TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,840
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 11, 2022 13:25:17 GMT -5
Really interesting list. 55 FV: Triston Casas Marcelo Mayer Nick Yorke 45+ FV Wilkelman Gonzalez Gilberto Jimenez 45 FV Miguel Bleis Connor Seabold Brayan Bello Ronaldo Hernández Brandon Walter 40+ Jeter Downs Bryan Mata Jay Groome Tyler McDonough David Hamilton Blaze Jordan Alex Binelas Thaddeus Ward Noah Song Qiuck thoughts: - Quite a drop for Downs, but he earned it. He's ranked with the TJ guys, guys with a utility ceiling, and a Navy pilot who hasn't been on a mound in three years.
- Groome and the Blazer seem a notch low
- I agree that Bello deserves more love
- Still can't figure out what CB sees in Binelas that nobody else seems to see
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 11, 2022 13:30:56 GMT -5
Really interesting list. 55 FV: Triston Casas Marcelo Mayer Nick Yorke 45+ FV Wilkelman Gonzalez Gilberto Jimenez 45 FV Miguel Bleis Connor Seabold Brayan Bello Ronaldo Hernández Brandon Walter 40+ Jeter Downs Bryan Mata Jay Groome Tyler McDonough David Hamilton Blaze Jordan Alex Binelas Thaddeus Ward Noah Song Qiuck thoughts: - Quite a drop for Downs, but he earned it. He's ranked with the TJ guys, guys with a utility ceiling, and a Navy pilot who hasn't been on a mound in three years.
- Groome and the Blazer seem a notch low
- I agree that Bello deserves more love
- Still can't figure out what CB sees in Binelas that nobody else seems to see
I'll also add that I was kind of disappointed to see that Nathan Hickey wasn't even in the top 51. The Sox gave him a million last year in the draft and I was hoping that I'd read something along the lines of "Hickey is a bat first catcher with a chance to improve enough defensively to be a viable catching option" or something like that, but I guess they're not too high on him. It was weird to see Binelas and Blaze Jordan down so low with Jimenez up so high. I can be Wikelman Gonzalez being that high up - I hope they're right about that one. He's easily the most intriguing pitching prospect they have at this point (with the exception of the guy we've never seen pitch - Noah Song).
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Post by prospectlove on Mar 11, 2022 13:55:32 GMT -5
Bello seems very overlooked to me this off-season Reliever risk. Hard for me anyways to look favorably on someone who is being looked at by one of the major publications as a possible reliever. I get relievers are valuable and save money for the team to spend elsewhere (if a minor leaguer can take the slot and perform at low cost), but I'ld be higher even if he had a #4 starter outlook.
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Post by prospectlove on Mar 11, 2022 13:58:56 GMT -5
Really interesting list. 55 FV: Triston Casas Marcelo Mayer Nick Yorke 45+ FV Wilkelman Gonzalez Gilberto Jimenez 45 FV Miguel Bleis Connor Seabold Brayan Bello Ronaldo Hernández Brandon Walter 40+ Jeter Downs Bryan Mata Jay Groome Tyler McDonough David Hamilton Blaze Jordan Alex Binelas Thaddeus Ward Noah Song Qiuck thoughts: - Quite a drop for Downs, but he earned it. He's ranked with the TJ guys, guys with a utility ceiling, and a Navy pilot who hasn't been on a mound in three years.
- Groome and the Blazer seem a notch low
- I agree that Bello deserves more love
- Still can't figure out what CB sees in Binelas that nobody else seems to see
Just a quick interesting note on this. I read in the Globe an article talking about our managers take on minor leaguers and who he might be impressed with given he's watching the training. He mentioned Yorke first. Then mentioned how much bigger Mayer was. The third guy he mentioned was Binelas and how he really impressed him. Was just kinda interesting to me, which is obviously vague in details also.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 11, 2022 15:04:44 GMT -5
Are Yorke's grades a typo? I don't think I've ever seen anyone with a higher game power than raw power. I get both are relative to the situation, but I feel like there's almost always a drop off. And Binelas is listed at 50/50 raw power, though it's plus plus in the writeup. And he has "plenty of swing and miss", but his future hit tool is 60?
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Post by ajs1994 on Mar 11, 2022 15:14:34 GMT -5
Are Yorke's grades a typo? I don't think I've ever seen anyone with a higher game power than raw power. I get both are relative to the situation, but I feel like there's almost always a drop off. Don't think it's a typo. I remember this was asked from the chat about the top 100 prospects FG put out about Cubs prospect James Triantos: Scotty: Hey all, Triantos as 55 game power and 50 raw, how does that happen? Thanks! 1:04 Eric A Longenhagen: with so much contact that you outproduce your raw (how far hit ball) with game (how often hit ball far) 1:04 Eric A Longenhagen: [plenty of big league examples, Altuve doesn’t have 7 raw but he’s had years of 7 gamne because of all the contact (Link to the chat: blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects-chat/)
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 11, 2022 15:56:51 GMT -5
So I guess you would think about that as raw power correlating with Iso whereas game power more directly with slugging percentage. At the extreme, you've got someone like Wade Boggs with a .443 career SLG (very good!) despite only a .115 Iso.
There's no one thing on that Fangraphs list that I'd say is insane, but it's like they're one step out of the mainstream view on everyone out of the top three in one direction or the other, leading to a list that looks just totally batty.
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Post by jaffinator on Mar 11, 2022 17:25:06 GMT -5
So I guess you would think about that as raw power correlating with Iso whereas game power more directly with slugging percentage. At the extreme, you've got someone like Wade Boggs with a .443 career SLG (very good!) despite only a .115 Iso. There's no one thing on that Fangraphs list that I'd say is insane, but it's like they're one step out of the mainstream view on everyone out of the top three in one direction or the other, leading to a list that looks just totally batty. While an out of step list is probably less accurate overall, it is probably more helpful in terms of actually predicting prospect outcomes.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 17, 2022 9:42:30 GMT -5
BA expanded their rankings out to 40:
31. Wu-Yelland 32. Liu 33. Jhostynxon Garcia 34. Nathanael Cruz 35. Ugueto 36. Blalock 37. Perales 38. Chacon 39. Decker 40. Cellucci
Also picked a breakout prospect for each team and Bleis was the pick for the Red Sox.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 17, 2022 19:30:01 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Mar 17, 2022 20:20:34 GMT -5
Nick Gonzales (20), Zac Veen (36) and Robert Hassell (37) over Yorke!? OK lol
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,840
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Post by TearsIn04 on Mar 18, 2022 16:04:14 GMT -5
My recollection is that when CB took over, we had no top-100 guys. Now we have four and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of Bello, Blazer or even Groome nudge in there this year. I had hope for Mata, too, before he TJ'ed.
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Post by jaffinator on Mar 18, 2022 18:34:59 GMT -5
Nick Gonzales (20), Zac Veen (36) and Robert Hassell (37) over Yorke!? OK lol I don't inherently have the same level of issue with Gonzales over Yorke because they have very different backgrounds as prospects and it's been one season, but I disagree to the utmost with Hassell or especially Veen over him. Hassell at least could be a centerfielder, but Veen is locked into a corner OF spot basically. And needless to say, Yorke has significantly outhit them both.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 19, 2022 15:57:39 GMT -5
But they don't just project him to be a "corner OF". They are talking elite RF based on write up and tool grades. That is significantly more defensive value than a "competent 2B".
Whether that's enough to validate the rankings? Not for me to say. But there is a lot of variation in the "corner OF" designation.
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Post by jaffinator on Mar 19, 2022 21:50:15 GMT -5
Right. My point isn't that Veen can't or is unlikely to be a more valuable defender in the pros. My point is that to make up the difference in how they've produced offensively, I would have thought that he'd need to play a true premium defensive position. If MLB.com thinks he has gold glove type RF potential, fair play, just not the evaluation I'd heard coming into the season, though it sounds like he may have improved it throughout the year. Obviously the specific eval is worth more than the general trend, but most elite RFers defensively didn't start at that position and aren't "big body out of HS" types.
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Post by e on Mar 19, 2022 23:23:41 GMT -5
Right. My point isn't that Veen can't or is unlikely to be a more valuable defender in the pros. My point is that to make up the difference in how they've produced offensively, I would have thought that he'd need to play a true premium defensive position. If MLB.com thinks he has gold glove type RF potential, fair play, just not the evaluation I'd heard coming into the season, though it sounds like he may have improved it throughout the year. Obviously the specific eval is worth more than the general trend, but most elite RFers defensively didn't start at that position and aren't "big body out of HS" types. You need to account for future projections like power. Veen is a big kid who has a feel to hit, already some power, and massive raw power. That alone, combined with being an above average runner, can give him an edge over Yorke. They most likely see a much higher ceiling for Veen compared to Yorke, even though Yorke pretty clearly has the high floor(low k rate, good bat to ball skills and discipline). Also just a disclaimer: Yorke is a better prospect than Veen in my book, just trying to explain why I think they would put Veen above him.
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Post by e on Mar 19, 2022 23:24:52 GMT -5
Right. My point isn't that Veen can't or is unlikely to be a more valuable defender in the pros. My point is that to make up the difference in how they've produced offensively, I would have thought that he'd need to play a true premium defensive position. If MLB.com thinks he has gold glove type RF potential, fair play, just not the evaluation I'd heard coming into the season, though it sounds like he may have improved it throughout the year. Obviously the specific eval is worth more than the general trend, but most elite RFers defensively didn't start at that position and aren't "big body out of HS" types. You need to account for future projections like power. Veen is a big kid who has a feel to hit, already some power, and massive raw power. That alone, combined with being an above average runner, can give him an edge over Yorke. They most likely see a much higher ceiling for Veen compared to Yorke, even though Yorke pretty clearly has the high floor(low k rate, good bat to ball skills and discipline). Also just a disclaimer: Yorke is a better prospect than Veen in my book, just trying to explain why I think they would put Veen above him. To add on, just because one prospect had a better offensive season than the other statistically, doesn't mean they instantly become a better prospect.
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Post by jaffinator on Mar 20, 2022 0:08:29 GMT -5
You need to account for future projections like power. Veen is a big kid who has a feel to hit, already some power, and massive raw power. That alone, combined with being an above average runner, can give him an edge over Yorke. They most likely see a much higher ceiling for Veen compared to Yorke, even though Yorke pretty clearly has the high floor(low k rate, good bat to ball skills and discipline). Also just a disclaimer: Yorke is a better prospect than Veen in my book, just trying to explain why I think they would put Veen above him. To add on, just because one prospect had a better offensive season than the other statistically, doesn't mean they instantly become a better prospect. No, but from what I've seen it's not just that Veen isn't hitting as well in one season as Yorke. There are actual concerns about how he fared against more advanced pitching, especially inside, and that the hit tool might place a ceiling on the power. Maybe it's my priors coming into play as someone who's tired of the "all athlete" prospect, when we can see that it's hit tool or bust to be completely honest. I would say that I literally speaking understand why Veen would be rated higher, and I didn't know that Veen had supposedly improved to such a degree in the field, but it's not a perspective I share.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Mar 20, 2022 0:58:26 GMT -5
To think that a number 17 pick in the draft and have every expert question the choice and see him the 55th best prospect in the top 100 only makes me smile.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 21, 2022 20:22:01 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline Top 30 is out: 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Yorke 4. Duran 5. Bello 6. Downs 7. Jordan 8. Mata 9. Walter 10. W. Gonzalez 11. Murphy 12. Groome 13. Lugo 14. Winchowski 15. Seabold 16. Ward 17. Bleis 18. Jimenez 19. McDonough 20. Paulino 21. Bonaci 22. Binelas 23. Hickey 24. Hernandez 25. Crawford 26. Scott 27. Koss 28. Rafaela 29. Decker 30. Liu www.mlb.com/prospects/redsox/
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Post by Addam603 on Mar 21, 2022 20:46:23 GMT -5
Stephen Scott at 26 is certainly interesting. I like Scott but that seems really high.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 21, 2022 20:59:25 GMT -5
Stephen Scott at 26 is certainly interesting. I like Scott but that seems really high. Reading the write-up, it seems like they're presuming he can stick behind the plate full-time. Still high but that makes it a bit more understandable.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Mar 21, 2022 21:50:07 GMT -5
The pipeline write up on Bleis says he has a left handed swing pretty sure that’s wrong
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Post by bosox904 on Mar 22, 2022 9:43:03 GMT -5
Binelas seems really low to me.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Mar 22, 2022 13:39:09 GMT -5
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