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2021-2022 National Rankings (offseason)
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Feb 5, 2022 13:07:49 GMT -5
Back on the topic of legitimate sources, apparently BA went to 40 this year. 1. Marcelo Mayer 2. Triston Casas 3. Nick Yorke 4. Jarren Duran 5. Brayan Bello 6. Jeter Downs 7. Blaze Jordan 8. Bryan Mata 9. Josh Winckowski 10. Jay Groome 11. Brandon Walter 12. Chris Murphy 13. Wilkelman Gonzalez 14. Matthew Lugo 15. Kutter Crawford 16. Tyler McDonough 17. Alex Binelas 18. Brainer Bonaci 19. Thaddeus Ward 20. Miguel Bleis 21. Connor Seabold 22. Ceddanne Rafaela 23. Gilberto Jimenez24. Nathan Hickey 25. David Hamilton 26. Christian Koss 27. Ronaldo Hernandez 28. Eddinson Paulino 29. Connor Wong 30. Noah Song More Prospects to Know 31. Jeremy Wu-Yelland 32. Chih-Jung Liu 33. Jhostynxon Garcia 34. Nathanael Cruz 35. Miguel Ugueto 36. Bradley Blalock 37. Luis Perales 38. Juan Chacon 39. Nick Decker 40. Brendan Cellucci For whatever it's worth, I believe Alex only submitted 30, so the other 10 must come from the BA guys. Interesting 🧐
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 6, 2022 13:56:59 GMT -5
Back on the topic of legitimate sources, apparently BA went to 40 this year. 1. Marcelo Mayer 2. Triston Casas 3. Nick Yorke 4. Jarren Duran 5. Brayan Bello 6. Jeter Downs 7. Blaze Jordan 8. Bryan Mata 9. Josh Winckowski 10. Jay Groome 11. Brandon Walter 12. Chris Murphy 13. Wilkelman Gonzalez 14. Matthew Lugo 15. Kutter Crawford 16. Tyler McDonough 17. Alex Binelas 18. Brainer Bonaci 19. Thaddeus Ward 20. Miguel Bleis 21. Connor Seabold 22. Ceddanne Rafaela 23. Gilberto Jimenez24. Nathan Hickey 25. David Hamilton 26. Christian Koss 27. Ronaldo Hernandez 28. Eddinson Paulino 29. Connor Wong 30. Noah Song More Prospects to Know 31. Jeremy Wu-Yelland 32. Chih-Jung Liu 33. Jhostynxon Garcia 34. Nathanael Cruz 35. Miguel Ugueto 36. Bradley Blalock 37. Luis Perales 38. Juan Chacon 39. Nick Decker 40. Brendan Cellucci For whatever it's worth, I believe Alex only submitted 30, so the other 10 must come from the BA guys. Interesting 🧐 If you parachuted in and watched Salem for the first time last year, I 100% would get ranking them that way. Alex has also made the point, and I agree, that it's more likely Rafaela gets picked in Rule 5 than Jimenez because he has a clear MLB skill in his defense, while Jimenez displays none right now. That said, I think Jimenez has more upside, for now. If he comes out and is still being super slappy and looking uninspired on defense this year, then he'll fall in our rankings, fast. Some guys need to fail before they figure out our. The problem is the org needed to try to get across to him that despite his batting average, he was failing in 2021. You almost wonder if he needs to go out and get carved up to start 2022 for his own good.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 6, 2022 21:14:13 GMT -5
If you parachuted in and watched Salem for the first time last year, I 100% would get ranking them that way. Alex has also made the point, and I agree, that it's more likely Rafaela gets picked in Rule 5 than Jimenez because he has a clear MLB skill in his defense, while Jimenez displays none right now. That said, I think Jimenez has more upside, for now. If he comes out and is still being super slappy and looking uninspired on defense this year, then he'll fall in our rankings, fast. Some guys need to fail before they figure out our. The problem is the org needed to try to get across to him that despite his batting average, he was failing in 2021. You almost wonder if he needs to go out and get carved up to start 2022 for his own good. There is also the possibility that he is what he is....He's fast, muscular, puts bat to ball, but seemingly can't drive it. Then you have little guys like Altuve who can launch it. Sometimes those abilities or lack are immutably innate.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 7, 2022 8:36:23 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 7, 2022 9:35:26 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, a sample of teams with their top 100 guys on Law's list: 14. Miami (33, 47, 64) 15. San Diego (5, 24, 59, 67) 16. Chicago (NL) (28) (FWIW, specifically notes the 1 top 100 guy but says large group just below) 17. Atlanta (38, 61, 80) 18. Minnesota (29, 43, 96) 19. Cincinnati (12, 69, 72) 20. Boston (18, 37, 56, 86) Top 100 prospects isn't the be-all, end-all of a farm system ranking, and I get he's going to rank them lower than BA because he's less bullish on Casas, but I don't think the Red Sox lack depth such that it pushes them below some of these orgs. Based on his write-up, it feels like he is dinging them for Downs having a poor year and Duran struggling in the majors (and a historical struggle to develop starters that shouldn't matter) more than giving them credit for the guys who did perform and project well.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 7, 2022 10:01:27 GMT -5
If Keith Law had us higher, I'd be more concerned. Law lost a few mph of his fastball a few years ago
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Feb 7, 2022 14:15:15 GMT -5
In today's Athletic Q&A Law had the Red Sox as one of his "high variance" teams with potential to rise up significantly by mid season. I'm guessing he puts more stock in guys being in the high minors rather then some of the systems high potential guys who haven't completed full season ball.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 7, 2022 14:38:21 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, a sample of teams with their top 100 guys on Law's list: 14. Miami (33, 47, 64) 15. San Diego (5, 24, 59, 67) 16. Chicago (NL) (28) (FWIW, specifically notes the 1 top 100 guy but says large group just below) 17. Atlanta (38, 61, 80) 18. Minnesota (29, 43, 96) 19. Cincinnati (12, 69, 72) 20. Boston (18, 37, 56, 86) Top 100 prospects isn't the be-all, end-all of a farm system ranking, and I get he's going to rank them lower than BA because he's less bullish on Casas, but I don't think the Red Sox lack depth such that it pushes them below some of these orgs. Based on his write-up, it feels like he is dinging them for Downs having a poor year and Duran struggling in the majors (and a historical struggle to develop starters that shouldn't matter) more than giving them credit for the guys who did perform and project well. I thought the Red Sox system was supposed to be especially strong in depth, though (i.e., the 10-30 range or so). That seems to be the view here, and was reflected in the last fangraphs ranking as well - they had them with the fourth most 40 FV guys and above. Does Law disagree with that?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 7, 2022 14:49:55 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, a sample of teams with their top 100 guys on Law's list: 14. Miami (33, 47, 64) 15. San Diego (5, 24, 59, 67) 16. Chicago (NL) (28) (FWIW, specifically notes the 1 top 100 guy but says large group just below) 17. Atlanta (38, 61, 80) 18. Minnesota (29, 43, 96) 19. Cincinnati (12, 69, 72) 20. Boston (18, 37, 56, 86) Top 100 prospects isn't the be-all, end-all of a farm system ranking, and I get he's going to rank them lower than BA because he's less bullish on Casas, but I don't think the Red Sox lack depth such that it pushes them below some of these orgs. Based on his write-up, it feels like he is dinging them for Downs having a poor year and Duran struggling in the majors (and a historical struggle to develop starters that shouldn't matter) more than giving them credit for the guys who did perform and project well. I thought the Red Sox system was supposed to be especially strong in depth, though (i.e., the 10-30 range or so). That seems to be the view here, and was reflected in the last fangraphs ranking as well - they had them with the fourth most 40 FV guys and above. Does Law disagree with that? Who knows? James did just remind me that last summer he said that Jay Groome might be the best prospect in the system outside of Mayer, so... YMMV
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 7, 2022 19:47:01 GMT -5
If Keith Law had us higher, I'd be more concerned. Law lost a few mph of his fastball a few years ago I'm not going to bother reading anything he writes anymore. Not worth it.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,936
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Post by nomar on Feb 7, 2022 20:38:55 GMT -5
If Keith Law had us higher, I'd be more concerned. Law lost a few mph of his fastball a few years ago I'm not going to bother reading anything he writes anymore. Not worth it. You can feel as you’re reading his stuff when he starts to get wound up/hyperbolic and that’s the stuff I throw an asterisk next to. But that being said, I love to read the opinion of just about any scout when it comes to prospects I follow.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 8, 2022 1:13:10 GMT -5
Can still remember that beauty of a curve he was throwing down at The Fort in a game saw on one of the MiLB fields several years back, along with a FB believe was in 91-2 range back then. The curve was unworldly, but how long, even with injuries added in can it take? Will it ever come together for this guy?
My hopes started dimming before last year. It's been 6y now guys and even with the injuries added.. definite progress needs to be made.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 8, 2022 4:54:54 GMT -5
An old expression, opinions are like noses, everybody's got one.
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 8, 2022 9:31:06 GMT -5
Can still remember that beauty of a curve he was throwing down at The Fort in a game saw on one of the MiLB fields several years back, along with a FB believe was in 91-2 range back then. The curve was unworldly, but how long, even with injuries added in can it take? Will it ever come together for this guy? My hopes started dimming before last year. It's been 6y now guys and even with the injuries added.. definite progress needs to be made. The last 3 starts in Portland give me hope that he did make some progress last yr. Some ridiculous numbers in a SSS, but it was against the highest level of competition for him.
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Post by taiwansox on Feb 8, 2022 9:45:53 GMT -5
Can still remember that beauty of a curve he was throwing down at The Fort in a game saw on one of the MiLB fields several years back, along with a FB believe was in 91-2 range back then. The curve was unworldly, but how long, even with injuries added in can it take? Will it ever come together for this guy? My hopes started dimming before last year. It's been 6y now guys and even with the injuries added.. definite progress needs to be made. The last 3 starts in Portland give me hope that he did make some progress last yr. Some ridiculous numbers in a SSS, but it was against the highest level of competition for him. Not too long ago Rich Hill had a SSS breakout in the second half of 2015. Not saying we’re going to see the same outcome, but I think he’s shown enough to be a serviceable starter. Couldn’t he at least be a Brian Johnson type as long as his arm doesn’t fall off?
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Post by voiceofreason on Feb 8, 2022 10:05:14 GMT -5
The last 3 starts in Portland give me hope that he did make some progress last yr. Some ridiculous numbers in a SSS, but it was against the highest level of competition for him. Not too long ago Rich Hill had a SSS breakout in the second half of 2015. Not saying we’re going to see the same outcome, but I think he’s shown enough to be a serviceable starter. Couldn’t he at least be a Brian Johnson type as long as his arm doesn’t fall off? Rich Hill has been throwing good innings for years now and he has great value, it is just a matter of how many innings you are going to get. If the Sox maintain the 4 inning piggyback role for him it could be ideal. I think they are going to use Wacha and Houck the same way and hope to get 120+ quality innings out of each of them.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 8, 2022 17:44:46 GMT -5
An old expression, opinions are like noses, everybody's got one. I learned the same expression...but with a different piece of anatomy
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 8, 2022 20:56:05 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Feb 10, 2022 13:26:19 GMT -5
Prospects Live Top 30 list is out. The ranking of the top 10 with full reports on the top 5 are available for free. Full reports and rankings of all 30 are only available to Patreon members (of which I am not): 1. Triston Casas - 55 OFP 2. Marcelo Mayer - 55 OFP 3. Nick Yorke - 55 OFP 4. Bryan Mata - 50 OFP 5. Jay Groome - 50 OFP 6. Jeter Downs - 45 OFP 7. Blaze Jordan - 45 OFP 8. Jarren Duran - 45 OFP 9. Brayan Bello - 45 OFP 10. Josh Winckowski - 45 OFP Am I the only one a little surprised at the love for Winckowski across several sites now?
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2022 14:05:53 GMT -5
Winchowski's velocity was outstanding in the AFL, which is where a lot of people would've seen him. There's obviously something about breaking into the Top 10, but the drop from 10 to 13 is pretty negligible.
Mata going up from 6 to 4 despite not pitching this year is quite a thing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2022 15:56:28 GMT -5
Mata at 4 feels like assuming no ill effects from TJS, which the guy at 5 feels like a prime example of not being the case.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 10, 2022 16:03:21 GMT -5
Winchowski's velocity was outstanding in the AFL, which is where a lot of people would've seen him. There's obviously something about breaking into the Top 10, but the drop from 10 to 13 is pretty negligible. Mata going up from 6 to 4 despite not pitching this year is quite a thing. It's a Mata of opinion
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Post by ramireja on Feb 10, 2022 19:37:38 GMT -5
Winchowski's velocity was outstanding in the AFL, which is where a lot of people would've seen him. There's obviously something about breaking into the Top 10, but the drop from 10 to 13 is pretty negligible. Mata going up from 6 to 4 despite not pitching this year is quite a thing. Definitely agree on the Mata ranking. I'm pretty bullish on Mata in my own personal rankings but thats just bizarre. Even the report on Groome, although referring to some things from the past year, also felt like a report from years ago with regard to scouting information (e.g., the plus FB and CB combo instead of a reported more balanced 4-pitch mix). I don't know that I can put a ton of stock into these rankings to be honest. Regarding Winckowski, its not so much the difference between say 10 and 13 that I'm surprised about, I suppose its just the emerging consensus that he belongs somewhere in or just outside of the top 10. Despite the velo, he doesn't miss a ton of bats and I'm not seeing enough in the scouting reports or stats to put him ahead of guys like Brandon Walter or Wilkelman Gonzalez for me. I'm personally more comfortable ranking him in a tier with Kutter Crawford, maybe Thad Ward (although hard to factor in TJ risk), Chris Murphy, etc, that spans across the late teens and early 20s in the system. I'll also fully admit that nobody here should take my opinion as seriously as any of these outlets. I'm just a bit surprised and would love to hear rationale as to why he's seemingly in front of other interesting pitchers some of which are showing more ability to miss bats.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 10, 2022 19:50:23 GMT -5
In regards to Winckowski, every scout and site is going to see something different but it gives me some serious hope they'll get something out of him and some of the push back from this site shows just how far this farm has come since Bloom took over. There's some very solid depth to go along with the big 3 of Casas, Mayer and Yorke. It's a fun time to be a soxprospect reader/poster.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,992
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Post by jimoh on Feb 10, 2022 21:04:47 GMT -5
Mata at 4 feels like assuming no ill effects from TJS, which the guy at 5 feels like a prime example of not being the case. Eovaldi and Whitlock and eventually Rich Hill have done OK, and Sale semi-OK so far; it's not hard to imagine a 5-man post-TJ rotation at some time. Pivetta is the only uncut starter, right? Plus Houck?
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