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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 19, 2022 19:55:38 GMT -5
The list of free agents this year is actually hugely disappointing. We may have money to spend but not players I want to spend it on. Part of the benefit of Story was (I thought) paying a cheaper price for SS a year early when he lost a game of musical SS chairs.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2022 20:01:52 GMT -5
it isn't just about player comps. You are talking about a premium LH bat that is very young. And he plays 3B pretty decently. The market rewards these players. And what do you do to replace him. What is the opportunity cost there ? People can go through all the metrics they want. If Rafael Devers isn't worth 8yr @ 250 mill, minimum, then there is something wrong with the market. And without a hometown discount, the market is what the Red Sox will be forced to pay to retain his services. Sadly, I think the hometown discount ship sailed after they didn't make him a legit offer before the 2021 season. At that point, his agent was probably making the very strong case he should just ride it out to free agency. I can see why that timing (pre-2021) would have been tricky though. To that point in his career Devers had a 113 wRC+ and wildly uneven defense. But he had also had one excellent year (albeit with a still-not-stratospheric wRC+ of 132), and never an xwOBA above .368. The team still had 3 years of control left. But Devers probably thought he was that 6 WAR guy that he had so far been only for one season; he'd expect a superstar-like contract, but it would make no sense for the Red Sox to assume he'd be a superstar going forward.
With all that in mind, what sort of contract do you think both sides could have agreed to at the time?
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Post by manfred on Jul 19, 2022 20:39:38 GMT -5
Poor planning if true. All our high-end young pitching is ready now, or nearly now. (I don't believe your thesis, but I also question what the team looks like in 2 yrs). Hmmm. Well here are their payroll obligations for 2024:
Story - 22.5 million Verdugo - Arb 3 Pivetta - Arb 3 Arroyo - Arb 3 Franchy - Arb 4 Taylor - Arb 3 Davis - Arb 2 Dalbec - Arb 1 Schreiber - Arb 1 Barnes/Diekman buyouts - 3 million plus pre-arb for Houck, etc.
All in all, probably about $70 million? Giving Bloom about $160 million to work with. They could do something like:
C - Vazquez or some other $10 million catcher 1B - Casas 2B - $20 million free agent SS - Story 3B - Devers for $35 million LF - Xander $35 million
CF - Duran/Rafaela RF - Verdugo DH - Dalbec/rest for positional guys Bench guys - Downs, Rafaela, other cheap guys, maybe trade Arroyo... $5 million
Rotation:
$22 million free agent Pivetta - $9 million? Paxton - $13 million
Whitlock Bello Winckowski Murphy Walter Seabold Groome Crawford
Bullpen:
Houck, and then a bunch of whatever, who cares.
I think they could do all this and stay under the CBT. Honestly I feel like this would be a pretty good team? (All the cheap young pitching is what makes it work.) The trick is that Xander would have to accept fewer years at a higher AAV and be willing to move to LF. If he doesn't accept a shorter contract then there probably ends up being a lot of dead money all at once around 2028 or so - the sort of thing Bloom wants to avoid.
ADD: Oh, but I forgot the point I was trying to make, which is this: a) on the one hand, I think they can afford to keep both Xander and Devers if they want to, and I hope they do; 2) but if they don't they have $70 million a year to play with. Who knows what Bloom would do with that money, but whatever it is, there's no reason to not expect the team to be competitive in 2024 whether they keep Devers and Xander, or just one of them, or neither of them.
This is true, but I think part of the question is what *can* he do? It isn’t just money… it is money+the right guy, and there aren’t that many right guys. Don’t get me wrong, I’m with the principle you’re laying out. But in a way, just as staggering contracts is wise, staggering cash is probably wise too. It is likely great to have $30-40 million open. That could be a great player and some roster guys. Once you get to $70, it means your own roster might be thin on stars — but you aren’t for sure going to be able get those guys. I feel like that is how you end up forcing things like HanRam or Panda. Not saying that would happen with Bloom, but I could see him simply not able to spend the money (I mean for a year, maybe two).
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2022 20:49:06 GMT -5
I don't even worry for a second about him not being able to spend the money. I could see him splitting $70 million 8 different ways, though, on Kiké/Paxton/Wacha/Hill type deals. And I could see him making the calculation that that would be better for the team than putting all those chips on two guys long term.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 19, 2022 20:53:29 GMT -5
You know what contract hurts Devers, the one Ramirez signed in Cleveland.
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Post by keninten on Jul 19, 2022 23:43:59 GMT -5
You know what contract hurts Devers, the one Ramirez signed in Cleveland. Yup, I`d rather have Ramirez 7 yrs @ $141 than Rafi 10 yrs @ $300
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ematz1423
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Posts: 5,517
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 20, 2022 4:10:40 GMT -5
Poor planning if true. All our high-end young pitching is ready now, or nearly now. (I don't believe your thesis, but I also question what the team looks like in 2 yrs). Hmmm. Well here are their payroll obligations for 2024:
Story - 22.5 million Verdugo - Arb 3 Pivetta - Arb 3 Arroyo - Arb 3 Franchy - Arb 4 Taylor - Arb 3 Davis - Arb 2 Dalbec - Arb 1 Schreiber - Arb 1 Barnes/Diekman buyouts - 3 million plus pre-arb for Houck, etc.
All in all, probably about $70 million? Giving Bloom about $160 million to work with. They could do something like:
C - Vazquez or some other $10 million catcher 1B - Casas 2B - $20 million free agent SS - Story 3B - Devers for $35 million LF - Xander $35 million
CF - Duran/Rafaela RF - Verdugo DH - Dalbec/rest for positional guys Bench guys - Downs, Rafaela, other cheap guys, maybe trade Arroyo... $5 million
Rotation:
$22 million free agent Pivetta - $9 million? Paxton - $13 million
Whitlock Bello Winckowski Murphy Walter Seabold Groome Crawford
Bullpen:
Houck, and then a bunch of whatever, who cares.
I think they could do all this and stay under the CBT. Honestly I feel like this would be a pretty good team? (All the cheap young pitching is what makes it work.) The trick is that Xander would have to accept fewer years at a higher AAV and be willing to move to LF. If he doesn't accept a shorter contract then there probably ends up being a lot of dead money all at once around 2028 or so - the sort of thing Bloom wants to avoid.
ADD: Oh, but I forgot the point I was trying to make, which is this: a) on the one hand, I think they can afford to keep both Xander and Devers if they want to, and I hope they do; 2) but if they don't they have $70 million a year to play with. Who knows what Bloom would do with that money, but whatever it is, there's no reason to not expect the team to be competitive in 2024 whether they keep Devers and Xander, or just one of them, or neither of them.
You are missing Chris Sale who I would assume won't be opting out after being injured for the 3rd season in a row. Other than that I completely agree with your thoughts, they can very easily afford rafi and X while still having money to strengthen the team.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 20, 2022 7:30:07 GMT -5
If this is legit then this team has zero interest in keeping Devers and I can only imagine what they really offered Boegarts. Devers is a much better player than Olson and younger too. I really don't understand the logic in pushing players out the door that actually want to play in this market and have thrived over a couple of bucks. Maybe they are just playing the PR game. Even before the season this was a slap in the face. It's negotiating, not a final take it or leave it offer. Teams don't hand out blank checks without a deadline to sign as much as we joke about that. He isn't gone until he's gone. Xander and Devers are basically laughing at the offer publicly. When you start a negotiation too low, it actually hurts negotiation. Have you ever interviewed for a job only to get such a low offer that you didn't even bother to counter? Not to mention it's a little insulting to give him such a low number when he knows he's worth near 3x the initial ask.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2022 7:58:38 GMT -5
It's negotiating, not a final take it or leave it offer. Teams don't hand out blank checks without a deadline to sign as much as we joke about that. He isn't gone until he's gone. Xander and Devers are basically laughing at the offer publicly. When you start a negotiation too low, it actually hurts negotiation. Have you ever interviewed for a job only to get such a low offer that you didn't even bother to counter? Not to mention it's a little insulting to give him such a low number when he knows he's worth near 3x the initial ask. Exactly, it’s an insult and it shows they are either complete jerks trying to pull one over on an insecure player or not serious about signing him. Devers is still only 25, for the remainder of this season. This is the guy you hand a 10 Year contract to. I love Xander and want him to be here, but if his contract is too long, he’s at the age where it’s not smart to be going more than 7 years. If they don’t resign Devers, I won’t even know what to think about what happened to this organization. It’s the Boston Red Sox, you aren’t supposed to lose players like him, at his age over money.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2022 8:06:56 GMT -5
Sadly, I think the hometown discount ship sailed after they didn't make him a legit offer before the 2021 season. At that point, his agent was probably making the very strong case he should just ride it out to free agency. I can see why that timing (pre-2021) would have been tricky though. To that point in his career Devers had a 113 wRC+ and wildly uneven defense. But he had also had one excellent year (albeit with a still-not-stratospheric wRC+ of 132), and never an xwOBA above .368. The team still had 3 years of control left. But Devers probably thought he was that 6 WAR guy that he had so far been only for one season; he'd expect a superstar-like contract, but it would make no sense for the Red Sox to assume he'd be a superstar going forward. With all that in mind, what sort of contract do you think both sides could have agreed to at the time?
A lot cheaper than what they're looking at now. I was thinking of buying out his arb plus three FA years with perhaps an option on one more. I would beat the projected Arb numbers at that time by $6M-12M per year and then pick numbers (or a re-occurring number for Free Agent year (at that time, somewhere between $20M-23M per year may have seemed reasonable). That's given that the team could convince a then-23-year-old player and his agent that getting $110M-$130M guaranteed now, and a chance to go back to free agency at 29 or 30 is a great career decision. Or, shorter: You're set for several lifetimes on this deal, and at 29 you can go get even more.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2022 8:09:56 GMT -5
Xander and Devers are basically laughing at the offer publicly. When you start a negotiation too low, it actually hurts negotiation. Have you ever interviewed for a job only to get such a low offer that you didn't even bother to counter? Not to mention it's a little insulting to give him such a low number when he knows he's worth near 3x the initial ask. Exactly, it’s an insult and it shows they are either complete jerks trying to pull one over on an insecure player or not serious about signing him. Devers is still only 25, for the remainder of this season. This is the guy you hand a 10 Year contract to. I love Xander and want him to be here, but if his contract is too long, he’s at the age where it’s not smart to be going more than 7 years. If they don’t resign Devers, I won’t even know what to think about what happened to this organization. It’s the Boston Red Sox, you aren’t supposed to lose players like him, at his age over money. What is amusing is that the first offer mentioned in this thread as a final offer was 8/180, which is now that he has had the season he has had is seen as insulting in the past.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2022 8:32:35 GMT -5
Xander and Devers are basically laughing at the offer publicly. When you start a negotiation too low, it actually hurts negotiation. Have you ever interviewed for a job only to get such a low offer that you didn't even bother to counter? Not to mention it's a little insulting to give him such a low number when he knows he's worth near 3x the initial ask. Exactly, it’s an insult and it shows they are either complete jerks trying to pull one over on an insecure player or not serious about signing him. Devers is still only 25, for the remainder of this season. This is the guy you hand a 10 Year contract to. I love Xander and want him to be here, but if his contract is too long, he’s at the age where it’s not smart to be going more than 7 years. If they don’t resign Devers, I won’t even know what to think about what happened to this organization. It’s the Boston Red Sox, you aren’t supposed to lose players like him, at his age over money. You'd think they'd learn their lesson back with Lester, and knowing that most of these players all measure each other by how much they make. Remember Pedro's comment: "I want to make one more dollar than Kurt Schilling." That's not just him, it's the attitude of the bulk of MLB players. If you think you're the best, you want to be paid like the best. Look at the offer NYY made Judge. Not what he wants but probably 90% of the way there. At the very least, not insulting.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2022 9:10:26 GMT -5
I can see why that timing (pre-2021) would have been tricky though. To that point in his career Devers had a 113 wRC+ and wildly uneven defense. But he had also had one excellent year (albeit with a still-not-stratospheric wRC+ of 132), and never an xwOBA above .368. The team still had 3 years of control left. But Devers probably thought he was that 6 WAR guy that he had so far been only for one season; he'd expect a superstar-like contract, but it would make no sense for the Red Sox to assume he'd be a superstar going forward. With all that in mind, what sort of contract do you think both sides could have agreed to at the time?
A lot cheaper than what they're looking at now. I was thinking of buying out his arb plus three FA years with perhaps an option on one more. I would beat the projected Arb numbers at that time by $6M-12M per year and then pick numbers (or a re-occurring number for Free Agent year (at that time, somewhere between $20M-23M per year may have seemed reasonable). That's given that the team could convince a then-23-year-old player and his agent that getting $110M-$130M guaranteed now, and a chance to go back to free agency at 29 or 30 is a great career decision. Or, shorter: You're set for several lifetimes on this deal, and at 29 you can go get even more. So you'd essentially be giving him $90 million for an extra three years of control. Maybe Devers would accept that, and in retrospect it would have worked out great, but it's hard to see the Red Sox doing that after only one successful season, and maybe not knowing whether he could stick at 3B.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 20, 2022 9:15:31 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Posts: 5,517
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 20, 2022 9:20:33 GMT -5
That's a bit of a ridiculous quote if you ask me. It's a negotiation, he must realize he's going to be compared to other players and what they got in negotiations. He's not in a league of his own, whether he wants to think he is or not.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2022 9:34:57 GMT -5
These are their numbers for 2019-2021:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | fWAR | bWAR
| Olson | .257 | .354 | .522 | 134 | 9.6 | 11.8
| Devers
| .290
| .350
| .537
| 129 | 11.7
| 9.6
|
Both had two years of team control left coming into this season. Olson looks like a totally reasonable comp for Devers. The one major difference is that Olson is 2.5 years older. But for the Red Sox to start with the sort of offer Olson agreed to seems totally reasonable. It certainly wasn't "insulting" (which is a term people should really reserve for the offer they made to Bogaerts).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2022 9:52:43 GMT -5
These are their numbers for 2019-2021:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | fWAR | bWAR
| Olson | .257 | .354 | .522 | 134 | 9.6 | 11.8
| Devers
| .290
| .350
| .537
| 129 | 11.7
| 9.6
|
Both had two years of team control left coming into this season. Olson looks like a totally reasonable comp for Devers. The one major difference is that Olson is 2.5 years older. But for the Red Sox to start with the sort of offer Olson agreed to seems totally reasonable. It certainly wasn't "insulting" (which is a term people should really reserve for the offer they made to Bogaerts).
But that 2.5 years is a huge difference. Olson put up those numbers more into his prime. Devers' numbers are prior to him reaching his prime. Can you imagine what he'll do the next 2.5 years? Then there is the defensive aspect. The Red Sox are treating Devers like he is a 1b/dh and I get why but the issue with Devers defensively was careless errors and lack of maturation at 3b, not having an inability to play or stick at that position. I don't blame Devers for saying screw that. And while the OPS numbers look similar those 2.5 years are maturation years for Devers, the kind of maturation in which Devers can draw more walks if he doesn't get pitches he can hammer. Olson has nowhere near the hit tool that Devers has. Devers can flat out hit. The component of his OBP that you wonder about is will he walk enough? Well, you can see last year he was drawing more walks. With Olson, the question of his OBP is more will he hit enough in conjunction with the walks? You know he'll draw walks, but the hit tool isn't anywhere near what Devers' is. So I'm not trying to say that the Sox comp was the worst, but it really didn't paint an accurate comp picture and I don't blame Devers at all for saying screw that. I mean honestly, are any of us really shocked that Devers is an offensive monster? We saw him play great under pressure as a youngster in the post-season in 2018. We saw Devers absolutely rake in 2019, and again in 2021, but with a more disciplined approach, and this year we see him hitting the pitches he knows he can get to and laying off when he needs to. We know his defensive metrics weren't good, but we also know he is young and has the skills. Is it shocking that he's starting to put it together defensively? I know his 2020 season wasn't very good, but honestly, that was such an abberation of a season I don't really put much weight into his 2020 performance any more than I would put weight into JD Martinez's season.
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 20, 2022 10:00:57 GMT -5
Gotta agree that it seems like a reasonable starting point with the idea that the Sox are most likely expecting to go higher. They are essentially acknowledging that Devers is a better player by starting the negotiations at a point where the Olson negotiations ended. If Devers were interested in a negotiation his group would counter with something on the top end that they really weren't expecting to get and then the two sides could work toward the middle ground. So far that hasn't happened.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 20, 2022 10:08:43 GMT -5
These are their numbers for 2019-2021:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | fWAR | bWAR
| Olson | .257 | .354 | .522 | 134 | 9.6 | 11.8
| Devers
| .290
| .350
| .537
| 129 | 11.7
| 9.6
|
Both had two years of team control left coming into this season. Olson looks like a totally reasonable comp for Devers. The one major difference is that Olson is 2.5 years older. But for the Red Sox to start with the sort of offer Olson agreed to seems totally reasonable. It certainly wasn't "insulting" (which is a term people should really reserve for the offer they made to Bogaerts).
But that 2.5 years is a huge difference. Olson put up those numbers more into his prime. Devers' numbers are prior to him reaching his prime. Can you imagine what he'll do the next 2.5 years? Then there is the defensive aspect. The Red Sox are treating Devers like he is a 1b/dh and I get why but the issue with Devers defensively was careless errors and lack of maturation at 3b, not having an inability to play or stick at that position. I don't blame Devers for saying screw that. And while the OPS numbers look similar those 2.5 years are maturation years for Devers, the kind of maturation in which Devers can draw more walks if he doesn't get pitches he can hammer. Olson has nowhere near the hit tool that Devers has. Devers can flat out hit. The component of his OBP that you wonder about is will he walk enough? Well, you can see last year he was drawing more walks. With Olson, the question of his OBP is more will he hit enough in conjunction with the walks? You know he'll draw walks, but the hit tool isn't anywhere near what Devers' is. So I'm not trying to say that the Sox comp was the worst, but it really didn't paint an accurate comp picture and I don't blame Devers at all for saying screw that. I mean honestly, are any of us really shocked that Devers is an offensive monster? We saw him play great under pressure as a youngster in the post-season in 2018. We saw Devers absolutely rake in 2019, and again in 2021, but with a more disciplined approach, and this year we see him hitting the pitches he knows he can get to and laying off when he needs to. We know his defensive metrics weren't good, but we also know he is young and has the skills. Is it shocking that he's starting to put it together defensively? I know his 2020 season wasn't very good, but honestly, that was such an abberation of a season I don't really put much weight into his 2020 performance any more than I would put weight into JD Martinez's season. So you are saying you expected the Red Sox to make him an offer forecasting that his offense and defense were going to improve? There are plenty of guys who peak at this age range. To name a third baseman of recent albatross-riddle-memory for the Red Sox - Pablo Sandoval. It looks like Devers made a good bet on himself, that doesn't make the Red Sox insulting for not doing the same. Of course it's not inconceivable that he's doing this, but had the Red Sox made the type of offer it sounds like he was looking for they basically would have left themselves no room for upside in the deal. Either he does this (and he will still have to maintain it), and makes the deal worthwhile, or he continues to play like he had which is a great player but worth more in line with the Olson contract, and the contract looks like a bit of an overpay. Or (and I'm obviously not predicting this) he gets the big money, his metabolism slows a little and his weight rises, solid at third becomes unplayable and the swing and his poor plate discipline catches up on him a little. Saying all that, I hope they do sign him to the big long term deal, I just don't get the griping as if the Red Sox approached it unreasonably. Now, a sub $100M offer to Xander, THAT is insulting.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 20, 2022 10:24:06 GMT -5
It seems to me that the Red Sox acted reasonably
Devers acted kind of unreasonably, but in a way that is common and maybe admirable for a mega high achieving athlete
And it will all work out if Devers has a great second half and signs the massive contract extension he wanted all along
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 20, 2022 10:58:19 GMT -5
I’m telling you this off-season is going to be very busy and very fascinating . For some reason I feel Bloom wanted this to happen keep everything status quo until this off-season. Looking back , it’s the only thing that makes sense to me how he approached the last two/ three off-seasons. It’s too bad the FO let DD sign Sale before he was let go.
The only way they sign Xman if they do a Correa type of deal. He signed with the Twins. That makes a lot of sense. At least to me. I can not give him 6 years or 5 years.
I don’t think Bloom is targeting the high end free agents, I think he wants that guy just before the big money. Someone who’s gonna pop like in his 3, 4 or 5 year. These teams are not gonna be able to keep all there young talent. We will see this off-season is D-DAY.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2022 11:11:46 GMT -5
But that 2.5 years is a huge difference. Olson put up those numbers more into his prime. Devers' numbers are prior to him reaching his prime. Can you imagine what he'll do the next 2.5 years? Then there is the defensive aspect. The Red Sox are treating Devers like he is a 1b/dh and I get why but the issue with Devers defensively was careless errors and lack of maturation at 3b, not having an inability to play or stick at that position. I don't blame Devers for saying screw that. And while the OPS numbers look similar those 2.5 years are maturation years for Devers, the kind of maturation in which Devers can draw more walks if he doesn't get pitches he can hammer. Olson has nowhere near the hit tool that Devers has. Devers can flat out hit. The component of his OBP that you wonder about is will he walk enough? Well, you can see last year he was drawing more walks. With Olson, the question of his OBP is more will he hit enough in conjunction with the walks? You know he'll draw walks, but the hit tool isn't anywhere near what Devers' is. So I'm not trying to say that the Sox comp was the worst, but it really didn't paint an accurate comp picture and I don't blame Devers at all for saying screw that. I mean honestly, are any of us really shocked that Devers is an offensive monster? We saw him play great under pressure as a youngster in the post-season in 2018. We saw Devers absolutely rake in 2019, and again in 2021, but with a more disciplined approach, and this year we see him hitting the pitches he knows he can get to and laying off when he needs to. We know his defensive metrics weren't good, but we also know he is young and has the skills. Is it shocking that he's starting to put it together defensively? I know his 2020 season wasn't very good, but honestly, that was such an abberation of a season I don't really put much weight into his 2020 performance any more than I would put weight into JD Martinez's season. So you are saying you expected the Red Sox to make him an offer forecasting that his offense and defense were going to improve? There are plenty of guys who peak at this age range. To name a third baseman of recent albatross-riddle-memory for the Red Sox - Pablo Sandoval. It looks like Devers made a good bet on himself, that doesn't make the Red Sox insulting for not doing the same. Of course it's not inconceivable that he's doing this, but had the Red Sox made the type of offer it sounds like he was looking for they basically would have left themselves no room for upside in the deal. Either he does this (and he will still have to maintain it), and makes the deal worthwhile, or he continues to play like he had which is a great player but worth more in line with the Olson contract, and the contract looks like a bit of an overpay. Or (and I'm obviously not predicting this) he gets the big money, his metabolism slows a little and his weight rises, solid at third becomes unplayable and the swing and his poor plate discipline catches up on him a little. Saying all that, I hope they do sign him to the big long term deal, I just don't get the griping as if the Red Sox approached it unreasonably. Now, a sub $100M offer to Xander, THAT is insulting. You look at Raffy Devers and you see Pablo Sandoval? Sandoval had zero plate discipline and less discipline off the field when it came to conditioning. Devers had two monster seasons offensively that Sandoval didn't have. If memory serves he had one strong season early on and a great 2012 World Series, but his plate discipline and his conditioning were so horrific. I mean how do you not look at his 2019 and 2021 seasons and not see more growth and maturation ahead? Defensively I get your point, but still, his issues weren't that he didn't work on things or didn't have the skill set. I don't think he'll be a gold glover but I didn't see why he shouldn't be a competent 3b over the next few years. I could be wrong, but I don't think I was one of those that was sold on Dalbec being a better 3b defensively than Devers. I think when you give out a long-term contract you have to have projection involves, whether it's good or bad. I mean teams do know that they're not going to get value on the back end so they bake that into their offers. Likewise if you think an asset is going to appreciate it and you want to lock it in you invest. And that's the case with Devers.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 20, 2022 11:44:29 GMT -5
There's really no reason for Devers to come off his "I'm worth top dollar" stance a year and a half out from free agency. As long as he continues to perform, all the pressure is on the club to come closer to him.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2022 12:07:24 GMT -5
The list of free agents this year is actually hugely disappointing. We may have money to spend but not players I want to spend it on. Part of the benefit of Story was (I thought) paying a cheaper price for SS a year early when he lost a game of musical SS chairs. This was a point many of us made in the off-season. That class was rich with talent and had better pitching. If they went over and then, at the end of the season, cleared out the same FAs they are letting walk this year, the penalty this year would've been minimum, and then you could've reset after this year. This year's candidates are pretty lean. We have some GUYs (repeat All-Star-level) and then a lot of guys, with some high-risk/serious injury candidates in the GUY pitching ranks (i.e. what else is new?): GUYS Correa (probably) Judge Xander (probably) Trea Turner Eovaldi (injury risk, 33 yrs old) Rodon (injury risk, 30 yrs old) deGrom (maybe opts out, injury risk) I might've missed someone. I don't count relievers in this group in general because they are undependable for the most part. Anyway, after that, it's a cast of dozens. In positions of need, other than Judge, there's not a true OF stud out there but a very few good (Nimmo - would fit well but prob will get 5 years and Benintendi) guys and a pile of so-so to bleh spare parts. There's not a catcher under or at 30 worth a damn, and the others are used up or not worth more than a 1-year deal. The next tier starters are a few meh 3/4ish guys who are over 30 - some having career years - all will get at least 3-year contracts and more likely 4 or more. They include: (Tyler Anderson, Ross Stripling, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Sonny Gray, Mike Clevenger, Michael Wacha). The rest look to be XFIP over 4.00 dreck. And then the usual assortment of relievers, which, aside from maybe two or three guys a year, are like spin the wheel and maybe win a prize. But yes, salary space, Chaim!
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2022 12:18:05 GMT -5
So you are saying you expected the Red Sox to make him an offer forecasting that his offense and defense were going to improve? There are plenty of guys who peak at this age range. To name a third baseman of recent albatross-riddle-memory for the Red Sox - Pablo Sandoval. It looks like Devers made a good bet on himself, that doesn't make the Red Sox insulting for not doing the same. Of course it's not inconceivable that he's doing this, but had the Red Sox made the type of offer it sounds like he was looking for they basically would have left themselves no room for upside in the deal. Either he does this (and he will still have to maintain it), and makes the deal worthwhile, or he continues to play like he had which is a great player but worth more in line with the Olson contract, and the contract looks like a bit of an overpay. Or (and I'm obviously not predicting this) he gets the big money, his metabolism slows a little and his weight rises, solid at third becomes unplayable and the swing and his poor plate discipline catches up on him a little. Saying all that, I hope they do sign him to the big long term deal, I just don't get the griping as if the Red Sox approached it unreasonably. Now, a sub $100M offer to Xander, THAT is insulting. You look at Raffy Devers and you see Pablo Sandoval? Sandoval had zero plate discipline and less discipline off the field when it came to conditioning. Devers had two monster seasons offensively that Sandoval didn't have. If memory serves he had one strong season early on and a great 2012 World Series, but his plate discipline and his conditioning were so horrific. I mean how do you not look at his 2019 and 2021 seasons and not see more growth and maturation ahead?Defensively I get your point, but still, his issues weren't that he didn't work on things or didn't have the skill set. I don't think he'll be a gold glover but I didn't see why he shouldn't be a competent 3b over the next few years. I could be wrong, but I don't think I was one of those that was sold on Dalbec being a better 3b defensively than Devers. I think when you give out a long-term contract you have to have projection involves, whether it's good or bad. I mean teams do know that they're not going to get value on the back end so they bake that into their offers. Likewise if you think an asset is going to appreciate it and you want to lock it in you invest. And that's the case with Devers. Sandoval had seasons of 149 and 146 wRC+ before turning 25. Devers' best two seasons were 134 and 132.
I really think you're having a hard time judging how things appeared at the time. The new offensive tier Devers reached this season was merely a hypothetical, which you're now treating as something that was a fait accompli in advance. It really wasn't. And the thought that Dvers might have had trouble with plate discipline and conditioning is hardly a wild idea either.
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