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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,024
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2022 12:41:57 GMT -5
FanGraphs is now more or less doing what I've been doing; they're using UZR for defense but substituting Statcast range numbers for UZR's. (I've been averaging UZR and DRS for all numbers besides Range and using Statcast for that.)
Just 12 games, but Devers is 2nd in MLB and first in the AL in 3B defense.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 21, 2022 14:12:30 GMT -5
i’ve never questioned bloom but if you’re going to pay Story 23 mill per year then Devers is worth 40.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 21, 2022 15:53:50 GMT -5
i’ve never questioned bloom but if you’re going to pay Story 23 mill per year then Devers is worth 40. 3B isn't as premium as 2B or SS and Story, in theory, is near elite at the SS position. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 21, 2022 16:31:45 GMT -5
i’ve never questioned bloom but if you’re going to pay Story 23 mill per year then Devers is worth 40. 3B isn't as premium as 2B or SS and Story, in theory, is near elite at the SS position. Defensively. He had a 100 wRC+ last season. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 21, 2022 17:17:29 GMT -5
3B isn't as premium as 2B or SS and Story, in theory, is near elite at the SS position. Defensively. He had a 100 wRC+ last season. I mean, last year wasn't his best season by any metric. He's a career 111 was 118 in 2020 and 122 in 2019. Hopefully the degrading wRC+ wasn't a trend, but it might be and he hasn't proven otherwise in a limited sample. Xander is a career 116, but his '18, '19, '20, '21 and limited sampling of '22 are much higher than Story. |
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 23, 2022 15:28:22 GMT -5
i’ve never questioned bloom but if you’re going to pay Story 23 mill per year then Devers is worth 40. This seems to be simultaneously underrating Story and overrating Devers. Story has racked up bWAR at a much higher rate than Bogaerts for his career. Story even outstripped him for the last four years when Bogie's been really hitting, and this is including Story's likely-injury-related down year last year. Story is worth every penny of his deal. If Devers puts up a normal offensive season along with a 2019-esque defensive performance, sure, I wouldn't hate a Machado deal. $40 million a year is lunacy though. Correa just got a short-term deal worth $35 million a year and he plays elite defense at SS. Correa also has a career 127 wRC+ compared to Devers' 120. Both entered the league at age 20. Correa has had a worse injury history, but this risk is heavily mitigated by the shortness of his current deal. If that player is getting $35 million per year, Devers shouldn't sniff 35, never mind 40. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 24, 2022 2:06:40 GMT -5
i’ve never questioned bloom but if you’re going to pay Story 23 mill per year then Devers is worth 40. This seems to be simultaneously underrating Story and overrating Devers. Story has racked up bWAR at a much higher rate than Bogaerts for his career. Story even outstripped him for the last four years when Bogie's been really hitting, and this is including Story's likely-injury-related down year last year. Story is worth every penny of his deal. If Devers puts up a normal offensive season along with a 2019-esque defensive performance, sure, I wouldn't hate a Machado deal. $40 million a year is lunacy though. Correa just got a short-term deal worth $35 million a year and he plays elite defense at SS. Correa also has a career 127 wRC+ compared to Devers' 120. Both entered the league at age 20. Correa has had a worse injury history, but this risk is heavily mitigated by the shortness of his current deal. If that player is getting $35 million per year, Devers shouldn't sniff 35, never mind 40. I’m just saying, never wanted Story. Don’t want Story over X idc what his “WAR” is. X is proven to be able to handle Boston. Is a champion with us and we should just let him walk because a player has a better career “WAR”. Story isn’t special. You can see that with the naked eye. X on the other hand deserves all the money especially after taking a paycut the last few years and help recruiting other players. I’m from CT and have too many Yankee friends and they all wish they had X and we’re just willing to let him go as a fan base that’s disturbing. Devers is so young, he’s on the up. I’m not saying sign him for 10 years but 32-35 per year at 6 years is worth it. Especially if we can front load it with the thin FA class next year. Most of the top players are ours. Story seems be to on the decline while X has been one of the most consistent players in baseball and Devers is only going to get better. I would pay them both. 6 years max but they are both worth all the money. |
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 24, 2022 10:05:10 GMT -5
This seems to be simultaneously underrating Story and overrating Devers. Story has racked up bWAR at a much higher rate than Bogaerts for his career. Story even outstripped him for the last four years when Bogie's been really hitting, and this is including Story's likely-injury-related down year last year. Story is worth every penny of his deal. If Devers puts up a normal offensive season along with a 2019-esque defensive performance, sure, I wouldn't hate a Machado deal. $40 million a year is lunacy though. Correa just got a short-term deal worth $35 million a year and he plays elite defense at SS. Correa also has a career 127 wRC+ compared to Devers' 120. Both entered the league at age 20. Correa has had a worse injury history, but this risk is heavily mitigated by the shortness of his current deal. If that player is getting $35 million per year, Devers shouldn't sniff 35, never mind 40. I’m just saying, never wanted Story. Don’t want Story over X idc what his “WAR” is. X is proven to be able to handle Boston. Is a champion with us and we should just let him walk because a player has a better career “WAR”. Story isn’t special. You can see that with the naked eye. X on the other hand deserves all the money especially after taking a paycut the last few years and help recruiting other players. I’m from CT and have too many Yankee friends and they all wish they had X and we’re just willing to let him go as a fan base that’s disturbing. Devers is so young, he’s on the up. I’m not saying sign him for 10 years but 32-35 per year at 6 years is worth it. Especially if we can front load it with the thin FA class next year. Most of the top players are ours. Story seems be to on the decline while X has been one of the most consistent players in baseball and Devers is only going to get better. I would pay them both. 6 years max but they are both worth all the money. I'd also happily do 6 years at 32 million AAV for Devers, but I don't think Devers would. Per Passan he wants $300+ million. As for Story, I don't think it's fair to say he's declining while X is consistent. They're the same age, and Story had been very consistent until last season when he was dealing with an arm injury. Even then, Story's down year was 4.2 bWAR. Bogie finished with 4.9. "You can see that with the naked eye" is not great justification given that he hasn't even had 50 PA with the team. The guy had to move his life to Boston on short notice before the season, had like 10 spring training PA, left for the birth of his child, got food poisoning after like a game or two with the team, and has only had about a week after that to get into a rhythm. It's not like he going to have a 70 wRC+ all year. Edit: 6/210 (35 AAV) feels too rich for Devers, especially assuming that extension would buy out his last arb year. 6/192 (32 AAV) feels better. I've said I wouldn't want to go above 28-30 AAV for 8 years (8/224-8/240) for him barring some absurd 2022, and I stand by that. Otherwise the albatross risk scares me more than I'd be happy to have him. |
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2022 12:01:07 GMT -5
This seems to be simultaneously underrating Story and overrating Devers. Story has racked up bWAR at a much higher rate than Bogaerts for his career. Story even outstripped him for the last four years when Bogie's been really hitting, and this is including Story's likely-injury-related down year last year. Story is worth every penny of his deal. If Devers puts up a normal offensive season along with a 2019-esque defensive performance, sure, I wouldn't hate a Machado deal. $40 million a year is lunacy though. Correa just got a short-term deal worth $35 million a year and he plays elite defense at SS. Correa also has a career 127 wRC+ compared to Devers' 120. Both entered the league at age 20. Correa has had a worse injury history, but this risk is heavily mitigated by the shortness of his current deal. If that player is getting $35 million per year, Devers shouldn't sniff 35, never mind 40. I’m just saying, never wanted Story. Don’t want Story over X idc what his “WAR” is. X is proven to be able to handle Boston. Is a champion with us and we should just let him walk because a player has a better career “WAR”. Story isn’t special. You can see that with the naked eye. X on the other hand deserves all the money especially after taking a paycut the last few years and help recruiting other players. I’m from CT and have too many Yankee friends and they all wish they had X and we’re just willing to let him go as a fan base that’s disturbing. Devers is so young, he’s on the up. I’m not saying sign him for 10 years but 32-35 per year at 6 years is worth it. Especially if we can front load it with the thin FA class next year. Most of the top players are ours. Story seems be to on the decline while X has been one of the most consistent players in baseball and Devers is only going to get better. I would pay them both. 6 years max but they are both worth all the money. Well they reportedly offered him $200 million+ so you've already gotten your wish. The problem is that Devers apparently wants something on the order of 10 years and 32-35 per year.
On Xander, personally I would go to Boras and say, "Hey, you know how you just got your guy Correa signed for 3/105 with opt outs? Well if that was good enough for a 27 year old Correa it's surely good enough for a 29 year old Bogaerts so how about it?"
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 24, 2022 14:06:23 GMT -5
I’m just saying, never wanted Story. Don’t want Story over X idc what his “WAR” is. X is proven to be able to handle Boston. Is a champion with us and we should just let him walk because a player has a better career “WAR”. Story isn’t special. You can see that with the naked eye. X on the other hand deserves all the money especially after taking a paycut the last few years and help recruiting other players. I’m from CT and have too many Yankee friends and they all wish they had X and we’re just willing to let him go as a fan base that’s disturbing. Devers is so young, he’s on the up. I’m not saying sign him for 10 years but 32-35 per year at 6 years is worth it. Especially if we can front load it with the thin FA class next year. Most of the top players are ours. Story seems be to on the decline while X has been one of the most consistent players in baseball and Devers is only going to get better. I would pay them both. 6 years max but they are both worth all the money. Well they reportedly offered him $200 million+ so you've already gotten your wish. The problem is that Devers apparently wants something on the order of 10 years and 32-35 per year. On Xander, personally I would go to Boras and say, "Hey, you know how you just got your guy Correa signed for 3/105 with opt outs? Well if that was good enough for a 27 year old Correa it's surely good enough for a 29 year old Bogaerts so how about it?"
Devers deserves 10 years. He's 25. In the 10th year I'm willing to bet his AAV will be equitable to that of an elite DH. I'm also assuming that one year is including at least next year when he's under contract anyways. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2022 15:44:57 GMT -5
His defense looks much improved, this means I would do 10/300. Not my money and I don’t feel that’s irresponsible given his age. If he can stick at 3B going forward for at least 5 more years that changes everything about the way I value him
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2022 18:46:24 GMT -5
His defense looks much improved, this means I would do 10/300. Not my money and I don’t feel that’s irresponsible given his age. If he can stick at 3B going forward for at least 5 more years that changes everything about the way I value him As a fan, I'd be thrilled if he signed tomorrow for 10/300. But I think he's only worth that if he reaches another level. He's never had higher than a 134 wRC+, and his current "Vladimir Guerrero Sr. but with far lesser contact skills" approach puts a ceiling on his offensive potential. Maybe the approach improves; maybe the defense keeps looking good (though I'm not coming to any definitive conclusions about it in late April). But if I were a GM I wouldn't dole out a third of a billion dollars on hypotheticals. |
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 25, 2022 12:42:48 GMT -5
I enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts and opinions on what Devers should get, will get, or should be offered. I’m generally pretty optimistic about most things related to the Red Sox. But I consider this is Rafael Devers’ last season with the Red Sox.
He’s rejected the team’s offer. He’s indicated he doesn’t want to negotiate during the season. After this season he’ll only have one season left before he’s a free agent. If he’s that close to free agency, there is even less reason for him to sign rather than test the market. The Sox would need to pay the market rate or better in order to deter him from reaching free agency. They have shown little to indicate they intend to do that. They will need to trade him rather than risk loosing him for nothing.
See Betts, Mookie.
I know some think it isn’t a valid comparison because Mookie never said he wanted to stay in Boston and apparently Devers has expressed that he would like to do so. I’m not persuaded that there is much difference. None of us know the particulars of the offer Sox made except that it was so low that Devers didn’t even make a counter. I never understand why these negotiations happen so slowly. They really are fairly simple. It’s just some math and sometimes a creative clause or two. The fact that the team didn’t lock him up long ago is puzzling. You had time to trade for Jackie Bradley before the lockout but we’re too occupied by that to do some math with Rafael Devers’ agent? Now he’s so put off by your offer he’s said please leave me alone until October/November.
I’d like to root for him until he’s inducted into the Red Sox hall of fame one day. I don’t think that is happening.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 25, 2022 13:43:51 GMT -5
I enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts and opinions on what Devers should get, will get, or should be offered. I’m generally pretty optimistic about most things related to the Red Sox. But I consider this is Rafael Devers’ last season with the Red Sox. He’s rejected the team’s offer. He’s indicated he doesn’t want to negotiate during the season. After this season he’ll only have one season left before he’s a free agent. If he’s that close to free agency, there is even less reason for him to sign rather than test the market. The Sox would need to pay the market rate or better in order to deter him from reaching free agency. They have shown little to indicate they intend to do that. They will need to trade him rather than risk loosing him for nothing. See Betts, Mookie. I know some think it isn’t a valid comparison because Mookie never said he wanted to stay in Boston and apparently Devers has expressed that he would like to do so. I’m not persuaded that there is much difference. None of us know the particulars of the offer Sox made except that it was so low that Devers didn’t even make a counter. I never understand why these negotiations happen so slowly. They really are fairly simple. It’s just some math and sometimes a creative clause or two. The fact that the team didn’t lock him up long ago is puzzling. You had time to trade for Jackie Bradley before the lockout but we’re too occupied by that to do some math with Rafael Devers’ agent? Now he’s so put off by your offer he’s said please leave me alone until October/November.
I’d like to root for him until he’s inducted into the Red Sox hall of fame one day. I don’t think that is happening. Well, again, they offered him at least $200 million, as reported by Jeff Passan. Maybe he felt "put off" by that offer, but it sounds like it was pretty serious. (Unlike, say, what they reportedly offered Bogaerts...) |
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Post by Guidas on Apr 25, 2022 14:28:20 GMT -5
As much as I have greatly admired and appreciated this ownership group (well, other than Lucchino when he was here - WE'D STILL HAVE THEO AND TERRY!) it's discussions like these that make we wish the Sox were Elon Musk's favorite team and pissed him off.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 25, 2022 15:22:39 GMT -5
I enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts and opinions on what Devers should get, will get, or should be offered. I’m generally pretty optimistic about most things related to the Red Sox. But I consider this is Rafael Devers’ last season with the Red Sox. He’s rejected the team’s offer. He’s indicated he doesn’t want to negotiate during the season. After this season he’ll only have one season left before he’s a free agent. If he’s that close to free agency, there is even less reason for him to sign rather than test the market. The Sox would need to pay the market rate or better in order to deter him from reaching free agency. They have shown little to indicate they intend to do that. They will need to trade him rather than risk loosing him for nothing. See Betts, Mookie. I know some think it isn’t a valid comparison because Mookie never said he wanted to stay in Boston and apparently Devers has expressed that he would like to do so. I’m not persuaded that there is much difference. None of us know the particulars of the offer Sox made except that it was so low that Devers didn’t even make a counter. I never understand why these negotiations happen so slowly. They really are fairly simple. It’s just some math and sometimes a creative clause or two. The fact that the team didn’t lock him up long ago is puzzling. You had time to trade for Jackie Bradley before the lockout but we’re too occupied by that to do some math with Rafael Devers’ agent? Now he’s so put off by your offer he’s said please leave me alone until October/November.
I’d like to root for him until he’s inducted into the Red Sox hall of fame one day. I don’t think that is happening. Well, again, they offered him at least $200 million, as reported by Jeff Passan. Maybe he felt "put off" by that offer, but it sounds like it was pretty serious. (Unlike, say, what they reportedly offered Bogaerts...) Or Jon Lester. *reaching back* |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 15, 2022 11:24:13 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+
Pull 92 137 139 101
Straight 87 138 174 126
Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 15, 2022 12:06:10 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+
Pull 92 137 139 101
Straight 87 138 174 126
Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
Not sure I quite understand this. Is the conclusion:
a) He's been real lucky on opposite field fly balls? b) He has a real skill when it comes to opposite field fly balls? c) He plays in Fenway and for both his sake and the Red Sox' he must never be allowed to leave?
Perhaps all three?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 15, 2022 12:53:07 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+
Pull 92 137 139 101
Straight 87 138 174 126
Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
I'm not saying it isn't a useful stat or anything, but do baseball people just invent a new stat every day? Karma+ is so hilarious sounding. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 15, 2022 19:00:49 GMT -5
Rising by the game
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2022 20:16:54 GMT -5
MVP might help his extension negotiations.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2022 10:36:33 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+
Pull 92 137 139 101
Straight 87 138 174 126
Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
I'm not saying it isn't a useful stat or anything, but do baseball people just invent a new stat every day? Karma+ is so hilarious sounding. I could be wrong but I think that's an Eric creation |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2022 12:22:31 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+
Pull 92 137 139 101
Straight 87 138 174 126
Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
Not sure I quite understand this. Is the conclusion:
a) He's been real lucky on opposite field fly balls? b) He has a real skill when it comes to opposite field fly balls? c) He plays in Fenway and for both his sake and the Red Sox' he must never be allowed to leave?
Perhaps all three?
As is almost always the case when a difference is this extreme, a combo of luck and skill. But you've seen the skill. That 0-2 homer off of Sewald in Seattle, where C Luis Torrens set up high and outside and flashed his glove, and Sewald executed the waste / chase pitch close to perfectly, just a little further outside than asked for, and Devers (very likely looking for that pitch) hit it out ...... that was something else. Sewald's reaction was priceless.
In terms of karma, outside pitches, hit correctly, are going to go be hit much closer to the line than pitches in the zone, and much likelier to be homers than deep fly ball outs.
So ... all of MLB is hitting .170 and slugging .387 on fly balls to the opposite field. Devers is 11 / 22 with 5 2B and 5 HR. That's a 1.409 SA. All 5 homers and 3 of the 5 doubles have been barrels (two others were bloops). Devers' Barrel % of .227 is somewhat higher than MLB's .100. The BA on oppo-field fly ball barrels is .641. Devers is 8/8, and the odds of that being random are 1 in 35. He may be lucky that he's not 7 for 8.
Devers is .154 / .231 on 13 weakly-hit balls; his expectation based on his xBA and xSA, and the league differentials, is .131 / .168. That's 0.3 extra hits and .82 extra TB. Which is to say, his luck on weakly-hit balls is that one of his cheap doubles should have been a single.
Doing the same thing for barrels and solid contact ... to begin with, Devers has 8 barrels in 9 solid-or better; the league percentage is .544.
And solid+ flyballs to the opposite field are disproportionately hit within a fielder's reach. The MLB xBA is .559; the actual is .454. For SA, it's 1.940 expected vs. 1.444 actual.
Devers' 1 merely solid contact was a 2B; he had a .460 xBA versus MLB average .342, and 1.793 xSA vs. 1.081. Much harder than the average, and no luck at all for TB.
The three barreled doubles have roughly the same xBA and xSA as all barreled doubles to the oppo; .775 vs. .733 BA, but 2.456 vs. 2.566 SA.
Now, his 5 barreled homers have a lower xBA and xSA then the league; the league is .805 / 3.018 and Devers is .707 / 2.649. But how much of that is luck, and how much a) the ability to hit outside pitches close to the line hard enough t go out of the average park, and b) the ability to knowingly take advantage of Fenway?
Of the 5 homers, the one on May 24 in Chicago was a no-doubter, 106.0, 390'. The other four, in descending order of apparent possible cheapness, are:
May 14 in Texas. 101.7, 359. May 21 vs. Sea (2nd of 2 HR, 5th inning). 102.1, 386, but a 34.0 launch angle where all the others are 26 to 28, the absolute optimum. That's tied with the one off of Sewals in Sea, which was pure skill. June 5 in Oakland. 97.7, 351.
If someone wants to hunt down the video of the three homers from 5/14, 5/21, and 6/5, that would be cool. In the meantime, I'll try to figure out how to get the "homers in X parks) number for individual homers from Statcast. (If anyone knows how, speak up!)
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 16, 2022 20:07:44 GMT -5
Not sure I quite understand this. Is the conclusion:
a) He's been real lucky on opposite field fly balls? b) He has a real skill when it comes to opposite field fly balls? c) He plays in Fenway and for both his sake and the Red Sox' he must never be allowed to leave?
Perhaps all three?
As is almost always the case when a difference is this extreme, a combo of luck and skill. But you've seen the skill. That 0-2 homer off of Sewald in Seattle, where C Luis Torrens set up high and outside and flashed his glove, and Sewald executed the waste / chase pitch close to perfectly, just a little further outside than asked for, and Devers (very likely looking for that pitch) hit it out ...... that was something else. Sewald's reaction was priceless.
In terms of karma, outside pitches, hit correctly, are going to go be hit much closer to the line than pitches in the zone, and much likelier to be homers than deep fly ball outs.
So ... all of MLB is hitting .170 and slugging .387 on fly balls to the opposite field. Devers is 11 / 22 with 5 2B and 5 HR. That's a 1.409 SA. All 5 homers and 3 of the 5 doubles have been barrels (two others were bloops). Devers' Barrel % of .227 is somewhat higher than MLB's .100. The BA on oppo-field fly ball barrels is .641. Devers is 8/8, and the odds of that being random are 1 in 35. He may be lucky that he's not 7 for 8.
Devers is .154 / .231 on 13 weakly-hit balls; his expectation based on his xBA and xSA, and the league differentials, is .131 / .168. That's 0.3 extra hits and .82 extra TB. Which is to say, his luck on weakly-hit balls is that one of his cheap doubles should have been a single.
Doing the same thing for barrels and solid contact ... to begin with, Devers has 8 barrels in 9 solid-or better; the league percentage is .544.
And solid+ flyballs to the opposite field are disproportionately hit within a fielder's reach. The MLB xBA is .559; the actual is .454. For SA, it's 1.940 expected vs. 1.444 actual.
Devers' 1 merely solid contact was a 2B; he had a .460 xBA versus MLB average .342, and 1.793 xSA vs. 1.081. Much harder than the average, and no luck at all for TB.
The three barreled doubles have roughly the same xBA and xSA as all barreled doubles to the oppo; .775 vs. .733 BA, but 2.456 vs. 2.566 SA.
Now, his 5 barreled homers have a lower xBA and xSA then the league; the league is .805 / 3.018 and Devers is .707 / 2.649. But how much of that is luck, and how much a) the ability to hit outside pitches close to the line hard enough t go out of the average park, and b) the ability to knowingly take advantage of Fenway?
Of the 5 homers, the one on May 24 in Chicago was a no-doubter, 106.0, 390'. The other four, in descending order of apparent possible cheapness, are:
May 14 in Texas. 101.7, 359. May 21 vs. Sea (2nd of 2 HR, 5th inning). 102.1, 386, but a 34.0 launch angle where all the others are 26 to 28, the absolute optimum. That's tied with the one off of Sewals in Sea, which was pure skill. June 5 in Oakland. 97.7, 351.
If someone wants to hunt down the video of the three homers from 5/14, 5/21, and 6/5, that would be cool. In the meantime, I'll try to figure out how to get the "homers in X parks) number for individual homers from Statcast. (If anyone knows how, speak up!)
Did you figure how much of all of this is based on hitting in Fenway where every ball that hits the wall has a BABIP of 1.000? |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,024
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2022 2:39:13 GMT -5
{Devers' oppo success}
May 14 in Texas. 101.7, 359. May 21 vs. Sea (2nd of 2 HR, 5th inning). 102.1, 386, but a 34.0 launch angle where all the others are 26 to 28, the absolute optimum. That's tied with the one off of Sewals in Sea, which was pure skill. June 5 in Oakland. 97.7, 351.
If someone wants to hunt down the video of the three homers from 5/14, 5/21, and 6/5, that would be cool. In the meantime, I'll try to figure out how to get the "homers in X parks) number for individual homers from Statcast. (If anyone knows how, speak up!)
Did you figure how much of all of this is based on hitting in Fenway where every ball that hits the wall has a BABIP of 1.000? I can do that by figuring out how much better all road lefty hitters fare on fly balls to left in Fenway, versus all parks.
In the meantime ... going into Sunday's game Devers was leading the the AL in bWAR by a big margin and fWAR by a fraction.
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