Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2021 11:35:16 GMT -5
As good a place as any for this breakdown of the 2-10 nosedive. All I did was take the season WPA before the painfulness and pro-rate it to 12 games, as an expected figure, and then calculate how much better or worse their actual WPA was. No adjustments for PT or leverage.
Name wDiff
Matt Barnes -1.40
Nathan Eovaldi -1.14
Martin Perez -0.56
Rafael Devers -0.56
J.D. Martinez -0.48
Franchy Cordero -0.29
Christ. Vazquez -0.24
Alex Verdugo -0.21
Christi. Arroyo -0.18 by absence
Xander Bogaerts -0.15
Marwin Gonzalez -0.14
Garre. Richards -0.12
Garre. Whitlock -0.12
Yacksel Rios -0.11
Jonathan Arauz -0.08
Brandon Workman -0.07
Josh Taylor -0.06
Jarren Duran -0.06
Hansel Robles -0.05
Austin Davis -0.04
Hunter Renfroe -0.03
Martin Perez -0.02
Phillips Valdez -0.01
Michael Chavis 0.01
Darw. Hernandez 0.01
Bobby Dalbec 0.03
Kevin Plawecki 0.04
Danny Santana 0.06 by not playing
Connor Wong 0.07
Edua. Rodriguez 0.11
Enri. Hernandez 0.11
Tanner Houck 0.18
Hirok. Sawamura 0.22
Matt Andriese 0.23 by not pitching
Nick Pivetta 0.28
Adam Ottavino 0.42
Thanks Eric. So I assume it's essentially comparing a 7-5 normal stretch to a 2-10 actual stretch, which should mean that the math rolls up to a -5.
Which I'd chalk up to:
- Barnes -1.4
- Eovaldi/Perez -1.7
- Big 4 (XB, RD, JDM, AV) -1.4
- Other batters -0.5ish
- All other should sum to 0
So essentially all aspects of the team's leadership sucked at the exact same time, and they were all equal contributors.
In hindsight I'm not surprised to see Eovaldi up at the top, as I mentioned in another thread how much his two starts hurt us by not killing the losing stretch, but that was more an emotional reaction so it's interesting WPA also saw that. I wouldn't have picked him #2 unprompted.
It actually adds up to -4.3 wins because I didn't bother adjusting for PT. Guys who hadn't played much (Duran, Robles) who were bad have their impact understated.
The offense was -2.1, starting pitching -1.2, and the bullpen -1.0. Which is indeed almost stupidly symmetrical.
I may or may not break down the hitters (wOBA and xwOBA) by bases empty versus men on (or RISP versus otherwise, whichever was bigger). I think it was largely clutch offense that suffered.
Heck, let's get the team figures right now. xwOBA then wOBA.
.308 / .311 (248 PA) bases empty
.329 / .341 (98 PA) runner on 1B only
.296 / .215 (99 PA) RISP
There really wasn't a significant difference in xwOBA by situation. The killer was bad karma with RISP, which I definitely noticed at the time.
Devers:
.370 / .443 (20) bases empty
.337 / .351 (12) on 1B only
.269 / .126 (11) RISP
JDM:
.502 / .359 (14) bases empty
.280 / .217 (13) on 1B only
.318 / .155 (17) RISP
.280 / .217 (13) on 1B only
.318 / .155 (17) RISP
Combined:
.424 / .408 (34) empty
.307 / .281 (24) 1B only
.299 / .144 (28) RISP
So, they were as great as always with the bases empty but ordinary with runners on base, and incredibly unluckier, or easier to defend, or hitting everything to the big part of the park, with RISP.
Breaking down the 28 PA with RISP:
They had 13 expected weak outs (9 JDM), with a total 1.9 expected hits and 2.3 total bases. But they were all outs.
JDM had 2 expected weak / cheap hits (1.9 expected hits and 2.0 TB), and got them both.
Devers had a 102.6 mph fly ball with a 49 LA, an almost sure out that was. JDM had a 102.9 LD, an almost sure hit (.84) that was.
They each smoked a hard (~104.5) grounder, total xH .68, and that got turned into 3 outs. You might recall Raffy ending the 1st inning against Casey Mize with a smoked GDP with runners on the corners .. but at least they won that game.
On August 10th vs. Tampa they each had long FB ... JDM had one that's a homer 60% of the time and Raffy 30% of the time, and both were outs.
So how did the unlucky 3 missing singles and 1 missing homer change the games?
July 31st vs. Tampa, JDM's game ending groundout off of Chris Mazza is an RBI single making it 9-6. Still gonna to lose.
The next day was a karma loss. In the 5th, JDM had a 2-out nobody on barrel, 406', a homer 70% of the time, that was an out (which I just stumbled on looking at the Statcast game data). He ended the 7th with a 104.2 mph groundout with runners on the corners that was the likeliest well-placed GB hit of all the ones they never had. And he ended the game with runners on the corners with the bloop out that was the likeliest of the ones they never got.
And course there was the series opener against Tampa on the 10th, when he missed hitting a 2-out slam off of Patino in the 5th by a couple of feet horizontally. Two innings later Devers ended the inning with runners on the corners with the other long out, where the combined expected HR between them is almost 1. That was the game that Barnes melted down with the score tied 4-4 in the ninth.
No good team goes 2-8 without some crap luck. Those two games are the entire difference in the pennant race. Losing one or the other, not so unusual, but losing them both was not ordinary.
Matt Andriese being one of their more positive players in a 2-10 stretch by not playing is hysterical