SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 27, 2022 10:01:03 GMT -5
This has been a blg part of my optimism along with a slew of other factors. It just seems like this is the kind of deal the Sox will be willing to be the highest bidder to acquire a very good "prospect" without it costing anything other than money. And from the projections on what the cost will be it seems like he could easily outproduce his contract. And if he doesn't come over and be a 4+ war player it isn't as if 12 million/yr is going kill the Sox budget. Exactly. I can see the Sox willing to go spend $100 million if they think they'll get a good return on investment. I think that's a lot more palatable for them than going out and spending $300 plus million on a free agent, especially if they need that money to try to retain Devers. I'm very high on both Suzuki and Bloom, but if they gave him $100m, I'd think they'd lost their damn minds.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Jan 27, 2022 10:31:51 GMT -5
Exactly. I can see the Sox willing to go spend $100 million if they think they'll get a good return on investment. I think that's a lot more palatable for them than going out and spending $300 plus million on a free agent, especially if they need that money to try to retain Devers. I'm very high on both Suzuki and Bloom, but if they gave him $100m, I'd think they'd lost their damn minds. If you wouldn't be happy with something like 7/100 then I don't think you're actually all that high on Suzuki.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 27, 2022 10:42:13 GMT -5
I'm very high on both Suzuki and Bloom, but if they gave him $100m, I'd think they'd lost their damn minds. If you wouldn't be happy with something like 7/100 then I don't think you're actually all that high on Suzuki. I don't think 7/100 is on the table for a 27yr old. That eliminates any chance of a 2nd deal at 31/32.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,094
|
Post by nomar on Jan 27, 2022 10:52:34 GMT -5
I'm very high on both Suzuki and Bloom, but if they gave him $100m, I'd think they'd lost their damn minds. If you wouldn't be happy with something like 7/100 then I don't think you're actually all that high on Suzuki. He’s not getting 7 years from anyone
|
|
|
Post by thelpc on Jan 27, 2022 11:10:16 GMT -5
Feels almost certain he’s not coming here
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2022 12:19:44 GMT -5
That's the same report that previously was posted in here. As far as I'm aware, there's a report he's likely signing with the Red Sox and another that has the four finalists that don't include the Red Sox, plus Gammons asking GMs to speculate (which I don't think is worth much because they're guessing).
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 27, 2022 13:43:27 GMT -5
Exactly. I can see the Sox willing to go spend $100 million if they think they'll get a good return on investment. I think that's a lot more palatable for them than going out and spending $300 plus million on a free agent, especially if they need that money to try to retain Devers. I'm very high on both Suzuki and Bloom, but if they gave him $100m, I'd think they'd lost their damn minds. I was exaggerating a bit. I mean I see 5 years 55 million tossed around and I think he'll go a lot higher than that, probably closer to 75 million or maybe it's 100 million if they do 7 years.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2022 14:59:46 GMT -5
I'm very high on both Suzuki and Bloom, but if they gave him $100m, I'd think they'd lost their damn minds. I was exaggerating a bit. I mean I see 5 years 55 million tossed around and I think he'll go a lot higher than that, probably closer to 75 million or maybe it's 100 million if they do 7 years. There have been 105 contracts signed by MLB players for $100m or more in history, per Cot's. Seiya Suzuki isn't getting $100m.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,547
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jan 27, 2022 15:42:06 GMT -5
I'll take a guess that Suzuki gets 5 years 75 million. 15 AAV seems fair to me. We shall see though.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 27, 2022 15:42:44 GMT -5
I was exaggerating a bit. I mean I see 5 years 55 million tossed around and I think he'll go a lot higher than that, probably closer to 75 million or maybe it's 100 million if they do 7 years. There have been 105 contracts signed by MLB players for $100m or more in history, per Cot's. Seiya Suzuki isn't getting $100m. No, I don't really think so either, nor do I think a team will give him 7 years. 5 sounds about right. I think 55 million would get topped. I think 70 - 75 million might be the figure. Maybe 6 years 80 million? I know Suzuki is a gamble but I find it hard to believe that between the Giants, Padres, Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, etc - that somebody won't bid well beyond the 5 years 55 million figures I've seen thrown around.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Jan 27, 2022 19:27:29 GMT -5
Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed. Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting). www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/seiya-suzuki-rumors-padres-cubs-giants-mariners-finalists.html
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jan 27, 2022 19:29:45 GMT -5
Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed. Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting). www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/seiya-suzuki-rumors-padres-cubs-giants-mariners-finalists.htmlSo what they're saying is - we have no clue, but we'll throw all the obvious options out there as possibilities.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Jan 27, 2022 19:53:48 GMT -5
I dont get what the location of spring training has to do with anything? That is a month. The season is 6 months, and is not like he will be able to make frequent trips to Japan during the season either way.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 27, 2022 20:31:45 GMT -5
I dont get what the location of spring training has to do with anything? That is a month. The season is 6 months, and is not like he will be able to make frequent trips to Japan during the season either way. A month in Florida surrounded by Floridians
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 27, 2022 20:49:49 GMT -5
I dont get what the location of spring training has to do with anything? That is a month. The season is 6 months, and is not like he will be able to make frequent trips to Japan during the season either way. I took the report as saying that because he's visiting Arizona and not Florida, that might seem to imply that teams there have an advantage in meeting with him, not that having spring training there is a thing he inherently cares about. That said, it's wide open to interpretation. And I'll repeat that this is all just still interpreting the same two reports, not new ones.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 28, 2022 6:07:22 GMT -5
Maybe people don't know but, it snows in Japan.
It also should be noted that the majority of flights to Asia go west. The majority of flights from Asia also go west. That means there's actually little difference in which coast a Japanese player is likely to want.
In Asia, amongst the everyday people, the two most known American cities are NY and LA, in that order.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 28, 2022 6:44:12 GMT -5
He is coming to Boston. He is coming to Boston. He is coming to Boston.
Just doing my part with mental telepathy.
In all seriousness in regards to a contract to beat out other teams. Throw incentives in that pay him if he is really good and even more if he is great. He has been so successful thus far in his career I would think he would want to bet on himself to earn it.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2022 12:29:13 GMT -5
Maybe people don't know but, it snows in Japan. It also should be noted that the majority of flights to Asia go west. The majority of flights from Asia also go west. That means there's actually little difference in which coast a Japanese player is likely to want. In Asia, amongst the everyday people, the two most known American cities are NY and LA, in that order. I think "how far is it from Tokyo" is the most overrated factor when we're talking about the signing of Japanese players. It's Tokyo! It's really far from everywhere in the US! And what difference does a couple of hours flying time make, anyway? It's not like he's commuting back home for the weekends. It's like two round trips a year or something, right? (Those west coast teams are a little closer to Japan, but also, guess which teams spend the most time on planes during the season, especially Seattle? So if that were really the concern...)
We never do this with any other free agents (other than the handful of late-career veterans who want to be closer to their families). We understand that 90% will sign with whatever team gives them the most money, and in the case of the other 10% it's due to factors that would be irrelevant to a Japanese player, like signing with the team they already play for, or in a city where they have family.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 28, 2022 13:38:17 GMT -5
Maybe people don't know but, it snows in Japan. It also should be noted that the majority of flights to Asia go west. The majority of flights from Asia also go west. That means there's actually little difference in which coast a Japanese player is likely to want. In Asia, amongst the everyday people, the two most known American cities are NY and LA, in that order. I think "how far is it from Tokyo" is the most overrated factor when we're talking about the signing of Japanese players. It's Tokyo! It's really far from everywhere in the US! And what difference does a couple of hours flying time make, anyway? It's not like he's commuting back home for the weekends. It's like two round trips a year or something, right? (Those west coast teams are a little closer to Japan, but also, guess which teams spend the most time on planes during the season, especially Seattle? So if that were really the concern...)
We never do this with any other free agents (other than the handful of late-career veterans who want to be closer to their families). We understand that 90% will sign with whatever team gives them the most money, and in the case of the other 10% it's due to factors that would be irrelevant to a Japanese player, like signing with the team they already play for, or in a city where they have family.
It's more for their family so they can travel back and forth
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Jan 28, 2022 14:46:27 GMT -5
I thought that the west coast was typically talked about as a "plus" for Japanese free agents because west coast cities typically have more Japanese people living there - Seattle, San Francisco, and LA being examples. But yeah, probably about the money when it comes down to it, you'd have to think.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,720
|
Post by gerry on Jan 28, 2022 17:20:03 GMT -5
This is likely a valid point. All west coast cities have large Asian-American populations, including Japanese. LA’s Little Tokyo is a quick hop from Dodger Stadium. Though some of the restaurants, bars and shops cater to tourists, many cater to native Japanese. Much of the second and third generation have moved East to towns with large native concentrations along the I-10. So the Japanese community is both large, spread out, close to Dodger Stadium (and about a five hour drive to Phoenix) and remains a vibrant and supportive.
Similar scenarios exist for San Francisco, Seattle and, to a lesser extent San Diego. For what it’s worth, Japanese living in west coast cities can enjoy some of the freshest, most delicious sushi and sashimi in the world. The good news is that the same can be said in the maritime towns of Greater Boston each with smaller but strong Japanese communities.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2022 17:29:45 GMT -5
Does anyone ever talk about Dominican or Venezuelan or Mexican players wanting to play in cities with more immigrants from their home countries? Do we ever assume the Marlins have an inside track on signing Cubans?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 28, 2022 17:53:38 GMT -5
Does anyone ever talk about Dominican or Venezuelan or Mexican players wanting to play in cities with more immigrants from their home countries? Do we ever assume the Marlins have an inside track on signing Cubans? If the Marlins were good and spent money then yes, I bet they would have a slight advantage in signing Cubans. Dominican and Venezuelan players sign in their teens before they have families and spend their first year plus as pros in the Dominican. It's a very different proposition for a 26yo adult with a family than a 15yo subject to an IFA cap.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 28, 2022 17:56:11 GMT -5
Does anyone ever talk about Dominican or Venezuelan or Mexican players wanting to play in cities with more immigrants from their home countries? Do we ever assume the Marlins have an inside track on signing Cubans? Maybe to a lesser degree, but no, not too much. I know the Padres are always really heavily in on Mexican youth in the international market and tend to sign more Mexican players (and often the higher rated players) relative to the rest of the league. For example, they've reportedly signed 5 players out of Mexico this period according to the BA tracker, including the highest rated in Rosman Verdugo. In contrast, no other team has signed more than two and the majority signed no players out of Mexico. This isn't unique to this year either. Its also quite different comparing the trajectory of 16-17 year olds, most of which will never make it to the ultimate MLB city, to Japanese players who will immediately begin with their MLB team. Edit -- in line with what Chris said above.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2022 18:07:08 GMT -5
Does anyone ever talk about Dominican or Venezuelan or Mexican players wanting to play in cities with more immigrants from their home countries? Do we ever assume the Marlins have an inside track on signing Cubans? If the Marlins were good and spent money then yes, I bet they would have a slight advantage in signing Cubans. Dominican and Venezuelan players sign in their teens before they have families and spend their first year plus as pros in the Dominican. It's a very different proposition for a 26yo adult with a family than a 15yo subject to an IFA cap. Yes, but those players eventually become major league free agents. Has "size of local Puerto Rican population" been mentioned even once in regards to where Correa will sign?
I'll grant that "cultural fit with city where the team is based" may be a secondary factor for some players, but when it comes to Japanese guys it's treated like it's the main issue, and I don't get why that is. I think it might just be that the opacity of the process lends itself to wild speculation, and it's one of the few things we have to grasp onto. But that doesn't make it meaningful.
ADD: By my rough count based on this list, about 21 of 63 Japanese players originally signed with west coast teams (33%). Whereas west coast teams make up 6 of 30 MLB team (20%). So there could be a slight preference on the part of the players. On the other hand, it could be a slight preference on the part of the teams, who might be interested in cultivating a Japanese/Japanese-American fan base.
Incidentally, the Red Sox have signed 5 of those 63 (8%), also a disproportionately high number. If you were going by nothing other than history, in fact, you'd predict that Seiya would sign in San Diego, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, or Boston.
|
|
|