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8/13-8/15 Red Sox vs. Orioles Thread
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 14, 2021 22:49:41 GMT -5
That would be the Albert Belle affect. He spent big on him and he was a psycho, sucked and got hurt so they wasted a ton of money and he hasn't spent any money since. Unless you want to include Chris Davis which once again was a big mistake. But that doesn't explain a farm system that should have been loaded. Belle was good in his first year with the Orioles, worth more than what they paid him though his defense had continued to deteriorate. He's very intelligent but he was very volatile, too hard on himself and angry in general. Not that he didn't have reasons to be, but his reactions were often over the top. So the anger management thing was a real problem. That said, he induced real fear in pitchers, not unlike Dick Allen. Baltimore's problems go well beyond Belle. Chris Davis' contract resulted in 12 bWAR at a cost of $143M. That does not pan out. Belle is barely a blip on that radar. Can go further than that Norm. let's not forget that for years the O's virtually ignored the INT market for any kind of mid-top end talent. Remember when slotting started and it was the O's until cpl years back trading away all their slots? Can tell everyone 1st hand the FCL team a few years had nothing but BIG latin guys for the most part when we would see them. Guessing they would bottom feed talent looking for guys who could crush the ball, but how much talent have they graduated? Maybe why Angelos Sr is not running the club, along with his age.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 14, 2021 23:00:31 GMT -5
Bobby is hitting well against a team with AAAA pitchers. Let's pump the breaks here. There's a reason the Red Sox have scored 14 runs today and 8 yesterday. He's still a pretty useless player with no real upside. The Orioles would kill for some AAAA pitchers.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 14, 2021 23:03:24 GMT -5
That had me wondering how much international scouting they actually did. They did sign Schoop, but no one the caliber of a Devers or a Bogaerts. It's a long road back for them.
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2021 23:23:31 GMT -5
As good a place as any for this breakdown of the 2-10 nosedive. All I did was take the season WPA before the painfulness and pro-rate it to 12 games, as an expected figure, and then calculate how much better or worse their actual WPA was. No adjustments for PT or leverage. Name wDiff Matt Barnes -1.40 Nathan Eovaldi -1.14 Martin Perez -0.56 Rafael Devers -0.56 J.D. Martinez -0.48 Franchy Cordero -0.29 Christ. Vazquez -0.24 Alex Verdugo -0.21 Christi. Arroyo -0.18 by absence Xander Bogaerts -0.15 Marwin Gonzalez -0.14 Garre. Richards -0.12 Garre. Whitlock -0.12 Yacksel Rios -0.11 Jonathan Arauz -0.08 Brandon Workman -0.07 Josh Taylor -0.06 Jarren Duran -0.06 Hansel Robles -0.05 Austin Davis -0.04 Hunter Renfroe -0.03 Martin Perez -0.02 Phillips Valdez -0.01 Michael Chavis 0.01 Darw. Hernandez 0.01 Bobby Dalbec 0.03 Kevin Plawecki 0.04 Danny Santana 0.06 by not playing Connor Wong 0.07 Edua. Rodriguez 0.11 Enri. Hernandez 0.11 Tanner Houck 0.18 Hirok. Sawamura 0.22 Matt Andriese 0.23 by not pitching Nick Pivetta 0.28 Adam Ottavino 0.42
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 14, 2021 23:30:14 GMT -5
Do the Orioles want to win? They've been an eye sore for 3 years in a row. Eventually someone in Manfreds office has to do something...right? This is embarrassing. Sox played great today during the home run derby but im sorry that the fans left in Baltimore have to watch such a sorry product.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 14, 2021 23:33:35 GMT -5
Do the Orioles want to win? They've been an eye sore for 3 years in a row. Eventually someone in Manfreds office has to do something...right? This is embarrassing. Sox played great today during the home run derby but im sorry that the fans left in Baltimore have to watch such a sorry product. As hard as it is to believe the Sox actually had a poorer record than Baltimore last year.
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Post by benzinger on Aug 15, 2021 1:00:38 GMT -5
That had me wondering how much international scouting they actually did. They did sign Schoop, but no one the caliber of a Devers or a Bogaerts. It's a long road back for them. The Orioles think International prospects are just a “fad” in MLB. They should fire every single guy in their baseball operations department immediately. Then they should fire all their scouts. Other than drafting Machado, what else have they gotten right over the last 15 years? Just an unacceptable display from that organization.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 15, 2021 1:00:59 GMT -5
As good a place as any for this breakdown of the 2-10 nosedive. All I did was take the season WPA before the painfulness and pro-rate it to 12 games, as an expected figure, and then calculate how much better or worse their actual WPA was. No adjustments for PT or leverage. Name wDiff Matt Barnes -1.40 Nathan Eovaldi -1.14 Martin Perez -0.56 Rafael Devers -0.56 J.D. Martinez -0.48 Franchy Cordero -0.29 Christ. Vazquez -0.24 Alex Verdugo -0.21 Christi. Arroyo -0.18 by absence Xander Bogaerts -0.15 Marwin Gonzalez -0.14 Garre. Richards -0.12 Garre. Whitlock -0.12 Yacksel Rios -0.11 Jonathan Arauz -0.08 Brandon Workman -0.07 Josh Taylor -0.06 Jarren Duran -0.06 Hansel Robles -0.05 Austin Davis -0.04 Hunter Renfroe -0.03 Martin Perez -0.02 Phillips Valdez -0.01 Michael Chavis 0.01 Darw. Hernandez 0.01 Bobby Dalbec 0.03 Kevin Plawecki 0.04 Danny Santana 0.06 by not playing Connor Wong 0.07 Edua. Rodriguez 0.11 Enri. Hernandez 0.11 Tanner Houck 0.18 Hirok. Sawamura 0.22 Matt Andriese 0.23 by not pitching Nick Pivetta 0.28 Adam Ottavino 0.42
Thanks Eric. So I assume it's essentially comparing a 7-5 normal stretch to a 2-10 actual stretch, which should mean that the math rolls up to a -5. Which I'd chalk up to: - Barnes -1.4 - Eovaldi/Perez -1.7 - Big 4 (XB, RD, JDM, AV) -1.4 - Other batters -0.5ish - All other should sum to 0 So essentially all aspects of the team's leadership sucked at the exact same time, and they were all equal contributors. In hindsight I'm not surprised to see Eovaldi up at the top, as I mentioned in another thread how much his two starts hurt us by not killing the losing stretch, but that was more an emotional reaction so it's interesting WPA also saw that. I wouldn't have picked him #2 unprompted.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 15, 2021 1:49:48 GMT -5
That had me wondering how much international scouting they actually did. They did sign Schoop, but no one the caliber of a Devers or a Bogaerts. It's a long road back for them. The Orioles think International prospects are just a “fad” in MLB. They should fire every single guy in their baseball operations department immediately. Then they should fire all their scouts. Other than drafting Machado, what else have they gotten right over the last 15 years? Just an unacceptable display from that organization. Angelos and son. maybe too early to judge the kid, but we'll see, definately not the Hoffberger's, which owned them from their beginning to like early 80's if remember correct. They were known to hire good baseball people to scour the country for talent, even tho the team didn't pay MLB talent they had much.. jim palmer was vocal at times about this until getting a contract close to value..once again if memory serves..
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 15, 2021 8:46:27 GMT -5
Bobby is hitting well against a team with AAAA pitchers. Let's pump the breaks here. There's a reason the Red Sox have scored 14 runs today and 8 yesterday. He's still a pretty useless player with no real upside. Are we Red Sox fans? I mean that is your avatar right, redsoxfan2. OK we shouldn't show any enthusiasm for a player who has struggled and has played a lot better lately. I guess I will go with your take that he is useless and can't help them win this year. Yes, but it's just a realistic outlook. Bobby is hot right now. He has been aided by a lot of luck before feasting on some of the worst pitching in MLB. He's also 26 and the Red Sox just shipped out 25 year old Michael Chavis after giving up on him. People are acting like he's turned a corner. I'm still highly skeptical. He can hit lefties decently and isn't a great defensive 1B. His OPS by month: April .619 May .672 June .780 July .541 August 1.389 His last 7 is 2.133. If he can be what he was in June then he's at least somewhat serviceable. He still has a 36.3% strike out and 5.2% walk rate with a .329 BABIP on the season. He may not have a massive contract, but a -0.5 WAR still impacts the on field product. I think my concern is that he's going to do enough to continue the experiment into next year after having a -1.5 WAR going into the deadline. If this were Casas I'd be OK with the numbers. Not thrilled, but willing to give a very long leash, much like with Duran (though shorter than Casas). The age and strike out history with Dalbec gives me much less hope.
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2021 9:04:06 GMT -5
Matt Andriese being one of their more positive players in a 2-10 stretch by not playing is hysterical
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2021 9:27:29 GMT -5
Hernandez 4 Renfroe 9 Bogaerts 6 Devers 5 Martinez 7 Schwarber DH Dalbec 3 Verdugo 8 Vazquez 2
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 15, 2021 9:45:07 GMT -5
Hernandez 4 Renfroe 9 Bogaerts 6 Devers 5 Martinez 7 Schwarber DH Dalbec 3 Verdugo 8 Vazquez 2 Like that line-up. Would like to see Arroyo at 2b and Kiké in CF. When Arroyo comes back vs lefties. Either give Verdugo a day off or Schwarber vs lefties. In a stadium with a big OF, I’d be more inclined to play Verdugo in LF than Schwarber.
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2021 9:56:14 GMT -5
Hernandez 4 Renfroe 9 Bogaerts 6 Devers 5 Martinez 7 Schwarber DH Dalbec 3 Verdugo 8 Vazquez 2 Like that line-up. Would like to see Arroyo at 2b and Kiké in CF. When Arroyo comes back vs lefties. Either give Verdugo a day off or Schwarber vs lefties. In a stadium with a big OF, I’d be more inclined to play Verdugo in LF than Schwarber. The way I look at it they’ll be choosing between Renfroe and Dalbec (if this current trend continues) against righties and Verdugo and Schwarber against lefties
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 15, 2021 10:29:28 GMT -5
Like that line-up. Would like to see Arroyo at 2b and Kiké in CF. When Arroyo comes back vs lefties. Either give Verdugo a day off or Schwarber vs lefties. In a stadium with a big OF, I’d be more inclined to play Verdugo in LF than Schwarber. The way I look at it they’ll be choosing between Renfroe and Dalbec (if this current trend continues) against righties and Verdugo and Schwarber against lefties Schwarber will be in the lineup every day when he's completely healed, just like Xander, Julio and Raffy. He's murder on RHP and merely above-average vs. LHP. No reason to sit that bat.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 15, 2021 10:33:46 GMT -5
Matt Andriese being one of their more positive players in a 2-10 stretch by not playing is hysterical Andriese could well contribute to the big club down the stretch. He's doing fine in his AAA rehab so far (3G, 4IP, 3H, 4K) and it's quite possible that his poor performance before was caused by a nagging injury that's now healed. Not saying, just saying.
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2021 10:35:34 GMT -5
The way I look at it they’ll be choosing between Renfroe and Dalbec (if this current trend continues) against righties and Verdugo and Schwarber against lefties Schwarber will be in the lineup every day when he's completely healed, just like Xander, Julio and Raffy. He's murder on RHP and merely above-average vs. LHP. No reason to sit that bat.
I agree, just depends if you want to give him a little extra rest and what you want to do defensively. He’s in the lineup in any must-win game for sure
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2021 10:38:00 GMT -5
Matt Andriese being one of their more positive players in a 2-10 stretch by not playing is hysterical Andriese could well contribute to the big club down the stretch. He's doing fine in his AAA rehab so far (3G, 4IP, 3H, 4K) and it's quite possible that his poor performance before was caused by a nagging injury that's now healed. Not saying, just saying.
I don’t really see much of a spot for him at the moment, who’d you get rid of for him?
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 15, 2021 10:48:46 GMT -5
Are we Red Sox fans? I mean that is your avatar right, redsoxfan2. OK we shouldn't show any enthusiasm for a player who has struggled and has played a lot better lately. I guess I will go with your take that he is useless and can't help them win this year. Yes, but it's just a realistic outlook. Bobby is hot right now. He has been aided by a lot of luck before feasting on some of the worst pitching in MLB. He's also 26 and the Red Sox just shipped out 25 year old Michael Chavis after giving up on him. People are acting like he's turned a corner. I'm still highly skeptical. He can hit lefties decently and isn't a great defensive 1B. His OPS by month: April .619 May .672 June .780 July .541 August 1.389 His last 7 is 2.133. If he can be what he was in June then he's at least somewhat serviceable. He still has a 36.3% strike out and 5.2% walk rate with a .329 BABIP on the season. He may not have a massive contract, but a -0.5 WAR still impacts the on field product. I think my concern is that he's going to do enough to continue the experiment into next year after having a -1.5 WAR going into the deadline. If this were Casas I'd be OK with the numbers. Not thrilled, but willing to give a very long leash, much like with Duran (though shorter than Casas). The age and strike out history with Dalbec gives me much less hope. I would agree that given that Casas doesn't look like he will be ready early next year if at all, I would not want the Sox to go into next year with Dalbec alone at first. If that is what you are getting at. Now maybe Schwarber proves he can play 1st, which I expect to be true, and they sign him to stay, not a given, then I would be ok with keeping Dalbec with some added depth behind him. I just hope that BD can become a 800+OPS hitter more consistently. I don't expect him to be in Boston LT and just want him to be a plus while here and build value towards a trade. And yes the Sox have given him an extraordinary leash but he did hit last Sept. and in June so their were signs that he could produce. Sorry to jump on you but as a fan I root for all of them and try to stay away from being negative. Sports for me is a positive thing, I don't get too down on losing as a Boston fan I have endured plenty. The winning is fun. I was in St Louis at games 3 and 4 when the curse was broken so I have felt the highs but when they lose I don't give it a seconds thought I just move on to football season. Which I was ready to do given the last few weeks but I think this team has enough to turn it around and surprise some people again.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 15, 2021 10:51:16 GMT -5
Do the Orioles want to win? They've been an eye sore for 3 years in a row. Eventually someone in Manfreds office has to do something...right? This is embarrassing. Sox played great today during the home run derby but im sorry that the fans left in Baltimore have to watch such a sorry product. MLB needs to disincentivize bad ownership that doesn't spend on players, stinks on the field, and still makes money.
Unfortunately, the commish is basically the owners' lawyer but maybe if there's enough pressure from big-market owners, they can institute some sort of rule that penalizes teams that both lose and don't spend for 3 or 4 consecutive years.
Take away a draft pick (i.e. piss off fans) and cut them out of the big TV money pie (i.e. hit them where they live).
In other words, give sh!tty owners an incentive to get up from the table and sell the team.
Also, when a team wins it all, give them a big bonus slice of the pie, which would be inversely proportional to their market size and therefore disproportionately large for teams like KC or TB.
Make winning rings a legit money maker and fielding a team that can't possibly win a money loser.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 15, 2021 10:54:44 GMT -5
Andriese could well contribute to the big club down the stretch. He's doing fine in his AAA rehab so far (3G, 4IP, 3H, 4K) and it's quite possible that his poor performance before was caused by a nagging injury that's now healed. Not saying, just saying.
I don’t really see much of a spot for him at the moment, who’d you get rid of for him? Austin "Big Fudge" Davis has options and is basically a mop-up guy without length right now (he was acquired for the future anyway).
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2021 11:09:45 GMT -5
I don’t really see much of a spot for him at the moment, who’d you get rid of for him? Austin "Big Fudge" Davis has options and is basically a mop-up guy without length right now (he was acquired for the future anyway).
Fair, I think he’s up because they want another lefty until Darwinzon is back though so I’m not sure if they’re willing to do it yet I mean, I wouldn’t complain if they did lol
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 15, 2021 11:12:54 GMT -5
Bobby is hitting well against a team with AAAA pitchers. Let's pump the breaks here. There's a reason the Red Sox have scored 14 runs today and 8 yesterday. He's still a pretty useless player with no real upside. The Orioles would kill for some AAAA pitchers. To add some context, here are the collective stats for his last 30 games, taken from a screenshot at BR (click to expand): Some of this has to be the result of his last few games, but still the K rate is right at 30% which is a big improvement, and while the BABIP is high at .388, he does hit the ball hard. So there may be hope. For those 30 games, his line is .277/.333/.506 which has to be seen as an improvement.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 15, 2021 11:20:58 GMT -5
The Orioles would kill for some AAAA pitchers. To add some context, here are the collective stats for his last 30 games, taken from a screenshot at BR (click to expand): Some of this has to be the result of his last few games, but still the K rate is right at 30% which is a big improvement, and while the BABIP is high at .388, he does hit the ball hard. So there may be hope. For those 30 games, his line is .277/.333/.506 which has to be seen as an improvement. 30 games is a reasonable sample. I also feel he is making less mistakes at 1B. So that is a positive.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 15, 2021 11:31:10 GMT -5
How long since the Sox had a lineup as good as today’s???
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