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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2021 11:47:16 GMT -5
My worry is he wanted him back, yet acts like that contract is too much. That worries me coming from Tampa and given what Ben did when he was in a very similar situation. There was certainly a level I walk away from, yet it wasn't close to what he got.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 19, 2021 11:56:54 GMT -5
My worry is he wanted him back, yet acts like that contract is too much. That worries me coming from Tampa and given what Ben did when he was in a very similar situation. There was certainly a level I walk away from, yet it wasn't close to what he got. If the concern is that Bloom will act like the GM of a small market team and just not spend money on principle, I really don't think we need to worry about that - presumably he'll spend at least close to the CBT limit on something.
I'm with you in thinking that signing Eduardo at 5/80 or so would have been a good use of resources; if I were the GM I wouldn't even have hesitated at that price. But there's no way to judge the overall spending approach until we see what he does spend on.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2021 12:53:19 GMT -5
My worry is he wanted him back, yet acts like that contract is too much. That worries me coming from Tampa and given what Ben did when he was in a very similar situation. There was certainly a level I walk away from, yet it wasn't close to what he got. If the concern is that Bloom will act like the GM of a small market team and just not spend money on principle, I really don't think we need to worry about that - presumably he'll spend at least close to the CBT limit on something.
I'm with you in thinking that signing Eduardo at 5/80 or so would have been a good use of resources; if I were the GM I wouldn't even have hesitated at that price. But there's no way to judge the overall spending approach until we see what he does spend on.
It’s not 5/80, it’s 2/39 (reportedly), then if he isn’t very good then it’s 3/37. If he lives up to it, then he’s opting out. Perhaps Bloom didn’t love the player enough to take on that type of risk. There’s not much excess value upside for the team here.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 19, 2021 13:55:04 GMT -5
If the concern is that Bloom will act like the GM of a small market team and just not spend money on principle, I really don't think we need to worry about that - presumably he'll spend at least close to the CBT limit on something.
I'm with you in thinking that signing Eduardo at 5/80 or so would have been a good use of resources; if I were the GM I wouldn't even have hesitated at that price. But there's no way to judge the overall spending approach until we see what he does spend on.
It’s not 5/80, it’s 2/39 (reportedly), then if he isn’t very good then it’s 3/37. If he lives up to it, then he’s opting out. Perhaps Bloom didn’t love the player enough to take on that type of risk. There’s not much excess value upside for the team here. I thought it was 2/28 then 3/49? I gave my take on that contract above. If it's actually 2/39 followed by 3/37 it's not as good for the Tigers (because I think it's very likely he opts out after two years), but it's still a deal I'd do, and there's still upside: Rodriguez projects to be worth about 7 WAR over the next two years, which gives the team quitte a bit of surplus value, and even if he doesn't opt out he could still easily be worth 10 WAR over 5 seasons, in which case, again, the Tigers come out ahead.
In any case, it clearly is the case that Bloom didn’t love the player enough to take on that type of risk. I just don't see the quality starter who can be signed on better terms than that.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2021 14:02:10 GMT -5
It’s not 5/80, it’s 2/39 (reportedly), then if he isn’t very good then it’s 3/37. If he lives up to it, then he’s opting out. Perhaps Bloom didn’t love the player enough to take on that type of risk. There’s not much excess value upside for the team here. I thought it was 2/28 then 3/49? I gave my take on that contract above. If it's actually 2/39 followed by 3/37 it's not as good for the Tigers (because I think it's very likely he opts out after two years), but it's still a deal I'd do, and there's still upside: Rodriguez projects to be worth about 7 WAR over the next two years, which gives the team quitte a bit of surplus value, and even if he doesn't opt out he could still easily be worth 10 WAR over 5 seasons, in which case, again, the Tigers come out ahead.
In any case, it clearly is the case that Bloom didn’t love the player enough to take on that type of risk. I just don't see the quality starter who can be signed on better terms than that.
You may be right, and I’d say that’s even worse. Means you’re paying even more for a guy not worth it. Either way it’s not as simple as a 5/77 or 5/80 contract.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2021 15:21:46 GMT -5
My worry is he wanted him back, yet acts like that contract is too much. That worries me coming from Tampa and given what Ben did when he was in a very similar situation. There was certainly a level I walk away from, yet it wasn't close to what he got. If the concern is that Bloom will act like the GM of a small market team and just not spend money on principle, I really don't think we need to worry about that - presumably he'll spend at least close to the CBT limit on something.
I'm with you in thinking that signing Eduardo at 5/80 or so would have been a good use of resources; if I were the GM I wouldn't even have hesitated at that price. But there's no way to judge the overall spending approach until we see what he does spend on.
That's not it, it's that he'll act like Ben and stay away from longer deals, wanting maximum flexibility. I'm just a big believer in sign the good deals when you can, they don't come around every year. You don't want to be forced to spend by ownership and end up doing what Ben did. Zero doubt he spends close to luxury tax line, it's how he does it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2021 15:29:50 GMT -5
I'm confused, anyone have a problem with two years 39 million? That's the classic pay a little more per year to shorten the term. What exactly happens to ERod that scares you with the last three years at 37 million? He's not Pablo, he's not being asked to play the OF for the first time ever like Ramirez. What he misses a year with TJ surgery? That's literally any pitcher you sign, yet he's got a rather low work load given his age. Got a years rest due to Covid, not an arm injury. That contract is so much safer than Eovaldi, with a guy that has a much better track record.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2021 15:36:20 GMT -5
I'm confused, anyone have a problem with two years 39 million? That's the classic pay a little more per year to shorten the term. What exactly happens to ERod that scares you with the last three years at 37 million? He's not Pablo, he's not being asked to play the OF for the first time ever like Ramirez. What he misses a year with TJ surgery? That's literally any pitcher you sign, yet he's got a rather low work load given his age. Got a years rest due to Covid, not an arm injury. That contract is so much safer than Eovaldi, with a guy that has a much better track record. I think he was right with the 28/48 splits…. The issue is you only see the last 3 years if he’s not worth it. I’m all set with committing up to 5 years to him. I’d prefer them spend elsewhere. I wouldn’t have slammed the contract if they gave it to him, but perfectly happy they didn’t.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 19, 2021 17:20:40 GMT -5
I'm confused, anyone have a problem with two years 39 million? That's the classic pay a little more per year to shorten the term. What exactly happens to ERod that scares you with the last three years at 37 million? He's not Pablo, he's not being asked to play the OF for the first time ever like Ramirez. What he misses a year with TJ surgery? That's literally any pitcher you sign, yet he's got a rather low work load given his age. Got a years rest due to Covid, not an arm injury. That contract is so much safer than Eovaldi, with a guy that has a much better track record. I think he was right with the 28/48 splits…. The issue is you only see the last 3 years if he’s not worth it. I’m all set with committing up to 5 years to him. I’d prefer them spend elsewhere. I wouldn’t have slammed the contract if they gave it to him, but perfectly happy they didn’t. I think the only scenario where he opts into the 3/49 portion of the contract is one where he gets hurt, and even then it could still be a worthwhile contract overall for the Tigers. Whereas if he opts out after two years he almost certainly will have given the Tigers substantial surplus value in 2022-2023. In $/WAR terms, I think Detroit is very likely to come out ahead here.
Obviously Chaim Bloom agrees with you and not me here. I just wish I understood the thinking, as I don't see where there's a better deal to be had for free agent pitching. Do you go cheaper with Matz? Jon Gray? Projections have them going for about 3/42. It's not like there's no risk there. I would like Rodriguez at 5/77 so much better than either of those.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 19, 2021 18:16:37 GMT -5
I think he was right with the 28/48 splits…. The issue is you only see the last 3 years if he’s not worth it. I’m all set with committing up to 5 years to him. I’d prefer them spend elsewhere. I wouldn’t have slammed the contract if they gave it to him, but perfectly happy they didn’t. I think the only scenario where he opts into the 3/49 portion of the contract is one where he gets hurt, and even then it could still be a worthwhile contract overall for the Tigers. Whereas if he opts out after two years he almost certainly will have given the Tigers substantial surplus value in 2022-2023. In $/WAR terms, I think Detroit is very likely to come out ahead here.
Obviously Chaim Bloom agrees with you and not me here. I just wish I understood the thinking, as I don't see where there's a better deal to be had for free agent pitching. Do you go cheaper with Matz? Jon Gray? Projections have them going for about 3/42. It's not like there's no risk there. I would like Rodriguez at 5/77 so much better than either of those. Although I'm very anti-player-option, I agree that it still seems like a reasonable deal. But there are a couple of items that aren't being heavily discussed: - Bloom may view Houck and Whitlock as starters this year and is therefore looking for a 6th starter - We haven't seen Eduardo's medicals. We assume they're fairly clean but it's possible there's something that scared off the Red Sox from those last 3 years - He reportedly got a no trade clause. Although this may not seem like much in value, it's possible/likely this was a deal breaker if Eduardo insisted on it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2021 14:14:45 GMT -5
I'm confused, anyone have a problem with two years 39 million? That's the classic pay a little more per year to shorten the term. What exactly happens to ERod that scares you with the last three years at 37 million? He's not Pablo, he's not being asked to play the OF for the first time ever like Ramirez. What he misses a year with TJ surgery? That's literally any pitcher you sign, yet he's got a rather low work load given his age. Got a years rest due to Covid, not an arm injury. That contract is so much safer than Eovaldi, with a guy that has a much better track record. I think he was right with the 28/48 splits…. The issue is you only see the last 3 years if he’s not worth it. I’m all set with committing up to 5 years to him. I’d prefer them spend elsewhere. I wouldn’t have slammed the contract if they gave it to him, but perfectly happy they didn’t. I have serious doubts about a 28/48 split when he turned down over $18 million this year. Why would it be set up that way? I've seen no contract details at this point. ERod for me given his age, inning totals and lack of injuries for last 3 plus years is about as good of a bet as any pitcher you'll find on that Salary. Say he blows out his elbow and opts in to the last three years. Still could be great value at that salary. Just look at John Lackey even without the extra year. This is a much bigger miss than letting Lester go. First you got Porcello and Second he got over twice what ERod got and that contract is crazy old. Like spend on what?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2021 15:54:34 GMT -5
It's been reported. 2/28, then he opts in or out of 3/49.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2021 16:06:13 GMT -5
It’s not that hard to figure out why a guy who’s career was threatened last year would prefer 77m guaranteed over 18m.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2021 16:12:07 GMT -5
It’s not that hard to figure out why a guy who’s career was threatened last year would prefer 77m guaranteed over 18m. Yeah, and as someone pointed out the 2/28 could also be a hedge against a potential work stoppage that would bite into a potential 1/18 contract.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 20, 2021 16:19:07 GMT -5
I think the only scenario where he opts into the 3/49 portion of the contract is one where he gets hurt, and even then it could still be a worthwhile contract overall for the Tigers. Whereas if he opts out after two years he almost certainly will have given the Tigers substantial surplus value in 2022-2023. In $/WAR terms, I think Detroit is very likely to come out ahead here.
Obviously Chaim Bloom agrees with you and not me here. I just wish I understood the thinking, as I don't see where there's a better deal to be had for free agent pitching. Do you go cheaper with Matz? Jon Gray? Projections have them going for about 3/42. It's not like there's no risk there. I would like Rodriguez at 5/77 so much better than either of those. Although I'm very anti-player-option, I agree that it still seems like a reasonable deal. But there are a couple of items that aren't being heavily discussed: - Bloom may view Houck and Whitlock as starters this year and is therefore looking for a 6th starter- We haven't seen Eduardo's medicals. We assume they're fairly clean but it's possible there's something that scared off the Red Sox from those last 3 years - He reportedly got a no trade clause. Although this may not seem like much in value, it's possible/likely this was a deal breaker if Eduardo insisted on it. I would consider it an even worse idea if Bloom's plan is to let Eduardo go because he's penciled both Houck and Whitlock into the starting 5. That is just not enough depth; they need to add something considerably better than a 6th starter.
On the medicals, sure, that's possible, but as others have said, I don't think you're likely to find a starter who's a better bet to be healthy over the next 5 years, considering his age and relatively light historical workload.
I would guess the draft pick meant more to Bloom than the no-trade clause. Still, according to this, draft pick #70 should only be worth about $4 million; it doesn't seem like it should be that big of a factor.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 21, 2021 13:44:15 GMT -5
Well that's even worse. What is the breakdown of the two years 28 million? That's only 9.6 million more than the QO this year. I guess I could see a hedge bassed on missed time if it was something like 10 million next year and 18 million the year after.
Yet a likely scenario is you get two years at 14 million per and he opts out. Given ERods career that looks like a steal and a real chance for excess value. With the so called negative being 3 years at about 16 million. I would have given Bloom an A+ if he got ERod to sign that contract in Boston.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 22, 2021 15:38:19 GMT -5
Listening to Chaim + ERod today, I do not get the impression that the Red Sox had much interest in bringing him back
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 22, 2021 15:41:20 GMT -5
[MEDIA=twitter]1462879816370335745[/MEDIA]
View:
[MEDIA=twitter]1462880976401489927[/MEDIA]
View:
Seems like HE (ERod) wanted to move on
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Post by incandenza on Nov 22, 2021 15:43:33 GMT -5
Listening to Chaim + ERod today, I do not get the impression that the Red Sox had much interest in bringing him back Any sense as to why? Bloom knows a lot more than I do and I'm sure they have their reasons, but I've really struggled to understand their thinking here.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 22, 2021 15:45:58 GMT -5
that takes a day or less, to call the sox and say (tigers offered me X) will you match...
that he did not do that shows he wanted to move on
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 22, 2021 17:21:57 GMT -5
Listening to Chaim + ERod today, I do not get the impression that the Red Sox had much interest in bringing him back I felt the opposite and that it was Erod who wanted to move on
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 22, 2021 17:24:02 GMT -5
Listening to Chaim + ERod today, I do not get the impression that the Red Sox had much interest in bringing him back I felt the opposite and that it was Erod who wanted to move on He could have been disappointed that the Sox didn't put that offer out during the season or during the exclusive negotiating period and said the hell with them, they had their chance. Let's get this done now. People like feeling prioritized and perhaps he didn't feel that way with the Red Sox.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 22, 2021 17:28:44 GMT -5
I see that more as Bloom didn't want to give him a long-term deal. If Bloom wanted him back, you make offers to show ERod you want him. Yet I'm even more confused because Bloom said they made offers. How do you make an offer that doesn't discuss years?
I might be way off, yet given what I've heard about what happened, I get they pulled a Lester with ERod. Where it was so bad, there was no reason even going back to them. It was clear it wasn't going to work.
Let's see what Bloom does, not a fan of how this has started though.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 22, 2021 17:43:54 GMT -5
Listening to Chaim + ERod today, I do not get the impression that the Red Sox had much interest in bringing him back Any sense as to why? Bloom knows a lot more than I do and I'm sure they have their reasons, but I've really struggled to understand their thinking here. Maybe the Sox saw him as someone who nibbled too much and wasn't always on enough or confident enough to attack the strike zone. He could be frustrating a good percentage of the time. Then he was really good a lot also. I think most of us think the contract was reasonable but it doesn't seem like the Sox did. I think ERod in the end just wanted to move on as the Sox weren't committed enough to him.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 22, 2021 21:32:41 GMT -5
ERod has never been a guy I’ve been excited about the prospect of him pitching a big game. Maybe that’s my head trash but his career ERA is over 4 and his post season numbers are worse. Maybe Bloom just had no desire of committing 5 years at Eovaldi type money to a guy he isn’t confident can be a strong post season option. Think comfortable as a top 2 guy in your rotation. Seems reasonable to me.
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