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5/7-5/10 Red Sox @ Orioles Thread
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Post by congusgambler33 on May 9, 2021 18:07:13 GMT -5
Umpires hand two in a row to the Yankees. MLB needs robot calls and strikes more than anything else. You are kidding of course. 2 games in a row. 2 walks and a swinging bunt and 2 walks and a single. That is what I call 2 well earned wins.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2021 21:49:37 GMT -5
So, Chavis hits a HR in his first game. He had another one that almost went out. You bench him and don't let him possibly find a groove? Seriously? I guess they’d rather Renfroe than Chavis against the RHP. Seems understandable. Especially given that this is a better defensive lineup, too. Agreed, With Renfroe in right field and Marwin at 2B the defense is better, and Renfroe is hitting .314 in May and now has 4 HRs (hot hand).
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on May 9, 2021 22:00:38 GMT -5
Dept. of misleading narrow victories ... There were 10 balls in that game with EV 96+ and XBA > .500. Sox were 5/8, 2B, 2 HR. O's were 1/2, 2B. Sox had the game's 8 hardest hit balls and 7 of the 8 with the highest xBA.
Renfroes' 113.1 was not the hardest hit ball of the game. Xander's liner to 3B was 113.2 (and .790 xBA).
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When the Sox first seized best record in MLB, there were 5 teams within 1 game of them. Now there's just one (the Cardinals). Biggest division lead, too.
And that division is 10 games over .500. The only team with a better run differential, the White Sox, lead a division that's 13 games under. Those are far and away the best and worst inter-divisional records.
And as I noted a couple of days ago, have we performed neutral in the clutch offensively. The amazing decline in overall offense has masked just how formidable the Four Guys in Need of a Nickname have been.
Sox are now 5 or 6 W, 3 L in games won by a team that fell below 25% Win Probability. Offensive heroes: JDM (walkoff 2B in the 12th against the Rays), Cordero (9th-inning PH 1B that moved the tying run to 3B with a 1 out against the O's), Dalbec (game-tying and go-ahead 2B's to RF in the 5th and 8th in Min), Verdugo (2 out, bases-loaded 1B in the 5th to break tie with the Twins, the next day), Kiké (4 hits including 2-out tie-breaking 1B in the 6th against the White Sox, edging Marwin who had the go-ahead homer in the 8th but a rough day before that), Vazquez (game-tying 1B to SS in the 8th on Friday).
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On a purely subjective note, who is Red Sox player going back to 1962 who had a better hit tool than Raffy Devers? I can't think of one.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2021 22:05:20 GMT -5
If your FIP as a team is that out of line, is it bad luck or bad defense? I’m actually asking genuinely, because I don’t know how that is calculated. I can imagine saying a pitcher out of line with his staff is unlucky... like guys took the day off... but if it is everyone, is there something more than luck? Yeah, defense could be part of it (though they're 4th in AL in UZR/150 and 7th in DRS, and by the eye test they've been pretty good after a rough first week or two). But what I'd say is that if the FIP and ERA are that out of line it's probably not all defense.
On the other hand, they've had probably unsustainable success suppressing homers (0.72 HR/9, waaay ahead of 2nd-place Chicago at 0.94), so maybe the xFIP should be taken as the most predictive number overall.
Yes, the HRs allowed has continued to be very low! Has the makeup of the pitching staff Bloom assembled become a more heavily ground ball producing unit or has the pitching coaches tried to teach pitchers to throw more curves and sinkers to produce ground balls and double plays.....it might be an interesting topic for Eric if the tendency continues (which the starters have done a particularly good job in not allowing HRs).
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2021 22:30:01 GMT -5
Josh "at least he's not Ottavino" Taylor And I wonder why I'm going gray. At least you have hair.....
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 9, 2021 22:30:13 GMT -5
I went into this season neutral, but hopeful (realistically optimistic?). I was thinking having Cora at the helm would settle the players down and bring out the best. It is early, but I didn't see this type of start - 22 wins, best record in baseball. Of course things can change fast, but...this is fun. More fun than the Celtics right now, that's for sure. Really happy for JD, Xander, Raffy and CVaz - they've been on top, then down - but now back up.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2021 22:46:29 GMT -5
I went into this season neutral, but hopeful (realistically optimistic?). I was thinking having Cora at the helm would settle the players down and bring out the best. It is early, but I didn't see this type of start - 22 wins, best record in baseball. Of course things can change fast, but...this is fun. More fun than the Celtics right now, that's for sure. Really happy for JD, Xander, Raffy and CVaz - they've been on top, then down - but now back up. One of the best things is that the roster is very flexible. If Gonzalez and Renfroe end up being productive, as well as others that have more team control, then Bloom can resign them ... same goes for Richards and Barnes. With Pedroia’s money coming off the books, low cost prospects coming up, Sale coming back, a knowledge of what he has on the roster, and CBT reset, Bloom will have more flexibility to spend next year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 10, 2021 1:11:30 GMT -5
ERod and Barnes walk year.
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Post by cheers on May 10, 2021 6:38:36 GMT -5
On a purely subjective note, who is Red Sox player going back to 1962 who had a better hit tool than Raffy Devers? I can't think of one.
Obviously "hit tool" is subjective, but off the top of my head guys that need be considered: Mid to late 70's Fred Lynn, Wade Boggs, briefly Nomar, Mookie? I only remember seeing Yaz in his sunset years, but I'm guessing his hit tool was probably semi-OK in the triple crown year. Note - I get that Raffy probably hasn't hit his prime yet, and could really be an incredible (more) hitter soon. Pretty exciting.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on May 10, 2021 6:39:31 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 10, 2021 6:45:29 GMT -5
On a purely subjective note, who is Red Sox player going back to 1962 who had a better hit tool than Raffy Devers? I can't think of one.
Obviously "hit tool" is subjective, but off the top of my head guys that need be considered: Mid to late 70's Fred Lynn, Wade Boggs, briefly Nomar, Mookie? I only remember seeing Yaz in his sunset years, but I'm guessing his hit tool was probably semi-OK in the triple crown year. Note - I get that Raffy probably hasn't hit his prime yet, and could really be an incredible (more) hitter soon. Pretty exciting. Boggs hands down, Nomar as well. That said, Xander is looking better than I've ever seen him and I'm not referring to the running stats.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 10, 2021 6:50:34 GMT -5
Is it just me, or does Devers defensive play seem to have taken a tick up from where it was the first couple weeks?
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Post by costpet on May 10, 2021 7:20:24 GMT -5
The Yaz, Tony C. combo was pretty exciting while it lasted.
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Post by Canseco on May 10, 2021 7:24:01 GMT -5
Is it just me, or does Devers defensive play seem to have taken a tick up from where it was the first couple weeks? It’s definitely not just you. I’ve noticed the same. He looks quicker and more confident over there.
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Post by threeifbaerga on May 10, 2021 7:48:31 GMT -5
Is it just me, or does Devers defensive play seem to have taken a tick up from where it was the first couple weeks? It’s definitely not just you. I’ve noticed the same. He looks quicker and more confident over there. They mentioned on the radio broadcast that the coaching staff has him in perpetual motion on the defensive side. Just always be moving. Seems to have helped a lot, he's looked pretty good.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 8:30:52 GMT -5
Red Sox with best record in MLB and best ERA and BA in the AL. Is it too early to think about bulking up the lineup with a trade? Their are holes and their are some possible answers in house but those answers have question marks. I know this is early but.... someone brought up Grossman from Detroit the other day and his OB%, 352 career 383 this year. He would be an upgrade leading off and what does Detroit care about winning this year, he could come cheap. Just spitballing and I KNOW it is early but wins count all season and he could be a very good answer to 2 holes. It is too early do anything... never too early to think about it! But here is a question: what do the Sox have to *give*? Grossman, for example, is under contract cheap through next year. I don’t imagine the Tigers want an arm and a leg (beggars can’t and all), but... what would they want? Would the Sox flip a Wallace, say? It would he interesting to see what Bloom would do on the other end of a Workman deal (not, I presume, send a Pivetta/Seabold package, obviously). Grossman isn't a huge get but he would be a very good upgrade leading off and is an adequate OFer defensively. With him leading off it seems that it would have a trickle down effect on the batting order, sometimes a small move adds up to more than the sum. I would be willing to give a prospect in the area of a Wallace, something less and maybe Franchy. That would be 3 maybes for a guy whose worth isn't that great to a team like Detroit in there current form. Once again I am just spitballing and I know Grossman isn't much but he seems like exactly what the Sox could use right about now, not much of a ceiling but a decent floor. A legit OFer that could handle RF in Boston and move around when needed, also a good depth piece as time goes on.
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Post by cheers on May 10, 2021 8:40:31 GMT -5
It is too early do anything... never too early to think about it! But here is a question: what do the Sox have to *give*? Grossman, for example, is under contract cheap through next year. I don’t imagine the Tigers want an arm and a leg (beggars can’t and all), but... what would they want? Would the Sox flip a Wallace, say? It would he interesting to see what Bloom would do on the other end of a Workman deal (not, I presume, send a Pivetta/Seabold package, obviously). Grossman isn't a huge get but he would be a very good upgrade leading off and is an adequate OFer defensively. With him leading off it seems that it would have a trickle down effect on the batting order, sometimes a small move adds up to more than the sum. I would be willing to give a prospect in the area of a Wallace, something less and maybe Franchy. ooo. you'd be willing to give Franchy? What team could possibly resist that offer? Perhaps you could toss in some syphilis to sweeten the pot.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 8:58:47 GMT -5
Grossman isn't a huge get but he would be a very good upgrade leading off and is an adequate OFer defensively. With him leading off it seems that it would have a trickle down effect on the batting order, sometimes a small move adds up to more than the sum. I would be willing to give a prospect in the area of a Wallace, something less and maybe Franchy. ooo. you'd be willing to give Franchy? What team could possibly resist that offer? Perhaps you could toss in some syphilis to sweeten the pot. I know, I know, He is still a guy who could figure it out and be good though. Like me and my 25 handicap, keeping your head down shouldn't be so hard to fix.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 10, 2021 9:12:43 GMT -5
On a purely subjective note, who is Red Sox player going back to 1962 who had a better hit tool than Raffy Devers? I can't think of one.
Obviously "hit tool" is subjective, but off the top of my head guys that need be considered: Mid to late 70's Fred Lynn, Wade Boggs, briefly Nomar, Mookie? I only remember seeing Yaz in his sunset years, but I'm guessing his hit tool was probably semi-OK in the triple crown year. Note - I get that Raffy probably hasn't hit his prime yet, and could really be an incredible (more) hitter soon. Pretty exciting. Well Raffy has the ability to get hits on a very expanded zone. The other guys had better plate awareness and discipline so they had a higher percentage of 'good pitches' to swing at....Perhaps that is part of what Eric is referring to. I wonder how good he could be if he narrowed the zone even a hair and didn't swing so hard...On the double, he had 2 strikes and throttled the swing down....rope!
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Post by jmei on May 10, 2021 9:56:07 GMT -5
If we’re talking hit tool, need to at least mention Pedroia.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 9:56:55 GMT -5
Dept. of misleading narrow victories ... There were 10 balls in that game with EV 96+ and XBA > .500. Sox were 5/8, 2B, 2 HR. O's were 1/2, 2B. Sox had the game's 8 hardest hit balls and 7 of the 8 with the highest xBA.
Renfroes' 113.1 was not the hardest hit ball of the game. Xander's liner to 3B was 113.2 (and .790 xBA). ---
When the Sox first seized best record in MLB, there were 5 teams within 1 game of them. Now there's just one (the Cardinals). Biggest division lead, too. And that division is 10 games over .500. The only team with a better run differential, the White Sox, lead a division that's 13 games under. Those are far and away the best and worst inter-divisional records.
And as I noted a couple of days ago, have we performed neutral in the clutch offensively. The amazing decline in overall offense has masked just how formidable the Four Guys in Need of a Nickname have been. Sox are now 5 or 6 W, 3 L in games won by a team that fell below 25% Win Probability. Offensive heroes: JDM (walkoff 2B in the 12th against the Rays), Cordero (9th-inning PH 1B that moved the tying run to 3B with a 1 out against the O's), Dalbec (game-tying and go-ahead 2B's to RF in the 5th and 8th in Min), Verdugo (2 out, bases-loaded 1B in the 5th to break tie with the Twins, the next day), Kiké (4 hits including 2-out tie-breaking 1B in the 6th against the White Sox, edging Marwin who had the go-ahead homer in the 8th but a rough day before that), Vazquez (game-tying 1B to SS in the 8th on Friday).
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On a purely subjective note, who is Red Sox player going back to 1962 who had a better hit tool than Raffy Devers? I can't think of one.
Define "hit tool" in this instance, please. Seriously. Is it barrels, BA, BABIP or what combination. I firmly believe if Devers could stop pretending he's Vlad Guerrero and acquire better plate discipline, he could lead the league in hitting, slugging and maybe OPB. I think it's been a point of emphasis with him that he just loses focus on, based on the fact that, when he draws walks lately, he looks like he's celebrating - like he's telling Cora: "See, I did it!"
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2021 10:17:28 GMT -5
So it's not clear if you all are talking about hit tools among home grown players, but I'd like to humbly submit:
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 10:19:09 GMT -5
If we’re talking hit tool, need to at least mention Pedroia. That was my thought, exactly. And segues perfectly with the new thread I just posted.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 10:19:53 GMT -5
So it's not clear if you all are talking about hit tools among home grown players, but I'd like to humbly submit: My favorite! Still wear my "Camp Manny - A Happy Place" t-shirt from time to time.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 10, 2021 10:20:58 GMT -5
Devers' O-Swing% of 40.3% is 14th-highest among qualified hitters. That said, his O-Contact% of 70% is 49th, so he's still making contact on those swings (although potentially and probably worse contact?).
That said, his aggressive approach might just be part of the package. His 8.6% called strike percentage is third-lowest among qualified hitters, behind only Albies and Corey Seager. He's aggressive and that's part of why he's successful.
If the aggression comes with .288/.375/.576*, I'm ok with it, although I certainly agree it would be nice if he cut it down a smidge without losing anything...
* - Without actually running the numbers, that he still has a .087 ISOD as aggressive as he is on pitches outside of the zone is kind of impressive, I feel like.
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