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Imagining a Bogaerts Extension
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 3, 2022 19:24:15 GMT -5
I don't think Story can physically hold up for a full season at SS anymore. I'd rather have a gold glove 2nd baseman. Its better for his career, someone just needs to tell him this. Trea Turner will mention it to him after Bloom signs him in the off-season. Turner is the same age as X and pretty much identical production. Why the hell would be let X whos the face of the team and Devers buddy walk for equal production from someone whos the same age as him? Unless hes cheaper which he wont be.
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Post by benzinger on Aug 3, 2022 19:40:26 GMT -5
Trea Turner will mention it to him after Bloom signs him in the off-season. Turner is the same age as X and pretty much identical production. Why the hell would be let X whos the face of the team and Devers buddy walk for equal production from someone whos the same age as him? Unless hes cheaper which he wont be. Turner is the better player, and definitely the better defender, but the Dodgers aren’t going to let him go. He’s perfect in that lineup batting after Mookie and in front of Freeman.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 3, 2022 22:02:23 GMT -5
Nomar is the reason I started to love baseball, my favorite Red Sox of all time and it will never not make me sad how he fell off. If he had still been on the team in '04, or Grady Little doesn't Grady Little in '03, Nomar gets talked about/remembered in a dramatically different light both career wise and in Boston. Funny one of my favorite non-Red Sox ever is Troy Tulowitzki, who had a sort of similarly sudden drop off after being elite (though not peak-Nomar-level). Nomar was one of the best Red Sox bad ball hitters, every time a pitcher threw a mistake he had the best wrists. Never the same after the injury. Does anyone know why he wanted out was it just the intensity around here?
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Post by keninten on Aug 4, 2022 1:17:16 GMT -5
I don't think Story can physically hold up for a full season at SS anymore. I'd rather have a gold glove 2nd baseman. Its better for his career, someone just needs to tell him this. Trea Turner will mention it to him after Bloom signs him in the off-season. If X goes I think it will be Dansby.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 4, 2022 8:58:05 GMT -5
Trea Turner will mention it to him after Bloom signs him in the off-season. If X goes I think it will be Dansby. 100% agree.
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Post by seamus on Aug 4, 2022 10:45:02 GMT -5
Yeah, if Swanson may be gettable at 6/120, it would be hard to justify offering Bogaerts something like 6/180. If the choice comes down to Swanson at 6/130 or Bogaerts at 6/150, it'll be interesting to see how much value Boston places on Bogaerts' role as a leader in the clubhouse and franchise icon. Bogaerts has more value in Boston than anywhere else, but they'll have to quantify that in some way to make a decision.
I'm honestly okay if somebody swoops in and gives Bogaerts a king's ransom as long as the Red Sox make a good faith effort at him. Might be the best case scenario, honestly, if the Giants lose their minds and throw 200m at him so everybody can just be happy for him getting the bag without needing to worry about his decline hampering the team.
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Post by chr31ter on Aug 14, 2022 10:05:41 GMT -5
Buster Olney writes today that the Red Sox plan to speak with both Bogaerts and Devers following the season in regards to contract extensions.
Personally, I'd be little surprised if Bogaerts ends up returning.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2022 10:26:43 GMT -5
4/100 is my final offer. I don’t anticipate his defense will hold up with age and now that he isn’t hitting for power can we really afford to give him 5/6 years at 30 mill? I don’t think so
How much is a corner infielder with average power worth?
*disclaimer: I do know Xander’s defense has actually graded out decently this year, I just choose to take the much larger sample of every other season into account
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Post by manfred on Aug 14, 2022 10:40:26 GMT -5
It is fascinating to me that people have turned on X and talk about Trea Turner. Turner is barely younger than Xander, and they have the same bWAR. If you let X walk but sign Turner to, say, a $200 million contract, you’ve traded Mookie to clear salary space and let X go in order to get Story and Turner up the middle. That does not seem like a good exchange in terms of talent or Sox lore.
Why do we think paying $20+ million for Story or Turner when they are ~34 will be better than X?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 14, 2022 10:47:47 GMT -5
I think Bogaerts might get less than most expect.
If they’re going to spend big at SS, IMO it should be Correa. Best batted ball profile and youngest. Bogaerts seems to be trending the wrong way, too much of Turner’s game is predicated on speed and he’s 29, and Swanson has a much longer track record of mediocrity than he does stardom.
Said this in another thread, but I would try to offload Story’s deal, let Bogaerts walk, and sign Correa. The money savings would help improve other positions or help extend Devers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 14, 2022 10:56:48 GMT -5
It is fascinating to me that people have turned on X and talk about Trea Turner. Turner is barely younger than Xander, and they have the same bWAR. If you let X walk but sign Turner to, say, a $200 million contract, you’ve traded Mookie to clear salary space and let X go in order to get Story and Turner up the middle. That does not seem like a good exchange in terms of talent or Sox lore. Why do we think paying $20+ million for Story or Turner when they are ~34 will be better than X? I wouldn't be surprised if they lose X. I would be surprised if they replaced X with Trea Turner. If they lose X and Story can return to SS, that's what they'll likely do, with Valdez getting a long look at 2b and Arroyo getting chance as well, although with his injury history..... If they lose X and Story cannot return to SS, then I would expect a two year stop-gap type solution until Mayer is ready, which I would anticipate at some point in 2025. I don't think beyond retaining X, they're going to spend massively on another middle infielder.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 14, 2022 11:09:56 GMT -5
Lol I just wrote a couple sentences on another topic about this. Basically he has to see the market. If I’m bloom 3 years more money if I know he was hurt this year. And I know for a fact in the clubhouse he is valued. I think he is going to be disappointed. I hope he doesn’t take less somewhere else out of spite.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 14, 2022 13:28:23 GMT -5
It is fascinating to me that people have turned on X and talk about Trea Turner. Turner is barely younger than Xander, and they have the same bWAR. If you let X walk but sign Turner to, say, a $200 million contract, you’ve traded Mookie to clear salary space and let X go in order to get Story and Turner up the middle. That does not seem like a good exchange in terms of talent or Sox lore. Why do we think paying $20+ million for Story or Turner when they are ~34 will be better than X? Turner has 29.7 fWAR / 28.7 bWAR in 801 career games. Xander has 32.6 fWAR / 33.1 bWAR in 1224 career games. If you limit the sample to 2018, when Xander took his big step forward, Xander's at 20.6 fWAR / 21.6 bWAR in 601 G. Turner's at 23.0 fWAR / 21.9 bWAR in 603 G. That translates to 27.0 G/fWAR and 27.9 G/bWAR for Turner overall, and 26.2 G/fWAR and 27.5 G/bWAR from 2018 on. Bogie's at 37.5 G/fWAR and 37.0 G/bWAR overall, and 29.2 G/fWAR 27.8 G/bWAR from 2018 on. So, even since 2018 Turner's been more valuable. Turner is also 9 months younger and a better defender at SS, so he'd be a better bet to stay at SS for a larger chunk of his FA deal. Turner has 18 HR this year while Xander has just 9, and I see teams being a bit more wary of Xander given that power outage. When you put it all together, I think Turner will get a comfortably better deal than Xander. I don't think bringing Xander back on a cheaper deal than Turner gets would be bad, though - heck, the value could be better! If you had $200 million to give to one guy, though, Turner would be a better choice than Xander.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 14, 2022 13:41:13 GMT -5
Lol I just wrote a couple sentences on another topic about this. Basically he has to see the market. If I’m bloom 3 years more money if I know he was hurt this year. And I know for a fact in the clubhouse he is valued. I think he is going to be disappointed. I hope he doesn’t take less somewhere else out of spite. Even if Bogaerts didn't feel any attachment to Boston, which I doubt, why would you take more than a marginal pay cut to play elsewhere? Like, if bad offers are that insulting, why would he accept a worse final offer to spite the Sox for a bad initial offer? He clearly cares about getting paid fairly or the low initial offer wouldn't have bothered him lol As far as I'm concerned, if he takes a pay cut to leave, he did not want to stay. I also don't think there's any chance of that happening.
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Post by taiwansox on Aug 14, 2022 19:49:16 GMT -5
It’s really sad thinking about Xander leaving, but it probably comes between him and Devers and Devers is harder to replace and 5 years younger. Even if Devers has to DH, he has value. And from the intangible side, I really don’t like how Xander has handled the last few months. It’s eerily similar to Nomar in 2004 (we had a hole at SS until Xander but still managed to win in 2007 and 2013)
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 14, 2022 20:09:33 GMT -5
It’s really sad thinking about Xander leaving, but it probably comes between him and Devers and Devers is harder to replace and 5 years younger. Even if Devers has to DH, he has value. And from the intangible side, I really don’t like how Xander has handled the last few months. It’s eerily similar to Nomar in 2004 (we had a hole at SS until Xander but still managed to win in 2007 and 2013) If Devers is looking for 30-40 a year and ends up DHing he's not worth it. Hate to say it but I'm starting to think they should deal him.
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Post by taiwansox on Aug 14, 2022 20:13:18 GMT -5
It’s really sad thinking about Xander leaving, but it probably comes between him and Devers and Devers is harder to replace and 5 years younger. Even if Devers has to DH, he has value. And from the intangible side, I really don’t like how Xander has handled the last few months. It’s eerily similar to Nomar in 2004 (we had a hole at SS until Xander but still managed to win in 2007 and 2013) If Devers is looking for 30-40 a year and ends up DHing he's not worth it. Hate to say it but I'm starting to think they should deal him. That’s the bear case which is still worth 20-25M/year. There’s no way to get that offense back on the open market. Xander you could sign a Jose Iglesias type for $5M to get 1-2 WAR and spend the savings to get offense from 1B/OF or get a catcher. A stopgap could make more sense with all the up the middle players we have in the minor
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 15, 2022 8:20:34 GMT -5
I don't fall in love with players, I'm perfectly content with trading away a bird and hand for 3 in the bush. I do however believe there is some value in continuity, and a danger to not retaining any or very little homegrown talent. I think it's worth keeping Xander here long-term, even if he moves off of SS if he can still hit he's going to add tremendous value at 3B/1B/DH as he ages. I can see him tapping into his power more if he were a DH one day as well. Even if he doesn't if he's healthy he'd easily beat out the value of a 200/8 year deal.
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Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 9:32:16 GMT -5
If the Sox offered 8/200, it's possible they get the value of what they pay for, but generating surplus value seems unlikely even if you heavily weight the value of continuity & leadership. Even if you put a value of $10m/win on Bogaerts (which would probably be above market rate, but who knows how FA values are going to evolve over the decade), that means you'd need 20 WAR over his age 30-37 seasons just to break even. That might not sound like much, but that's about what he's posted since 2018. I doubt that his 30-34 is going to be as good as his 25-29, and there's the real potential that his production absolutely tanks by age 35 through atrocious defense and/or moving off of shortstop, losing a ton of positional value. It's easy to see a scenario where his contributions are negligible, or even negative, after the first 4 or 5 seasons of the deal, and he's most likely peaked. He may have 20-25 WAR left in the tank depending on whether or not his power rebounds - which would be great and put him in that "borderline Hall of Famer" conversation - but that seems like too optimistic a scenario to be the breakeven point.
If you can get him at something like 6/160, I think that's probably worthwhile when you factor in the "intangible" benefits of retaining a star and clubhouse leader. But 8/200 and you're almost certainly talking about quite a bit of effectively dead money and awkward roster construction issues over multiple seasons. You can deal with 1 or 2 bad years at the tail end of a long contract, but you can't risk half of it being a wash.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 15, 2022 9:56:20 GMT -5
I'd be really excited if he could be signed for 6/$160. But I don't think it's unreasonable to assume Bogaerts can average 2.5 WAR moving forward.
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Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 10:13:15 GMT -5
My thing is that I think the way he gets to an average of 2.5 WAR over 8 years is 4 years of 4-5 WAR and 4 years of 0-1 WAR. I think the risk that he dips below the 4-5 WAR mark in the next year or two is much greater than the chance that he both maintains his peak AND outperforms the 0-1 WAR mark at age 34+.
It's not an unreasonable assumption - he could absolutely do it and I hope he does, whether in Boston or somewhere else - but it's the breakeven point on an 8/200 deal, and only if you feel that paying an above-market premium of $10m/WAR for Bogey specifically is worthwhile. I was more saying that I think the chance of producing surplus value seems extremely remote while there's a substantial risk that you not only overpay, but the distribution of production is such that you're likely to get hamstrung by $25m AAV of basically dead money for 3 or 4 years.
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Post by agastonguay13 on Aug 15, 2022 10:33:01 GMT -5
4/100 is my final offer. I don’t anticipate his defense will hold up with age and now that he isn’t hitting for power can we really afford to give him 5/6 years at 30 mill? I don’t think so How much is a corner infielder with average power worth? *disclaimer: I do know Xander’s defense has actually graded out decently this year, I just choose to take the much larger sample of every other season into account I'd go 6 years for him. I'm willing to eat the last 2 seasons of the deal if this is the start of his decline (which I don't think is the case). My caveat is that he's got to be ok with an eventual move to LF. At his best, he didn't hit for enough power to justify playing 1st or 3rd over your prototypical guys at those spots. I also don't trust his arm at 3rd full time, and the athleticism he DOES have would be wasted at 1st. He already plays what amounts to a very shallow LF at Fenway, and has the baseball IQ and athleticism to play LF. Bonus points for his having seen the guys behind him play the wall for the entirety of his career, which I think would lend itself to an ability to more naturally pick up the intricacies of the position. My concern here is that he's (seemingly) allowed himself to fall victim to outside noise this season. He's putting out a vibe of at best distraction, and at worst indifference. The way he's answered questions about contract talks, as well as his public reaction to the Vazquez trade (he definitely said "nothing", not "something") gives me the feeling that he's only really interested in leading this team if everything gets done his way, which isn't a characteristic a great leader has. That said, I don't expect him to just roll with everything, but a great leader keeps that strife internal and doesn't let it impact his play on the field. At the end of the day, this team was firing on all cylinders before an enormous rash of injuries and/or poor performance from key players dropped them from a solid lead in the WC race to a last place club (albeit in the strongest division in the Majors). Let's not forget that even without their usual HR totals, Bogaerts and Martinez were top 5 in the league in .avg, 2B, and .slg before (seemingly) allowing themselves to fall prey to outside influence and (seemingly) started to place blame on the front office for not mortgaging the organization's future to buoy 2 guys that (again, seemingly) packed it in after more key role players and higher end depth pieces than you can count on one hand went out with medium-to-long term injuries (Whitlock, Sale, Hernandez, Story, Wacha, Eovaldi, Hill, Strahm, Arroyo, Houck, Bello, etc...). All this to say essentially that, I love Bogaerts at his best. He's shown leadership ability that's hard to find in any Major League market, let alone in Boston. He's produced in that same difficult market. And, to an extent, I even understand if he feels a certain kind of way about the organization not just giving him what he asked for. But it seems to me this opt out ( which IMO was a gesture of good faith from the organization to get him paid guaranteed money initially, as well as to ensure that he's paid his fair market value over the long term) has been corrupted (presumably by his agent) into something that has led to Bogaerts souring on the organization rather than giving him faith in them. Reports had the Red Sox initial offer as amounting to tacking on one more year to what he's under contract for after the opt out, which would guarantee him $20m per year through 2026, essentially picking up the vesting option for that season ('26) in exchange for not opting out. So, 4 years, $80m. If he's asking $30m per and willing to accept a negotiated $26m(pure speculation), over the team's 4 years offered, that'd be $120m max, willing to go as low as $104m. Generally, the longer you want the contract to be (as the player), the less you'll get per season (unless you're a 22 year old phenom). So if he wants 8 years, he's got to expect the team to say "if we're doing that, we'd live more in the $22m-ish range per season). It seems at the end of the day, there's a middle ground that Bogaerts (Boras) isn't willing to entertain just yet, nor does he have to, but the organization's similar unwillingness to come up on their numbers before Boras makes any initial movement isn't sitting well with Bogaerts, when the organization has just as much right to not negotiate against themselves as he does.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 15, 2022 10:38:56 GMT -5
Trea Turner will mention it to him after Bloom signs him in the off-season. If X goes I think it will be Dansby. Ugh - signing a SS after a career year who averages 2.0 fWAR is an outright recipe for disappointment.
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Post by Papi's Gift on Aug 15, 2022 10:43:55 GMT -5
Maybe this has been mentioned earlier, and if so my apologies, but Bogaerts may be one of those guys whose offensive skill set plays especially well at Fenway. His home/away splits over his 1201 games are quite severe:
.311/.374/.496/.869 at home .271/,336/.420/.756 away RBI = 384 vs 275
This may be partly explainable by BAbip, .357 vs .315 home/away, but this, too, is presumably affected by his ability to play nicely with the monster. I hope Boros doesn't overplay his hand here, since those numbers away from Fenway look fairly pedestrian for someone entering his 30s, especially if X has to move off SS, and rival GMs wwill surely be aware of this.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 15, 2022 11:40:21 GMT -5
The risk of paying a high AAV for a player underperforming at the end of his contract is the risk you're almost always going to have to take to sign a premium player. If not Bogaerts, then it's the same risk for Turner, Correa etc etc. I think Bogaerts has a skill set that will age better than most. I think he's a special hitter, and I think his power outage this year is more of an anomaly, I suspect he would still be a positive war player even as a DH by the time he's 35. Could I be wrong? YUP.
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