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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 28, 2022 18:13:49 GMT -5
Didn’t make my point. Community is important, including those which have a common culture, language, foods, entertainment, etc. Home away from home, like American ex pats living abroad, historic Southie, North End, Lowell, New Bedford, etc.
However, I would hope his choice is made on the incredible benefits of playing a strong RF at Fenway, especially with that arm; how Fenway fits his swing; how supportive is the city, fan base and the owners; how truly beautiful and culturally rich and diverse is historic New England; how he could be a key player in bringing this team to yet another WS; how Koji, Daisuke, Oki and others thrived here. All that with a multi- million $ contract. I am biased, but I would choose the Sox. I would be so happy if Suzuki does too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 28, 2022 19:10:34 GMT -5
If the Marlins were good and spent money then yes, I bet they would have a slight advantage in signing Cubans. Dominican and Venezuelan players sign in their teens before they have families and spend their first year plus as pros in the Dominican. It's a very different proposition for a 26yo adult with a family than a 15yo subject to an IFA cap. Yes, but those players eventually become major league free agents. Has "size of local Puerto Rican population" been mentioned even once in regards to where Correa will sign? I'll grant that "cultural fit with city where the team is based" may be a secondary factor for some players, but when it comes to Japanese guys it's treated like it's the main issue, and I don't get why that is. I think it might just be that the opacity of the process lends itself to wild speculation, and it's one of the few things we have to grasp onto. But that doesn't make it meaningful. ADD: By my rough count based on this list, about 21 of 63 Japanese players originally signed with west coast teams (33%). Whereas west coast teams make up 6 of 30 MLB team (20%). So there could be a slight preference on the part of the players. On the other hand, it could be a slight preference on the part of the teams, who might be interested in cultivating a Japanese/Japanese-American fan base. Incidentally, the Red Sox have signed 5 of those 63 (8%), also a disproportionately high number. If you were going by nothing other than history, in fact, you'd predict that Seiya would sign in San Diego, LA, San Francisco, Seattle, New York, or Boston.
Recall that the old posting system removed the choice from the player's hands. You're going to have to narrow it to the players who were able to sign where they wanted. Once a player has spent significant time in the US, I figure they're more used to the culture. It's new MLB players who might gravitate to certain locales. That said, let's face it, money talks.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2022 20:04:28 GMT -5
Oh right, forgot about how the posting process worked. So looks even more to be the case that west coast teams (+ Boston and New York) prefer Japanese players, rather than vice versa.
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Post by jaffinator on Jan 29, 2022 1:09:41 GMT -5
I would think that the closest comparable to Japanese free agents is Cuban defectors, in terms of occasionally coming over when older and more established, though it seems like Cubans have been able to make it over younger. Japanese free agents, however, might feel slightly more isolated, given the prevalence of other Spanish speaking players. That said, I don't recall too many Cuban players specifically signing for Miami for instance. Though I do remember that when the Victor Victor brothers signed for the Marlins they cited the community there as a reason why, but that's an easy thing to say after they've already paid you both big money.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 29, 2022 2:36:49 GMT -5
Oh right, forgot about how the posting process worked. So looks even more to be the case that west coast teams (+ Boston and New York) prefer Japanese players, rather than vice versa. I think there's some truth that those teams choose to invest more in Japanese players, partially due to growing their brand in Japan, partially because they have large budgets and partially because they feel they can sign the player. I'm sure the Marlins would love to sign Suzuki, but it's not worth them investing the time and money in pursuing him unless they think they have a shot. It shouldn't be understated how important it is to be around people who speak your language. Less than 30% of Japanese people speak English to some degree and fluency is in the low single digits. So unlike a young central/Caribbean/South American native who has received English lessons (from their clubs), a Japanese player has to concern themselves with how to get by in every day life. Nobody wants to go to a store/restaurant/movie where they can't understand the signage and nobody understands them (maybe fun when you're a tourist, but not in everyday life). The timezones are a very important difference between the east and west coast. I used to work with businesses in East Asia (I'm on the west coast) and I would regularly have calls with them at the end of the day, which would be their beginning of the work day. But when I worked with companies in Bangladesh (same time difference as tokyo-to-Boston) and India, it was always a hassle as either I was having a very late meeting or they were up at dawn just to speak with me - this greatly impacted our ability to do business. This affects players because if they want to speak to their families before a game, they can generally do it when on the west coast with ease, but on the east coast, the player will usually be on his way to (or at) the ballpark as their family/friends are just getting up. And after the game their family/friends will be at work/school. It can be done, but it's more complicated. All of that said, these are generalizations to note that West coast cities are simply easier for Japanese (or Korean) players, however every person is different. Maybe Suzuki will simply take the largest offer regardless of club; maybe he loves the nightlife of New York; or maybe between a fellow countryman's salesmanship and Xander's swing he's shipping up to Boston. Hopefully we find out soon.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 3, 2022 17:05:13 GMT -5
With all the BS developments with the CBA and federal mediation, I'm not even sure it makes sense for him to come over this season anymore. He'll have no time to get acclimated, his posting period may just be getting done by the time done in the middle of a rushed and shortened spring training. Such a frustrating situation, and it'd be unreasonable to expect him to flourish in year 1.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 3, 2022 17:17:52 GMT -5
I was curious so I looked up the posting/international free agent rules.
Players from Japan's top league -- Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) -- who do not have the requisite nine years of professional experience to gain international free agency can request to be "posted" for Major League clubs.
I then took a look at Suzuki's baseball reference page and see he played in the jpwl and the jpcl in 2013 when he was 18. I dont know much about the Japanese leagues or if he was still under contract with his Japanese league team but if not. It seems he could sign a 1 year deal, play out this year in japan and not have to wait for the lockout to end then come over on his own next season rather than deal with the posting? He obviously has a market either way but I would think it'd help him make a little more money if a team didn't have to pay the posting fee?
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 15, 2022 20:06:59 GMT -5
“New profile image”
Dude has a good sense of humor
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 16, 2022 7:30:32 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 16, 2022 7:38:05 GMT -5
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Mar 16, 2022 7:40:35 GMT -5
Who could have predicted that, I certainly wouldn’t have given the Cubs a shred of a chance.
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Post by semperfisox on Mar 16, 2022 7:45:50 GMT -5
Damnit I wanted Suzuki
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 16, 2022 7:47:48 GMT -5
Well so much for the warm weather theory, that's a bummer.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 16, 2022 8:05:45 GMT -5
Well that sucks
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 16, 2022 8:12:41 GMT -5
I would have gone 5-75 but I am just a fanboy dummy. Very very disappointed.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2022 8:21:44 GMT -5
Great. The Sox offseason starts with the Sox losing out on E-Rod on a reasonable contract that wouldn't have broken the bank.
Now they lose out on the one player that really truly needed.....on a highly affordable contract. Really sucks. I don't need to see the Sox shower $350 million on Correa. I would have been happy with mid level contracts for guys like E-Rod and Suzuki. I really don't know what their plan is to improve the team.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,002
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Post by jimoh on Mar 16, 2022 8:26:20 GMT -5
I would have gone 5-75 but I am just a fanboy dummy. Very very disappointed. Dave Cameron on Rusney Castillo: "If he’s somewhere between Davis and Victorino (career ISO of .154, wRC+ of 106), and he can actually play center field, then [Rusney Castillo] should project as something close to a +3 WAR player, depending on how good of a defender he is and whether he can add any value on the bases. The six years will likely cover his age-28 through age-33 seasons, so even with some drop-off in value at the end of the deal, projecting something like +15 WAR from Castillo over the next six years doesn’t seem unreasonable. That would put this price at around $5 million per win, and there’s no draft pick tax for signing Castillo like there would be for a similar Major League free agent." blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-sign-rusney-castillo/
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Post by taiwansox on Mar 16, 2022 8:50:40 GMT -5
We’re going to see pretty quickly if the high velo and plus breaking balls are going to be a problem for Suzuki. Same worries as Abreu coming out of Cuba, but Suzuki looks like he has more bat speed. At least he’s not going to the MFY.
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Post by rico6 on Mar 16, 2022 9:19:01 GMT -5
Great. The Sox offseason starts with the Sox losing out on E-Rod on a reasonable contract that wouldn't have broken the bank. Now they lose out on the one player that really truly needed.....on a highly affordable contract. Really sucks. I don't need to see the Sox shower $350 million on Correa. I would have been happy with mid level contracts for guys like E-Rod and Suzuki. I really don't know what their plan is to improve the team.Short term contracts and continue to pickup potential prospects for the farm. I don't seem Bloom laying out long term money for Correa or Freeman. Similar to what he did in picking up Renfroe. Maybe a Myers trade, Pham etc...
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Post by Manuel De Moya on Mar 16, 2022 9:22:27 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Mar 16, 2022 9:32:52 GMT -5
Great. The Sox offseason starts with the Sox losing out on E-Rod on a reasonable contract that wouldn't have broken the bank. Now they lose out on the one player that really truly needed.....on a highly affordable contract. Really sucks. I don't need to see the Sox shower $350 million on Correa. I would have been happy with mid level contracts for guys like E-Rod and Suzuki. I really don't know what their plan is to improve the team.Short term contracts and continue to pickup potential prospects for the farm. I don't seem Bloom laying out long term money for Correa or Freeman. Similar to what he did in picking up Renfroe. Maybe a Myers trade, Pham etc... Pham? The question was how to *improve* the team…
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Mar 16, 2022 9:33:29 GMT -5
5 years/$85M and he got a full no trade clause.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Mar 16, 2022 9:39:01 GMT -5
5 years/$85M and he got a full no trade clause. Hmm...would you rather have Suzuki or JBJ and 2 solid prospects? JBJs money could have been used for Suzuki. Long term approach to building. Not saying its right or wrong but they have a plan for him. Maybe they were never really in the sweepstakes at all after making that trade with Milwaukee. This is an organization that wants to keep flexibility.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2022 9:42:14 GMT -5
5 years/$85M and he got a full no trade clause. That's pretty much what I thought he'd get. I think some others said he doesn't project for more than 5 year 55 milion but I figured it might go as high as 85 million. That said, I wish it was the Red Sox making this move. I think he will transition well and become a solid regular.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 16, 2022 9:47:45 GMT -5
Great. The Sox offseason starts with the Sox losing out on E-Rod on a reasonable contract that wouldn't have broken the bank. Now they lose out on the one player that really truly needed.....on a highly affordable contract. Really sucks. I don't need to see the Sox shower $350 million on Correa. I would have been happy with mid level contracts for guys like E-Rod and Suzuki. I really don't know what their plan is to improve the team.Short term contracts and continue to pickup potential prospects for the farm. I don't seem Bloom laying out long term money for Correa or Freeman. Similar to what he did in picking up Renfroe. Maybe a Myers trade, Pham etc... I agree. I think that's a recipe for 4th place and maybe the 3rd wild card. Other teams they're competing with were not passive this offseason. The Sox didn't really keep up. Neither Pham or Myers inspire. They're average ballplayers. And their pitching with Sale out and the bullpen still unsettled in the closer position is questionable at best. Yes, Diekman and Strahm can help and might be astute pickups, but they don't really offset what has gone on around the Red Sox. If the plan is to do very little until the next core is in place I guess I can live with it. Just hope it's sooner than later because I don't see Yorke and Mayer helping until 2025 and beyond the top 3 of the Sox farm system, it's improving, but it's not where it needs to be yet. I just thought that they'd spend and work on improving a team that overachieved last season, but it really hasn't happened yet. And getting Pham or Myers isn't really going to change that.
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