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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 17, 2021 21:43:55 GMT -5
The ultimate analytical debate but which one actually predicts and measures his performance best? I do think the analytical stats are more predictive. I look at it this way. E-Rod was not good this year. Others will say he's simply unlucky. I evaluate him on the actual year he had, the runs he actually gave up because that's the bottom line. Despite his mediocre year he had indicators showing that the 3 true outcomes he can control are in line with his numbers when he had better years or actual results so I can justify using those analytics to judge his future going forward. And I'm just using E-Rod as an example. So I guess it's kind of splitting hairs with the difference simply being the outlook. And in that case, as they say, YMMV. I trust that the FO will spend a lot more time than members on a message board citing FIP/xFIP/etc. trying to figure out exactly why his ERA was out of line, particularly why his strand rate was so low and why his BABIP was so high. How much can they attribute to poor defense, poor alignment? How much can they attribute to bad sequencing of hits, bad pitching in RISP? Is there a flaw in his pitching that led to poor performance with RISP? If they have a reason they I suspect they sign him to an extension. But I sure hope they put in more work than "his FIP is good, let's sign him".
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 17, 2021 21:58:20 GMT -5
I think he'd be a terrible mix in Boston. He let the booing in NY create a situation where he was booing the fans. That kind of attitude won't play in Boston. That aside, I don't think the Sox need another undisciplined hitter in their lineup. I could do without him. Agree. I want to see the RS get back to placing more emphasis on OBP. We saw way too much undisciplined flailing this year, particularly before Schwarber asserted himself. Yeah exactly. Getting Schwarber saved this season. Regardless of how it turns out, he got us to the wild card game and hit a homer vs the Yanks in that game. Then had a pretty good alds too. Knocking out three of our divisional rivals was worth Aldo Ramírez.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 17, 2021 23:18:56 GMT -5
I think he'd be a terrible mix in Boston. He let the booing in NY create a situation where he was booing the fans. That kind of attitude won't play in Boston. Booing NY fans doesn't play in Boston? Is this real life? Dude's a Red Sox legend already!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2021 23:32:29 GMT -5
I think he'd be a terrible mix in Boston. He let the booing in NY create a situation where he was booing the fans. That kind of attitude won't play in Boston. Booing NY fans doesn't play in Boston? Is this real life? Dude's a Red Sox legend already! If he couldn't take the booing in NY, do you really think he'd take alright to booing in Boston if he struggles? Jeez, why not have Philly sign him while you're at it. The dude was too thin skinned to play in NY. It wouldn't be any better in Boston. Besides he's not that good anyways. They don't need another hacker in the lineup.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2021 2:44:38 GMT -5
lmao, if you truly love the Red Sox then you absolutely would, it’s not like he’s a guy that’s committed real crimes I root for the laundry but don't particularly like all the players that wear it. Nomar, Lynn and Clemens are three players that did quite well for the Sox but I never particularly liked any of them. If the Sox signed Correa I would want him to play well for the Sox benefit but otherwise couldn't care less about what he does as an individual. If he did well, I wouldn't like him any more than if he played poorly.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2021 4:30:36 GMT -5
I do think the analytical stats are more predictive. I look at it this way. E-Rod was not good this year. Others will say he's simply unlucky. I evaluate him on the actual year he had, the runs he actually gave up because that's the bottom line. Despite his mediocre year he had indicators showing that the 3 true outcomes he can control are in line with his numbers when he had better years or actual results so I can justify using those analytics to judge his future going forward. And I'm just using E-Rod as an example. So I guess it's kind of splitting hairs with the difference simply being the outlook. And in that case, as they say, YMMV. I trust that the FO will spend a lot more time than members on a message board citing FIP/xFIP/etc. trying to figure out exactly why his ERA was out of line, particularly why his strand rate was so low and why his BABIP was so high. How much can they attribute to poor defense, poor alignment? How much can they attribute to bad sequencing of hits, bad pitching in RISP? Is there a flaw in his pitching that led to poor performance with RISP? If they have a reason they I suspect they sign him to an extension. But I sure hope they put in more work than "his FIP is good, let's sign him". Some E-Rod numbers:
He had very good inherited runner support. His ERA with average support is 4.90.
With the bases empty, he had a .283 xwOBA and .303 wOBA. MLB was .309, .313. Sox as a team were .309, .326, the difference being bad defense and Fenway. So his karma with the bases empty was absolutely normal, just .003 worse than the team as a whole.
With runners on, he had a .298 xwOBA and .371 wOBA. League was .317, .322. Sox were .313, .320.
So the bad strand rate and bad BABIP were one problem.
However, this badness was not distributed equally across the season. xwOBA / wOBA with runners on:
.279 / .310, 4/8 to 5/7 .294 / .445, 5/12 to 6/22 .308 / .313, 6/27 to 9/2 .309 / .434, 9/7 to 10/1
The similarities between chunks 1 and 3, and 2 and 4, warrant lumping the two pairs together to test the hypothesis that he did something wrong with runners on in two discrete stretches.
If you look at the two stretches of normal karma starts as one sample and the two stretches of bad karma starts as another (eliminating three starts with <5 PA with runners on) ... the start-to-start variances are very close (.018. .015). But the means (unweighted by PA in each start) are .010 and .150. And the odds of the bad stretches being that much worse at random are 610 to 1.
... so, you mean work like that? They have 100x the data, easily.
He's had excellent runner-on karma so far in the post-season.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,846
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Post by shagworthy on Oct 18, 2021 7:34:08 GMT -5
more likely he hits a couple of clutch home runs, makes a couple of plays that bogey can’t even dream of making then he immediately becomes endearing Total BS. Nope, it's not. Sorry Phil, my morals aren't compromised by a game or fandom. I'm disappointed but not shocked that yours are. I didn't even want Braiser back on this team, I was glad when karma sent a ball to his racist face. I wince every time I remember Schilling was a part of 04. It concerns me that almost every black star in MLB has a NO BOSTON clause in their contract. You may want to ignore that because you don't care or it isn't relevant to the game thread (which btw is your chicken shit way of hiding from a subject you either don't want to admit to is an issue, or don't want to fix because you support systemic abuse as long as it is in your favor). The point stands, I don't like Correa, I think he's dirty, and I don't want dirty players on my team, even if they could help me win. I hold no romance for Schilling, Manny, hell, even Big Papi is a ? although at least he's not a complete douche bag in real life. I personally would rather have guys I want to root for. Now the argument could be made that we know too much about our players and it makes it hard to like them because they are surprisingly... human, and thus flawed in ways we don't like to admit that our heroes or politicians are, sure, that would be an honest take. I acknowledge that this is WAAY off track from the 2021 gameday thread, but I will not sit here and be attacked by you and then be told "keep it on topic" as a way to shield you. You want to be a jerk, fine, don't respond to my posts and I'll ignore yours but I've had enough of your arrogance.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2021 8:15:23 GMT -5
Has anyone pointed this out? Since the start of expanded playoffs, the Sox has never lost a series where the lost game 1 and won game 2. They're 4-0. Three of them ended in 3- or 4-game sweeps.
1986, Angels CS. Won 5 through 7. 2013 Tigers CS. Won 3, 5, and 6. 2018 Astros CS. Won 3 through 5. 2021 Rays DS. Won 3 and 4.
First three were home losses.
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Post by 07redsox on Oct 18, 2021 8:27:28 GMT -5
Nope, it's not. Sorry Phil, my morals aren't compromised by a game or fandom. I'm disappointed but not shocked that yours are. I didn't even want Braiser back on this team, I was glad when karma sent a ball to his racist face. I wince every time I remember Schilling was a part of 04. It concerns me that almost every black star in MLB has a NO BOSTON clause in their contract. You may want to ignore that because you don't care or it isn't relevant to the game thread (which btw is your chicken shit way of hiding from a subject you either don't want to admit to is an issue, or don't want to fix because you support systemic abuse as long as it is in your favor). The point stands, I don't like Correa, I think he's dirty, and I don't want dirty players on my team, even if they could help me win. I hold no romance for Schilling, Manny, hell, even Big Papi is a ? although at least he's not a complete douche bag in real life. I personally would rather have guys I want to root for. Now the argument could be made that we know too much about our players and it makes it hard to like them because they are surprisingly... human, and thus flawed in ways we don't like to admit that our heroes or politicians are, sure, that would be an honest take. I acknowledge that this is WAAY off track from the 2021 gameday thread, but I will not sit here and be attacked by you and then be told "keep it on topic" as a way to shield you. You want to be a jerk, fine, don't respond to my posts and I'll ignore yours but I've had enough of your arrogance. You both seem to be saying very similar things. Maybe not for the same reasons, but that you root for the team, not necessarily the individual players...
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 18, 2021 9:38:37 GMT -5
So according to Rosenthal, Kiké did make an adjustment which led to this explosion, extend the guy already is all I’m gonna say
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 9:44:51 GMT -5
Devers in the ALDS: .333BA/.400OBP/.667SLG/1.067OPS
Devers in the ALCS: .333BA/.400OBP/.667SLG/1.067OPS
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 18, 2021 9:46:05 GMT -5
lmao, if you truly love the Red Sox then you absolutely would, it’s not like he’s a guy that’s committed real crimes I root for the laundry but don't particularly like all the players that wear it. Nomar, Lynn and Clemens are three players that did quite well for the Sox but I never particularly liked any of them. If the Sox signed Correa I would want him to play well for the Sox benefit but otherwise couldn't care less about what he does as an individual. If he did well, I wouldn't like him any more than if he played poorly. I feel like we’re saying the same thing really, I’m a guy that’s all about the team success also, I don’t fanboy over an individual
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 9:48:03 GMT -5
Kikè Hernández has the most hits(15), extra-base hits(9) and total bases(34) by any player in a five-game span in postseason history.
Not only that, but he has the most total bases for ANY Sox player over a 5 game stretch in Sox history.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 18, 2021 9:55:23 GMT -5
Enrique Hernandez inf-of 2 years/$14M (2021-22)
2 years/$14M (2021-22) signed by Boston as a free agent 1/21 21:$6M, 22:$8M $1.5M of 2021 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2027-32 $1M of 2022 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2033-36
Chaim
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 10:19:29 GMT -5
Enrique Hernandez inf-of 2 years/$14M (2021-22) 2 years/$14M (2021-22) signed by Boston as a free agent 1/21 21:$6M, 22:$8M $1.5M of 2021 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2027-32 $1M of 2022 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2033-36 Chaim I'm guessing Kiké will earn some serious money after this contract ends but 250K a year til 2036 is some pretty decent security.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2021 10:24:51 GMT -5
So according to Rosenthal, Kiké did make an adjustment which led to this explosion, extend the guy already is all I’m gonna say I’m just glad they have him for next season. If he was hitting free agency after this postseason, I wonder what his next contract would look like.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2021 10:59:53 GMT -5
Enrique Hernandez inf-of 2 years/$14M (2021-22) 2 years/$14M (2021-22) signed by Boston as a free agent 1/21 21:$6M, 22:$8M $1.5M of 2021 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2027-32 $1M of 2022 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2033-36 Chaim I'm guessing Kiké will earn some serious money after this contract ends but 250K a year til 2036 is some pretty decent security. Currently trying to talk my employer into giving me this deal. I seem to be getting the Monday morning bemused Zoom stare...
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 18, 2021 11:11:20 GMT -5
Wonder if they start Dalbec tonight. Urquidy has reverse splits and he doesn't throw very hard but does throw strikes. Will be okay with it if they prefer keeping Kiké in center, but interested to see.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 18, 2021 11:12:06 GMT -5
Found myself wondering if the Dodgers don't miss the guy. He brings a bit of energy and some serious hitting chops these days. Hard to imagine the Sox would be where they are without that.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 18, 2021 11:28:40 GMT -5
I trust that the FO will spend a lot more time than members on a message board citing FIP/xFIP/etc. trying to figure out exactly why his ERA was out of line, particularly why his strand rate was so low and why his BABIP was so high. How much can they attribute to poor defense, poor alignment? How much can they attribute to bad sequencing of hits, bad pitching in RISP? Is there a flaw in his pitching that led to poor performance with RISP? If they have a reason they I suspect they sign him to an extension. But I sure hope they put in more work than "his FIP is good, let's sign him". Some E-Rod numbers: He had very good inherited runner support. His ERA with average support is 4.90. With the bases empty, he had a .283 xwOBA and .303 wOBA. MLB was .309, .313. Sox as a team were .309, .326, the difference being bad defense and Fenway. So his karma with the bases empty was absolutely normal, just .003 worse than the team as a whole.
With runners on, he had a .298 xwOBA and .371 wOBA. League was .317, .322. Sox were .313, .320. So the bad strand rate and bad BABIP were one problem.
However, this badness was not distributed equally across the season. xwOBA / wOBA with runners on:
.279 / .310, 4/8 to 5/7 .294 / .445, 5/12 to 6/22 .308 / .313, 6/27 to 9/2 .309 / .434, 9/7 to 10/1
The similarities between chunks 1 and 3, and 2 and 4, warrant lumping the two pairs together to test the hypothesis that he did something wrong with runners on in two discrete stretches.
If you look at the two stretches of normal karma starts as one sample and the two stretches of bad karma starts as another (eliminating three starts with <5 PA with runners on) ... the start-to-start variances are very close (.018. .015). But the means (unweighted by PA in each start) are .010 and .150. And the odds of the bad stretches being that much worse at random are 610 to 1.
... so, you mean work like that? They have 100x the data, easily.
He's had excellent runner-on karma so far in the post-season.
Thanks Eric, and yes work like that. I would then use their vast data and the video analytics to go search for causation - was it poor mechanics, was he susceptible to dead arm due to the lack of a 2020 season, was he tipping pitches, etc. Your assumption of randomness assumes independence, things like similar delivery, arm in the same shape, etc. and I think the team should have enough data to poke and see where those assumptions could have failed. They'll never tell us what they find, but I trust that if they can find something that they should sign him. On a related note - if starters only go 5 innings now, are we overvaluing what they are worth? When we think Erod deserves to get paid, are we still thinking that he's going 6 or 7 innings?
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 11:31:42 GMT -5
I'm guessing Kiké will earn some serious money after this contract ends but 250K a year til 2036 is some pretty decent security. Currently trying to talk my employer into giving me this deal. I seem to be getting the Monday morning bemused Zoom stare... All of us need to play the lottery to come close.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 11:36:11 GMT -5
Some E-Rod numbers: He had very good inherited runner support. His ERA with average support is 4.90. With the bases empty, he had a .283 xwOBA and .303 wOBA. MLB was .309, .313. Sox as a team were .309, .326, the difference being bad defense and Fenway. So his karma with the bases empty was absolutely normal, just .003 worse than the team as a whole.
With runners on, he had a .298 xwOBA and .371 wOBA. League was .317, .322. Sox were .313, .320. So the bad strand rate and bad BABIP were one problem.
However, this badness was not distributed equally across the season. xwOBA / wOBA with runners on:
.279 / .310, 4/8 to 5/7 .294 / .445, 5/12 to 6/22 .308 / .313, 6/27 to 9/2 .309 / .434, 9/7 to 10/1
The similarities between chunks 1 and 3, and 2 and 4, warrant lumping the two pairs together to test the hypothesis that he did something wrong with runners on in two discrete stretches.
If you look at the two stretches of normal karma starts as one sample and the two stretches of bad karma starts as another (eliminating three starts with <5 PA with runners on) ... the start-to-start variances are very close (.018. .015). But the means (unweighted by PA in each start) are .010 and .150. And the odds of the bad stretches being that much worse at random are 610 to 1.
... so, you mean work like that? They have 100x the data, easily.
He's had excellent runner-on karma so far in the post-season.
Thanks Eric, and yes work like that. I would then use their vast data and the video analytics to go search for causation - was it poor mechanics, was he susceptible to dead arm due to the lack of a 2020 season, was he tipping pitches, etc. Your assumption of randomness assumes independence, things like similar delivery, arm in the same shape, etc. and I think the team should have enough data to poke and see where those assumptions could have failed. They'll never tell us what they find, but I trust that if they can find something that they should sign him. On a related note - if starters only go 5 innings now, are we overvaluing what they are worth? When we think Erod deserves to get paid, are we still thinking that he's going 6 or 7 innings? Really good point on valuing starters and I would bet Chaim is all over that. ERods era was over 6 in the 4th and over 7 in the 5th, food for thought on his actual value. I know it is just era and all but that is not good. Maybe he should be a 4 inning guy and get paid like one. Don't take this too seriously but the numbers are real.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2021 11:46:52 GMT -5
I trust that the FO will spend a lot more time than members on a message board citing FIP/xFIP/etc. trying to figure out exactly why his ERA was out of line, particularly why his strand rate was so low and why his BABIP was so high. How much can they attribute to poor defense, poor alignment? How much can they attribute to bad sequencing of hits, bad pitching in RISP? Is there a flaw in his pitching that led to poor performance with RISP? If they have a reason they I suspect they sign him to an extension. But I sure hope they put in more work than "his FIP is good, let's sign him". Some E-Rod numbers:
He had very good inherited runner support. His ERA with average support is 4.90.
With the bases empty, he had a .283 xwOBA and .303 wOBA. MLB was .309, .313. Sox as a team were .309, .326, the difference being bad defense and Fenway. So his karma with the bases empty was absolutely normal, just .003 worse than the team as a whole.
With runners on, he had a .298 xwOBA and .371 wOBA. League was .317, .322. Sox were .313, .320.
So the bad strand rate and bad BABIP were one problem.
However, this badness was not distributed equally across the season. xwOBA / wOBA with runners on:
.279 / .310, 4/8 to 5/7 .294 / .445, 5/12 to 6/22 .308 / .313, 6/27 to 9/2 .309 / .434, 9/7 to 10/1
The similarities between chunks 1 and 3, and 2 and 4, warrant lumping the two pairs together to test the hypothesis that he did something wrong with runners on in two discrete stretches.
If you look at the two stretches of normal karma starts as one sample and the two stretches of bad karma starts as another (eliminating three starts with <5 PA with runners on) ... the start-to-start variances are very close (.018. .015). But the means (unweighted by PA in each start) are .010 and .150. And the odds of the bad stretches being that much worse at random are 610 to 1.
... so, you mean work like that? They have 100x the data, easily.
He's had excellent runner-on karma so far in the post-season.
And to offer my usual contribution to this discourse: the underperformance of his expected stats in that 7-game May-June stretch accounts for almost the entirety of his "poor performance" this season. (During the September stretch he still managed a 3.96 ERA, and while that was worse than his 2.85 FIP it still brought his ERA down, so had to have been fine for anyone who only cares about ERA.)
And I happened to see most of those seven games, and nothing could be more clear than that he was really just having bad luck on grounders and dinky homers. Casual and uninformed fans like Dave O'Brien somehow couldn't see it, but it was perfectly obvious if you saw the games.
Here's my less scientific three chunks of the season (ERA/FIP/xFIP):
4/8-5/7: 3.82/3.68/3.37 5/12-6/15: 8.55/3.59/3.38 6/22-10/3: 3.66/3.09/3.47
There is exactly one outlier in his ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers going back to 2017 and it's his 2021 ERA. And there is exactly one outlier in the three chunks listed above and it's his 5/12-6/15 ERA.
Seven games of bad luck. That's all it is.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 18, 2021 12:13:17 GMT -5
Hopefully Fenway is rocking tonight - give the boys as much of an advantage as possible and pump up E-Rod.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 18, 2021 12:40:01 GMT -5
Wow 3 straight in Boston. I pray the pitching holds up. I’m pretty confident in the offense.
Which ERod do we get tonight? He has a touch of Bucholtz in him. When he is on he is better.
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