance, which has three minor leaguers due to them in a month from trades with the Mets and Royals, has begun in-person scouting at the facilities." For whatever it's worth, he also said there's a list and the gist I've gotten is that's probably not quite right, although I didn't get details. Well what does that mean? The teams haven't decided on who the PTBNLs might be? Doesn't that give the other teams leverage over the Sox, since they've already gotten the players they were going to get in the deal?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 14:35:18 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, he also said there's a list and the gist I've gotten is that's probably not quite right, although I didn't get details. Well what does that mean? The teams haven't decided on who the PTBNLs might be? Doesn't that give the other teams leverage over the Sox, since they've already gotten the players they were going to get in the deal? Not necessarily. Like I said, I don't have details beyond being told the list thing isn't quite right, but one situation might be anyone but players on a list. Or rather than a list of players, the teams agreed upon criteria. I agree with you - it wouldn't make sense for it to be "we'll work out the details later" and that's not what Bloom said was the case anyway. (See "significant compensation" for Theo...) Like I could see the Royals saying two players but not anyone from this list of 15 or 20 guys or whatever. But again, this is all speculation.
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Post by Addam603 on May 26, 2021 14:39:51 GMT -5
Well what does that mean? The teams haven't decided on who the PTBNLs might be? Doesn't that give the other teams leverage over the Sox, since they've already gotten the players they were going to get in the deal? Not necessarily. Like I said, I don't have details beyond being told the list thing isn't quite right, but one situation might be anyone but players on a list. Or rather than a list of players, the teams agreed upon criteria. I agree with you - it wouldn't make sense for it to be "we'll work out the details later" and that's not what Bloom said was the case anyway. (See "significant compensation" for Theo...) Like I could see the Royals saying two players but not anyone from this list of 15 or 20 guys or whatever. But again, this is all speculation. I would actually prefer that situation personally. By having a list of 4-5 guys, you're really limited. By saying that we can have two players except for that list, then that gives us a much larger pool of potential players that could break out.
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Post by incandenza on May 26, 2021 14:42:33 GMT -5
Well what does that mean? The teams haven't decided on who the PTBNLs might be? Doesn't that give the other teams leverage over the Sox, since they've already gotten the players they were going to get in the deal? Not necessarily. Like I said, I don't have details beyond being told the list thing isn't quite right, but one situation might be anyone but players on a list. Or rather than a list of players, the teams agreed upon criteria. I agree with you - it wouldn't make sense for it to be "we'll work out the details later" and that's not what Bloom said was the case anyway. (See "significant compensation" for Theo...) Like I could see the Royals saying two players but not anyone from this list of 15 or 20 guys or whatever. But again, this is all speculation. Well shoot, that would be even better! I know your example is hypothetical, but I'd rather take "the two best out of anyone not in the top 20" than "the two best out of these 6 specific guys" or whatever.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 26, 2021 17:48:49 GMT -5
Does anyone have insights into the restrictions of trading PTBNL?
Let's say there IS a list of 5 players from the Royals, and 3 of those players are really struggling, what's to prevent the Royals from trading the 2 players who aren't struggling for other assets prior to the Red Sox choosing the PTBNLs? Just a gentleman's handshake? Or maybe it's a 'ya snooze ya lose' situation?
If there is a list of players who are protected, same issue could be the case, but with a lower likelihood of there being a significant fall-off due to the much larger pool of players to choose from.
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Post by wOBA Fett on May 26, 2021 21:57:16 GMT -5
Does anyone have insights into the restrictions of trading PTBNL? Let's say there IS a list of 5 players from the Royals, and 3 of those players are really struggling, what's to prevent the Royals from trading the 2 players who aren't struggling for other assets prior to the Red Sox choosing the PTBNLs? Just a gentleman's handshake? Or maybe it's a 'ya snooze ya lose' situation? If there is a list of players who are protected, same issue could be the case, but with a lower likelihood of there being a significant fall-off due to the much larger pool of players to choose from. Im sure there is a contract prepared by the teams in a PTBNL deal where there is a provision specified players get traded there are more valuable players previously protected players brought into the pool to replace them. The Sox have a legal guy for that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 26, 2021 22:38:16 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time picturing anything that doesn't form a list, even if you don't want to call it that.
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Post by dyoungteach on May 27, 2021 2:27:53 GMT -5
I've mentioned it before but I think its worth repeating....I really don't think they wanted to turn Benintendi into 5 players that need 40-man protection within the next year. Franchy and Winckowski already fit that bill. They're already going to have a bit of a 40-man crunch with a less than ideal number of guys who need 40-man protection and yet aren't quite ready to contribute to our own 25/26-man roster (although this will be an issue league-wide due to the lost minor league season). Still, I'd be willing to wager that the remaining PTBNLs (or at least 2 of the 3) are lower-level types who won't require 40-man protection this year. That may mean that a guy like Tylor Megill wasn't considered, but who knows...maybe I'm overthinking things. That’s a great thought I hadn’t really considered. The next statement only comes from a quote before the trade happened. The Red Sox had an al team interested which would flip back a young potential outfielder and pitchers. To me, this screams royals and the delay was the Lee/Mets end of the deal. So essentially based on what I remember those statements to be, I’m thinking all 3 might just be pitchers.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
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Post by jimoh on May 27, 2021 9:55:17 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time picturing anything that doesn't form a list, even if you don't want to call it that. Yeah, a list of guys you can't take = a list of the rest of the guys that you could take. And is a pretty good situation. So Chris' info is very interesting. The Mets just got OF Billy McKinney from the Brewers for 17-year-old left-hander Pedro Quintana, whom they had signed in January. A blog guessed that Quintana had been someone the Brewers had scouted and hoped to sign.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 27, 2021 10:01:27 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time picturing anything that doesn't form a list, even if you don't want to call it that. Yeah, a list of guys you can't take = a list of the rest of the guys that you could take. And is a pretty good situation. So Chris' info is very interesting. The Mets just got OF Billy McKinney from the Brewers for 17-year-old left-hander Pedro Quintana, whom they had signed in January. A blog guessed that Quintana had been someone the Brewers had scouted and hoped to sign. McKinney was an afterthought and had been DFA. I wouldn't read anything into that trade. The Mets just literally need bodies at this point - he was cut by the Brewers and the Mets literally plugged him in at cleanup.
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Post by chr31ter on May 27, 2021 10:05:57 GMT -5
Junior Santos had another rough outing yesterday: 1 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K. Yeah, I saw that. Wonder if it's the kind of thing where he's so big and lanky that it's still hard for him to keep his delivery consistent. He seems to be very hit or miss from game to game and even inning to inning.
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Post by chr31ter on May 27, 2021 10:15:57 GMT -5
I'm thinking there's a good chance that the Mets and Royals haven't given the Red Sox any sort of "protected" list, yet.
And that when the time comes to finalize the trade, that's when the Red Sox will find out who's in the pool of players they can choose from.
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