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5/31/-6/3 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 1, 2021 16:44:20 GMT -5
Defense aside I can't abide by a lineup that has both Dalbec and Marwin in it for much longer. If one of them has to play, I think the nod has to go to Marwin for the time being and Dalbec either should only face lefties(which he's faired much better against) or he should be sent down to work under less scrutiny (a-la the Franchy-express). I still don't like Kiké in the leadoff spot and no amount of casual statistics are going to sway me that he belongs there. But all in all I like what they've done this year, I certainly didn't peg them for being in the conversation of divisional leaders so my dislike of the lineup structure is tempered with the results. I really wonder if now isn't a good time to phantom IL Eddie so he can build arm strength, his last few outings were brutal, like the opponent knew what was coming EVERY single time. I think the team can do just as well right now with a Whitlock/Andreise pen game in Eddie's spot until he's pitching with more confidence/stuff. .....not saying I like Hernandez leading off, but if you do not like it please suggest another option....(Cora seems to like 2-5 as Verdugo, JD, X, Devers, so those options are off limits). It does not leave many options...... I agree with a DL/IL for E-Rod and I do not think it has to be phantom. The RS can call it “covid related” as it as a catch all that is a blank check excuse that works for EVERYTHING no questions ask!
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Post by Guidas on Jun 1, 2021 16:51:28 GMT -5
and this is going to happen to every hitter on the team during 162 games, and when you only have 3 to 4 good hitters and everyone else is close to replacement level or below, there is no one in the lineup to pick them up. This is one way losing streaks can occur, especially if none of the other 2 to 3 are on a hot streak You might want to update your sense of where this roster is at, now that Renfroe is hitting and Cordero is in Worcester. Here are the wRC+'s of the guys outside of the top 4 who you're deescribing as "close to replacement level or below": Santana 115 Renfroe 104 Arroyo 96 Plawecki 93
Kiké 89 Vazquez 80 Dalbec 76 Marwin 61 Santana is still in SSS territory, and I'm actually a little worried that this is basically what we can expect from Vazquez with the deader ball. Nonetheless, the only real black holes here are Dalbec and Marwin. And they've both been getting fewer PAs lately.
I see that as less than a playoff team, personally, and I really believe if you've gotten this far you need to see it forward at that level because, as we've discussed, any "cores" after this year are fiction and projection. I went back to look at the better teams from 2003 to 2018 that were Division winners or WS contenders. All those teams, linked below, had players who played at least 100 games have wRC+ over 100 with only a few minor exceptions (noted). If you want to capitalize on their current record and position, you need at least two more (and preferably three more) wRC+ players over 100. Hitters. And you need to get Kiké Hernandez the hell out of the lead-off spot, or the 1-6, quite frankly. Otherwise, you can hope to have a legit contender next year if JDM doesn't opt out. After that, 2023, you have two All Stars (if Xander doesn't opt out) a nice piece in Verdugo and a couple or three possible nice pieces in the system (Durran, Casas and Downs) but we have no idea if any of those guys can be more than MLB average players. Xander, JDM and Devers are all stars. That's your current core. Verdugo is a nice piece who might be an all star one day. Sox need more if they want to get to the playoffs. Otherwise, if JDM doesn't opt out they have one more year with these guys. Then it could literally be years before you have another WS contender. For reference: www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2003(Damon 97 and Walker 98 - mostly less than 100 for defense for both of them) www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2004www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2007(everyone but Coco 85 - with Ellsbury becoming a huge contributor down the stretch wRC+ 136) www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2008(everyone but Coco 97 and Ellsbury 91) www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2016www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2017(everyone but Moreland 98, Vazquez 92 in 99 games but only 6 players with 100+ games and Leon 85 with a wRC+ of 66) www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/stats?season=2018(JBJ 90 and Devers 90 plus the 50 game phenom who was Steve Pearce wRC+143) So if we want to use the wRC+ as an indicator as is done above, then history and data say the Sox are decidedly not a legit contender even if they make the playoffs.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 1, 2021 17:18:38 GMT -5
Defense aside I can't abide by a lineup that has both Dalbec and Marwin in it for much longer. If one of them has to play, I think the nod has to go to Marwin for the time being and Dalbec either should only face lefties(which he's faired much better against) or he should be sent down to work under less scrutiny (a-la the Franchy-express). I still don't like Kiké in the leadoff spot and no amount of casual statistics are going to sway me that he belongs there. But all in all I like what they've done this year, I certainly didn't peg them for being in the conversation of divisional leaders so my dislike of the lineup structure is tempered with the results. I really wonder if now isn't a good time to phantom IL Eddie so he can build arm strength, his last few outings were brutal, like the opponent knew what was coming EVERY single time. I think the team can do just as well right now with a Whitlock/Andreise pen game in Eddie's spot until he's pitching with more confidence/stuff. .....not saying I like Hernandez leading off, but if you do not like it please suggest another option....(Cora seems to like 2-5 as Verdugo, JD, X, Devers, so those options are off limits). It does not leave many options...... I agree with a DL/IL for E-Rod and I do not think it has to be phantom. The RS can call it âcovid relatedâ as it as a catch all that is a blank check excuse that works for EVERYTHING no questions ask! I know Cora has said before..... but I still believe for this team(as currently constructed) Verdugo or Bogey are the better lead off options. They both see more pitches, have better bat control, and both can set the table for the rest of the lineup. To me, Kiké is a classic #9 hitter on a good team. In my mind, ideally you want either a guy who can hit anything (Betts) or a guy who sees pitches and makes a pitcher work right out of the gate (Doogie, Bogey). Just because Cora considers his 2-6 off limits for change, doesn't always mean it's the right choice. I mean, Renfroe and Kiké are essentially the same player statistically, and you wouldn't bat Renfroe up in the lineup. I just feel like Cora is trying to make Kiké into something he isn't. He's a career .311 OBP guy, and that is with a majority of the time having the platoon advantage in his favor. Again, this is all minor in the scope of things, from my recliner I'm cherry picking things I don't like, but whatever, I'm not getting paid what Cora et. all are getting paid and my opinions mean jack schitt to them I'm sure. In a perfect world there is no way you'd lead off with Kiké, maybe that changes when Duran surfaces?(although that's a lot of pressure to heap on a kid freshly called up.) Not factored into this however is Verdugo's health. He seems a bit banged up and playing through it, and maybe that's playing a role in Cora's obstinance on the subject matter. If that's the case behind the scenes, then I'm fine with Cora falling on a sword to protect his players.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 1, 2021 17:30:04 GMT -5
.....not saying I like Hernandez leading off, but if you do not like it please suggest another option....(Cora seems to like 2-5 as Verdugo, JD, X, Devers, so those options are off limits). It does not leave many options...... I agree with a DL/IL for E-Rod and I do not think it has to be phantom. The RS can call it âcovid relatedâ as it as a catch all that is a blank check excuse that works for EVERYTHING no questions ask! I know Cora has said before..... but I still believe for this team(as currently constructed) Verdugo or Bogey are the better lead off options. They both see more pitches, have better bat control, and both can set the table for the rest of the lineup. To me, Kiké is a classic #9 hitter on a good team. In my mind, ideally you want either a guy who can hit anything (Betts) or a guy who sees pitches and makes a pitcher work right out of the gate (Doogie, Bogey). Just because Cora considers his 2-6 off limits for change, doesn't always mean it's the right choice. I mean, Renfroe and Kiké are essentially the same player statistically, and you wouldn't bat Renfroe up in the lineup. I just feel like Cora is trying to make Kiké into something he isn't. He's a career .311 OBP guy, and that is with a majority of the time having the platoon advantage in his favor. Again, this is all minor in the scope of things, from my recliner I'm cherry picking things I don't like, but whatever, I'm not getting paid what Cora et. all are getting paid and my opinions mean jack schitt to them I'm sure. In a perfect world there is no way you'd lead off with Kiké, maybe that changes when Duran surfaces?(although that's a lot of pressure to heap on a kid freshly called up.) Not factored into this however is Verdugo's health. He seems a bit banged up and playing through it, and maybe that's playing a role in Cora's obstinance on the subject matter. If that's the case behind the scenes, then I'm fine with Cora falling on a sword to protect his players. I think it will all be moot point as Duran will be the lead off man before the all-star break. Hernandez and Santana are probably better defensively in CF, but even having Duran in LF when Renfroe plays and in RF when he does not, allows him to enter the Boston lineup (maybe 9 in the batting order to get his feet wet before leading off).
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Post by unitspin on Jun 1, 2021 17:37:36 GMT -5
The way cora plays favorites and takes care of his guys. Chances are we see franchy again before Duran.
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Post by unitspin on Jun 1, 2021 17:42:30 GMT -5
Jeez workman opted out of his minor league deal. It'll be sad to see him go, must already have a better option if he is opting out.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 1, 2021 17:46:29 GMT -5
I know Cora has said before..... but I still believe for this team(as currently constructed) Verdugo or Bogey are the better lead off options. They both see more pitches, have better bat control, and both can set the table for the rest of the lineup. To me, Kiké is a classic #9 hitter on a good team. In my mind, ideally you want either a guy who can hit anything (Betts) or a guy who sees pitches and makes a pitcher work right out of the gate (Doogie, Bogey). Just because Cora considers his 2-6 off limits for change, doesn't always mean it's the right choice. I mean, Renfroe and Kiké are essentially the same player statistically, and you wouldn't bat Renfroe up in the lineup. I just feel like Cora is trying to make Kiké into something he isn't. He's a career .311 OBP guy, and that is with a majority of the time having the platoon advantage in his favor. Again, this is all minor in the scope of things, from my recliner I'm cherry picking things I don't like, but whatever, I'm not getting paid what Cora et. all are getting paid and my opinions mean jack schitt to them I'm sure. In a perfect world there is no way you'd lead off with Kiké, maybe that changes when Duran surfaces?(although that's a lot of pressure to heap on a kid freshly called up.) Not factored into this however is Verdugo's health. He seems a bit banged up and playing through it, and maybe that's playing a role in Cora's obstinance on the subject matter. If that's the case behind the scenes, then I'm fine with Cora falling on a sword to protect his players. I think it will all be moot point as Duran will be the lead off man before the all-star break. Hernandez and Santana are probably better defensively in CF, but even having Duran in LF when Renfroe plays and in RF when he does not, allows him to enter the Boston lineup (maybe 9 in the batting order to get his feet wet before leading off). I would wager Duran fixes our bottom of the order problem first. I don't think they are going to throw this kid to the dogs and bat him leadoff right out of the gate. My guess would be he hits 9th (second leadoff) and has to play his way up to the top of the order, and I think that's fair. I know we all love the kid, and are pretty excited about his potential, but we were also pretty excited about several other guys too, only to watch them fall flat on their face.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2021 17:54:18 GMT -5
Defense aside I can't abide by a lineup that has both Dalbec and Marwin in it for much longer. If one of them has to play, I think the nod has to go to Marwin for the time being and Dalbec either should only face lefties(which he's faired much better against) or he should be sent down to work under less scrutiny (a-la the Franchy-express). I still don't like Kiké in the leadoff spot and no amount of casual statistics are going to sway me that he belongs there. But all in all I like what they've done this year, I certainly didn't peg them for being in the conversation of divisional leaders so my dislike of the lineup structure is tempered with the results. I really wonder if now isn't a good time to phantom IL Eddie so he can build arm strength, his last few outings were brutal, like the opponent knew what was coming EVERY single time. I think the team can do just as well right now with a Whitlock/Andreise pen game in Eddie's spot until he's pitching with more confidence/stuff. .....not saying I like Hernandez leading off, but if you do not like it please suggest another option....(Cora seems to like 2-5 as Verdugo, JD, X, Devers, so those options are off limits). It does not leave many options...... I agree with a DL/IL for E-Rod and I do not think it has to be phantom. The RS can call it “covid related” as it as a catch all that is a blank check excuse that works for EVERYTHING no questions ask! Curious as to why this is the best course of action. If he isn't hurt, i can't see any reason why the Sox would want to do this. He has 2 options if your concerned about his performance at the ML level. While not optimal for the player's ego, it is would be understandable. If you shelve him, he could well be gone for a month or 2. Not sure you can just do it for a couple of starts. I think they should try to see if he can work it out, at least until the AS break or midway through the season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2021 17:54:25 GMT -5
Jeez workman opted out of his minor league deal. It'll be sad to see him go, must already have a better option if he is opting out. Opting out means they have 48 hours to add him. I'd be surprised if they didn't DFA Brewer to keep him given the upside.
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Post by unitspin on Jun 1, 2021 18:08:28 GMT -5
Jeez workman opted out of his minor league deal. It'll be sad to see him go, must already have a better option if he is opting out. Opting out means they have 48 hours to add him. I'd be surprised if they didn't DFA Brewer to keep him given the upside. Yeah, I'm hoping that is how it goes down but I don't want to get my hopes up.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 1, 2021 18:15:58 GMT -5
.....not saying I like Hernandez leading off, but if you do not like it please suggest another option....(Cora seems to like 2-5 as Verdugo, JD, X, Devers, so those options are off limits). It does not leave many options...... I agree with a DL/IL for E-Rod and I do not think it has to be phantom. The RS can call it “covid related” as it as a catch all that is a blank check excuse that works for EVERYTHING no questions ask! Curious as to why this is the best course of action. If he isn't hurt, i can't see any reason why the Sox would want to do this. He has 2 options if your concerned about his performance at the ML level. While not optimal for the player's ego, it is would be understandable. If you shelve him, he could well be gone for a month or 2. Not sure you can just do it for a couple of starts. I think they should try to see if he can work it out, at least until the AS break or midway through the season. For me, it comes down to performance and a better usage of the roster spot. That's why my mind went there. He's clearly ineffectual right now. Put it this way, if Richards hadn't found his soul against the Mets, would he still be getting starts right now? There were components of this board (myself included sheepishly) that were ready to drive him to Logan at a moments notice. Me personally, I've always felt Erod was overrated and underprepared. He got by on his talent, but when the going gets rough he always quit the team until Cora came along and unlocked something others couldn't previously. It could be maturity that I should factor in as well, but I've never been bullish on him, and I don't believe the Sox should continue to send him out there to huck potatoes at major league hitters.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 1, 2021 18:42:18 GMT -5
I want to point out also, not as a dig, although it may come across as one, Eddie is a #4-#5 starter who is being asked to stretch beyond that. A lot of people think of him as a 2 or 3, but I just don't see it. I know he has 5 pitches, but his arsenal is so similar to me that it appears he really only has 2, a FB and a changeup, the two he predominately features. It's hard to survive as a starter with only 2 different pitches, so kudos to him for doing so, so long. If he were to improve his slider more, and use it less sparingly it would make a world of difference for him in my opinion, or if he resurrected a passable curve ball, but there just isn't enough different between his cutter and changeup, and both get hit pretty hard the last time I checked. Add into that a loss of 4 seam velocity and the profile worsens.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 1, 2021 19:08:07 GMT -5
Curious as to why this is the best course of action. If he isn't hurt, i can't see any reason why the Sox would want to do this. He has 2 options if your concerned about his performance at the ML level. While not optimal for the player's ego, it is would be understandable. If you shelve him, he could well be gone for a month or 2. Not sure you can just do it for a couple of starts. I think they should try to see if he can work it out, at least until the AS break or midway through the season. For me, it comes down to performance and a better usage of the roster spot. That's why my mind went there. He's clearly ineffectual right now. Put it this way, if Richards hadn't found his soul against the Mets, would he still be getting starts right now? There were components of this board (myself included sheepishly) that were ready to drive him to Logan at a moments notice. Me personally, I've always felt Erod was overrated and underprepared. He got by on his talent, but when the going gets rough he always quit the team until Cora came along and unlocked something others couldn't previously. It could be maturity that I should factor in as well, but I've never been bullish on him, and I don't believe the Sox should continue to send him out there to huck potatoes at major league hitters. And you don't see a different lesson you might glean from your overeagerness to run Richards out of town that you might apply to a starter with a proven track record whose xERA/FIP/xFIP are all two runs lower than his ERA?
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Post by fanofredsox on Jun 1, 2021 19:24:11 GMT -5
Wow, lead off home run, can Richards get through 5 with less then 100 pitches & no more then 3 runs....... I guess we will see
lets go Garrett!
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 1, 2021 19:28:15 GMT -5
The way cora plays favorites and takes care of his guys. Chances are we see franchy again before Duran. So in a short period of time of not producing much he becomes one of Coras guys? Is he the one who even makes that decision?
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Post by manfred on Jun 1, 2021 19:39:24 GMT -5
Huh. This guy is kinda nasty.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 1, 2021 19:59:37 GMT -5
OK, a guy like Verdugo - he has some pop but he’s not David Ortiz. Against that shift why not bunt for a hit, especially with good speed on the bases? This team needs baserunners. That was an opportunity missed. If they’re going to give it to you, why not take it? Especially in a 1 run game and with JD coming up.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,648
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Post by cdj on Jun 1, 2021 20:12:44 GMT -5
Another defensive run saved for Marwin
It’s a good thing he’s saving runs on that end of things....
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Post by jkfer98 on Jun 1, 2021 20:13:39 GMT -5
I’m going to keep supporting Marwin on the roster if his defense stays on this level. A valuable guy to have on a contending team, even if his role is eventually diminished.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,648
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Post by cdj on Jun 1, 2021 20:15:41 GMT -5
Wow, lead off home run, can Richards get through 5 with less then 100 pitches & no more then 3 runs....... I guess we will see lets go Garrett! Last 5 starts he’s averaged over 6 innings while allowing an average of 1.83 runs per start, weird post That timespan is since the mechanical changes if anybody wants context on why I chose that as my arbitrary start point
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Post by unitspin on Jun 1, 2021 20:16:13 GMT -5
The way cora plays favorites and takes care of his guys. Chances are we see franchy again before Duran. So in a short period of time of not producing much he becomes one of Coras guys? Is he the one who even makes that decision? Guess we'll see who gets the first crack at the OF in a couple weeks if Danny boy keeps doing zero in the batters box.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2021 20:18:07 GMT -5
Curious as to why this is the best course of action. If he isn't hurt, i can't see any reason why the Sox would want to do this. He has 2 options if your concerned about his performance at the ML level. While not optimal for the player's ego, it is would be understandable. If you shelve him, he could well be gone for a month or 2. Not sure you can just do it for a couple of starts. I think they should try to see if he can work it out, at least until the AS break or midway through the season. For me, it comes down to performance and a better usage of the roster spot. That's why my mind went there. He's clearly ineffectual right now. Put it this way, if Richards hadn't found his soul against the Mets, would he still be getting starts right now? There were components of this board (myself included sheepishly) that were ready to drive him to Logan at a moments notice. Me personally, I've always felt Erod was overrated and underprepared. He got by on his talent, but when the going gets rough he always quit the team until Cora came along and unlocked something others couldn't previously. It could be maturity that I should factor in as well, but I've never been bullish on him, and I don't believe the Sox should continue to send him out there to huck potatoes at major league hitters. it is frustrating to see the lack of results. I get where you are coming from, but i see a veteran that probably needs more rope to see what is going on. And the Covid missed year may be factoring in. IMO, with a veteran guy, you have to ride it out until the team feels there is no change on the horizon, which it appears they are willing to do. Hopefully, he can find something that works.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 1, 2021 20:22:36 GMT -5
It appears the Astros have done their homework on Devers' futility vs fastballs.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 1, 2021 20:23:02 GMT -5
For me, it comes down to performance and a better usage of the roster spot. That's why my mind went there. He's clearly ineffectual right now. Put it this way, if Richards hadn't found his soul against the Mets, would he still be getting starts right now? There were components of this board (myself included sheepishly) that were ready to drive him to Logan at a moments notice. Me personally, I've always felt Erod was overrated and underprepared. He got by on his talent, but when the going gets rough he always quit the team until Cora came along and unlocked something others couldn't previously. It could be maturity that I should factor in as well, but I've never been bullish on him, and I don't believe the Sox should continue to send him out there to huck potatoes at major league hitters. And you don't see a different lesson you might glean from your overeagerness to run Richards out of town that you might apply to a starter with a proven track record whose xERA/FIP/xFIP are all two runs lower than his ERA? some of those peripherals have to based on his good start to the season. Honestly, he has really regressed from the start of the season. That is where the anxiety comes from. He has proven to be an above average ML pitcher, so we gotta hope he gets back there.
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Post by manfred on Jun 1, 2021 20:27:00 GMT -5
Holy cow. I get Richards has been productive of late, but I cannot wait for him to be in the rearview mirror. I would just as soon watch Perez.
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