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6/15-6/16 Red Sox @ Braves Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2021 22:36:49 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2021 22:49:21 GMT -5
Arroyo's 1.03 Win Probability Added on the season now has him in the top 50 guys in MLB.
Hold it ... no ... that's 1.03 WPA just this week.
He had 0.20 before, so he's now about 32nd in MLB.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 16, 2021 22:55:59 GMT -5
Outfield defense was simply atrocious tonight, I felt bad for Richards. Glad they ended the night with a successful relay
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 16, 2021 23:02:54 GMT -5
Christian Vazquez- OUT (mud butt)
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jun 16, 2021 23:19:27 GMT -5
Baseball Gods seem to love Cora now. He's been like this Homeric figure: triumph, tragedy, and...so far so good in 2021, but what's next? I don't really know if he is a great manager. Arod said on ESPN that Cora was the best in the majors right now. All I know is he seems to get it right more often than not, while most of us scratch our heads over his lineups, who leads off, the bottom of the order, and which relievers he trusts with the game on the line. And yet, here we are 1 game out of 1st place.
That said, I think the last 2 weeks have demonstrated this team may have or may be about to peak. I think the league has figured out many of these starting pitchers' tendencies, they are missing their locations too much, and the opposing hitters are now smacking the ball all over the yard. The starters are getting hit hard, they are not having many clean innings, and are now struggling to complete 5 innings. Perhaps fatigue is beginning to settle in after a significantly shortened 2020 season. Erod especially seems winded. If you want to say Richards lacked command tonight, hitting batters, etc, because he might not have had any sticky stuff - perhaps you are right. But he has been a high-wire act all season. I just don't feel confident in the starting 5 we have going right now - that they can duplicate what they have done so far in the first 69 games. For now Cora will have to keep running them out there every 5 days, and hope the gods are still in his favor. The offense is often frustrating with all the strikeouts and unproductive outs, but as long as 2-5 (+Renfroe and +Arroyo) stay healthy we should be able to score runs.
I really hope I am wrong, and that the Sox can keep up this winning pace. It's been an extremely exciting ride so far and I hope it lasts. But it seems we've been really fortunate to win many of the games we've won these last 2 weeks considering how bad the starting pitching has been.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 16, 2021 23:56:48 GMT -5
Open apology to Christian Arroyo. I was sure he would be DFA by now.it’s starting to look like he may be the full time 2B. Good job young man. Keep up the good work.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 17, 2021 0:18:15 GMT -5
Open apology to Christian Arroyo. I was sure he would be DFA by now.it’s starting to look like he may be the full time 2B. Good job young man. Keep up the good work. There is no way Christian Arroyo gets a full time 2B job as long as Cora is manager, because Cora needs 2B to play his zzzzzs (Hernández and Gonzalez)! Arroyo would need a BA of .400 and a HR every other game for there to be enough pressure onCora to make Arroyo full time....same goes for leading off......
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Post by benzinger on Jun 17, 2021 1:13:08 GMT -5
Open apology to Christian Arroyo. I was sure he would be DFA by now.it’s starting to look like he may be the full time 2B. Good job young man. Keep up the good work. The Sox seem to have solidified several guys as everyday players at this point: Verdugo, JDM, Bogaerts, Devers, Renfroe, Vazquez, ARROYO. Marwin, Kikè, Santana, Dalbec etc...can compete for the other 2 slots, but Arroyo needs to play. He’s earned it. And hopefully Duran is up soon to be the 8th lock in that lineup. Alex needs to let go of his “buddies” and play his best hand more often.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2021 4:37:46 GMT -5
Baseball Gods seem to love Cora now. He's been like this Homeric figure: triumph, tragedy, and...so far so good in 2021, but what's next? I don't really know if he is a great manager. Arod said on ESPN that Cora was the best in the majors right now. All I know is he seems to get it right more often than not, while most of us scratch our heads over his lineups, who leads off, the bottom of the order, and which relievers he trusts with the game on the line. And yet, here we are 1 game out of 1st place. That said, I think the last 2 weeks have demonstrated this team may have or may be about to peak. I think the league has figured out many of these starting pitchers' tendencies, they are missing their locations too much, and the opposing hitters are now smacking the ball all over the yard. The starters are getting hit hard, they are not having many clean innings, and are now struggling to complete 5 innings. Perhaps fatigue is beginning to settle in after a significantly shortened 2020 season. Erod especially seems winded. If you want to say Richards lacked command tonight, hitting batters, etc, because he might not have had any sticky stuff - perhaps you are right. But he has been a high-wire act all season. I just don't feel confident in the starting 5 we have going right now - that they can duplicate what they have done so far in the first 69 games. For now Cora will have to keep running them out there every 5 days, and hope the gods are still in his favor. The offense is often frustrating with all the strikeouts and unproductive outs, but as long as 2-5 (+Renfroe and +Arroyo) stay healthy we should be able to score runs. I really hope I am wrong, and that the Sox can keep up this winning pace. It's been an extremely exciting ride so far and I hope it lasts. But it seems we've been really fortunate to win many of the games we've won these last 2 weeks considering how bad the starting pitching has been. In 2018 the Sox led MLB in FanGaph's "Clutch" hitting metric by a huge margin.
This year they are leading by a wide margin again. I really think Cora has something to do with it, even though they were 26th in 2019. That stuff is contagious, which is an even bigger factor than the tone the manager sets.
Alex Verdugo ranked 10th in MLB (coming into last night) in Win Probability Added (adjusted for leverage) -- but 3rd on the Red Sox. JDM and Raffy were 8th and 9th. I'll know later today where Arroyo now stands in WPA / PA.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 17, 2021 6:06:57 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Jun 17, 2021 6:07:45 GMT -5
Arroyo's 1.03 Win Probability Added on the season now has him in the top 50 guys in MLB. Hold it ... no ... that's 1.03 WPA just this week. He had 0.20 before, so he's now about 32nd in MLB.
But let’s start Kiké because…uh…intagibles, or something…
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 17, 2021 7:23:00 GMT -5
Richards was a mess last night. Spin rate down as everyone has said. He seems to be the type that will get tack-whacked. Worried about him going forward.
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Post by cba82 on Jun 17, 2021 7:53:40 GMT -5
“Marwin, Kikè, Santana, Dalbec etc...can compete for the other 2 slots” — Danny Santana is not the answer. The team needs that roster spot, and soon.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2021 8:05:40 GMT -5
Arroyo's 1.03 Win Probability Added on the season now has him in the top 50 guys in MLB. Hold it ... no ... that's 1.03 WPA just this week. He had 0.20 before, so he's now about 32nd in MLB.
But let’s start Kiké because…uh…intagibles, or something… Kiké Hernández has started at 2B once in the last 20 games. He's basically the center fielder at this point. Fair if you want to say Cora should be playing Arroyo at 2B more, but it's mostly been Gonzalez, not Hernandez (although Arroyo had started 8 in a row and 11 of 13 at 2B before the Braves series. Now that they're going to be back in the AL and not having to play JDM in left, Arroyo likely goes back to being your everyday 2B. It's interesting - I wonder how much they want to make sure they manage his workload. Since 2017, his single-season high in plate appearances is 248. He's already at 142.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2021 8:07:38 GMT -5
Richards was a mess last night. Spin rate down as everyone has said. He seems to be the type that will get tack-whacked. Worried about him going forward. What’s interesting is that I’m fairly certain they said his spin was up in his prior two starts. I have not double checked that but it’s weird if it’s true
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Post by patford on Jun 17, 2021 8:07:55 GMT -5
Thank god this team has a professional manager rather than the collective fan hive-mind. The constant buzz of "DFA" the bum, "Get him out of there." "Why is he doing ____in this spot" is all so out of touch with the reality that the Sox have pieces and the manager has to use what is available to him. Take just the bullpen as an example. There's hardly a guy in that pen who doesn't make me so nervous I can stand watching it. Bases on balls drive me crazy. Yet the fans complaining about the bullpen the most are the same fans who don't think Cora is going to the bullpen early enough.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 17, 2021 8:29:23 GMT -5
Richards was a mess last night. Spin rate down as everyone has said. He seems to be the type that will get tack-whacked. Worried about him going forward. Listening to him in the post-game conference and watching his body language I get the sense that Garrett Richards is resigned to being whatever he is now that he can't use the sticky stuff. He was always walking the tightrope this whole season and recently has begun to fall off the tightrope. Going forward I'm worried this guy might fall before he even gets onto the tightrope. I was hoping Richards would eventually settle into the #3 spot in the rotation (I meant as an asset). As it is Eovaldi is the only starter I have any trust in. E-Rod still has his issues, despite some decent FIP numbers. At some point pitching to an ERA of 9 for a month means something. It doesn't mean that E-Rod can't bounce back - I think he can, but it's fair to be concerned. Meanwhile, Pivetta and Perez are regresssing to the mean. The rotation has been awful and eventually it will exhaust the bullpen. Thankfully the Sox made it to the pitstop intact. Yesterday's game was a carbon copy of the previous one, another game the Sox totally blew with bad starting pitching, terrible defense, and shoddy situational hitting. Yet, somehow they managed to win 10-8, which is an amazing trademark of this team - and also tells you that's there's a reason the Braves bullpen leads everybody in losses. And after non gaining a game on Tampa for over a month, the Sox now have gained 2 games in 2 days. And the biggest reason this happened: Christian Arroyo's humungous grand slam! Wow, he launched that thing. I've gotta say - Cora has a knack of putting up the right pinch-hitter. I thought he'd go to Santana, which he was about to, but then the Braves foolishly went to Minter and I figured Kiké Hernandez against a lefty actually made sense (which I would have done), but he then went to Arroyo (who I must confess I had forgotten about) - and boom. Of course that invites the bigger question: Why the hell was Arroyo available as a PH anyways? The man SHOULD BE the REGULAR 2b, playing just about EVERY day. Why he is not I don't know. And why, if Cora refuses to lead off Verdugo, isn't Arroyo in the leadoff spot regularly? Or at least until Duran shows he can do it? I don't understand Cora's stubbornness about having to find a spot to play Marwin Gonzalez every day. And worse leading him off when Hernandez is out. Arroyo is hardly a walk machine, but the guy has displayed a strong hit tool in a yea that's a valuable commodity. Arroyo has hovered between 25 and 50 points above league average in batting average and has recently begun to have his power show. He really needs to play every day. He needs to sit Gonzalez and eventually Hernandez (relegate him to the short half of a platoon) once Duran shows he's ready. I think Cora is a great manager but he needs to do this. This is the stuff that drives me crazy about Cora, but the thing is: the guy wins because he knows how to manage his bullpen and he knows how to coax the most out of his players. He knows what buttons to push and how to motivate and get his message across. And I hate to say this, I know Dalbec has been kind of better of late but my patience with him is wearing thin. It's a big deal to come up with a runner on 3b and less than 2 outs and not get the job done. With him it's either strike out or HR (and it's a lot more K than HR). There's nothing else. No singles. No sac flys. No RBI ground out. They need to upgrade 1b this season in my opinion (wish Casas was an option, but that wouldn't be fair to rush that kid). Dalbec could heat up for a week or two and hit some bombs but he'll slump just as quickly. I don't think he's a keeper for the future at this point. He's likely trade bait. I hope I look back on this and say, "Boy was I wrong". But that's where I'm at right now.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 17, 2021 8:35:40 GMT -5
Baseball Gods seem to love Cora now. He's been like this Homeric figure: triumph, tragedy, and...so far so good in 2021, but what's next? I don't really know if he is a great manager. Arod said on ESPN that Cora was the best in the majors right now. All I know is he seems to get it right more often than not, while most of us scratch our heads over his lineups, who leads off, the bottom of the order, and which relievers he trusts with the game on the line. And yet, here we are 1 game out of 1st place. That said, I think the last 2 weeks have demonstrated this team may have or may be about to peak. I think the league has figured out many of these starting pitchers' tendencies, they are missing their locations too much, and the opposing hitters are now smacking the ball all over the yard. The starters are getting hit hard, they are not having many clean innings, and are now struggling to complete 5 innings. Perhaps fatigue is beginning to settle in after a significantly shortened 2020 season. Erod especially seems winded. If you want to say Richards lacked command tonight, hitting batters, etc, because he might not have had any sticky stuff - perhaps you are right. But he has been a high-wire act all season. I just don't feel confident in the starting 5 we have going right now - that they can duplicate what they have done so far in the first 69 games. For now Cora will have to keep running them out there every 5 days, and hope the gods are still in his favor. The offense is often frustrating with all the strikeouts and unproductive outs, but as long as 2-5 (+Renfroe and +Arroyo) stay healthy we should be able to score runs. I really hope I am wrong, and that the Sox can keep up this winning pace. It's been an extremely exciting ride so far and I hope it lasts. But it seems we've been really fortunate to win many of the games we've won these last 2 weeks considering how bad the starting pitching has been. All too true, the good and the bad. Great to see Arroyo and Renfroe filling out what SHOULD be the every day line up moving forward, hopefully they can keep it up. Two guys Bloom picked off the scrap heap so kudos to him for hitting on them. What a boon that will be if they can keep it up at 3.68 million total and a few more years of control. Maybe they have peaked maybe not but I think the current roster has and they will need some new pieces to improve, especially as you point out in the rotation. Fortunately they have some guys coming back and in AAA that could help but they are going to need more than that IMO. So far the rotation has out pitched expectations but I also feel that isn't likely to continue and at some point is going to be a problem that Sale alone will not fix. As far as they go lately don't forget they had a steady diet of the 2 best offenses in baseball so maybe the can right the ship. I do think ERod and Eovoldi can be good and maybe Pivetta but Perez and Richards scare me a lot. The question for Bloom will be is this team good enough to trade for a legit starter to make a real upgrade. How much will that cost and who will be available? That will probably be the next big discussion here, deadline moves or not, who and how much. I have heard Chavis name dropped out there as having some value, that's a start but he isn't going to bring back a starter.
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Post by costpet on Jun 17, 2021 8:42:56 GMT -5
Ever notice that every Boston fan thinks they can manage better than the current one? That's been going on since 1901.
Chris Sale is due back in about a month. That will help. In the meantime, we have a pretty good club that can compete with anyone. Meanwhile, the MFY's are 7 games out. We can put the nail in next week.
The rule book says no foreign substance allowed. That's been the rule since about 1920. So, why is everyone upset that it's being enforced? If a pitcher can't throw without it, he shouldn't be in the league. It's a form of cheating, like the spitball. Maybe that's why strikeouts are up so much. Play be the rules and shut up.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 17, 2021 8:45:42 GMT -5
Thank god this team has a professional manager rather than the collective fan hive-mind. The constant buzz of "DFA" the bum, "Get him out of there." "Why is he doing ____in this spot" is all so out of touch with the reality that the Sox have pieces and the manager has to use what is available to him. Take just the bullpen as an example. There's hardly a guy in that pen who doesn't make me so nervous I can stand watching it. Bases on balls drive me crazy. Yet the fans complaining about the bullpen the most are the same fans who don't think Cora is going to the bullpen early enough. This has always been the case, Pat. From the turn on the 20th century to now, you can always count on (mostly) East Coast fans to swing from ecstatic jubilation to the utmost pits of despair. The term fanatic - "a person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal, especially for an extreme religious or political cause" - is used for a reason! With all that said... GO SOX!
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,648
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2021 8:56:21 GMT -5
Pace of play gonna go WAY down
4 hour games again. Way to go MLB.
Also
I laughed
It was weird watching his balls cut so much last night. He’s always had big movement but he really couldn’t throw it straight for the life of him
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 17, 2021 8:57:20 GMT -5
Just out of curiosity, where do the Sox rank in BP innings/innings per game? I get the concern about exhausting the bullpen. Aren't a lot of other teams in the same situation?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jun 17, 2021 9:07:44 GMT -5
Ever notice that every Boston fan thinks they can manage better than the current one? That's been going on since 1901. Chris Sale is due back in about a month. That will help. In the meantime, we have a pretty good club that can compete with anyone. Meanwhile, the MFY's are 7 games out. We can put the nail in next week. The rule book says no foreign substance allowed. That's been the rule since about 1920. So, why is everyone upset that it's being enforced? If a pitcher can't throw without it, he shouldn't be in the league. It's a form of cheating, like the spitball. Maybe that's why strikeouts are up so much. Play be the rules and shut up. If you come to an informal and opinion site about the Red Sox, then do not be surprised when you read opinions and information about the Red Sox! If you do not like it then do not come to the site......
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Post by benzinger on Jun 17, 2021 9:28:07 GMT -5
“Marwin, Kikè, Santana, Dalbec etc...can compete for the other 2 slots” — Danny Santana is not the answer. The team needs that roster spot, and soon. Oh, for sure. I would think his spot goes to Duran(but maybe Franchy before that??).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2021 9:29:54 GMT -5
Chris Sale is due back in about a month. Has that been said anywhere? That feels optimistic given that he'd need a rehab assignment and doesn't seem like he's necessarily close to one. I think mid-August feels more realistic. The rule book says no foreign substance allowed. That's been the rule since about 1920. So, why is everyone upset that it's being enforced? If a pitcher can't throw without it, he shouldn't be in the league. It's a form of cheating, like the spitball. Maybe that's why strikeouts are up so much. Play be the rules and shut up. Because MLB has literally always been fine with it. If the posted speed limit is 25 on a street you drive down all the time doing 30 safely while waving to the police officer sitting there with the radar gun and he waves back at you and smiles, and then one day you suddenly get pulled over and he's like "yeah you were speeding," you'd be pretty pissed too. The problem isn't that MLB is pulling over the people doing 40 in the 25, they're threatening to pull people over doing 26 in the 25. The rulebook also sets a strike zone that's not really the one that gets called, sets dimensions for the field that are ignored when new parks are built, says players are not to mingle or speak with fans, says there should be no equipment from the batting team in the field (including all the stuff that's in the on-deck circle), base coaches need to stay in the coach's box at all times, the pitcher is supposed to deliver the next pitch within 12 seconds... you get the point. Just out of curiosity, where do the Sox rank in BP innings/innings per game? I get the concern about exhausting the bullpen. Aren't a lot of other teams in the same situation? Not innings per game, but they're in the middle of the pack in reliever innings: Link
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