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Red Sox vs. Rays 2021 ALDS Gameday Thread
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Post by benzinger on Oct 9, 2021 12:57:31 GMT -5
A few thoughts on last night now that I’ve had some time to collect myself:
-It would have been REALLY easy for the Red Sox to fold after quickly going up 2 and then promptly falling behind 5-2. They showed a tremendous amount of heart(maybe more than I had given them credit for) in that comeback.
-Houck. Wow! I don’t know how he did that, but he was simply remarkable. The Rays’ bats were on fire and they were smelling blood and he totally neutralized them. A truly amazing performance.
-The Sox lineup is loaded when you can bat a guy like Renfroe 7th(he’ll have better games).
-Verdugo, Bogaerts & JDM picked the PERFECT time to be hot.
-Bullpen pitchers can be wildly unpredictable from month-to-month. Earlier in the year, they were carried by the likes of Barnes and Ottavino. Now they have guys like Robles and Brasier pitching lights-out. No need to overthink it. Just nice to have a couple hot hands to pick from. Think back to Joe Kelly in 2018 suddenly becoming unhittable in the postseason. It doesn’t have to make sense.
-Christian Arroyo has shown a flair for the dramatic. I’m confident he’ll get a big hit if he keeps going out there. As long as he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty good.
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Post by manfred on Oct 9, 2021 13:12:47 GMT -5
Houck’s performance demonstrates how our on-going conversations about his role are *regular season* discussions. The “3rd time through” issue seems borderline irrelevant in the playoffs. You just roll through your best pitchers to exhaustion. “Roles” disappear.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,142
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Post by jimoh on Oct 9, 2021 13:14:48 GMT -5
Still can’t get over Houck. What a monster. [...] [...] Is Stroman going to be in the rotation with Houck next year? or the guy that keeps him in the bullpen?
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 9, 2021 13:49:15 GMT -5
all we did was just tying up the series right? am i missing something? lets save all the gloating and questioning the rays' strategy until after we've officially secured the upset shall we? i mean aren't they the quintessential "smartest team" in baseball? who are we to question what they do after just winning one game? they're the team that's been able to have incredible sustained success with one of the lowest payrolls, they're the team that went to the world series just last year and they're also the team that ran away with our division this year, so lets give them some respect guys
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2021 14:33:30 GMT -5
Maybe I need to re-evaluate these teams, at least on the mound. Yes, Tampa won 100 games, and was a better team than we were over 6 months. But they are really testing the limits of pitching approach for the cauldron of a playoff series. In the playoffs, they started a rookie, albeit one with 25 starts, more than any other pitcher on their staff, in game one. They started another rookie WITH 3 GAMES OF MLB EXPERIENCE in game 2. They are starting a guy who made only 10 starts this year in one game in Fenway, along with a collection of relievers in another. Is that really what a 100-win team looks like on the mound now? If the playoffs are indeed another level of intensity and pressure than the regular season, the Rays are certainly putting the contemporary philosophical approach to pitching to a serious test in trying to make it work in October. Not to say they can't do it, but in my mind, I've got to see them pull it off before I believe that this is a workable approach to multiple rounds of playoff baseball. That being said, the Sox have had to adopt the contemporary approach so far in this series as well -- because their starters didn't have it. Let's see what happens with Eovaldi in game 3. I wonder if Rays ball is already a playoff plan? 162 games of all-hands-on-deck… which is a big advantage in the dog days when you face, say a Sox team hoping to get 5-6 out of Martin Perez. BUT… there is no next gear. With a more traditional staff like the Sox, come playoff time you suddenly find backend starters like Houck and Pivetta becoming ace relievers. So whatever the regular season matchup might look like, the Sox staff plays up in a way the Rays stuff does not. Now, they were excellent and stay excellent… not diminishing them. But the Sox (and other staffs) get a lot better in a short series. Exactly. People cited the Red Sox' bullpen as a weakness coming into the wild card game and the ALDS, but that "weakness" consisted primarily of Hernandez (not on the playoff roster), Sawamura (ditto), Perez (possibly in the South Pacific right now), Barnes (can still be trusted with an 8-run lead, apparently)... Meanwhile, Houck may end up pitching more innings than any Red Sox pitcher in this series; the "bullpen" now includes all the starters, as necessary; and we still haven't even had to use Whitlock, our single best reliever.
The Rays are innovative and they built a machine this season; but maybe Billy Beane's line is relevant here: "My s*** doesn't work in the playoffs."
...And speaking of this, what is the plan for games 4 and 5? I'm thinking they're both essentially "bullpen" games, but with Rodriguez and Pivetta as honorary members of the bullpen for game 4; and with Sale as the opener in game 5 (but allowed to go longer if he looks like himself)?
ADD: We need to get as many as 27 more outs. It might break down something like this:
Eovaldi: 5 IP Rodriguez: 3 Pivetta: 3 Sale: 3 (conservative estimate!) Houck: 4 Whitlock: 4 Brasier: 2 Robles: 2 Mystery reliever: 1
In theory no one would even have to pitch on consecutive days in this scenario.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 9, 2021 14:42:37 GMT -5
I’d like to see Sawamura back for the ALCS if we make it.
I would still start ERod in game 4 but with a short leash. Game 5 I would start Houck.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,142
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Post by jimoh on Oct 9, 2021 14:49:45 GMT -5
all we did was just tying up the series right? am i missing something? lets save all the gloating and questioning the rays' strategy until after we've officially secured the upset shall we? i mean aren't they the quintessential "smartest team" in baseball? who are we to question what they do after just winning one game? they're the team that's been able to have incredible sustained success with one of the lowest payrolls, they're the team that went to the world series just last year and they're also the team that ran away with our division this year, so lets give them some respect guys we got a split in the first two games and now we have the home field advantage for two of the final three.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 9, 2021 15:32:35 GMT -5
I like this team to finish at home but I want them to get another crack at there ace.
I love Tanner he is one adjustment away from getting thru 3x . Look at the Sox there going young before our eyes. I am convinced ERod last days . Unless they qualify him. Schwab is going to cash in.
I am so pumped they responded like that.
The White Sox division was a joke.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 9, 2021 16:05:10 GMT -5
Just wanna say AC and Bloom is one hell of a 1-2 combo, we’re in good hands moving forward
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 9, 2021 16:18:21 GMT -5
Still can’t get over Houck. What a monster. Stroman commented on Houck multiple times now, fan boy confirmed! What's the over under on Stroman wearing a RS jersey next year? I'm more intrigued by the Scherzer/Houck connection.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 9, 2021 16:28:48 GMT -5
Stroman commented on Houck multiple times now, fan boy confirmed! What's the over under on Stroman wearing a RS jersey next year? I'm more intrigued by the Scherzer/Houck connection. Scherzer on a one or two year deal would be so nice
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 9, 2021 17:46:58 GMT -5
That Scherzer contract worked out well for the Nats.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 9, 2021 17:51:35 GMT -5
Too many Red Sox thoughts, and way too many things to (try to) get done on the off day... irresistible force meets object with, alas, the immovability of Jello.
JDM's go-ahead bomb was my favorite moment of his in a Red Sox uni. Never been happier, both for the outcome and for what it says about his approach.
I just discovered that Kiké's turn-around began not on June 27 but June 19. They moved him down from lead off and back twice (on June 5 and 19), each time giving him two off days after the demotion. He started hitting immediately after the second demotion. His O-Swing shrunk dramatically. I'll run the full numbers later, but Struggling to Become New Kiké was a 72 - 77 wRC+ hitter and Actual New Kiké is 150 - 156. If you exclude the 9 post-COVID days when he had a -23 wRC+ (and obviously you should), Kiké Hernandez has the second best player in MLB (to Juan Soto, by fWAR ) since June 19. It's past 300 PA, now. Houck's best pitch this year has been his splitter. It certainly appears that Fox Sports has someone who gathers info to pass on to Smoltz, as they did eventually mention Houck's virtual perfect game. Presumably, there is a pre-series briefing document, with stuff like pitchers' repertoires. (Note that Eck runs it down every time a new opposing pitcher enters the game.) But it's also obvious that Smoltz reads nothing they give him. Calling Houck's splitter a changeup, and then later noting that it had splitter-like action ... he should be embarassed. What's with holding the camera on a hitter after he's hit an apparent bomb, rather than showing us the flight of the ball? They actually kept the camera on Dugie for his entire pose and his first two steps towards first. On what planet is seeing that more interesting than seeing where the ball is headed, how far it's carrying, and what the fielder is doing? There were a couple of other moments of directorial ineptitude, where they had no clue as to what to show us. I am as strongly pro-vax as you could imagine, but the next person who raises this issue in the game thread? I'm going to hunt you down and make you watch A-Rod commentary, Clockwork Orange style. I have the gear in my Amazon cart. Has any post-season team ever gotten homers from five consecutive batting order slots in a game? We had 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Luplow was 2 for 6 in his career in balls above the zone from LHP (meaning he's not a chaser), but one of the 2 was off of Sale earlier this year. I don't think it was a terrible call in a vacuum -- the apparent problem was that it was predictable. Luplpw can't hit that out unless he's sitting on it.
1 for 4 sounds like an off day to old-school types. I've always regarded 1 for 4 with a walk and a double, which is a very common batting line, as the poster child for modern metrics, as that's a .400 OBP and .500 SA. Devers had two walks and a homer and hence a .500 OBP and 1.000 SA. And one of his outs was a 108.5 mph barrel that went 407' and had an .870 xBA, and was turned into an out by a magician. It should be illegal to note that he was 1 for 4 without noting the rest. It may be the best 1 for 4 in post-season history -- you'd have to walk three times to top it, and I doubt that's happened, and it's unlikely that anyone else with two walks had as hard an out as he did.
Barnes EV's: 77.3 (but .890 xBA), 80.1, 79.1. He stuff seems back to his post-sticky best. The FB command remains frustratingly come-and-go. (What's with missing to his glove side in pitch after pitch, outing after outing?) I'd say he has a 50/50 chance of his recovering it ...
And that's a segue for part 2 or 3, thoughts on the rest of the series. The other is a set of Dugie / Mookie clutch observations.
I've pretty much thought Kiké was the best player on the field during the second half. He doesn't get much credit though because his season slash lines don't say that. I'm not sure what basis you are using for deciding Houck's best pitch is his splitter but that's not the picture I get watching him. Something I pointed out earlier that you pooh-poohed is detailed by Houck himself in this article and makes it pretty obvious that slider evaluation can no longer by measured by normal average break analytics: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/how-tanner-houcks-happy-accident-helped-the-red-sox?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterAnd yes, Vazquez knows which variant is coming, at least in a general sense. About the only thing I got wrong was that I thought there were three variants. I thought that because Vazquez has three different ways he moves his glove before the actual break.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 9, 2021 18:01:29 GMT -5
Still can’t get over Houck. What a monster. [...] [...] Is Stroman going to be in the rotation with Houck next year? or the guy that keeps him in the bullpen? Sale Eovaldi Stroman Houck Pivetta This would be a pretty nice rotation in 2022 (let Whitlock stay where he was successful). I can not see Bloom spending $10 million for Richards to pitch 60 innings in the bullpen..... Perez and Richards options IMO will not be picked up although I would not be surprised if Robles were resigned to something like his current $2 - $3 million.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,697
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Post by cdj on Oct 9, 2021 18:04:36 GMT -5
Is Stroman going to be in the rotation with Houck next year? or the guy that keeps him in the bullpen? Sale Eovaldi Stroman Houck Pivetta This would be a pretty nice rotation in 2022 (let Whitlock stay where he was successful). Can kind of say the same thing about Houck, no? Guys been a better reliever than a starter to me (imo) I’m absolutely trying Whitlock as a starter though, no sense in not doing. No point in possibly punting on significantly increasing a guys value, whether that be to us or another team. If it doesn’t work out then we already have a role we know that works for him Like if he’s a good #5 starter that’s more valuable than what he is now.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 9, 2021 18:15:59 GMT -5
Sale Eovaldi Stroman Houck Pivetta This would be a pretty nice rotation in 2022 (let Whitlock stay where he was successful). Can kind of say the same thing about Houck, no? Guys been a better reliever than a starter to me (imo) I’m absolutely trying Whitlock as a starter though, no sense in not doing. No point in possibly punting on significantly increasing a guys value, whether that be to us or another team. If it doesn’t work out then we already have a role we know that works for him Like if he’s a good #5 starter that’s more valuable than what he is now. Whitlock is coming off TJ. I envision Daniel Bard 2.0 with Whitlock increasing his workload 3 fold. Houck made 13 starts and pitched well, and would have had plenty of wins if he had received runs support and the bullpen had not given any so many leads.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2021 18:21:24 GMT -5
Split the baby: Whitlock starts 2022 in his current role, moves to the rotation when necessary due to injury/performance. He can ramp up to, say, 110 IP or so without going all the way to a full starter's load.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 9, 2021 18:21:28 GMT -5
Can kind of say the same thing about Houck, no? Guys been a better reliever than a starter to me (imo) I’m absolutely trying Whitlock as a starter though, no sense in not doing. No point in possibly punting on significantly increasing a guys value, whether that be to us or another team. If it doesn’t work out then we already have a role we know that works for him Like if he’s a good #5 starter that’s more valuable than what he is now. Whitlock is coming off TJ. I envision Daniel Bard 2.0 with Whitlock increasing his workload 3 fold. Houck made 13 starts and pitched well, and would have had plenty of wins if he had received runs support and the bullpen had not given any so many leads. I have also read in several sources that the FO wants to keep Houck as a starter.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 9, 2021 18:28:20 GMT -5
Okay, but if we sign Stroman, my money's on his dad and Duran's dad against Baz's dad.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,697
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Post by cdj on Oct 9, 2021 18:41:13 GMT -5
Can kind of say the same thing about Houck, no? Guys been a better reliever than a starter to me (imo) I’m absolutely trying Whitlock as a starter though, no sense in not doing. No point in possibly punting on significantly increasing a guys value, whether that be to us or another team. If it doesn’t work out then we already have a role we know that works for him Like if he’s a good #5 starter that’s more valuable than what he is now. Whitlock is coming off TJ. I envision Daniel Bard 2.0 with Whitlock increasing his workload 3 fold. Houck made 13 starts and pitched well, and would have had plenty of wins if he had received runs support and the bullpen had not given any so many leads. Daniel Bard had TO syndrome and completely lost the strike zone, that’s why he was ineffective. Maybe Whitlock could get injured but I guarantee he’s not losing the zone in the way Bard did. I’d at the very least ramp Whitlock up over 100 innings next season
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 9, 2021 18:55:54 GMT -5
Whitlock is coming off TJ. I envision Daniel Bard 2.0 with Whitlock increasing his workload 3 fold. Houck made 13 starts and pitched well, and would have had plenty of wins if he had received runs support and the bullpen had not given any so many leads. Daniel Bard had TO syndrome and completely lost the strike zone, that’s why he was ineffective. Maybe Whitlock could get injured but I guarantee he’s not losing the zone in the way Bard did. I’d at the very least ramp Whitlock up over 100 innings next season I agree with 100 innings! He is extremely valuable, so I would not push him beyond 100 innings until 2023, so he can prove he can stay healthy and productive. Whitlock was by far the best pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen this year. Think Derek Lowe in 2000, he had 42 saves, 91.1 innings, 2.56 ERA.... Then in 2002 as a starter he was 21-8, 219.2 innings, 2.58 ERA..... if Whitlock could duplicate that I would be just fine with it.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Oct 9, 2021 19:16:15 GMT -5
Sale Eovaldi Stroman Houck Pivetta This would be a pretty nice rotation in 2022 (let Whitlock stay where he was successful). Can kind of say the same thing about Houck, no? Guys been a better reliever than a starter to me (imo) I’m absolutely trying Whitlock as a starter though, no sense in not doing. No point in possibly punting on significantly increasing a guys value, whether that be to us or another team. If it doesn’t work out then we already have a role we know that works for him Like if he’s a good #5 starter that’s more valuable than what he is now. Daniel Bard says hello.
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Post by manfred on Oct 9, 2021 19:25:22 GMT -5
Bard is a poor cautionary tale. He’d been a reliever for a while, and he developed issues physically and mentally that were specific to him.
There are reasons not to shuffle (not 99, probably), but Bard ain’t one.
Houck has to be given a chance as a starter. Let’s face it, the issues he has had with lengthening starts etc. are really pretty normal growing pains. This has been a year (and a bit of a year last year) to grow on. They’d be cautious increasing innings anyway, so if he could get 140-150 next year, these says he’s a mid-rotation starter. At least.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2021 19:36:36 GMT -5
I hope Houck is starter next year and Whitlock stays as a closer. Instead of Pivetta I like the Sox sign Jon Gray I think you get him out of Coors Field and his career could take off like Garret Coles did.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 9, 2021 19:41:29 GMT -5
Can the Sox sign Stroman for less money than ERod? If yes, he’s gone. The problem with a QO is that ERod could well accept it. He has not exactly pitched the lights out this year.
Then there is the Scherzer fantasy. My strong inclination is that he stays on the West Coast probably with the Dodgers. Sure, get him if you can. But highly unlikely in my opinion.
As for the Whitlock vs Houck as starters next year, I will be very OK with a rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock if it comes to that.
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