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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 3, 2022 1:13:44 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 3, 2022 2:25:21 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides. 20 mail for inflation is about 80M short
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 3, 2022 6:25:12 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides. 20 mail for inflation is about 80M short If you’re paying Devers 42.5 million a year you’re insane.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2022 8:37:16 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides. 20 mail for inflation is about 80M short They didn't raise the CBT by 40%; that's the relevant metric.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 18, 2022 18:47:50 GMT -5
According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter. Devers aimed much higher, convinced in his ability to stay at third for the immediate future (an outlook that has been validated by his solid glove work this year) while making the case that his offense would make him immensely valuable even if he eventually moves to first or DH. The canyon-sized gap between the sides — Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it was in excess of $100 million — made clear that there was little common ground. www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox-future/
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 18, 2022 18:49:45 GMT -5
If they seriously offer him $20 mill a year I am not going to be very happy with Chaim.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 18, 2022 19:12:53 GMT -5
According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter. Devers aimed much higher, convinced in his ability to stay at third for the immediate future (an outlook that has been validated by his solid glove work this year) while making the case that his offense would make him immensely valuable even if he eventually moves to first or DH. The canyon-sized gap between the sides — Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it was in excess of $100 million — made clear that there was little common ground. www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox-future/A: this was before the season. B: it was a framework starting offer i bet. C: this offseason they will have the payroll room to offer more
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Post by notnickyorke on Jul 18, 2022 19:32:17 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides. Dever's best season wouldn't be in Arenado's top 5 best seasons. Arenado is a vastly superior player. WAR makes that pretty clear, but also look at gold gloves, silver sluggers, and top 10 in MVP voting. As much as it pains me to say, people are over-rating Devers. He just hasn't accomplished what the players who have gotten $300 million contracts. Still hope they can work out a deal, but for around 200 million. If he wants 300 million, he should be some other teams mistake.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2022 19:45:05 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides. Dever's best season wouldn't be in Arenado's top 5 best seasons. Arenado is a vastly superior player. WAR makes that pretty clear, but also look at gold gloves, silver sluggers, and top 10 in MVP voting. As much as it pains me to say, people are over-rating Devers. He just hasn't accomplished what the players who have gotten $300 million contracts. Still hope they can work out a deal, but for around 200 million. If he wants 300 million, he should be some other teams mistake. Are we?
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Post by notnickyorke on Jul 18, 2022 19:59:07 GMT -5
Dever's best season wouldn't be in Arenado's top 5 best seasons. Arenado is a vastly superior player. WAR makes that pretty clear, but also look at gold gloves, silver sluggers, and top 10 in MVP voting. As much as it pains me to say, people are over-rating Devers. He just hasn't accomplished what the players who have gotten $300 million contracts. Still hope they can work out a deal, but for around 200 million. If he wants 300 million, he should be some other teams mistake. Are we? For saying that an admittedly really good player with 3 seasons above 2 War is basically the same as a player 8 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers, 5 top-10 mvp placments, with 35 career WAR advantage? Yes, you are over-rating devers.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2022 20:04:26 GMT -5
Are we? For saying that an admittedly really good player with 3 seasons above 2 War is basically the same as a player 8 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers, 5 top-10 mvp placments, with 35 career WAR advantage? Yes, you are over-rating devers. Devers is on pace to obliterate Arenado's WAR career high total of 5.9 to that point in their age 25 seasons. And we're talking about getting ages 26-34 for Devers as opposed to ages 29-37 for Arenado. This is Arenado's by far best hitting season and compare those xwOBAs.
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Post by notnickyorke on Jul 18, 2022 20:31:06 GMT -5
For saying that an admittedly really good player with 3 seasons above 2 War is basically the same as a player 8 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers, 5 top-10 mvp placments, with 35 career WAR advantage? Yes, you are over-rating devers. Devers is on pace to obliterate Arenado's WAR career high total of 5.9 to that point in their age 25 seasons. And we're talking about getting ages 26-34 for Devers as opposed to ages 29-37 for Arenado. This is Arenado's by far best hitting season and compare those xwOBAs. There is value in getting a players younger years, and Devers is catching up in career WAR by age(with 2 additional seasons becausehe started younger). My point is they are not good comps. If you look at there first 5-6 seasons in the majors before they signed an extension or are about to be able to, it does not compare favorably to Devers at all. When Arenado got to the end or close to the end of his 6 years of team control he was a more accomplished and valuable player. Granted this looks like Devers best season and looks likely to add some hardware this year. This is Devers 6th season in the majors and it looks like he will get just his 2nd season over 5 WAR. At the end of Arenado's 6th year he was coming off 4 straight years of doing that.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2022 20:36:44 GMT -5
Devers is on pace to obliterate Arenado's WAR career high total of 5.9 to that point in their age 25 seasons. And we're talking about getting ages 26-34 for Devers as opposed to ages 29-37 for Arenado. This is Arenado's by far best hitting season and compare those xwOBAs. There is value in getting a players younger years, and Devers is catching up in career WAR by age(with 2 additional seasons becausehe started younger). My point is they are not good comps. If you look at there first 5-6 seasons in the majors before they signed an extension or are about to be able to, it does not compare favorably to Devers at all. When Arenado got to the end or close to the end of his 6 years of team control he was a more accomplished and valuable player. Granted this looks like Devers best season and looks likely to add some hardware this year. This is Devers 6th season in the majors and it looks like he will get just his 2nd season over 5 WAR. At the end of Arenado's 6th year he was coming off 4 straight years of doing that. I won't punish Devers for making it to MLB at a younger age. Imagine if this were his rookie year like Aaron Judge's.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 18, 2022 20:42:06 GMT -5
Devers is on pace to obliterate Arenado's WAR career high total of 5.9 to that point in their age 25 seasons. And we're talking about getting ages 26-34 for Devers as opposed to ages 29-37 for Arenado. This is Arenado's by far best hitting season and compare those xwOBAs. There is value in getting a players younger years, and Devers is catching up in career WAR by age(with 2 additional seasons becausehe started younger). My point is they are not good comps. If you look at there first 5-6 seasons in the majors before they signed an extension or are about to be able to, it does not compare favorably to Devers at all. When Arenado got to the end or close to the end of his 6 years of team control he was a more accomplished and valuable player. Granted this looks like Devers best season and looks likely to add some hardware this year. This is Devers 6th season in the majors and it looks like he will get just his 2nd season over 5 WAR. At the end of Arenado's 6th year he was coming off 4 straight years of doing that. Devers has had less success during his early years, but he was 2 years younger as a rookie. If you look at their age 22-25 seasons, Devers has slightly outperformed Arenado. Using ZiPs and fWAR, Arenado is expected to be worth 41.8 WAR from his age 26 season through his age 35 season. Using the same methods, Devers is expected to be worth 40.9 WAR for those same seasons. So Arenado had a longer track record of success, but Devers was slightly better at a younger age. Arenado was more of a sure-thing to remain at 3B for the length of his contract, but Devers will receive his contract, at once again, a younger age. The expected performance for Arenado is only slightly higher, and those projections were made prior to the season, so I would expect Devers to have matched them by now. I certainly hope the Red Sox can get Devers to accept a contract under 10/300, but using Arenado as a comp, I can understand why his camp is holding-out. Note: I tripled Arenado's fWAR from 2020 and projected -0.5 changes YoY for any years which haven't been projected yet by ZiPs and are past their age-31 seasons.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 18, 2022 20:51:36 GMT -5
Dever's best season wouldn't be in Arenado's top 5 best seasons. Arenado is a vastly superior player. WAR makes that pretty clear, but also look at gold gloves, silver sluggers, and top 10 in MVP voting. As much as it pains me to say, people are over-rating Devers. He just hasn't accomplished what the players who have gotten $300 million contracts. Still hope they can work out a deal, but for around 200 million. If he wants 300 million, he should be some other teams mistake. Are we? I still love my contract. I don’t even want to think about our team without him.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 18, 2022 21:09:07 GMT -5
Given the year Raffy is having, particularly his defense, I'd be willing to go pretty high on him. As wcsoxfan says, I'd love to hold it below $300M. Perhaps you do that by front-loading money and including the opt-outs. Try 10 years and $280M with opt-outs starting at about age 32.
The thing with Raffy, X, and even Vaz is that they're already here, so re-upping them doesn't increase the payroll by as much as it might seem. If you pay give Raffy an AAV of $28, X an AAV of $25M (six years, $150M) and Vaz two years with an option at an AAV of $9M, you're adding $24M. That eats up the savings from the JDM contract expiring and another $2M. But you still have the Price, Wacha, Hill, KKH, and JBJ contracts coming off.
I'd like to resign Raffy, X, Vaz and Eovaldi, but both sides have to be reasonable. CB has to realize this isn't Tampa and the players have to accept not maxing out.
The RS should be able to sign those guys and keep the payroll under the control as young, inexpensive guys like Casas, Bello, Mata, Walters, Big Winck and maybe even Duran assume meaningful roles. The big savings will come after 2024 when the disastrous Sale contract is up.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 18, 2022 21:10:46 GMT -5
Are we? For saying that an admittedly really good player with 3 seasons above 2 War is basically the same as a player 8 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers, 5 top-10 mvp placments, with 35 career WAR advantage? Yes, you are over-rating devers. Well, Gold Gloves rarely go to the best defensive players at the position or even good ones (COUGHJeterCOUGH). I think 8 years for $250-260m total may get it done now, at the All Star break before he tests the market, maybe with player opt outs in year 6-8. Don’t know of John Henry et al would go for that, but it would be a fair deal all around. However, the Red Sox are their own worst enemy here. They waited too long (they should’ve sealed the deal before the 2021 season at the latest). After they didn’t they cede a lot of initiative to the player. That left him with a clear look at free agency just 3 years away, and he’s only getting better. Fast-forward to the short (Matt Olsen!?) offer this winter and then to the next two weeks. If you’re Rafi, no matter how much you’ve loved Boston, and you see some half-assed sell-off of Xander (Xander - my big brother!), JDM and Eovaldi at the break, it may challenge your belief in this Front Office and ownership group and whether they want to win now or go through another rebuild. He’ll want chances to win it all and those actions will say, “Sure, we think in 2-4 years we’ll be right there.” Not what a guy who’s about to hit his prime wants to hear. After all, he already has one ring and could practically taste another one last year. Now he see you breaking up the band with very little MLB-ready talent at the waiting. Not a good negotiating position. At that point he’ll be more than happy to play his ass off for the rest of 22 and all of 23 and see what teams look like they are win now and for the next few years mode when he hits free agency. There’ll be the Mets, Dodgers, NYY and a couple “Mystery Teams. Where would you want to be? Some guys want the most cash they can get (Grienke, Cano, Kris Bryant) and don’t care where they go. Others want to be in the very top of the pay scale, but will take a fraction (and not a big fraction) less that what he might get in the big open market to be with a team he thinks can win now or very soon (Mookie, Mr. Kate Upton). And then there are the Mets, who’ve done the math and see that the lux tax penalties are little more than an annoyance and near-rounding error if you have the cash and the will. It will remain to be seen which one Rafi picks, but the Red Sox? We’ll see if they fit the profile, make a legit offer, and look to win on Rafi’s timetable.
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Post by soxaddict on Jul 18, 2022 21:58:53 GMT -5
I was just thinking. Devers is pretty much = Arenado. He signed an 8 year 260. I think Devers should take that same contract + 20 mill for inflation. That makes him a free agent at 33. He still could cash in 1 more time and the contract works for both sides. Dever's best season wouldn't be in Arenado's top 5 best seasons. Arenado is a vastly superior player. WAR makes that pretty clear, but also look at gold gloves, silver sluggers, and top 10 in MVP voting. As much as it pains me to say, people are over-rating Devers. He just hasn't accomplished what the players who have gotten $300 million contracts. Still hope they can work out a deal, but for around 200 million. If he wants 300 million, he should be some other teams mistake. With the glove, yes Arenado is superior to Devers. Defensively, Arenado has no equals. However, Devers offense has been much better than Arenado's was at the same age. Note that Devers also has 69 games left this season. Arenado (Age 22-25) 561 G, 2342 PA, 111 HR, 320 R, 376 RBI, 8 SB, .285 AVG, .331 OBP, .520 SLG, wOBA .359, wRC+ 111, WAR 14.8 Devers (Age 22-25) 455 G, 1991 PA, 103 HR, 324 R, 326 RBI, 15 SB, .297 AVG, .355 OBP, .549 SLG, wOBA .378, wRC+ 137, WAR 16.3 At 25 years old, Devers is a top 5 bat in the game. He's the only player in the lineup that teams actually fear. I guarantee Devers will get a $300M+ contract, and it should be the Boston Red Sox signing the check.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 18, 2022 22:21:17 GMT -5
I just had an odd thought that Devers might add value at the end of a long-term deal compared to Arenado by being a DH down the line, as everyone expects him to be (yes, Raffy worked hard on his defense this offseason, and god bless him, but he'll never be a GG finalist, let alone a GG awardee).
As Arenado ages and loses his GG chops, is he a slam-dunk to end his career as a top DH, the way Devers is? I get that DHs are penalized in terms of WAR but there's one in every lineup and there's nothing wrong with having the best one on the planet (as we know well, with DHs being huge parts of four championships).
If Devers continues to get huge value from his bat while Arenado can no longer pay his way with his glove, who's the more valuable player at the end of the contract?
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 18, 2022 23:30:00 GMT -5
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Post by kjkramer on Jul 18, 2022 23:49:50 GMT -5
I would offer Devers the max deal before Aug 2nd and if he declines.... trade him. The sooner you trade him.... the bigger the return. For me.... 10 years max and 300 million max. I am not comfortable with 10 or 300 at all but would do it for him and pray. I doubt 10/300 gets it done so adios. Dont let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya...
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Jul 19, 2022 0:06:59 GMT -5
According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter. Devers aimed much higher, convinced in his ability to stay at third for the immediate future (an outlook that has been validated by his solid glove work this year) while making the case that his offense would make him immensely valuable even if he eventually moves to first or DH. The canyon-sized gap between the sides — Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it was in excess of $100 million — made clear that there was little common ground. www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox-future/$168M… jeez. If they’re not going to pay him, who are they going to pay? Devers is a known quantity, plays well here, and will likely be the team’s only homegrown star after Xander leaves, at least unless/until Casas or Mayer breaks out. He’s also one of the most talented hitters in the game. And even if the last few years of the deal are underwater, is it that big a deal? We won 119 games in 2018 carrying the $40M bloated corpses of Pablo and Hanley, not to mention $31M for David Price. I mean, I get the reticence with his defense, but given his improvements this year, I really hope Henry, Bloom, and co rethink their numbers.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2022 0:13:50 GMT -5
According to a major league source familiar with the talks, the Red Sox identified Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million extension with Atlanta as a basis for discussions — citing the likelihood that Devers would spend much of the contract either at first base or designated hitter. Devers aimed much higher, convinced in his ability to stay at third for the immediate future (an outlook that has been validated by his solid glove work this year) while making the case that his offense would make him immensely valuable even if he eventually moves to first or DH. The canyon-sized gap between the sides — Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it was in excess of $100 million — made clear that there was little common ground. www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/18/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox-future/$168M… jeez. If they’re not going to pay him, who are they going to pay? Devers is a known quantity, plays well here, and will likely be the team’s only homegrown star after Xander leaves, at least unless/until Casas or Mayer breaks out. He’s also one of the most talented hitters in the game. And even if the last few years of the deal are underwater, is it that big a deal? We won 119 games in 2018 carrying the $40M bloated corpses of Pablo and Hanley, not to mention $31M for David Price. I mean, I get the reticence with his defense, but given his improvements this year, I really hope Henry, Bloom, and co rethink their numbers. Again. That was before this season. BEFORE. See the MLBTr Piece above which hints that at the time that was a good starting point then
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Post by costpet on Jul 19, 2022 7:40:52 GMT -5
I'm hearing we should trade Devers before August 2nd. Then we lose Boggy and JD at the end of the season, unless they're traded as well. Then what? Bring up the WooSox regulars and charge Major League ticket prices to watch an AAA team? That won't fly. Devers could easily be one of the best hitters in the league for the next 10 years. 10/300 is affordable considering all the money off the books at the end of the year. You don't lose a top 3 hitter at age 25. Unless management doesn't care.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 19, 2022 7:49:39 GMT -5
I'm hearing we should trade Devers before August 2nd. Then we lose Boggy and JD at the end of the season, unless they're traded as well. Then what? Bring up the WooSox regulars and charge Major League ticket prices to watch an AAA team? That won't fly. Devers could easily be one of the best hitters in the league for the next 10 years. 10/300 is affordable considering all the money off the books at the end of the year. You don't lose a top 3 hitter at age 25. Unless management doesn't care. Fill in the roster with a bunch of short term free agents who aren't a quarter as good as Devers/xandy/jdm and go for the ole 4 quarters is 1 dollar mindset? I'm with you if they lose X trade Devers and to a lesser extent let JDM leave. They don't have the talent in the upper minors to replace that type of production and the free agent market is a crapshoot and doesn't look very good this offseason. If they lose basically their only 3 productive hitters this offseason they may as well just tank for a year or two since what's the point spending money on marginal FAs when you're letting your elite or near elite home grown guys go because you're to cheap or stubborn to pay them when they're worth in terms of dollars and years.
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