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Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 15:43:28 GMT -5
I'd bet that no other big contracts will be signed before the next CBA is announced. And that will likely change how top free agents will be valued. So we're basically debating how much everyone is worth under the old CBA which isn't relevant. But still interesting.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 17, 2021 15:51:14 GMT -5
If that's the case then you'd never sign a premiere free agent because if Raffy stays healthy and viable defensively at 3b, 10 years 340 million is in the neighborhood of what it would take but given that he's reaching free agency at an earlier age it could take 11 or even 12 years at that annual value to retain him. I love Raffy as much as anyone but Nolan Arenado got 9/$275m and he's both a great hitter and a defensive star (8 GGs in 9 years). Raffy is a real risk to move to DH and that's not DH money. Raffy has his moments in the field, both good and bad, and so far hasn't been able to show that he's a lock to stay at 3B for the next 10 years. He should still make a lot of money, though. He's only 24 and should be able to hit for at least 10 more years.
Lindor is a premier defender and before this year was great offensively with good speed. I would think Devers gets a Rendon style contract if I had to take a guess (7/245), yes Devers is great offensive player but he really doesn't add much value on defense.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 17, 2021 15:56:26 GMT -5
more likely he hits a couple of clutch home runs, makes a couple of plays that bogey can’t even dream of making then he immediately becomes endearing Total BS. lmao, if you truly love the Red Sox then you absolutely would, it’s not like he’s a guy that’s committed real crimes
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 17, 2021 15:57:39 GMT -5
I love Raffy as much as anyone but Nolan Arenado got 9/$275m and he's both a great hitter and a defensive star (8 GGs in 9 years). Raffy is a real risk to move to DH and that's not DH money. Raffy has his moments in the field, both good and bad, and so far hasn't been able to show that he's a lock to stay at 3B for the next 10 years. He should still make a lot of money, though. He's only 24 and should be able to hit for at least 10 more years.
Lindor is a premier defender and before this year was great offensively with good speed. I would think Devers gets a Rendon style contract if I had to take a guess (7/245), yes Devers is great offensive player but he really doesn't add much value on defense. I see him as the long term DH, so most I would personally give him is papi money
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Oct 17, 2021 16:02:09 GMT -5
Lindor is a premier defender and before this year was great offensively with good speed. I would think Devers gets a Rendon style contract if I had to take a guess (7/245), yes Devers is great offensive player but he really doesn't add much value on defense. I see him as the long term DH, so most I would personally give him is papi money I even think a Rendon contract is kind of high but would be willing to do it because he's our guy. For a 300+ million dollar deal I'd like to have a more dynamic player who can impact the game with more than his bat. Even if he hit FA I would find it hard to believe that someone would offer him a Lindor style contract, but I guess it only takes one stupid GM.
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Post by vokuhila on Oct 17, 2021 16:18:30 GMT -5
I'd bet that no other big contracts will be signed before the next CBA is announced. And that will likely change how top free agents will be valued. So we're basically debating how much everyone is worth under the old CBA which isn't relevant. But still interesting. Agreed! The new CBA may very well be the reason why Raffy hasn't been extended jet. This off season could become quite hectic if the CBA negotiations take a long time. Just imagine them hitting an impass...no big name signings...only minor moves...
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,142
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Post by jimoh on Oct 17, 2021 17:48:05 GMT -5
If that's the case then you'd never sign a premiere free agent because if Raffy stays healthy and viable defensively at 3b, 10 years 340 million is in the neighborhood of what it would take but given that he's reaching free agency at an earlier age it could take 11 or even 12 years at that annual value to retain him. I’m sure he can/will get that kind of money, but I hope it’s not from the Sox. How many contracts in excess of 7 years ever work out for the signing team? It’s probably not a very long list. We gave Xander a six-year contract. If we had given him a ten-year deal with no opt-outs we'd be sittin' in the catbird seat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2021 18:04:01 GMT -5
But...he just wasn't mediocre... League average stats for starters: 4.30 FIP 4.22 xFIP 4.29 SIERA He was significantly above average! His ERA is just deceiving. I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes. When looking at E-rod's year I would say he was quite mediocre. I mean since when are theoretical runs allowed more important than actual runs allowed? He gave up these real runs which made it harder to win games even if the numbers indicate that he shouldn't have. I mean theoretically the Blue Jays were better than the Sox by a good margin yet in reality which is more important one team is fighting to go to the World Series while the other has been golfing since the regular season ended. That said, when looking to forecast his future to make decisions on what could be expected, that's when I would turn to the theoretical stats, rather than the actual stats, that show he should have been better than his actual results. Obviously offering the QO is a no-brainer. But a contract offer should be based on what is expected in the future and it should be based more upon FIP than ERA. So I look at these stats in 2 different ways and for different purposes. And I would anticipate a lot of disagreement on the outlook of these stats.
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Oct 17, 2021 18:05:48 GMT -5
If I were CB, I'd offer Devers a four or five year contract right now at very good money, and then let him hit the free agent market. He'd still be under 30, and you wouldn't have to worry about paying top dollar for a DH in his declining years.
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Post by patford on Oct 17, 2021 18:25:39 GMT -5
As it turns out José Iglesias is on the Taxi Squad. This allows him to be in the dugout. Not that I want to see it but is there a special Covid rule which would allow him to play if the Sox were decimated by Covid infections?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 18:31:25 GMT -5
I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes. When looking at E-rod's year I would say he was quite mediocre. I mean since when are theoretical runs allowed more important than actual runs allowed? He gave up these real runs which made it harder to win games even if the numbers indicate that he shouldn't have. I mean theoretically the Blue Jays were better than the Sox by a good margin yet in reality which is more important one team is fighting to go to the World Series while the other has been golfing since the regular season ended. That said, when looking to forecast his future to make decisions on what could be expected, that's when I would turn to the theoretical stats, rather than the actual stats, that show he should have been better than his actual results. Obviously offering the QO is a no-brainer. But a contract offer should be based on what is expected in the future and it should be based more upon FIP than ERA. So I look at these stats in 2 different ways and for different purposes. And I would anticipate a lot of disagreement on the outlook of these stats. This is literally the only reason anyone talks about advanced stats. No one is actually arguing that the runs didn't score. It's that the actual results are not predictive.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 18:34:42 GMT -5
If I were CB, I'd offer Devers a four or five year contract right now at very good money, and then let him hit the free agent market. He'd still be under 30, and you wouldn't have to worry about paying top dollar for a DH in his declining years. Well what will happen is that he'll get opt outs to give him exactly that choice. I really doubt his agent is going to just be good with a 4-5 year contract.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 17, 2021 18:53:41 GMT -5
All this talk of FA infielders, I haven't seen any mention of the guy I might most prefer the Sox to sign, Javy Baez. Haven't heard much about his relationship with Cora - unlike Kiké, Correa, and other PR guys - but it could be a draw. I feel like he's somewhat underrated and could come cheaper than the other elite guys. Flawed offensive approach, but legit pop and possibly the best defensive SS in baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 18:58:21 GMT -5
All this talk of FA infielders, I haven't seen any mention of the guy I might most prefer the Sox to sign, Javy Baez. Haven't heard much about his relationship with Cora - unlike Kiké, Correa, and other PR guys - but it could be a draw. I feel like he's somewhat underrated and could come cheaper than the other elite guys. Flawed offensive approach, but legit pop and possibly the best defensive SS in baseball. He'd be great if they needed a SS, but with his complete lack of walking like Pablo Sandoval, almost all of his value is tied up in usually being a mediocre hitter despite the HR and his very good defense. He has a career 103 wRC+. Not paying a premium for that, especially when we don't need him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2021 19:17:03 GMT -5
All this talk of FA infielders, I haven't seen any mention of the guy I might most prefer the Sox to sign, Javy Baez. Haven't heard much about his relationship with Cora - unlike Kiké, Correa, and other PR guys - but it could be a draw. I feel like he's somewhat underrated and could come cheaper than the other elite guys. Flawed offensive approach, but legit pop and possibly the best defensive SS in baseball. I think he'd be a terrible mix in Boston. He let the booing in NY create a situation where he was booing the fans. That kind of attitude won't play in Boston. That aside, I don't think the Sox need another undisciplined hitter in their lineup. I could do without him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 17, 2021 19:20:16 GMT -5
I agree with this. As horrible as his control is his upside is so big it's hard to give up on him in the long term. I could even see him in a spot in the series but he can't start an inning. The spot for him would be if the team desperately needed a strike out and the other options were worse. Say 2nd and 3rd with one out. I don't think the Miller comparision fits that well TBH, because it lacks one critical component: the Marlins He went 6th overall, got a Major League contract by the Tigers, was one of the center pieces in the Miggy trade...then the Marlins happend, he wasn't terrible, but he certainly didn't reach his ceiling...after that the RS put him back on the Major League track. He thrived everywhere but in Florida. Darwinzon's stuff can be absolutely electric, but his walk rate is killing him...and that is not a new developement, he has exactly two season with a bb/9 lower than 5 (!!!) 2015 in rookie ball and 2017 in A ball. I'm with normar: it's going to be a tough decision, you hate to give up on someone with this kind of stuff, but at this point every pitching coach in the RS system has seen him and no one was able to "fix" him. His window is certainly closing fast. If the Red Soxwant to keep Darwinzon, send him back to AAA to see if he can get his BB rate lower. I do not believe pitching sporadically in mop up at the MLB level is the answer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2021 19:21:07 GMT -5
E-Rod will be the Game 3 starter. Cora made it official
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 19:23:40 GMT -5
I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes. When looking at E-rod's year I would say he was quite mediocre. I mean since when are theoretical runs allowed more important than actual runs allowed? He gave up these real runs which made it harder to win games even if the numbers indicate that he shouldn't have. I mean theoretically the Blue Jays were better than the Sox by a good margin yet in reality which is more important one team is fighting to go to the World Series while the other has been golfing since the regular season ended. That said, when looking to forecast his future to make decisions on what could be expected, that's when I would turn to the theoretical stats, rather than the actual stats, that show he should have been better than his actual results. Obviously offering the QO is a no-brainer. But a contract offer should be based on what is expected in the future and it should be based more upon FIP than ERA. So I look at these stats in 2 different ways and for different purposes. And I would anticipate a lot of disagreement on the outlook of these stats. The ultimate analytical debate but which one actually predicts and measures his performance best?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2021 19:32:36 GMT -5
When looking at E-rod's year I would say he was quite mediocre. I mean since when are theoretical runs allowed more important than actual runs allowed? He gave up these real runs which made it harder to win games even if the numbers indicate that he shouldn't have. I mean theoretically the Blue Jays were better than the Sox by a good margin yet in reality which is more important one team is fighting to go to the World Series while the other has been golfing since the regular season ended. That said, when looking to forecast his future to make decisions on what could be expected, that's when I would turn to the theoretical stats, rather than the actual stats, that show he should have been better than his actual results. Obviously offering the QO is a no-brainer. But a contract offer should be based on what is expected in the future and it should be based more upon FIP than ERA. So I look at these stats in 2 different ways and for different purposes. And I would anticipate a lot of disagreement on the outlook of these stats. The ultimate analytical debate but which one actually predicts and measures his performance best? I do think the analytical stats are more predictive. I look at it this way. E-Rod was not good this year. Others will say he's simply unlucky. I evaluate him on the actual year he had, the runs he actually gave up because that's the bottom line. Despite his mediocre year he had indicators showing that the 3 true outcomes he can control are in line with his numbers when he had better years or actual results so I can justify using those analytics to judge his future going forward. And I'm just using E-Rod as an example. So I guess it's kind of splitting hairs with the difference simply being the outlook. And in that case, as they say, YMMV.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,970
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 17, 2021 19:37:14 GMT -5
All this talk of FA infielders, I haven't seen any mention of the guy I might most prefer the Sox to sign, Javy Baez. Haven't heard much about his relationship with Cora - unlike Kiké, Correa, and other PR guys - but it could be a draw. I feel like he's somewhat underrated and could come cheaper than the other elite guys. Flawed offensive approach, but legit pop and possibly the best defensive SS in baseball. I think he'd be a terrible mix in Boston. He let the booing in NY create a situation where he was booing the fans. That kind of attitude won't play in Boston. That aside, I don't think the Sox need another undisciplined hitter in their lineup. I could do without him. Agree. I want to see the RS get back to placing more emphasis on OBP. We saw way too much undisciplined flailing this year, particularly before Schwarber asserted himself.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 17, 2021 19:52:19 GMT -5
Even though he's close with AC, having dealt with Hurricane Maria together in 2017, Correa will sign with HOU. They have a lot of money coming off the books and already have Bregman and Altuve locked up through 2024, which is a pretty sizeable window, considering they've been in the ALCS five years in a row already and have cheap young studs like Alvarez and Tucker already contributing. No reason to think they won't keep him. There will be a lot of Correa to MFYs talk (they need a SS, so obviously they'll get the biggest name on the market, right?) but they simply can't afford him.
If the Yankees WERE to sign a Correa, I don’t see how they would be able to resign Judge after next season given what they are already paying Cole and Stanton. They definitely could if they decide to go over the luxury tax, but current ownership has not shown a willingness to do so. P.S. I like Seager more than Correa. They could be like the Dodgers, see avoidance of the luxury tax as a short-term market inefficiency given a cost-benefit analysis of going over for 2 years and pump their payroll up to $260M.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 17, 2021 20:21:01 GMT -5
If the Yankees WERE to sign a Correa, I don’t see how they would be able to resign Judge after next season given what they are already paying Cole and Stanton. They definitely could if they decide to go over the luxury tax, but current ownership has not shown a willingness to do so. P.S. I like Seager more than Correa. They could be like the Dodgers, see avoidance of the luxury tax as a short-term market inefficiency given a cost-benefit analysis of going over for 2 years and pump their payroll up to $260M. Totally different situations, the Dodgers only have Mookie locked in long term for big money, they have a ton of flexibility. The Yankees already have Cole, Stanton, LeMahieu, and Hicks locked in for at least the next four years. Add Correa and a Judge extension and you'd be looking at ~150m AAV for just those six players. We don't know what the next CBA will look like, so maybe the dynamic changes, but investing that much money in less than 25% of your roster seems like a really dumb long term strategy and it'd be very hard to turn around after a couple years and dip back under the tax.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 17, 2021 21:08:35 GMT -5
Lindor is a premier defender and before this year was great offensively with good speed. I would think Devers gets a Rendon style contract if I had to take a guess (7/245), yes Devers is great offensive player but he really doesn't add much value on defense. I see him as the long term DH, so most I would personally give him is papi money Uh, you do mean Papi money adjusted for contract inflation since Papi's last contract was signed, right?
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 17, 2021 21:33:56 GMT -5
I see him as the long term DH, so most I would personally give him is papi money Uh, you do mean Papi money adjusted for contract inflation since Papi's last contract was signed, right? yes, papi got 16 per iirc? So probably around 25 for Devers
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Post by dirtdog on Oct 17, 2021 21:43:46 GMT -5
I thought Correa has had some back problems? I think he would be a risky sign for anyone. HOF type player if healthy though.
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