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7/19-7/21 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Thread
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2021 0:15:18 GMT -5
7/19 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 7-4, 4.30, 96.1 IP, 113K:44BB) @ Blue Jays (RHP Ross Stripling, 3-5, 4.34, 74.2 IP, 78K:23BB) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 7/20 Red Sox (RHP Garrett Richards, 5-5, 4.91, 91.2 IP, 73K:43BB) @ Blue Jays (RHP Alex Manoah, 2-1, 2.90, 40.1 IP, 52K:15BB) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 7/21 Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck, 0-2, 3.38, 13.1 IP, 15K:2BB) @ Blue Jays (TBD) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2021: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by Guidas on Jul 19, 2021 11:15:45 GMT -5
Lose three series in a row, two to teams that were at or below .500 and another to a team just hovering above .500 is (or should be) unacceptable for a team that aspires to be in the playoffs, never mind remain in first place. They actually had a chance to nearly bury Tampa in the last 10 games. Instead they've given up a five game lead. Verdugo is hurt and some players are falling back towards their mean. A trade for some offensive power would be welcome sooner rather than later.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 19, 2021 11:21:28 GMT -5
They should have a 1B in place for this two week stretch or they’re going to be giving some games away with Bobby taking important at bats vs RHPs. Its very obviously a need and waiting doesn’t make sense, especially with Arroyo hurt.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 19, 2021 11:37:42 GMT -5
It’s ok Santana is back we will start winning again
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 11:45:24 GMT -5
They should have a 1B in place for this two week stretch or they’re going to be giving some games away with Bobby taking important at bats vs RHPs. Its very obviously a need and waiting doesn’t make sense, especially with Arroyo hurt. Agreed. Having a guy with a 77 wRC+ against righties and only 54 in July playing every day is not something this offense can afford.
So who do we get to platoon with Renfroe?
ADD: wRC+'s in July:
Renfroe 54 Verdugo 68 Vazquez 59 Dalbec 13
They're back to their April ways... a line-up half-full of Marwins and Franchys.
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Post by manfred on Jul 19, 2021 11:48:48 GMT -5
A lot of the discussion has been about Dalbec’s general future — will he be a bust or not. But I wonder how many guys have gotten so much leash? Pedey had a rough start… but that was 89 ABs. JBJ struggled, but at least he was elite defensively.
I guess, even if you are optimistic, it seems fair to wonder who benefits from running Dalbec out over and over at the big league level.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 13:05:24 GMT -5
A lot of the discussion has been about Dalbec’s general future — will he be a bust or not. But I wonder how many guys have gotten so much leash? Pedey had a rough start… but that was 89 ABs. JBJ struggled, but at least he was elite defensively. I guess, even if you are optimistic, it seems fair to wonder who benefits from running Dalbec out over and over at the big league level. Well, we're 358 PAs into his career and he's at a 94 wRC+. At a comparable stage Pedroia was at 103. JBJ was at 50 through his first two seasons (530 PAs).
Of course it's the trendline with Dalbec that's less promising. But even there he has a respectable precedent:
Devers' first partial season, 2017: 240 PAs, 110 wRC+ Devers' first full season, 2018: 490 PAs, 90 wRC+
Dalbec's first partial season, 2020: 92 PAs, 152 rRC+ Dalbec's first full season, ongoing: 266 PAs, 74 wRC+
Devers actually had a worse xwOBA in 2018 than Dalbec does this year.
Dalbec has much worse K and BB rates though. That's the most concerning thing, I think.
ADD: Bogaerts through 2014: 644 PAs, 82 wRC+.
Really Dalbec's struggles aren't unusual and I think it's much too soon to give up on him. Whether you try to be patient through a playoff run, though, is another question. Even if they trade for a rental, though, in general I think I'm content to keep trying with Dalbec basically until Casas (or sure-to-be meteoric riser Niko Kavadas!) is knocking down the door.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2021 13:15:46 GMT -5
A lot of the discussion has been about Dalbec’s general future — will he be a bust or not. But I wonder how many guys have gotten so much leash? Pedey had a rough start… but that was 89 ABs. JBJ struggled, but at least he was elite defensively. I guess, even if you are optimistic, it seems fair to wonder who benefits from running Dalbec out over and over at the big league level. Well, we're 358 PAs into his career and he's at a 94 wRC+. At a comparable stage Pedroia was at 103. JBJ was at 50 through his first two seasons (530 PAs).
Of course it's the trendline with Dalbec that's less promising. But even there he has a respectable precedent: Devers' first partial season, 2017: 240 PAs, 110 wRC+ Devers' first full season, 2018: 490 PAs, 90 wRC+ Dalbec's first partial season, 2020: 92 PAs, 152 rRC+ Dalbec's first full season, ongoing: 266 PAs, 74 wRC+ Devers actually had a worse xwOBA in 2018 than Dalbec does this year. Dalbec has much worse K and BB rates though. That's the most concerning thing, I think. ADD: Bogaerts through 2014: 644 PAs, 82 wRC+.
Really Dalbec's struggles aren't unusual and I think it's much too soon to give up on him. Whether you try to be patient through a playoff run, though, is another question. Even if they trade for a rental, though, in general I think I'm content to keep trying with Dalbec basically until Casas (or sure-to-be meteoric riser Niko Kavadas!) is knocking down the door.
Wouldn't age matter in the comparison? Devers was so young with a much higher ceiling. Dalbec is closer to being he is what he is. I don't see the learning curve being bigger for somebody Dalbec's age versus Devers' age.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 19, 2021 13:19:34 GMT -5
This team is quickly sinking. They might have already won enough to not matter too much, but they need a starter to replace Richards (which should be better than Perez and maybe Pivetta) and a 1B like Rizzo. A 1.0 WAR player is effectively a 2 with how bad Dalbec has been.
A reliever like Kimbrel is down the list of needs and unless the price is right not really worth it.
Dalbec/Chavis for Anthony Rizzo. Throw in Franchy if need be. Maybe Dalbec/Chavis+Franchy+lottery ticket for Rizzo+Kimbrel.
Connor Seabold for Charlie Morton. Unless there's a better option that could possibly be had for Jeter Downs+
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 13:34:21 GMT -5
This team is quickly sinking. They're 12-7 in their last 19 games. Or are you really that concerned about an 8-game stretch?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 19, 2021 13:39:12 GMT -5
This team is quickly sinking. They're 12-7 in their last 19 games. Or are you really that concerned about an 8-game stretch? I am because it always felt like the starters are, or were, pitching above their heads and that the offense is entirely reliant on 3 guys. The bullpen feels like a real strength of this team. Also, the biggest issue being 1B feels like it's very easy to fix. Dalbec and company have been so bad that an above average replacement will feel like a major shift.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 13:39:58 GMT -5
Well, we're 358 PAs into his career and he's at a 94 wRC+. At a comparable stage Pedroia was at 103. JBJ was at 50 through his first two seasons (530 PAs).
Of course it's the trendline with Dalbec that's less promising. But even there he has a respectable precedent: Devers' first partial season, 2017: 240 PAs, 110 wRC+ Devers' first full season, 2018: 490 PAs, 90 wRC+ Dalbec's first partial season, 2020: 92 PAs, 152 rRC+ Dalbec's first full season, ongoing: 266 PAs, 74 wRC+ Devers actually had a worse xwOBA in 2018 than Dalbec does this year. Dalbec has much worse K and BB rates though. That's the most concerning thing, I think. ADD: Bogaerts through 2014: 644 PAs, 82 wRC+.
Really Dalbec's struggles aren't unusual and I think it's much too soon to give up on him. Whether you try to be patient through a playoff run, though, is another question. Even if they trade for a rental, though, in general I think I'm content to keep trying with Dalbec basically until Casas (or sure-to-be meteoric riser Niko Kavadas!) is knocking down the door.
Wouldn't age matter in the comparison? Devers was so young with a much higher ceiling. Dalbec is closer to being he is what he is. I don't see the learning curve being bigger for somebody Dalbec's age versus Devers' age. I wondered this myself, but I honestly don't know! Maybe you just need a certain number of PAs against major league pitchers to establish your ability against them, regardless of age. But it's begging the question to say "Dalbec is closer to being what he is." We don't know that yet!
The thing that worries me more, actually, is the K and BB rates. He has those hot streaks where it feels like we are getting a glimpse of what he could be, but even then he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. With BBs he could at least be a Gallo type, but as it is... And but having said that, who's to say he can't improve those numbers?
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Post by marrcus on Jul 19, 2021 13:44:07 GMT -5
Is Marwin available tonight?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 19, 2021 13:46:24 GMT -5
May be time for a new lineup
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 13:59:01 GMT -5
A lot of the discussion has been about Dalbec’s general future — will he be a bust or not. But I wonder how many guys have gotten so much leash? Pedey had a rough start… but that was 89 ABs. JBJ struggled, but at least he was elite defensively. I guess, even if you are optimistic, it seems fair to wonder who benefits from running Dalbec out over and over at the big league level. Well, we're 358 PAs into his career and he's at a 94 wRC+. At a comparable stage Pedroia was at 103. JBJ was at 50 through his first two seasons (530 PAs).
Of course it's the trendline with Dalbec that's less promising. But even there he has a respectable precedent: Devers' first partial season, 2017: 240 PAs, 110 wRC+ Devers' first full season, 2018: 490 PAs, 90 wRC+ Dalbec's first partial season, 2020: 92 PAs, 152 rRC+ Dalbec's first full season, ongoing: 266 PAs, 74 wRC+ Devers actually had a worse xwOBA in 2018 than Dalbec does this year. Dalbec has much worse K and BB rates though. That's the most concerning thing, I think. ADD: Bogaerts through 2014: 644 PAs, 82 wRC+.
Really Dalbec's struggles aren't unusual and I think it's much too soon to give up on him. Whether you try to be patient through a playoff run, though, is another question. Even if they trade for a rental, though, in general I think I'm content to keep trying with Dalbec basically until Casas (or sure-to-be meteoric riser Niko Kavadas!) is knocking down the door.
Devers was 21 when he had the rough 2018. Dalbec is 26. And, like you said, the K rates aren't in the same stratosphere. The problem isn't that Dalbec has been bad, it's that he's bad in exactly the way people who were worried about him worried he'd be bad. The fear was that as MLB-quality pitchers made an adjustment they'd be able to neutralize enough of his power, which would mean that pitchers could be a little bit more fearless pounding the strike zone on him, meaning he wouldn't be able to put up an OBP close enough to .300 to stick in the lineup. So other players have struggled like Dalbec, but almost all of them offered either upside or defense that made keeping them in the lineup more sensible. This is playing out more like Middlebrooks and Chavis, where a player steps in and pops a bunch of homers, pitchers make an adjustment, put the power in check, and the player doesn't do enough other things well to make up for it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2021 14:10:14 GMT -5
Is Marwin available tonight? Can't tell if this is a real question or not but he's on the IL and can't come off until Thursday (assuming they can backdate it to his last game on the 11th even though he didn't go on until after the break). If you're referring to the MassLive blurb they appear to be referring to him factoring in in the "foreseeable future."
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 19, 2021 14:11:29 GMT -5
They should have a 1B in place for this two week stretch or they’re going to be giving some games away with Bobby taking important at bats vs RHPs. Its very obviously a need and waiting doesn’t make sense, especially with Arroyo hurt. Agreed. Having a guy with a 77 wRC+ against righties and only 54 in July playing every day is not something this offense can afford.
So who do we get to platoon with Renfroe?
ADD: wRC+'s in July:
Renfroe 54 Verdugo 68 Vazquez 59 Dalbec 13
They're back to their April ways... a line-up half-full of Marwins and Franchys.
If you play Duran 5-6 days a week you can sit or rest Renfroe, Verdugo, and Dalbec, but that plan is hurt by Arroyo going down. I would bring up Franchy for Santana (after first verifying that Franchy know show to stretch for a ball without hurting himself). Reacting to Renfroe's great streak of hitting by having him play 7 days a week, week after week, was a mistake. Verdugo looks like he has no life in the legs.
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Post by manfred on Jul 19, 2021 14:15:40 GMT -5
Agreed. Having a guy with a 77 wRC+ against righties and only 54 in July playing every day is not something this offense can afford.
So who do we get to platoon with Renfroe?
ADD: wRC+'s in July:
Renfroe 54 Verdugo 68 Vazquez 59 Dalbec 13
They're back to their April ways... a line-up half-full of Marwins and Franchys.
If you play Duran 5-6 days a week you can sit or rest Renfroe, Verdugo, and Dalbec, but that plan is hurt by Arroyo going down. I would bring up Franchy for Santana (after first verifying that Franchy know show to stretch for a ball without hurting himself). Reacting to Renfroe's great streak of hitting by having him play 7 days a week, week after week, was a mistake. Verdugo looks like he has no life in the legs. Verdugo played 106 games in 2019 and then went out with back problems. He’s played 86 this year and is clearly not right in some way. I wonder if this is just what you get? Some guys play hard and can’t avoid these sorts of injuries.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 14:15:41 GMT -5
Well, we're 358 PAs into his career and he's at a 94 wRC+. At a comparable stage Pedroia was at 103. JBJ was at 50 through his first two seasons (530 PAs).
Of course it's the trendline with Dalbec that's less promising. But even there he has a respectable precedent: Devers' first partial season, 2017: 240 PAs, 110 wRC+ Devers' first full season, 2018: 490 PAs, 90 wRC+ Dalbec's first partial season, 2020: 92 PAs, 152 rRC+ Dalbec's first full season, ongoing: 266 PAs, 74 wRC+ Devers actually had a worse xwOBA in 2018 than Dalbec does this year. Dalbec has much worse K and BB rates though. That's the most concerning thing, I think. ADD: Bogaerts through 2014: 644 PAs, 82 wRC+.
Really Dalbec's struggles aren't unusual and I think it's much too soon to give up on him. Whether you try to be patient through a playoff run, though, is another question. Even if they trade for a rental, though, in general I think I'm content to keep trying with Dalbec basically until Casas (or sure-to-be meteoric riser Niko Kavadas!) is knocking down the door.
Devers was 21 when he had the rough 2018. Dalbec is 26. And, like you said, the K rates aren't in the same stratosphere. The problem isn't that Dalbec has been bad, it's that he's bad in exactly the way people who were worried about him worried he'd be bad. The fear was that as MLB-quality pitchers made an adjustment they'd be able to neutralize enough of his power, which would mean that pitchers could be a little bit more fearless pounding the strike zone on him, meaning he wouldn't be able to put up an OBP close enough to .300 to stick in the lineup. So other players have struggled like Dalbec, but almost all of them offered either upside or defense that made keeping them in the lineup more sensible. This is playing out more like Middlebrooks and Chavis, where a player steps in and pops a bunch of homers, pitchers make an adjustment, put the power in check, and the player doesn't do enough other things well to make up for it. Yes, makes sense, and you're reminding me that this is kind of what I semi-expected this past offseason, when I was more bearish on Dalbec than most... But what's your read on the fact that he's still able to put together those uber-hot stretches? He's done so as recently as June (.382/.432/.794 from 6/10 to 6/20), and he had a general improving trend this season until the last few weeks. I don't think Middlebrooks or Chavis ever really did that after the league made adjustments to them. Is it reason to still see potential in Dalbec, or is it just a siren song?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 19, 2021 15:19:53 GMT -5
Yes, makes sense, and you're reminding me that this is kind of what I semi-expected this past offseason, when I was more bearish on Dalbec than most... But what's your read on the fact that he's still able to put together those uber-hot stretches? He's done so as recently as June (.382/.432/.794 from 6/10 to 6/20), and he had a general improving trend this season until the last few weeks. I don't think Middlebrooks or Chavis ever really did that after the league made adjustments to them. Is it reason to still see potential in Dalbec, or is it just a siren song? Middlebrooks Aug 10-21, 2013 .441 .535 .706 1.241. Brought him up to .228 .279 .435 .714 Sept 2-8, 2013: .464 .500 .929 1.429. Brought his average up to .245. Then he hit .138 .153 .259 .411 the rest of the year. Luckily we had this 20-year-old kid to play 3b in the post-season.
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Post by Canseco on Jul 19, 2021 15:28:19 GMT -5
May be time for a new lineup Yep. I would like to see something like: Bogaerts SS Verdugo LF Martinez DH Devers 3B Renfroe RF Hernandez 2B Duran CF Arroyo/Dalbec/Chavis 1B Vazquez C Priority number one is to maximize Xander's ABs. Additionally, trying to go through this lineup shows how thin we are at first base and overall outfield depth. A healthy Arroyo makes things easier, as Hernandez can then move around the diamond as matchups permit. The lack of a proper platoon for Renfroe makes me wonder if Franchy should get another long look with the big club.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 19, 2021 15:37:45 GMT -5
Bloom and Cora obviously reading our threads. Only part they've missed is to DFA/waive Santana and go get a significant bat(s) that can play 1st and corner OF:
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Post by patford on Jul 19, 2021 15:44:17 GMT -5
The Sox record is above expectations but the reality hardly any player is having an above average year and many are arguably below what could be reasonably expected.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2021 15:47:18 GMT -5
Bloom and Cora obviously reading our threads. Only part they've missed is to DFA/waive Santana and go get a significant bat(s) that can play 1st and corner OF: I like that order a little bit better. I think Bloom will come up with a 1b solution by the deadline. Eventually: Duran Bogaerts Devers Martinez Verdugo Rizzo/Carlos Santana/Aguilar/Cooper/Miller - a legit 1b Renfroe Vazquez Arroyo And Kiké Hernandez somewhere in the order in place of whoever gets the day off (not the same spot in the order necessarily but am cool with him leading off against lefties).
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2021 16:01:13 GMT -5
Yes, makes sense, and you're reminding me that this is kind of what I semi-expected this past offseason, when I was more bearish on Dalbec than most... But what's your read on the fact that he's still able to put together those uber-hot stretches? He's done so as recently as June (.382/.432/.794 from 6/10 to 6/20), and he had a general improving trend this season until the last few weeks. I don't think Middlebrooks or Chavis ever really did that after the league made adjustments to them. Is it reason to still see potential in Dalbec, or is it just a siren song? So over those nine games: 37 PA, he had 11 strikeouts, 1 walks, went 10 for 20 on balls in play, and popped three homers. So basically he had the one week all season where his homers made up for everything else (which is fine, that was always his path to being good and I suppose still is), and paired that with getting lucky to make his line look particularly inflated. And if we're going to keep talking about his mini-hot streaks we need to appreciate how rough he's been the rest of the time to put up that overall line. Immediately following that nine-game surge, he went 0 for 5 with four strikeouts, starting a 17=game stretch in which he's hit .204/.214/.278 with 23 K's and 1 BB. And it's not like he's getting rotten BABIP luck, it's .323 in that run. And on top of that, he's been pretty protected during that stretch--most of his starts now are coming against lefties and he's still not hitting. His previously incredible splits have really evened out, but in the worst way possible - instead of being useless against righties while mashing lefties, he's stopped hitting lefties as well. I... I really can't find any positive here. `That's like Jeff Mathis stuff, and he's doing it as a first baseman.
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