SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox vs. Astros 2021 ALCS Gameday Thread
|
Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 13:02:05 GMT -5
If Fangraphs is saying that Erod, and his 4.74ERA over 157 innings, is worth $30m, perhaps we need to use a new system for evaluating a player’s worth. Jesus, not this discussion again...please stop judging pitchers based on ERA...this isn't the 1950ies. All this was discussed in The Rotation in 2022@mods: maybe it's time for an offseason thread? We are going very off topic here Erod’s ERA+ for 2021 was 100. That’s a more modern stat for you. So either the average pitcher in MLB is worth $30m/year or Fangraphs is overvaluing him.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 13:03:36 GMT -5
Maybe the idea with Correa is they sign him, keep both for a year and let Xander walk. As tough as that would be to see happen given all Xander has done for this franchise it could make baseball sense if Correa projects to stick at short longer. He is also younger. The Sox aren’t signing Correa. I’m not sure where this notion came from. Now Semien?? That could be a more interesting target for them.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 13:13:34 GMT -5
Jesus, not this discussion again...please stop judging pitchers based on ERA...this isn't the 1950ies. All this was discussed in The Rotation in 2022@mods: maybe it's time for an offseason thread? We are going very off topic here Erod’s ERA+ for 2021 was 100. That’s a more modern stat for you. So either the average pitcher in MLB is worth $30m/year or Fangraphs is overvaluing him. Haha, it's just another way of saying ERA.
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Oct 17, 2021 13:23:21 GMT -5
Erod’s ERA+ for 2021 was 100. That’s a more modern stat for you. So either the average pitcher in MLB is worth $30m/year or Fangraphs is overvaluing him. Haha, it's just another way of saying ERA. ERA+ is based on...ERA. fWAR is based on FIP. ERod's "more modern stats": 3.32 FIP 3.43 xFIP 3.64 SIERA 3.55 xERA vs 4.74 ERA You can make a decent case that ERod would have given you ~150IP @ mid 3 ERA, had his luck been "average". I think we can agree that, based on this, there will be a decent amount of intrest in him. QO is an absolute no brainer.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 13:29:49 GMT -5
Haha, it's just another way of saying ERA. ERA+ is based on...ERA. fWAR is based on FIP. ERod's "more modern stats": 3.32 FIP 3.43 xFIP 3.64 SIERA 3.55 xERA vs 4.74 ERA You can make a decent case that ERod would have given you ~150IP @ mid 3 ERA, had his luck been "average". I think we can agree that, based on this, there will be a decent amount of intrest in him. QO is an absolute no brainer. I’m not disputing the QO. I never did. You should definitely offer that to him. My argument is that his 2021 performance was worth $30M when he was mediocre, at best, this season.
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Oct 17, 2021 13:37:27 GMT -5
ERA+ is based on...ERA. fWAR is based on FIP. ERod's "more modern stats": 3.32 FIP 3.43 xFIP 3.64 SIERA 3.55 xERA vs 4.74 ERA You can make a decent case that ERod would have given you ~150IP @ mid 3 ERA, had his luck been "average". I think we can agree that, based on this, there will be a decent amount of intrest in him. QO is an absolute no brainer. I’m not disputing the QO. I never did. You should definitely offer that to him. My argument is that his 2021 performance was worth $30M when he was mediocre, at best, this season. But...he just wasn't mediocre... League average stats for starters: 4.30 FIP 4.22 xFIP 4.29 SIERA He was significantly above average! His ERA is just deceiving.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Oct 17, 2021 14:06:35 GMT -5
If this is true then are you implying Devers is gone when he reaches FA? Lindor got 10yr/$341m from the Mets. If THAT is what it takes to sign Devers, I wish him well. I don’t want anything to do with a contract that long. I don’t think I would go more than 7 years for ANY player, honestly. I'd do 10/300 for Devers. Not to rehash the Mookie stuff but if he was willing to stay here for that Lindor contract we'd all be pumped.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 14:17:38 GMT -5
Lindor got 10yr/$341m from the Mets. If THAT is what it takes to sign Devers, I wish him well. I don’t want anything to do with a contract that long. I don’t think I would go more than 7 years for ANY player, honestly. I'd do 10/300 for Devers. Not to rehash the Mookie stuff but if he was willing to stay here for that Lindor contract we'd all be pumped. Not me. Mookie is ALREADY falling apart. I can’t imagine what that deal will look like in another 10 years. And I love Mookie, too. He’s probably my favorite player they’ve developed since Nomar. The Sox can just do a lot more with that $30m every year, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 14:21:34 GMT -5
I’m not disputing the QO. I never did. You should definitely offer that to him. My argument is that his 2021 performance was worth $30M when he was mediocre, at best, this season. But...he just wasn't mediocre... League average stats for starters: 4.30 FIP 4.22 xFIP 4.29 SIERA He was significantly above average! His ERA is just deceiving. I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 14:25:31 GMT -5
Feels like our roster is two short - only time that Sawamura or Hernandez can be on the mound would be a blowout either way. Phantom injury, anyone? Davis and Barnes are the two options, but they are marginally better options. I wasn't online when Garcia begged out and Dusty claimed it was an injury but I imagine this board was lighting up like my idiot neighbors' Halloween decorations.
It's complete bs because not only did it allow Odorizzi to ice Nate for 20+ minutes but now HOU will be able to swap an obviously spooked Garcia for... anyone with a pulse.
There should be a rule that if one team claims an injury to swap out a player, the opposing team also has the option to swap someone out (paging Sawamura-san...).
First, there should be a limit to warming up. 20 minutes is not reasonable in the middle of a game. Bring in a relief pitcher who is used to warming up in 5-8 minutes. Second, a pitcher removed for injury in the playoffs should have to be replaced on the roster.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 14:30:02 GMT -5
But...he just wasn't mediocre... League average stats for starters: 4.30 FIP 4.22 xFIP 4.29 SIERA He was significantly above average! His ERA is just deceiving. I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes. But here are his BABIPs by year:
2015: .289
2016: .278
2017: .299
2018: .301
2019: .317
2021: .363
This year is a huge outlier. His career BABIP is .311, but not counting this year it's .299. Totally average. So these stats just add further evidence that he was uniquely unlucky this season.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 14:34:06 GMT -5
Unless they are predicated on acquiring someone like Matz or Thor, I would QO Erod, as well. With the CBA in limbo, who knows what will happen with Free Agents? And, at least by Fangraphs, ERod was worth $30M in this, one of his worst years. Bloom's all about value and that seems like value if they think his arm is sound. If Fangraphs is saying that Erod, and his 4.74ERA over 157 innings, is worth $30m, perhaps we need to use a new system for evaluating a player’s worth. This is the same logic that had the Red Sox let Wade Boggs leave after he hit .259 in his last Red Sox season. Who wants to sign a .259 hitter? (who just had a BABIP about 80 points less than his career average)
|
|
|
Post by aznpopsical on Oct 17, 2021 14:36:39 GMT -5
Correa is the better defender and has a great bat but he can't stay on the field. If you are going to break the bank for a player I would put a lot of weight on LT health. None of his injuries really lead me to think they will crop up again but it is a question. I want nothing to do with Carlos Correa, dude is a prick, he's Manny Machado v2. I like to be able to root for my team's players and if we were to sign Correa I could never root for him, I'd just be hoping everyone in the majors plunked him every at bat until he retired. Let Houston keep him. more likely he hits a couple of clutch home runs, makes a couple of plays that bogey can’t even dream of making then he immediately becomes endearing
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 14:36:55 GMT -5
I'd do 10/300 for Devers. Not to rehash the Mookie stuff but if he was willing to stay here for that Lindor contract we'd all be pumped. Not me. Mookie is ALREADY falling apart. I can’t imagine what that deal will look like in another 10 years. And I love Mookie, too. He’s probably my favorite player they’ve developed since Nomar. The Sox can just do a lot more with that $30m every year, IMO. Although I agree with you on the idea of paying an imperfect player 30m a year I think we have to get used to the idea that it will become the new normal as time goes on. With the new CBA I expect higher caps and inflation is what it is. Heck with all the young superstars someone will be breaking 40 soon enough. It may not be the best way to manage a winning team but it is challenging to win a WS with out star power. The Dodgers got over that hump with Mookie, the great farm system wasn't enough. Just like Tampa Bay.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 14:38:20 GMT -5
Just watched the replay of Luis Garcia's last pitch several times and there's no way you can convince me it wasn't a phony injury. The report was "right knee discomfort" and he did not in any way favor his right leg or any other part of his body after that pitch. He threw his hands up after the 4-pitch walk as if to say "I got nothing here, I have no idea where it's going." He did not look to the dugout or indicate that he was injured. He clearly didn't tell anyone in the dugout between the first and second innings that he was hurt because they would've at least started someone warming in the bullpen. The trainer and manager didn't come out until after Garcia was already talking to Maldonado and Correa for almost a minute. Then in the mound conversation he was clearly doing a lot more listening than talking. They didn't even have him try a practice pitch. It was pretty much the opposite of what you often see -- the manager and trainer leaping out of the dugout immediately after a pitch before anyone else in the stadium knows what's going on because they saw something bad in the delivery. Baker had no one warming up -- which was surprising in itself because Garcia already looked bad in the first inning -- so faking an injury to give someone as much time as they needed was exactly what the doctor ordered. Once that's the play, why not bring in a guy who needs literally 20 minutes to warm up to slow the Sox momentum and also make Eovaldi wait through an artificial rain delay? Obviously, it didn't stop the Sox from rolling but now the Astros have cover to replace Garcia on the roster if that's what they decide to do -- it's completely up to them, now that the fake injury ploy worked. At the very least, there should be a rule in the playoffs that if a team replaces a guy due to injury, the other team has the option of replacing someone at their discretion. That might curtail some of this chicanery. Everything you're describing here is completely consistent with the reporting: Garcia was having an issue he hadn't shared with coaches; it was the catcher who noticed something was off. You don't need a special explanation for why Baker didn't have someone warming up at the start of the second inning. Spending 15 minutes to "slow the Sox' momentum" is just a weird idea; and if the grand payoff of all this was to make Eovaldi rest a bit longer in the dugout, it is an awfully elaborate ruse for a pretty speculative and minimal benefit.
And if that was the ploy, it was incredibly stupid! Odorizzi did not look thrilled about having to come into the game, then he warmed up awkwardly on the field with all eyes on him, then he sucked hard in that inning and gave up a grand slam. You could argue it was the big mistake of the game: why didn't Baker just bring in a regular reliever who could get ready quickly to finish the 2nd, then have Odorizzi to start the third in a more familiar situation?
Meanwhile, as the mlb article I linked to above points out, if the Astros remove Garcia from the roster for the ALCS, he's out for the World Series too. There is absolutely no way in hell that's an outcome they want, as thin as their pitching is, just so they can add Peter Solomon to the roster.
When Garcia starts game 4, will you revisit this?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 14:42:50 GMT -5
There is no way in hell that the Red Sox become serious contenders in a bidding war for a top free agent they don't desperately need under Bloom. Nor should they.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 14:56:54 GMT -5
Everything you're describing here is completely consistent with the reporting: Garcia was having an issue he hadn't shared with coaches; it was the catcher who noticed something was off. You don't need a special explanation for why Baker didn't have someone warming up at the start of the second inning. Spending 15 minutes to "slow the Sox' momentum" is just a weird idea; and if the grand payoff of all this was to make Eovaldi rest a bit longer in the dugout, it is an awfully elaborate ruse for a pretty speculative and minimal benefit.
And if that was the ploy, it was incredibly stupid! Odorizzi did not look thrilled about having to come into the game, then he warmed up awkwardly on the field with all eyes on him, then he sucked hard in that inning and gave up a grand slam. You could argue it was the big mistake of the game: why didn't Baker just bring in a regular reliever who could get ready quickly to finish the 2nd, then have Odorizzi to start the third in a more familiar situation?
Meanwhile, as the mlb article I linked to above points out, if the Astros remove Garcia from the roster for the ALCS, he's out for the World Series too. There is absolutely no way in hell that's an outcome they want, as thin as their pitching is, just so they can add Peter Solomon to the roster.
When Garcia starts game 4, will you revisit this? If Garcia starts game 4, will I reconsider Underwater Johnson's theory that this was all an elaborate ruse to allow Houston to remove Garcia from the LCS roster? No, I will not.
By the way, Dusty Baker has already (predictably) said that he will remain on the roster.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Oct 17, 2021 15:02:00 GMT -5
Not me. Mookie is ALREADY falling apart. I can’t imagine what that deal will look like in another 10 years. And I love Mookie, too. He’s probably my favorite player they’ve developed since Nomar. The Sox can just do a lot more with that $30m every year, IMO. Although I agree with you on the idea of paying an imperfect player 30m a year I think we have to get used to the idea that it will become the new normal as time goes on. With the new CBA I expect higher caps and inflation is what it is. Heck with all the young superstars someone will be breaking 40 soon enough. It may not be the best way to manage a winning team but it is challenging to win a WS with out star power. The Dodgers got over that hump with Mookie, the great farm system wasn't enough. Just like Tampa Bay. I think this is probably right when it comes to the likes of Soto, Acuna and Vlad Jr. I can’t imagine what those FA deals will look like. I just don’t like the idea of giving 20+% of your payroll to one guy. And there’s a limit on how many of those deals can be given out across the sport, too. I suppose the Sox will HAVE to do deals like that, but it just scares me given the observable history of long-term contracts in MLB. I’m not sure Devers is the guy I want to give 10+ years to. If they can lock him up for 7 years? I’d be open to that. I’d definitely like to keep him around long-term if the money is right.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 15:12:38 GMT -5
Devers is not a part of the elite that deserve $300M contracts yet. He still could be and I kind of expect it, but I think they could get him for 8/$250 with buying his last arb years out, especially given that he'd be getting more on those first 3 arb years.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2021 15:14:16 GMT -5
When Garcia starts game 4, will you revisit this? If Garcia starts game 4, will I reconsider Underwater Johnson's theory that this was all an elaborate ruse to allow Houston to remove Garcia from the LCS roster? No, I will not.
By the way, Dusty Baker has already (predictably) said that he will remain on the roster.
I don't think anything about them removing Garcia from the roster. They could have just said he was injured after the game and let Odorizzi start the 2nd inning. It was more about icing Eovaldi for an absolutely absurd amount of time and trying to get to the Sox bullpen when the game was already a disaster for them.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2021 15:14:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 15:27:28 GMT -5
If Garcia starts game 4, will I reconsider Underwater Johnson's theory that this was all an elaborate ruse to allow Houston to remove Garcia from the LCS roster? No, I will not.
By the way, Dusty Baker has already (predictably) said that he will remain on the roster.
I don't think anything about them removing Garcia from the roster. They could have just said he was injured after the game and let Odorizzi start the 2nd inning. It was more about icing Eovaldi for an absolutely absurd amount of time and trying to get to the Sox bullpen when the game was already a disaster for them. Then as I said above, it was a ridiculously stupid scheme that backfired horribly.
It's the usual problem with dumb conspiracy theories: Dusty Baker had to be so clever as to orchestrate this elaborate deception for a hypothetical and marginal advantage, and be so ruthlessly committed as to lie to the whole world about it while also getting his own player's acquiescence on the fly, but also too dumb to realize he was screwing over his own team by bringing in Odorizzi instead of a short-stint reliever in that situation.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2021 15:30:53 GMT -5
Devers is not a part of the elite that deserve $300M contracts yet. He still could be and I kind of expect it, but I think they could get him for 8/$250 with buying his last arb years out, especially given that he'd be getting more on those first 3 arb years. This sounds about right to me. It would be a discount, but Devers would get the certainty of a quarter of a billion dollars in future earnings when he is still a few years from free agency. I would like this deal for both sides.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2021 15:34:18 GMT -5
I want nothing to do with Carlos Correa, dude is a prick, he's Manny Machado v2. I like to be able to root for my team's players and if we were to sign Correa I could never root for him, I'd just be hoping everyone in the majors plunked him every at bat until he retired. Let Houston keep him. more likely he hits a couple of clutch home runs, makes a couple of plays that bogey can’t even dream of making then he immediately becomes endearing Total BS.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 15:39:04 GMT -5
2 things on paying Raffy his defense and his age. He will be getting the big deal at a younger age than most so 10 years is not as scary. But will he end up being a DH or a liability in the field.
In my perfect world both he and Xander sign for 25m av.
|
|
|