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2021-2022 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 30, 2021 19:47:36 GMT -5
That's the problem with the Ray's. The get better by adding Kluber and then shed salary by trading away a good player like Wendle. That strategy doesn't work if you're serious about a title. They won't win anything until they move out of that park and probably out of that city. He's basically a 31-year-old utility infielder who figures to make $4 million and they are loaded with young infield talent (some of which they just invested $180 million in). Why should they keep him? Might as well use him to drop another ping pong ball into the prospect lottery. I mean, they do have 2 All star quality pieces in Lowe and Franco playing up the middle in 2B and SS. However, Diaz and his .740 OPS is now your full time 3B and the Ray's just lost their left handed cheap complimentary player to go along with him. That doesn't sound like getting better.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 30, 2021 20:26:44 GMT -5
He's basically a 31-year-old utility infielder who figures to make $4 million and they are loaded with young infield talent (some of which they just invested $180 million in). Why should they keep him? Might as well use him to drop another ping pong ball into the prospect lottery. I mean, they do have 2 All star quality pieces in Lowe and Franco playing up the middle in 2B and SS. However, Diaz and his .740 OPS is now your full time 3B and the Ray's just lost their left handed cheap complimentary player to go along with him. That doesn't sound like getting better. And Wendle had a .741 OPS, so touche. (For next season, Wendle projects for a .696 OPS and Diaz for .793, per steamer.)
But also I think you're forgetting about Taylor Walls, a 50 FV prospect who was worth 0.5 fWAR in a third of a season and figures to be about as good as Wendle next year, but cheaper and with a lot more upside.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 30, 2021 21:55:50 GMT -5
I mean, they do have 2 All star quality pieces in Lowe and Franco playing up the middle in 2B and SS. However, Diaz and his .740 OPS is now your full time 3B and the Ray's just lost their left handed cheap complimentary player to go along with him. That doesn't sound like getting better. And Wendle had a .741 OPS, so touche. (For next season, Wendle projects for a .696 OPS and Diaz for .793, per steamer.)
But also I think you're forgetting about Taylor Walls, a 50 FV prospect who was worth 0.5 fWAR in a third of a season and figures to be about as good as Wendle next year, but cheaper and with a lot more upside.
Wendle had a .790 OPS versus RHP last year and was worth 2.6 fWAR. It does sound very Ray's like to go with Walls fulltime, with Diaz maybe splitting time. If you're a regular contending team, this isn't the move you're looking to make (especially for 21rst best prospect). Wendle is extremely valuable and versatile. He's worth 3 times his salary based on his 2021 season alone.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 30, 2021 23:47:52 GMT -5
The Angels are resigning closer Raisel Iglesias.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Dec 1, 2021 7:48:19 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2021 9:19:33 GMT -5
The state tax issue is often dismissed on this board, but this piece shows it was a real issue for Corey Seagar, and may likely be for other players considering moves. Like a $76 million issue. Or, in other words, Boston, we may have a tax problem when it comes to luring free agents in the future. Guys want to win, sure, but $76 million is, well, $76 million. Sure, if a team is crap (or exceedingly cheap - hello Tampa) and a guy wants to win, then the tax in MA, NY, LA, SF etc becomes a cost of doing business. But if a team is competitive (Astros, Rangers - apparently) and in a tax free state, that is a big-ass carrot to wave on an identical salary. Pray a smart owner willing to spend up to the Luxury tax or over never buys the Rays and either keeps them in FL or moves them to Nashville or San Antonio, because this will continue to be a significant advantage for any competitive team seeing free agent talent or pursuing extensions. That, or contact your Taxachusetts state representatives and demand the state income tax be dropped forevah (ha-ha, double-ha. Good luck with that.) sports.yahoo.com/76-million-divide-corey-seager-224724623.html
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 1, 2021 9:32:26 GMT -5
I have no idea where this guy is getting $76 million from. He says California is 13% and Texas is 0%, but that only matters for home games.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2021 10:07:36 GMT -5
N.B. Here are the top six MLB payrolls from 2021, per Spotrac: LAD - $271.2m MFY - $205.7m NYM - $201.2m HOU - $194.4m PHI - $189.9m BOS - $189.5m The LAD payroll was $65.5m more than the 2nd highest, MFY. The MFYs payroll was $64.7m more than the 15th highest, CHW. Do I want BOS to be more like LAD? Hell, yeah! When the tax man's away, the Dodgers will pay! That was a one-year aberration though - the Dodgers aren't there every year, and they went up to it knowing they had a TON of money coming off in 2022. The last time they went over $205M, per Cot's, was 2017. (And FYI, Cot's only had them at $262M last year. Point stands regardless but for whatever that's worth.) They opened the year around $247M knowing that between Kershaw, Jansen, Seager, C. Taylor, and Knebel, they had $77.8M coming off the books, most of which would be replaced from within. Then they dealt for Scherzer and T. Turner knowing Scherzer was only a short-term investment. They didn't even give a qualifying offer to Kershaw (Jansen was ineligible). If they really were 100% damn the torpedoes on payroll, wouldn't you do that and risk him accepting in order to get the pick? Some of that savings will be spent on Trea Turner, who himself is only a one-year investment, and on an arb raise for Bellinger. But after signing Hudson to replace Knebel (my guess is Treinen closes) and Heaney for the rotation, I'm not sure they're going to add much to a payroll that Cot's projects at about $214M for this year. Probably depends what's out there after the lockout. As of right now, they're only third in the league in projected payroll behind the Matz's-agent-put-Steve-Cohen-on-tilt Mets and the Yankees. If we're talking about one-year spikes in payroll to push in for a World Series, the 2018 Red Sox kind of wrote the book on that.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 12:42:06 GMT -5
The state tax issue is often dismissed on this board, but this piece shows it was a real issue for Corey Seagar, and may likely be for other players considering moves. Like a $76 million issue. Or, in other words, Boston, we may have a tax problem when it comes to luring free agents in the future. Guys want to win, sure, but $76 million is, well, $76 million. Sure, if a team is crap (or exceedingly cheap - hello Tampa) and a guy wants to win, then the tax in MA, NY, LA, SF etc becomes a cost of doing business. But if a team is competitive (Astros, Rangers - apparently) and in a tax free state, that is a big-ass carrot to wave on an identical salary. Pray a smart owner willing to spend up to the Luxury tax or over never buys the Rays and either keeps them in FL or moves them to Nashville or San Antonio, because this will continue to be a significant advantage for any competitive team seeing free agent talent or pursuing extensions. That, or contact your Taxachusetts state representatives and demand the state income tax be dropped forevah (ha-ha, double-ha. Good luck with that.) sports.yahoo.com/76-million-divide-corey-seager-224724623.htmlI guess that's why the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers never seem to sign any big-time free agents.
ADD: Based on this map, Massachusetts doesn't even have an especially high state income tax?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 1, 2021 12:45:58 GMT -5
The state tax issue is often dismissed on this board, but this piece shows it was a real issue for Corey Seagar, and may likely be for other players considering moves. Like a $76 million issue. Or, in other words, Boston, we may have a tax problem when it comes to luring free agents in the future. Guys want to win, sure, but $76 million is, well, $76 million. Sure, if a team is crap (or exceedingly cheap - hello Tampa) and a guy wants to win, then the tax in MA, NY, LA, SF etc becomes a cost of doing business. But if a team is competitive (Astros, Rangers - apparently) and in a tax free state, that is a big-ass carrot to wave on an identical salary. Pray a smart owner willing to spend up to the Luxury tax or over never buys the Rays and either keeps them in FL or moves them to Nashville or San Antonio, because this will continue to be a significant advantage for any competitive team seeing free agent talent or pursuing extensions. That, or contact your Taxachusetts state representatives and demand the state income tax be dropped forevah (ha-ha, double-ha. Good luck with that.) sports.yahoo.com/76-million-divide-corey-seager-224724623.htmlIt does not, in fact, show that. They don't interview anyone involved in the process, they just go on 10 paragraphs or so of speculation. And people keep dismissing it because teams in those supposed high-tax states keep having no issues signing players.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 1, 2021 16:26:13 GMT -5
Another closer option just came off the board - to the Diamondbacks no less!
Mark Melancon signed a 2 year deal with 14 million guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 1, 2021 16:28:17 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Dec 1, 2021 16:29:41 GMT -5
Another closer option just came off the board - to the Diamondbacks no less! Mark Melancon signed a 2 year deal with 14 million guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means. Was that an option? Didn’t we get enough of that before?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2021 16:32:52 GMT -5
Man, that is not a guy I'd give up a second round draft pick for.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 16:36:32 GMT -5
Another closer option just came off the board - to the Diamondbacks no less! Mark Melancon signed a 2 year deal with 14 million guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means. This reminds me that we had that guy for one season and it was the single worst year of his 13-year career, and we traded Jed Lowrie to get him.
Flipped him for Brock Holt though! So not a total loss. But both transactions go to show: never trade for relievers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 1, 2021 17:09:07 GMT -5
Another closer option just came off the board - to the Diamondbacks no less! Mark Melancon signed a 2 year deal with 14 million guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means. This reminds me that we had that guy for one season and it was the single worst year of his 13-year career, and we traded Jed Lowrie to get him. Flipped him for Brock Holt though! So not a total loss. But both transactions go to show: never trade for relievers.
To be fair, there couldn't be a worse manager for Melancon to play for. He has been a good reliever but had his worst season pitching for Melancon. He got off to a bad start and then got buried by Valentine. I suspect had it been any other manager, he would have dug out from his bad start and I think he would have pitched well. I won't complain about the results of what happened after, in that they got Brock Holt for him. Holt was useful but then again so was Melancon, but if they did have Melancon perhaps we never find out what relief pitching perfection looks like - I'm thankful the closer situation was messed up by midseason 2013. It resulted in Koji time and a championship and my favorite Red Sox closer to watch (the quick relaxing anxiety eliminating way he pitched made him a total favorite of mine. (I've only enjoyed Pedro and Clemens more).
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Post by idratherbeattheplate on Dec 1, 2021 17:17:48 GMT -5
I agree I'd rather see Chaim spend some money on an inning eater or a big name guy not name James Paxton; however if Trevor Story is willing to make a position change isn't he the most ideal acquisition for a position player, even at the beginning of free agency
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 1, 2021 18:37:35 GMT -5
Apparently the Cubs are in serious talks with Stroman. Doubt the Sox were serious players for him.
I suspect he signs tonight and all significant options are off the board with Hill and Rodon being the best of what's left over.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Dec 1, 2021 19:15:19 GMT -5
I agree I'd rather see Chaim spend some money on an inning eater or a big name guy not name James Paxton; however if Trevor Story is willing to make a position change isn't he the most ideal acquisition for a position player, even at the beginning of free agency He’s a better SS than Xander is, I don’t see why he would be the one switching positions
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,121
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Post by jimoh on Dec 1, 2021 19:16:08 GMT -5
Apparently the Cubs are in serious talks with Stroman. Doubt the Sox were serious players for him. I suspect he signs tonight and all significant options are off the board with Hill and Rodon being the best of what's left over. Jon Heyman @jonheyman · 21m Stroman is a Cub. 1st @str0 Marcus Stroman @str0 · 18m Chicago has always been one of my favorite cities. Culture and passion everywhere. Beyond excited to pitch in front one of the best fan bases in all of sports. Thank you to everyone in the city for the warm welcome. I can feel it. Let’s get to work! @cubs
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 1, 2021 20:17:11 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2021 23:19:58 GMT -5
Huh, guess he didn't get the memo that all second-tier pitchers (Rodriguez, Ray, Gausman) are supposed to get 5-year deals.
Also... why, for the Cubs? Unlike Rodriguez' contract, this is a front-loaded opt-out clause, so there really is the risk that Stroman could be good enough to opt out without providing them any excess value. And does anyone think the Cubs will be any good in the next two seasons?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 23:25:52 GMT -5
Man, that is not a guy I'd give up a second round draft pick for. Amen, brother.
EDIT: This appears to be a case where offering a guy a QO dries up his market elsewhere, because no one wants to give up a 2nd-rounder for a super-utility guy, and gives his former team all the leverage in the world to bring him back at a below-market rate. Good for them. He's way too free a swinger for me, especially for a guy with 45 power.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 1, 2021 23:53:37 GMT -5
N.B. Here are the top six MLB payrolls from 2021, per Spotrac: LAD - $271.2m MFY - $205.7m NYM - $201.2m HOU - $194.4m PHI - $189.9m BOS - $189.5m The LAD payroll was $65.5m more than the 2nd highest, MFY. The MFYs payroll was $64.7m more than the 15th highest, CHW. Do I want BOS to be more like LAD? Hell, yeah! When the tax man's away, the Dodgers will pay! That was a one-year aberration though - the Dodgers aren't there every year, and they went up to it knowing they had a TON of money coming off in 2022. The last time they went over $205M, per Cot's, was 2017. (And FYI, Cot's only had them at $262M last year. Point stands regardless but for whatever that's worth.) They opened the year around $247M knowing that between Kershaw, Jansen, Seager, C. Taylor, and Knebel, they had $77.8M coming off the books, most of which would be replaced from within. Then they dealt for Scherzer and T. Turner knowing Scherzer was only a short-term investment. They didn't even give a qualifying offer to Kershaw (Jansen was ineligible). If they really were 100% damn the torpedoes on payroll, wouldn't you do that and risk him accepting in order to get the pick? Some of that savings will be spent on Trea Turner, who himself is only a one-year investment, and on an arb raise for Bellinger. But after signing Hudson to replace Knebel (my guess is Treinen closes) and Heaney for the rotation, I'm not sure they're going to add much to a payroll that Cot's projects at about $214M for this year. Probably depends what's out there after the lockout. As of right now, they're only third in the league in projected payroll behind the Matz's-agent-put-Steve-Cohen-on-tilt Mets and the Yankees. If we're talking about one-year spikes in payroll to push in for a World Series, the 2018 Red Sox kind of wrote the book on that. Good points all and I'm not just saying that because it is also pretty much my point: Spend like a madman when you can (when the only penalty is spending more money on tax)! That's exactly what I'd like to see this FO do, at least for legit studs like Scherzer on short-term, high-AAV deals (or Verlander or to a lesser extent Starling Marte -- I also wouldn't mind Jansen on a one-year finger-crosser).
I thought bringing Chaim in would mean smart TB-style moves around the fringes PLUS a big-ass payroll to spend on legit stars -- just like the Dodgers! So far though, I'm still only seeing the TB stuff.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 14:11:32 GMT -5
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