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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2021 13:01:24 GMT -5
I’m all set on Dalbec. Would rather see Verdugo and Schwarber.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,020
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Post by mobaz on Oct 18, 2021 13:13:54 GMT -5
Here's my less scientific three chunks of the season (ERA/FIP/xFIP):
4/8-5/7: 3.82/3.68/3.37 5/12-6/15: 8.55/3.59/3.38 6/22-10/3: 3.66/3.09/3.47
There is exactly one outlier in his ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers going back to 2017 and it's his 2021 ERA. And there is exactly one outlier in the three chunks listed above and it's his 5/12-6/15 ERA.
Seven games of bad luck. That's all it is.
“You know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball — a ground ball with eyes! — you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium."
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 13:23:49 GMT -5
Wow 3 straight in Boston. I pray the pitching holds up. I’m pretty confident in the offense. Which ERod do we get tonight? He has a touch of Bucholtz in him. When he is on he is better. One of the things about ERod is Cora will know early if he has it or doesn't, it is usually evident early as he needs to hit his spots.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Oct 18, 2021 13:39:37 GMT -5
Yikes! Cora just said on High Heat that Nate will be "spikes on" and is available tonight to pitch 1 inning out of the pen. If that happens, that would seem to cement a Game 6 start if that game is played. Man, I don't know. Look what that relief appearence in SF took out of Scherzer. I hate the idea of Nate not pitching at full strength if we need a Game 6.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2021 13:41:41 GMT -5
Yikes! Cora just said on High Heat that Nate will be "spikes on" and is available tonight to pitch 1 inning out of the pen. If that happens, that would seem to cement a Game 6 start if that game is played. Man, I don't know. Look what that relief appearence in SF took out of Scherzer. I hate the idea of Nate not pitching at full strength if we need a Game 6. Cora is managing the way he is so there won't be a game 6. Remember, this is his bullpen day. He's pitching an inning regardless of whether it's during the game or not.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 13:53:55 GMT -5
I’m all set on Dalbec. Would rather see Verdugo and Schwarber. Urquidy has big reverse splits so the chances are good Cora will stay true to form and start Dalbec. If thats the case I hope you end up regretting this for the Sox sake.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2021 13:59:36 GMT -5
Dalbec has really struggled lately.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2021 14:01:49 GMT -5
Currently trying to talk my employer into giving me this deal. I seem to be getting the Monday morning bemused Zoom stare... All of us need to play the lottery to come close. Truth! (even though each of us is clearly worth this much, if not more!)
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2021 14:06:29 GMT -5
Yikes! Cora just said on High Heat that Nate will be "spikes on" and is available tonight to pitch 1 inning out of the pen. If that happens, that would seem to cement a Game 6 start if that game is played. Man, I don't know. Look what that relief appearence in SF took out of Scherzer. I hate the idea of Nate not pitching at full strength if we need a Game 6. C ora is managing the way he is so there won't be a game 6.
Remember, this is his bullpen day. He's pitching an inning regardless of whether it's during the game or not. I hope so. Even if they did win the first two in Boston, I'd want Cora to be all in on game 5. Get it done, rest everyone and hope the NL playoff goes 7 games.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,694
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Post by cdj on Oct 18, 2021 14:33:53 GMT -5
No Dalbec tonight, primary lineup in (Schwarber at 1B, Vazquez catching)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2021 14:44:58 GMT -5
Here's my less scientific three chunks of the season (ERA/FIP/xFIP):
4/8-5/7: 3.82/3.68/3.37 5/12-6/15: 8.55/3.59/3.38 6/22-10/3: 3.66/3.09/3.47
There is exactly one outlier in his ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers going back to 2017 and it's his 2021 ERA. And there is exactly one outlier in the three chunks listed above and it's his 5/12-6/15 ERA.
Seven games of bad luck. That's all it is.
“You know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball — a ground ball with eyes! — you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium." The thing is, there is good reason to believe that some hitters have a PA-specific good-karma skill ("karma" being short for wOBA -xwOBA). Certainly we've seen guys intentionally slow their bat speed down in order to hit a ball with a low xBA with a good direction, to a spot where the defense isn't. Alex Verdugo does this against LHP when he's going well.
(This is related to, but must be kept separate from, slowing your bat speed down to hit a tough pitch in the air between the infielders and outfielders. IOW, a distance and hang-time "hit 'em where they ain't" instead of a directional one. Xander excels at this. It does not show up in Statcast as karma, but it does show up as low EV, high xBA.
Of course, this also happens when a guy swings hard and hits the ball just right, which is to say wrong but lucky. It's really easy to see the difference with the eye; we either say "that was a good piece of hitting" or "oh, man, that was pure luck." Bat speed data -- which teams have, I believe, but isn't at Savant -- would discriminate low-EV skill from low-EV luck very clearly.)
The way that xwOBA is derived, you can't come out ahead, with good karma, in the long run, and that's because the best hitters also hit the ball into skillfully positioned defenses.
So the hypothesis here is that in E-Rod's two stretches of bad karma (the second of which turned great pitching into solid), he was doing something that allowed a disproportionate number of hitters to choose to beat the defense rather than to try to hit into it successfully.
We also know that pulled fly balls have good karma, and fly balls hit to CF have bad karma. The pitcher absolutely does contribute to the batted ball direction there. So a second factor that might create an extended stretch of bad karma is doing something that skews fly ball direction.
Whatever he was doing wrong, if it did exist, he fixed it twice. If it is real, they very likely have already figured it out.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 15:39:01 GMT -5
Yikes! Cora just said on High Heat that Nate will be "spikes on" and is available tonight to pitch 1 inning out of the pen. If that happens, that would seem to cement a Game 6 start if that game is played. Man, I don't know. Look what that relief appearence in SF took out of Scherzer. I hate the idea of Nate not pitching at full strength if we need a Game 6. He also said he would use Pivetta if he needed to tonight. I don’t know what happens for game 4 if he uses Pivetta tonight. I guess it’s just all a fluid situation.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 15:42:26 GMT -5
Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA) will be making his first appearance this postseason, but has posted a 2.81 ERA in 25.2 innings pitched in the postseason for the Astros in the past. Urquidy has not pitched since his Oct. 3 start against the Oakland Athletics, giving up four hits and three earned runs while striking out three in six innings of work.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2021 16:17:09 GMT -5
Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA) will be making his first appearance this postseason, but has posted a 2.81 ERA in 25.2 innings pitched in the postseason for the Astros in the past. Urquidy has not pitched since his Oct. 3 start against the Oakland Athletics, giving up four hits and three earned runs while striking out three in six innings of work. He's a good pitcher and he's very well rested. Hopefully his command isn't sharp. Because if it is, it could be a tough night for the hitters.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 16:24:16 GMT -5
Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA) will be making his first appearance this postseason, but has posted a 2.81 ERA in 25.2 innings pitched in the postseason for the Astros in the past. Urquidy has not pitched since his Oct. 3 start against the Oakland Athletics, giving up four hits and three earned runs while striking out three in six innings of work. He's a good pitcher and he's very well rested. Hopefully his command isn't sharp. Because if it is, it could be a tough night for the hitters. That’s almost too much rest for a pitcher. I’m surprised he hasn’t had any work at all. He was due to pitch in game 4 of the ALDS against the White Sox, but that was rained out and they opted for McCullers on regular rest instead.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2021 16:24:43 GMT -5
Has anyone pointed this out? Since the start of expanded playoffs, the Sox has never lost a series where the lost game 1 and won game 2. They're 4-0. Three of them ended in 3- or 4-game sweeps.
1986, Angels CS. Won 5 through 7. 2013 Tigers CS. Won 3, 5, and 6. 2018 Astros CS. Won 3 through 5. 2021 Rays DS. Won 3 and 4.
First three were home losses.
In fact, the Sox are 9-0 in the JWH era when they win game 2. Last time they won game 2 but lost a series, they had a manager who was as bad as Cora is good.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2021 16:25:59 GMT -5
He's a good pitcher and he's very well rested. Hopefully his command isn't sharp. Because if it is, it could be a tough night for the hitters. That’s almost too much rest for a pitcher. I’m surprised he hasn’t had any work at all. He was due to pitch in game 4 of the ALDS against the White Sox, but that was rained out and they opted for McCullers on regular rest instead. Yeah, not the best decision as it turned out.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 16:45:17 GMT -5
Siri is a new addition in there. The rest looks the same:
Jose Altuve-2b Michael Brantley-lf Alex Bregman-3b Yordan Alvarez-dh Carlos Correa-ss Kyle Tucker-rf Yuli Gurriel-1b Jose Siri-cf Martin Maldonado-c RHP Jose Urquidy
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 18, 2021 16:56:25 GMT -5
If we win this game I feel like we win the series - The rest of the games line up better for us with the Astros injuries in the pitching department. Hopefully, we can get back into their bullpen again today and really make it hurt for them. Regardless, we're going to have to keep slugging to win because we know the Astros will.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 18, 2021 17:29:42 GMT -5
Sox in 5. Speak it into existence!
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 18, 2021 17:39:52 GMT -5
Regardless, man this has been a magical postseason so far. Really happy with our guys and how they've always seemed to rise from the dead when counted out. Winning culture is what AC brings and I'm excited about this team going forward - only getting better from here!
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Post by soxinsf on Oct 18, 2021 17:39:53 GMT -5
Yikes! Cora just said on High Heat that Nate will be "spikes on" and is available tonight to pitch 1 inning out of the pen. If that happens, that would seem to cement a Game 6 start if that game is played. Man, I don't know. Look what that relief appearence in SF took out of Scherzer. I hate the idea of Nate not pitching at full strength if we need a Game 6. He also said he would use Pivetta if he needed to tonight. I don’t know what happens for game 4 if he uses Pivetta tonight. I guess it’s just all a fluid situation. Not worried about one inning for Nate. If not used, he works game 6 on five days rest. If used, he works game 6 on three days rest after pitching one inning, presumably with a 15-20 pitch limitation, on his normal work day anyhow. What it also means is Sale in game 5. I would rather Eovaldi in game 5 on three days rest, Sale in game 6, Eovaldi available for game 7 if needed.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2021 17:40:12 GMT -5
“You know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. Twenty-five hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, OK? There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one, a gork, a ground ball — a ground ball with eyes! — you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium." The thing is, there is good reason to believe that some hitters have a PA-specific good-karma skill ("karma" being short for wOBA -xwOBA). Certainly we've seen guys intentionally slow their bat speed down in order to hit a ball with a low xBA with a good direction, to a spot where the defense isn't. Alex Verdugo does this against LHP when he's going well.
(This is related to, but must be kept separate from, slowing your bat speed down to hit a tough pitch in the air between the infielders and outfielders. IOW, a distance and hang-time "hit 'em where they ain't" instead of a directional one. Xander excels at this. It does not show up in Statcast as karma, but it does show up as low EV, high xBA.
Of course, this also happens when a guy swings hard and hits the ball just right, which is to say wrong but lucky. It's really easy to see the difference with the eye; we either say "that was a good piece of hitting" or "oh, man, that was pure luck." Bat speed data -- which teams have, I believe, but isn't at Savant -- would discriminate low-EV skill from low-EV luck very clearly.)
The way that xwOBA is derived, you can't come out ahead, with good karma, in the long run, and that's because the best hitters also hit the ball into skillfully positioned defenses.
So the hypothesis here is that in E-Rod's two stretches of bad karma (the second of which turned great pitching into solid), he was doing something that allowed a disproportionate number of hitters to choose to beat the defense rather than to try to hit into it successfully.
We also know that pulled fly balls have good karma, and fly balls hit to CF have bad karma. The pitcher absolutely does contribute to the batted ball direction there. So a second factor that might create an extended stretch of bad karma is doing something that skews fly ball direction.
Whatever he was doing wrong, if it did exist, he fixed it twice. If it is real, they very likely have already figured it out.
Now I do buy this as a possibility, because, again by the eye test, there was a lot of shift-beating going on in that 7-game stretch. But (a) ain't no way beating the shift can explain a 5-run gap between ERA and FIP; it could be at most a partial explanation. And (b) the parsimonious explanation is still just a bad luck stretch. Such a stretch running for 7 games is not too remarkable; by random chance you'd probably expect it to happen a number of times across the league in a given season.
I don't think the late season stretch was even significant or long-lasting enough to merit a special explanation.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 18, 2021 18:01:44 GMT -5
If it's a close game expect to see Sawamura. If it's a blowout, will they go to Whitlock?
No. They need to save everyone for game 4.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2021 18:19:23 GMT -5
The thing is, there is good reason to believe that some hitters have a PA-specific good-karma skill ("karma" being short for wOBA -xwOBA). Certainly we've seen guys intentionally slow their bat speed down in order to hit a ball with a low xBA with a good direction, to a spot where the defense isn't. Alex Verdugo does this against LHP when he's going well.
(This is related to, but must be kept separate from, slowing your bat speed down to hit a tough pitch in the air between the infielders and outfielders. IOW, a distance and hang-time "hit 'em where they ain't" instead of a directional one. Xander excels at this. It does not show up in Statcast as karma, but it does show up as low EV, high xBA.
Of course, this also happens when a guy swings hard and hits the ball just right, which is to say wrong but lucky. It's really easy to see the difference with the eye; we either say "that was a good piece of hitting" or "oh, man, that was pure luck." Bat speed data -- which teams have, I believe, but isn't at Savant -- would discriminate low-EV skill from low-EV luck very clearly.)
The way that xwOBA is derived, you can't come out ahead, with good karma, in the long run, and that's because the best hitters also hit the ball into skillfully positioned defenses.
So the hypothesis here is that in E-Rod's two stretches of bad karma (the second of which turned great pitching into solid), he was doing something that allowed a disproportionate number of hitters to choose to beat the defense rather than to try to hit into it successfully.
We also know that pulled fly balls have good karma, and fly balls hit to CF have bad karma. The pitcher absolutely does contribute to the batted ball direction there. So a second factor that might create an extended stretch of bad karma is doing something that skews fly ball direction.
Whatever he was doing wrong, if it did exist, he fixed it twice. If it is real, they very likely have already figured it out.
Now I do buy this as a possibility, because, again by the eye test, there was a lot of shift-beating going on in that 7-game stretch. But (a) ain't no way beating the shift can explain a 5-run gap between ERA and FIP; it could be at most a partial explanation. And (b) the parsimonious explanation is still just a bad luck stretch. Such a stretch running for 7 games is not too remarkable; by random chance you'd probably expect it to happen a number of times across the league in a given season.
I don't think the late season stretch was even significant or long-lasting enough to merit a special explanation.
I especially do not see how it's either skill by batters or lack of skill by a pitcher to give up 320 foot home runs right down the line. He gave up a few of them in those bad stretches. I mean that's just not any kind of skill at all, unless you're Didi Gregorius in Yankee Stadium because he is the only one I've seen do it consistently. I would definitely say that Vazquez has the soft hit skill, along with Xander earlier in his career when he couldn't hit outside sliders and that was his adjustment.
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