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5/28/-5/30 Red Sox vs. Marlins Series Thread
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 29, 2021 9:26:45 GMT -5
The one cautionary note given the high-fives about trading players who have peaked has to do with the CBA. Betts was worth seventy times what he was paid during that great year. The owners understand where the value is and that they can extract that at little cost to the team. Some way has to be found to reduce that gross imbalance. I believe the players understand that now. That will make the negotiations very difficult. Negotiations for the next CBA will be Very, very, very difficult. I hope they do NOT think a strike is a good idea. The work stoppage and no fans in the stands was not what they needed, another stoppage would be even worse.
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Post by tookme55 on May 29, 2021 9:30:11 GMT -5
And don't forget the $15M tab picked up by the Dodgers for Price.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 29, 2021 9:45:31 GMT -5
I think Brewer was brought up to the mlb Red Sox to mop up, but mainly to DFA when Brasier is ready! He has always put too many people on base and given up too much hard contact....very bad combination...
He is easily replaced by many (or most) of the pitching depth at Worcester.
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 9:53:22 GMT -5
And don't forget the $15M tab picked up by the Dodgers for Price. Good point! So that's $40 million+ for Betts and Price that Bloom let go. They've combined for 1.3 fWAR this season.
He got Verdugo directly in exchange for them. Plus he signed Kiké, Renfroe, Santana, Marwin, Richards, and Perez, and essentially bought Ottavino, for a combined ~$38 million. They've combined for 4.5 fWAR this season.
This seems like the fairest way to make the comparison manfred was looking for, though it seems to lead to the opposite conclusion from what he drew from it. (It also doesn't take into account that these are all short-term contracts that allow for much more flexibility going forward, nor does it account for the additions of Downs, Wong, and German.)
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Post by manfred on May 29, 2021 9:53:37 GMT -5
I think the question at hand is more future WAR of guys on the Red Sox Bloom brings in. The OF swap is only part of the picture. But this team is riding inherited horses. It is hard to say great job to a guy who watches X, JDM, and Devers perform out of their heads making up for Franchy, Dalbec, Marwin... Iâve said it before: applaud Bloom for saving John Henry money all you like. But he has to put those savings into a ring before that matters. If people think a downgrade in RF is good because of a $:WAR ratio... that is odd *unless* the saved dollars ADD WAR elsewhere. So far, Bloom hasnât done that part. Fine, give him his tax pass, his bridge pass, his ârebuild the systemâ pass etc. But those will expire at some point, and heâs going to have to field a team that he fully stands behind. Eh? Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo, Santana, Marwin, and Franchy have combined for 2.5 fWAR this season - about twice what Mookie has produced for less than half the cost.
Pivetta, Perez, and Richards have added another 2.7 fWAR and I think that just gets us up to Mookie's total salary. Over 5 WAR in a third of a season.
And this is without taking Bloom's substantial prospect additions into account. What more are you expecting, exactly?
I’m not relitigating. My point is simple: saving money is the easy part when everyone says we don’t expect to win this year anyway. I am not slapping backs until the reset results in a title. I don’t think finding a .2 bWAR 2b is necessarily a stroke of genius. So once the “we don’t expect to win” training wheels are off, let’s see what he does.
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Post by manfred on May 29, 2021 10:04:31 GMT -5
And don't forget the $15M tab picked up by the Dodgers for Price. Good point! So that's $40 million+ for Betts and Price that Bloom let go. They've combined for 1.3 fWAR this season.
He got Verdugo directly in exchange for them. Plus he signed Kiké, Renfroe, Santana, Marwin, Richards, and Perez, and essentially bought Ottavino, for a combined ~$38 million. They've combined for 4.5 fWAR this season.
This seems like the fairest way to make the comparison manfred was looking for, though it seems to lead to the opposite conclusion from what he drew from it. (It also doesn't take into account that these are all short-term contracts that allow for much more flexibility going forward, nor does it account for the additions of Downs, Wong, and German.)
But by the strict $:WAR ratio, you will often do better with mediocre but cheap players. Kiké at 1 WAR for for $6 million is about a Xander at 2.5 WAR for $20 million. But a team that plugs the former in at SS instead of the latter gas saved money... but gotten worse. So those “savings” have to go somewhere. Then, you could field a bunch of WAR-efficient guys — say, Hunter Renfroe, at .6 for $3 million — and save tons. But somewhere along the line, you need to make up the WAR itself. Hence, the top-heavy Sox, with JDM, X, and Devers driving the offense.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 29, 2021 10:05:11 GMT -5
Not meant to be snarky, but David Ortiz War was 55.3.... I only care about this year and future. What will JBJ and Beni’s future WAR be vs who is on the Red Sox I think the question at hand is more future WAR of guys on the Red Sox Bloom brings in. The OF swap is only part of the picture. But this team is riding inherited horses. It is hard to say great job to a guy who watches X, JDM, and Devers perform out of their heads making up for Franchy, Dalbec, Marwin... I’ve said it before: applaud Bloom for saving John Henry money all you like. But he has to put those savings into a ring before that matters. If people think a downgrade in RF is good because of a $:WAR ratio... that is odd *unless* the saved dollars ADD WAR elsewhere. So far, Bloom hasn’t done that part. Fine, give him his tax pass, his bridge pass, his “rebuild the system” pass etc. But those will expire at some point, and he’s going to have to field a team that he fully stands behind. You raise a reasonable question. It's one that I toss around in my Sox-obsessed, little head quite often. Once the RS shed some of the bad contracts that are weighing them down and bring in more impact, low-cost guys from the farm, they should have more money to spend on big-name acquisitions. How good will CB be at using that flexibility to bring in the right higher-salaried vets? The answer is TBD. We don't know yet. I think JWH brought him to town in the hope that he could turn the RS into Tampa with money. Andrew Friedman has done this with the Dodgers. They've developed stars like it's nobody business, but also throw their economic weight around with a big payroll.
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 11:27:45 GMT -5
Good point! So that's $40 million+ for Betts and Price that Bloom let go. They've combined for 1.3 fWAR this season.
He got Verdugo directly in exchange for them. Plus he signed Kiké, Renfroe, Santana, Marwin, Richards, and Perez, and essentially bought Ottavino, for a combined ~$38 million. They've combined for 4.5 fWAR this season.
This seems like the fairest way to make the comparison manfred was looking for, though it seems to lead to the opposite conclusion from what he drew from it. (It also doesn't take into account that these are all short-term contracts that allow for much more flexibility going forward, nor does it account for the additions of Downs, Wong, and German.)
But by the strict $:WAR ratio, you will often do better with mediocre but cheap players. Kiké at 1 WAR for for $6 million is about a Xander at 2.5 WAR for $20 million. But a team that plugs the former in at SS instead of the latter gas saved money... but gotten worse. So those âsavingsâ have to go somewhere. Then, you could field a bunch of WAR-efficient guys â say, Hunter Renfroe, at .6 for $3 million â and save tons. But somewhere along the line, you need to make up the WAR itself. Hence, the top-heavy Sox, with JDM, X, and Devers driving the offense. But he has "made up the WAR itself." Verdugo alone is only slightly behind Betts in WAR. And then Kiké and Renfroe are both on close to a 2 WAR pace. Richards/Perez are on pace for 5 WAR combined. I honestly don't understand what you're asking for beyond that. So you tell me: what could Bloom have done to take the Betts/Price savings and invested them to your satisfaction?
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Post by foreverred9 on May 29, 2021 11:42:16 GMT -5
But by the strict $:WAR ratio, you will often do better with mediocre but cheap players. Kiké at 1 WAR for for $6 million is about a Xander at 2.5 WAR for $20 million. But a team that plugs the former in at SS instead of the latter gas saved money... but gotten worse. So those “savings” have to go somewhere. Then, you could field a bunch of WAR-efficient guys — say, Hunter Renfroe, at .6 for $3 million — and save tons. But somewhere along the line, you need to make up the WAR itself. Hence, the top-heavy Sox, with JDM, X, and Devers driving the offense. The way I'd frame up your argument is that there's two components of a teams payroll - the high-dollar players and the supporting cast. I think we can all agree that Bloom has done great on maximize value with the supporting cast side of the roster build. The jury is still out on him maximizing results with the 7-9 players we'll have on the books each year at 10M+. It's incomplete, as the only player of our current 7 that he has had control over is Richards. The key upcoming decisions will be: - 2021 Offseason - Pedroia contract comes off the books, Richards option, ERod free agent, JDM opt-out?, Devers extension?
- 2022 Offseason - Price contract comes off the books, Xander opt-out?, Sale opt-out?, Eovaldi free agent
ADD: for reference, here's the players on our books with a salary of 10M+ between 2014 and 2023 forum.soxprospects.com/post/442666
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Post by foreverred9 on May 29, 2021 11:55:37 GMT -5
But by the strict $:WAR ratio, you will often do better with mediocre but cheap players. Kiké at 1 WAR for for $6 million is about a Xander at 2.5 WAR for $20 million. But a team that plugs the former in at SS instead of the latter gas saved money... but gotten worse. So those “savings” have to go somewhere. Then, you could field a bunch of WAR-efficient guys — say, Hunter Renfroe, at .6 for $3 million — and save tons. But somewhere along the line, you need to make up the WAR itself. Hence, the top-heavy Sox, with JDM, X, and Devers driving the offense. I'd also add, what you're identifying (shifting from Mookie to a bunch of mediocre plugs) is a function of us needing to get under the salary cap this year. It's hard to be critical of Bloom for not using those savings this past offseason. In reality, those savings should get deployed this upcoming offseason, when they can go over the luxury tax again and add an 8th salary of 10M+ (maybe 9). If we don't go over, I hope to hear that's an ownership mandate rather than a Bloom decision.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 29, 2021 12:00:02 GMT -5
As someone who has praised almost all of Bloom moves as being obvious surplus value accumulating victories, I would like to go on record that I'm not going to give him much credit for having his acquisitions outperform projections by a lot so far. I think that's mostly just good fortune.
I expect to be able to redeem this restraint when he signs Trevor Story to a reasonable contract and he immediately becomes a -1 WAR player and everyone in the world acts like that was obviously going to happen.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 29, 2021 12:01:54 GMT -5
I'd add that Verdugo and possibly Downs will be what you refer to as high-value players, if by that you mean those who can generate, say, 3+ wins a year. Those players are worth the extra money you pay to keep them around. There may be other acquisitions that eventually fall into that category as well. Pivetta, who should easily surpass his career 2+ WAR this season (barring injury), also falls into that category. He's arb-eligible in 2022 and I expect he'll be one of those on his way $10 million given his start this year.
The FO has already re-filled the cupboard to some extent - my opinion. That's before taking Seabold into consideration. If he's healthy, he may be another player whose worth rises above that mark. It's conjecture, but I'd guess extensions through mid-career high-water marks is where this iteration of the Sox will try to build overall value.
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Post by manfred on May 29, 2021 12:48:03 GMT -5
But by the strict $:WAR ratio, you will often do better with mediocre but cheap players. Kiké at 1 WAR for for $6 million is about a Xander at 2.5 WAR for $20 million. But a team that plugs the former in at SS instead of the latter gas saved money... but gotten worse. So those âsavingsâ have to go somewhere. Then, you could field a bunch of WAR-efficient guys â say, Hunter Renfroe, at .6 for $3 million â and save tons. But somewhere along the line, you need to make up the WAR itself. Hence, the top-heavy Sox, with JDM, X, and Devers driving the offense. But he has "made up the WAR itself." Verdugo alone is only slightly behind Betts in WAR. And then Kiké and Renfroe are both on close to a 2 WAR pace. Richards/Perez are on pace for 5 WAR combined. I honestly don't understand what you're asking for beyond that. So you tell me: what could Bloom have done to take the Betts/Price savings and invested them to your satisfaction? I am not saying he should have done more this season. Hence my reference to the pass. But I’m saying I don’t applaud my contractor for tearing out my old kitchen.... I wait to see the new one. The taking the hammer to things is not that hard. Put it this way: how *little* do you think *you* would get if you were tasked with trading Mookie? Or this past off season, if your task was don’t spend a lot but don’t worry about finishing in first place, would you be able to sign a Marwin Gonzalez, a Hunter Renfroe etc.? But the question is: will these deck chair shuffles result in a ring in the next 2-3 years? People say “hey, these contracts will be off the books.” Good, ok. So CB’s real job is ahead: lots of money cleared, many open positions, many decisions. THAT is when he should be judged. Just consider the questions swirling around JDM, X, and Devers. If one or more of those guys goes, what to do? I am not *criticizing* — I was totally on the don’t-bother side this winter. Hell, I’d have just as soon have spent even less! But I am not going to give credit until the plan actually comes together. Add: yeah, Forevered sums it up well.
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 13:09:01 GMT -5
But he has "made up the WAR itself." Verdugo alone is only slightly behind Betts in WAR. And then Kiké and Renfroe are both on close to a 2 WAR pace. Richards/Perez are on pace for 5 WAR combined. I honestly don't understand what you're asking for beyond that. So you tell me: what could Bloom have done to take the Betts/Price savings and invested them to your satisfaction? I am not saying he should have done more this season. Hence my reference to the pass. But I’m saying I don’t applaud my contractor for tearing out my old kitchen.... I wait to see the new one. The taking the hammer to things is not that hard. Put it this way: how *little* do you think *you* would get if you were tasked with trading Mookie? Or this past off season, if your task was don’t spend a lot but don’t worry about finishing in first place, would you be able to sign a Marwin Gonzalez, a Hunter Renfroe etc.? But the question is: will these deck chair shuffles result in a ring in the next 2-3 years? People say “hey, these contracts will be off the books.” Good, ok. So CB’s real job is ahead: lots of money cleared, many open positions, many decisions. THAT is when he should be judged. Just consider the questions swirling around JDM, X, and Devers. If one or more of those guys goes, what to do? I am not *criticizing* — I was totally on the don’t-bother side this winter. Hell, I’d have just as soon have spent even less! But I am not going to give credit until the plan actually comes together. Add: yeah, Forevered sums it up well. Well I've just never shared this premise that so many people seem to accept that this season was a mulligan or a bridge year or whatever. I've thought all along that the goal for this season was to make the team as good as possible and compete for a playoff spot without sacrificing the future quality of the team, and I think he's done a good job of that.
It's true that I don't think we can judge whatever his 5-year or 10-year plan is, because it hasn't been 5 or 10 years yet. But another question we can ask is "did he do a good job of allocating payroll in 2021?" and I think the answer to that is: yes, overall. Especially considering that there were some potential minefields out there. (Does anyone still wish we had signed Ozuna or Odorizzi or Yates... or JBJ, for that matter? Or even Kluber?)
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,850
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 29, 2021 13:15:28 GMT -5
But he has "made up the WAR itself." Verdugo alone is only slightly behind Betts in WAR. And then Kiké and Renfroe are both on close to a 2 WAR pace. Richards/Perez are on pace for 5 WAR combined. I honestly don't understand what you're asking for beyond that. So you tell me: what could Bloom have done to take the Betts/Price savings and invested them to your satisfaction? I am not saying he should have done more this season. Hence my reference to the pass. But I’m saying I don’t applaud my contractor for tearing out my old kitchen.... I wait to see the new one. The taking the hammer to things is not that hard. Put it this way: how *little* do you think *you* would get if you were tasked with trading Mookie? Or this past off season, if your task was don’t spend a lot but don’t worry about finishing in first place, would you be able to sign a Marwin Gonzalez, a Hunter Renfroe etc.? I am not *criticizing* — I was totally on the don’t-bother side this winter. Hell, I’d have just as soon have spent even less! But I am not going to give credit until the plan actually comes together. WHAT?! HUH?! You're in "The OF This Year" thread right now arguning that he should have signed Brantley. I asked you how he could have done that and stayed below the LT threshold and await your response.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 29, 2021 13:42:55 GMT -5
The one cautionary note given the high-fives about trading players who have peaked has to do with the CBA. Betts was worth seventy times what he was paid during that great year. The owners understand where the value is and that they can extract that at little cost to the team. Some way has to be found to reduce that gross imbalance. I believe the players understand that now. That will make the negotiations very difficult. Negotiations for the next CBA will be Very, very, very difficult. I hope they do NOT think a strike is a good idea. The work stoppage and no fans in the stands was not what they needed, another stoppage would be even worse. And just to pile on the subject: MLB is looking at a new CBA that should be precedent setting in many areas. The pressure to find solutions and middle ground could not be greater considering the past year+ not to mention all that has led up to this point. Change is never easy and their needs to be change. Much more could be said but their is a thread for that I haven't seen in a while.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 29, 2021 13:50:26 GMT -5
Here's how I look at it:
A team full of replacement level players costs $30 million and gets you 48 wins. If you take that team, and buy free agent wins up to the luxury tax limit, you're at 68. The draft pick penalty limit gets you to 73.
Chaim's job is to find 25-30 surplus value wins every year to get them to the mid-high 90s. Most of the surplus value wins come from pre-free agency players and everyone in the league is chasing them. It's a super high variance process and for the most part it takes a long time for any effort to bare fruit.
The only high profile Chain Bloom move was an obvious surplus value bonanza from day one. Beyond that, he's consistently pulled small amounts of wins out of thin air. I mean come on, Hunter Renfroe signed for $3 million with two team option years. Ultimately though, these efforts are dwarfed by things like whether Triston Casas turns into Freddie Freeman or Mitch Moreland.
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Post by manfred on May 29, 2021 14:15:57 GMT -5
I am not saying he should have done more this season. Hence my reference to the pass. But I’m saying I don’t applaud my contractor for tearing out my old kitchen.... I wait to see the new one. The taking the hammer to things is not that hard. Put it this way: how *little* do you think *you* would get if you were tasked with trading Mookie? Or this past off season, if your task was don’t spend a lot but don’t worry about finishing in first place, would you be able to sign a Marwin Gonzalez, a Hunter Renfroe etc.? I am not *criticizing* — I was totally on the don’t-bother side this winter. Hell, I’d have just as soon have spent even less! But I am not going to give credit until the plan actually comes together. WHAT?! HUH?! You're in "The OF This Year" thread right now arguning that he should have signed Brantley. I asked you how he could have done that and stayed below the LT threshold and await your response. First, you or someone suggested there were no OF options, and I offered one up. In literally one word. It was not a criticism so much as an alternative. Second, obviously there were many moving pieces. Don’t sign Renfroe, don’t trade for Ottavino... you are a long way towards Brantley. ($12 of $16 million). Is that for the best? Dunno. But I was offering an alternative. I was hardly in some pitchfork brigade.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 29, 2021 15:11:34 GMT -5
I think the question at hand is more future WAR of guys on the Red Sox Bloom brings in. The OF swap is only part of the picture. But this team is riding inherited horses. It is hard to say great job to a guy who watches X, JDM, and Devers perform out of their heads making up for Franchy, Dalbec, Marwin... Iâve said it before: applaud Bloom for saving John Henry money all you like. But he has to put those savings into a ring before that matters. If people think a downgrade in RF is good because of a $:WAR ratio... that is odd *unless* the saved dollars ADD WAR elsewhere. So far, Bloom hasnât done that part. Fine, give him his tax pass, his bridge pass, his ârebuild the systemâ pass etc. But those will expire at some point, and heâs going to have to field a team that he fully stands behind. Eh? Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo, Santana, Marwin, and Franchy have combined for 2.5 fWAR this season - about twice what Mookie has produced for less than half the cost.
Pivetta, Perez, and Richards have added another 2.7 fWAR and I think that just gets us up to Mookie's total salary. Over 5 WAR in a third of a season.
And this is without taking Bloom's substantial prospect additions into account. What more are you expecting, exactly?
is this really a cogent point ? i get what your saying, i think. that the money being spread over more players is yielding more fWar. But your got like 8-10 guys. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) Is that a fair comparison ? I really don't think so. There is a 40 man roster and 25/26 roster. You have to fill the spots. Put another way. If you had Mookie producing 5 fwar right now....wouldn't adding another 7-8 guys to that fWar blow this point out of the water ?
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Post by incandenza on May 29, 2021 15:23:22 GMT -5
Eh? Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo, Santana, Marwin, and Franchy have combined for 2.5 fWAR this season - about twice what Mookie has produced for less than half the cost.
Pivetta, Perez, and Richards have added another 2.7 fWAR and I think that just gets us up to Mookie's total salary. Over 5 WAR in a third of a season.
And this is without taking Bloom's substantial prospect additions into account. What more are you expecting, exactly?
is this really a cogent point ? i get what your saying, i think. that the money being spread over more players is yielding more fWar. But your got like 8-10 guys. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) Is that a fair comparison ? I really don't think so. There is a 40 man roster and 25/26 roster. You have to fill the spots. Put another way. If you had Mookie producing 5 fwar right now....wouldn't adding another 7-8 guys blow this point out of the water ? If Mookie had produced 5 WAR in a third of a season, then yes, the Red Sox current roster would look worse by comparison.
I think what you're getting at, though, is that there's a cost to reproducing the value of one player when you use up several roster spots to do it? That's a fair point, but I was just responding to manfred's claim that Bloom hadn't used the Betts/Price savings on reproducing their value, when in fact I think he obviously has. It's spread over more roster spots, but it's also more WAR.
Or just look at it this way: imagine that Betts and Price were still on the roster but the team had $0 to spend on the roster spots currently being used by Kiké, Marwin, Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Sawamura, Andriese, and Ottavino. Would that team be better or worse than what we have now?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2021 15:27:00 GMT -5
Forecast has a dry spell starting at about 6 PM. They should be able to get this game in. Sunday looks impossible.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 29, 2021 15:37:09 GMT -5
Eovaldi is a stud
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 29, 2021 15:43:15 GMT -5
If Mookie had produced 5 WAR in a third of a season, then yes, the Red Sox current roster would look worse by comparison.
I think what you're getting at, though, is that there's a cost to reproducing the value of one player when you use up several roster spots to do it? That's a fair point, but I was just responding to manfred's claim that Bloom hadn't used the Betts/Price savings on reproducing their value, when in fact I think he obviously has. It's spread over more roster spots, but it's also more WAR.
Or just look at it this way: imagine that Betts and Price were still on the roster but the team had $0 to spend on the roster spots currently being used by Kiké, Marwin, Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Sawamura, Andriese, and Ottavino. Would that team be better or worse than what we have now?
i guess that would depend on who the players actually were. However, Chaim is fielding a winning club with some of the production coming from his depth acquisitions. That certainly deserves credit. But because the roster spots have to be filled, is it really possible to say with any certainty that Price and Betts, along with whatever roster filler was available, would be better or worse than what he has put together now. He has greater options with payroll flexibility, that is for sure, and that is probably a better option to put together a contending club.
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Post by manfred on May 29, 2021 15:48:52 GMT -5
Wow! That last fastball to Dickerson had a run to it I don’t recall with Eovaldi. Unhittable.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,637
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Post by cdj on May 29, 2021 15:55:11 GMT -5
Ok this Rogers guy is legit
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