2022 MLB Draft

So ok, HS pitchers are risky, even college pitchers..so what is RS drafting strategy? American draft get them hitters high and then buy as many Venezuelan pitchers as you can get internationally and see who hits for peanuts? If that is the strategy seems to be kinda working the last 3 years but we’ll have to see. I guess my question is teams say BPA every time, for every draft…that’s fine. But it is obvious that teams value players and maybe even positions differently. For example TB will usually get that HS pitcher somewhere in the top 3 picks…but maybe because they have to? Maybe because they know they can’t just buy a stud if it comes to it (great trades and 1/2 year deals sure but). I just wonder if the Red Sox draft model skews even more heavily against the HS pitchers than others…and who knows if Philly didn’t pop Abel right before us…(2 spots). Or how much does it depend on scouting strength. What if as an organization you are just really really good at picking hitters, (Yorke, Casas, Devers, Bogaerts). What do you guys think? This would be the year to grab a pitcher early but…maybe just load up on hitters again? We haven’t developed a starting pitcher since Clay (kopech pen, Barnes pen, groome not yet). Buck the trend or lean into success? Your thoughts?

The Red Sox hitter preference goes beyond Round 1 in recent years. In the past 4 drafts, the Red Sox have selected 7 hitters and 0 pitchers in the first 2 rounds. In that same timeframe, they've signed 9 hitters and 0 pitchers to bonuses surpassing $750K. The biggest bonus given to a pitcher in the past 4 years is Shane Drohan's $600K bonus followed closely by Durbin Feltman's $559,600 bonus.

If you listen Paul Toboni's recent interviews, including this great SP interview, you hear him use the word "risk" a fair amount. As Chris noted above, the risk that pitchers carry seems to obviously play into their draft board evaluation, likely leading to a BPA bias toward hitters at least toward the top of their boards.

I think you and Chris make great points… and maybe it’s just a small sample size fluke right? But if you look at the dodgers and rays 1st and 2nd picks the last five years, they will blend in the high risk pitchers (even the hurt guys JT Ginn). I think this year with us having so many picks though…we might get a better idea if the super heavy hitter preference is just noise, or a real philosophy.

Brian Bannister was on a podcast (maybe the SP podcast?) a few years ago, and IIRC his philosophy was that there are only 3-4 guys each draft with the physical skills to be true starting pitchers, and they’re gone in the first 15 picks. In other words, if they’re not in a position to grab one of those guys, they’re likely to go position player. I have no idea if that represents his own thoughts or an organizational philosophy (and also he’s not with the Sox anymore), but it lines up with what ramireja was saying.

BA's first mock:

24. Red Sox — Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi State

Analysis basically mentions that they'll go best player available.

www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/

Jud fabian's father just said in a reply on @redsoxstats Twitter that Jud wouldn't go to the Red Sox in the draft even if they called. So we can officially cross one name off the draft list

Red Sox would need his permission to draft him, so he'd just say "no" and another team would eventually draft him.

I could be wrong but it sounds like he has a grudge against the Sox. I'm guessing he warned the Sox not to draft him because he had a sweet deal set up with Baltimore and the Sox swooped in and drafted him anyways and mucked up the big deal he thought he was getting with the Orioles. And then the Sox offered him far less than Baltimore would have given him.

That's fine....I doubt he's a generational talent. I'm sure the Sox can draft somebody else in his stead and do just as well if not better.

I think the question I really want to know is: Will Connor Prielipp give us permission to draft him again? (and I'm mostly kidding, I have no reason to suspect he wouldn't)

Definitely soaring towards the top 7. Only hope may be if he gets past that point and the Red Sox offer him top 10 $$$ and give him most the cash from the two 2nds, and the Erod comp pick

I can tell you that I don't believe they were trying to do anything to get Jack Leiter to fall. Many things reported around the draft are just not true.

For example, at this point I'm comfortable saying that my understanding is that they had no interest in Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2020, but there were multiple reports saying they were.

My guess on Leiter, and this is what some of the sources I trust most were surmising by the end, is that his family (read: Al) was trying to secure him the best deal with a team that would have an interest in getting him to the majors (read: not in a deep rebuild like the O's). I'm sure the Leiters would've loved for him to get to the Red Sox at 4. They also wanted him to get the best deal possible given that he had lots of leverage as a DE Soph. Floating the Red Sox thing makes all the sense in the world from their side, and meanwhile, not quashing the rumor makes all the sense in the world from the Red Sox side as a smokescreen and as a way to drive up his price for Texas.

I respect that you have a ton of good sources. I thought I also remember a Red Sox official coming out and simply commenting on the type of player Leiter is and how they were interested and know he will do well. ( it might have even been Henry). I know fangraphs was pretty adamant that they were trying to get him to fall or interested in him falling. And time will tell who’s right. I think again this year will be a test case on where/if they value pitching and what type of pitching. We have extra picks. Where will we pick one and if so what kind will it be. By kind I mean there was a tendency in the Theo regime and after to pick college pitchers in some of earlier rounds. Rarely have we targeted a high risk high school arm ( I realize groome was exactly that). It will be an interesting observation to make.

Secondly I wonder if the use of more “openers” and reducing the starter workload makes pitching less valuable in their eyes. What I mean by that is you might feel your no longer drafting for a 7-8 inning ace or number 2 starter and now drafting for a 5-6 inning starter or high quality reliever for those 6-9 innings. Those players seem easier to find and therefor could be picked later in the draft leaving your early rounds open for the impact hitters more