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Red Sox vs. Rays 2021 ALDS Gameday Thread
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 9, 2021 19:42:38 GMT -5
I hope Houck is starter next year and Whitlock stays as a closer. Instead of Pivetta I like the Sox sign Jon Gray I think you get him out of Coors Field and his career could take off like Garret Coles did. Maybe this is 2020s version of Lester (Houck) and Paplebon (Whitlock) minus the river dance.
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Post by patford on Oct 9, 2021 19:51:59 GMT -5
Bard is a poor cautionary tale. He’d been a reliever for a while, and he developed issues physically and mentally that were specific to him. There are reasons not to shuffle (not 99, probably), but Bard ain’t one. Houck has to be given a chance as a starter. Let’s face it, the issues he has had with lengthening starts etc. are really pretty normal growing pains. This has been a year (and a bit of a year last year) to grow on. They’d be cautious increasing innings anyway, so if he could get 140-150 next year, these says he’s a mid-rotation starter. At least. It's well documented that Bard fell off the cliff before he was moved to starting. In fact he was arguably the worst player on the team during the 2011 collapse. www.espn.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7036912/boston-red-sox-ugly-september-shows-numbers"Daniel Bard had the most unfortunate month on a staff of dismal performances. He finished September 0-4 with a 10.64 ERA, issuing more walks (nine) than he had in the previous three months combined (eight). Based on win probability added (WPA), the player most responsible for Boston's collapse was Bard, followed by Jarrod Saltalamacchia."
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cdj
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Posts: 15,697
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Post by cdj on Oct 9, 2021 20:28:15 GMT -5
Can kind of say the same thing about Houck, no? Guys been a better reliever than a starter to me (imo) I’m absolutely trying Whitlock as a starter though, no sense in not doing. No point in possibly punting on significantly increasing a guys value, whether that be to us or another team. If it doesn’t work out then we already have a role we know that works for him Like if he’s a good #5 starter that’s more valuable than what he is now. Daniel Bard says hello. I think manfred outlined pretty well why that’s not a great excuse to keep Whitlock out of the rotation but there have been plenty of pitchers who have gone from reliever to starter successfully, on a small scale Brandon Walter in our own system this season So what do you thinks more likely to happen- the guy that’s been a starter all but 1 season of his career starts walking a million batters per 9 or goes back to doing what he was doing in 2018 in the minors (120 innings of lights out ball)? And then you build on that
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Post by waiverClaim on Oct 9, 2021 20:45:19 GMT -5
TB v. Sox warrants 50 pages, but ATL v. Mil is so dull I can't watch.
SF v. LA ain't much better, but maybe in the late innings ...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2021 21:24:04 GMT -5
TB v. Sox warrants 50 pages, but ATL v. Mil is so dull I can't watch. SF v. LA ain't much better, but maybe in the late innings ... SF v. LA to be honest is most likely your world series
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 9, 2021 21:26:36 GMT -5
Can the Sox sign Stroman for less money than ERod? If yes, he’s gone. The problem with a QO is that ERod could well accept it. He has not exactly pitched the lights out this year. Then there is the Scherzer fantasy. My strong inclination is that he stays on the West Coast probably with the Dodgers. Sure, get him if you can. But highly unlikely in my opinion. As for the Whitlock vs Houck as starters next year, I will be very OK with a rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock if it comes to that. that’s a potentially good rotation, I wouldn’t mind seeing it next September, but who is your depth? This year was weird in that the top 5 started showed up for the much of the season, but usually your sixth or seventh starters get a larger number of starts. Or your ninth as in in 2020. You need another body, whether ERod or a FA. Seabold is not enough.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 9, 2021 21:30:00 GMT -5
TB v. Sox warrants 50 pages, but ATL v. Mil is so dull I can't watch. SF v. LA ain't much better, but maybe in the late innings ... Giants’ fans might think you have lost your mind.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 9, 2021 21:34:52 GMT -5
TB v. Sox warrants 50 pages, but ATL v. Mil is so dull I can't watch. SF v. LA ain't much better, but maybe in the late innings ... Giants’ fans might think you have lost your mind. Good points. I would expect Bloom to solve that problem at far less expense than ERod will get next year. And if he solves it with an established starter, then the Whitlock vs Houck starter role will be grist for multiple pages of opinion here.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 9, 2021 21:38:44 GMT -5
Giants’ fans might think you have lost your mind. Good points. I would expect Bloom to solve that problem at far less expense than ERod will get next year. And if he solves it with an established starter, then the Whitlock vs Houck starter role will be grist for multiple pages of opinion here.
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 9, 2021 21:40:26 GMT -5
Good points. I would expect Bloom to solve that problem at far less expense than ERod will get next year. And if he solves it with an established starter, then the Whitlock vs Houck starter role will be grist for multiple pages of opinion here. OOPS. Meant to quote Jimoh above and his salient points re the rotation next year.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 9, 2021 21:46:47 GMT -5
OOPS. Meant to quote Jimoh above and his salient points re the rotation next year. too early to be this drunk bro
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Post by manfred on Oct 9, 2021 21:47:40 GMT -5
OOPS. Meant to quote Jimoh above and his salient points re the rotation next year. too early to be this drunk bro Tsk. It is NEVER too early.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 9, 2021 23:08:37 GMT -5
Can the Sox sign Stroman for less money than ERod? If yes, he’s gone. The problem with a QO is that ERod could well accept it. He has not exactly pitched the lights out this year. Then there is the Scherzer fantasy. My strong inclination is that he stays on the West Coast probably with the Dodgers. Sure, get him if you can. But highly unlikely in my opinion. As for the Whitlock vs Houck as starters next year, I will be very OK with a rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock if it comes to that. We also have Seabold and Crawford waiting in the wings and both likely to play some role on the Sox next year. Groome maybe by mid season. Mata and Ward will not likely be ready anytime soon but maybe by September they might also have a role. There are other stud pitchers rising, Bello for example. The future looks bright right now.] I doubt if the Sox will sign any long term starters this off season including ERod.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 9, 2021 23:56:05 GMT -5
too early to be this drunk bro Tsk. It is NEVER too early. It's drunk o'clock somewhere...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 10, 2021 0:09:23 GMT -5
Is Stroman going to be in the rotation with Houck next year? or the guy that keeps him in the bullpen? Sale Eovaldi Stroman Houck Pivetta This would be a pretty nice rotation in 2022 (let Whitlock stay where he was successful). I can not see Bloom spending $10 million for Richards to pitch 60 innings in the bullpen..... Perez and Richards options IMO will not be picked up although I would not be surprised if Robles were resigned to something like his current $2 - $3 million. I wouldn't mind seeing Pivetta moved to the closer role and see if you can get two starters out of Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, and maybe one of Chaim's out-of-nowhere FAs. I'm also still holding out hope for Scherzer, in which case f*** everything, we're going wire to wire!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2021 1:22:53 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2021 1:51:05 GMT -5
Too many Red Sox thoughts, and way too many things to (try to) get done on the off day... irresistible force meets object with, alas, the immovability of Jello.
I just discovered that Kiké's turn-around began not on June 27 but June 19. They moved him down from lead off and back twice (on June 5 and 19), each time giving him two off days after the demotion. He started hitting immediately after the second demotion. His O-Swing shrunk dramatically. I'll run the full numbers later, but Struggling to Become New Kiké was a 72 - 77 wRC+ hitter and Actual New Kiké is 150 - 156. If you exclude the 9 post-COVID days when he had a -23 wRC+ (and obviously you should), Kiké Hernandez has the second best player in MLB (to Juan Soto, by fWAR ) since June 19. It's past 300 PA, now. Houck's best pitch this year has been his splitter. And that's a segue for part 2 or 3, thoughts on the rest of the series. The other is a set of Dugie / Mookie clutch observations.
I've pretty much thought Kiké was the best player on the field during the second half. He doesn't get much credit though because his season slash lines don't say that. I'm not sure what basis you are using for deciding Houck's best pitch is his splitter but that's not the picture I get watching him. Something I pointed out earlier that you pooh-poohed is detailed by Houck himself in this article and makes it pretty obvious that slider evaluation can no longer by measured by normal average break analytics: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/how-tanner-houcks-happy-accident-helped-the-red-sox?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterAnd yes, Vazquez knows which variant is coming, at least in a general sense. About the only thing I got wrong was that I thought there were three variants. I thought that because Vazquez has three different ways he moves his glove before the actual break. I now have a Kiké spreadsheet with exactly 80 columns. He had 222 PA with a 72 wRC+, then 328 with a 150. And, sure, there's some luck there -- the expected numbers are 69 and 152. That's 1.5 fWAR per 150 G to 8.0. Much more thrilling detail later.
Houck's splitter has the highest Run Value per 100 pitches. Pure results. And I don't recall pooh-poohing anything that made Houck look more promising. His 2020 slider was in the 99th percentile in movement.
Statcast (Savant) can do release points and strike zone locations, but not horizontal and vertical movement.
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Post by manfred on Oct 10, 2021 8:38:52 GMT -5
Funny thing about this: it still doesn’t *feel* like it. That is, when Robles comes in, I break out in a cold sweat. But so far, so great!
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Post by yaz1967 on Oct 10, 2021 9:01:55 GMT -5
If Robles delivers a cold sweet what does Barnes bring on?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 10, 2021 9:12:55 GMT -5
I've pretty much thought Kiké was the best player on the field during the second half. He doesn't get much credit though because his season slash lines don't say that. I'm not sure what basis you are using for deciding Houck's best pitch is his splitter but that's not the picture I get watching him. Something I pointed out earlier that you pooh-poohed is detailed by Houck himself in this article and makes it pretty obvious that slider evaluation can no longer by measured by normal average break analytics: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/how-tanner-houcks-happy-accident-helped-the-red-sox?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterAnd yes, Vazquez knows which variant is coming, at least in a general sense. About the only thing I got wrong was that I thought there were three variants. I thought that because Vazquez has three different ways he moves his glove before the actual break. I now have a Kiké spreadsheet with exactly 80 columns. He had 222 PA with a 72 wRC+, then 328 with a 150. And, sure, there's some luck there -- the expected numbers are 69 and 152. That's 1.5 fWAR per 150 G to 8.0. Much more thrilling detail later. Houck's splitter has the highest Run Value per 100 pitches. Pure results. And I don't recall pooh-poohing anything that made Houck look more promising. His 2020 slider was in the 99th percentile in movement. Statcast (Savant) can do release points and strike zone locations, but not horizontal and vertical movement.
When I mentioned it the first time your response was that the only pitcher you had ever seen attempt that was Dice-K and that was late in his career. I kept seeing it visually but didn't want to mention it again until Houck said it himself, I'm not one to want to continuously repeat the same thing. That was this August. Average Horizontal and Vertical movement for a pitcher that can intentionally incrementally vary from East-West to North-South makes no sense. That was last year, he wasn't doing that last year. For this year, you would have to analyze every slider separately which I'm pretty sure that's not public information. Pitching Ninja could probably do overlays. Calling highest run value , "best pitch" is semantically just wrong. If the run value is lower because the batters are keying on the slider that's different but just semantics. It doesn't take much watching to know that his splitter is not his "best pitch".
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Post by manfred on Oct 10, 2021 9:47:37 GMT -5
If Robles delivers a cold sweet what does Barnes bring on? This is a family site!
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Post by jmei on Oct 10, 2021 9:51:24 GMT -5
Tsk. It is NEVER too early. It's drunk o'clock somewhere... I rarely get to do this, so am taking the opportunity to refer you to one of my favorite ground rules: d. Don't brag about how often you get drunk. I'm not sure why this gets brought up here that often, but for a while it did. Maybe it's because we have a lot of college-age members. If you love to party, great. But to brag about how often you get wasted on a message board is bush league.
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Post by Canseco on Oct 10, 2021 10:18:12 GMT -5
Crap. I just realized this game is on MLBN, which I don’t have on cable. Does anyone know if an MLB.tv subscription from the regular season will work for streaming? Ugh!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 10, 2021 10:23:16 GMT -5
Crap. I just realized this game is on MLBN, which I don’t have on cable. Does anyone know if an MLB.tv subscription from the regular season will work for streaming? Ugh! I can't see it either. Mine dropped MLB network so I'll have to locate a radio and listen to Joe Castiglione and hope I don't get too much static. Ridiculous.
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Post by cheers on Oct 10, 2021 10:53:26 GMT -5
Crap. I just realized this game is on MLBN, which I don’t have on cable. Does anyone know if an MLB.tv subscription from the regular season will work for streaming? Ugh! I can't see it either. Mine dropped MLB network so I'll have to locate a radio and listen to Joe Castiglione and hope I don't get too much static. Ridiculous. Way to stick it to your already dwindling fan base, MLB.
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