Devers Extension talks

Lol posted the same analysis just ahead of you. 

Sure, but 1) Owners like big names because 2) Big names sell seats/ad revenue/shirts/etc.

Perception often equals reality in this league, at least, when it comes to contracts. There's also the increasing Luxury Tax limit, the new revenues giving every team an added $70M to $100M a year (depending on the reporting of actual streaming/playoff deals), some teams (Mets, LAD) having money to burn and other teams will be looking for a marquee star.

Transparency ?  Yours is a completely quantitative comp.  It doesn't factor in market irrationality.  Therefore, it is not objective and it rooted in bias.

The Sox can afford, and the market for Devers for 10 years will approach 300/million +/-.  I almost certain of that.  Willing to concede it's on the high end, but not a significant difference over a 10 year payment.

Profits, injuries, revenues, competition, rules changes, CBT changes..... just to a name of few of things you do not want to make a part of the equation.  Him being homegrown was a little blurb i threw in that is not the crux of most anyone's argument.  

Eh, it seems to me that trying to minimize the number of meaningless games is the only thing that's really important.  Interest craters fast once the team is out of it

i don't know if there is a more proper way to do it (these are their ages today).  if you want to use a future point, then your open to him having 2 monster years and increasing his value in the open market.  Which may make these contracts look like bargains.   I don't know that it is fair to make future predictions, they can occur both ways.

Chemical enhancements appear to have lengthened careers not shortened them. And the fact that some might have predicted that Justin Upton would hit 500 homers is the reason to not predict players like Devers to hit 500 homers!

Adam Dunn played until he was 34 and basically not great anymore. He might not have ever hit 500 to be honest. The flip side of this is that Eddie Murray finished his career with multiple ops+ seasons below 90 and one below 60, which got him just squeaking over the finish line. He might not have got that chance in today's game. The truth is that ballplayers hit and miss milestones all the time for reasons that have little to do with actual ability. With some major exceptions, however, we want to keep this data in for predictive reasons because we have no idea when the case we're predicting might experience something vaguely similar. 

It's pretty unambiguously the case that when you look at the evidence, it doesn't make sense to say that Devers should be favored to hit 500 homers in his career. He might very well do it! But he probably won't.

I hope Raffy hits another level this year as much as anyone, except maybe he and his agent, but the fact is for truly elite hitters many of them have their best seasons very early. The idea that he hasn't hit his prime isn't as valid as it might be for lesser players and he has only been over 900 OPS once so far so he isn't quite that elite. Also the scuttle butt is he wants more like 35AAV correct? That is what I have heard thrown around. I can totally understand if the Sox decide to move him for multiple players and at least 1 elite prospect as he does have his warts LT. As fans we might not like it but based on all the analysis it might be the smart move rather than paying him 33AAV. I mean really how many times have we watched the Yankees get screwed with dead cap space let alone our own mistakes.

Actually Devers had a .916 OPS in 2019 and just missed in 2021, at .890, so in his last two full seasons he has averaged around .900 and I think there's a reasonable chance that he exceeds .916 in 2022. I'm not putting too much weight into 2020, which was a 60 game season in which Devers looked rusty and like he was out of shape. I don't care too much about what he did in 2017 and 2018. He was too good for the minors, but only a 20 year old in the majors, so obviously he wasn't a superstar at that point although he showed promise.

In 2018 he was not good - for 2/3 of the season and then in August he started to blossom a bit - I thought he had a solid post-season and that it portended what was ahead, which in 2019 is the more prototypical season of what to expect going forward - and there might be another gear there offensively. His last two full seasons his OBP were .361 and .352, so I think that lifetime .338 is sure to rise. Last season was the first time he walked in 10% of his plate appearances. He had been a hacker prior to that, so it seems to me he is gaining plate discipline and the more he displays the more I think he will continue to improve, so I'm bullish on his future, particularly the next five to seven years as he hits his prime.

As far as the $ things goes, I suspect superstars will get 400 million - Soto's payday should be interesting (and Vlad Jr), all-stars will get 300 million, etc.....if that's the tier that Devers will wind up near 300 million if he doesn't exceed it.

If you want to argue he's not exactly worth the money I can see the argument but at some point you need to overpay for certainty.

I get the "keep the team playing great every year argument" and "keep flexible". Great ideas...not always easy to maintain. If you start having success then you pick further down in the draft and it gets harder to keep the waves of young talent flowing. I'd rather see the Sox occasionally overpay for certainty (depends upon the degree of certainty and the level of overpay of course).

it's my opinion that this franchise can definitely overpay for the kind of player that he is, if we want to put it in that framework.  It's not often you have a power hitting, left handed bat with this kind of pedigree entering FA at the age of 27.  If they are running their financials / development correctly, i don't see it as a hindrance.  

The number of years may differ or the AAV, whatever, but if teams don't value this guy at between 250 and 300 million dollars as an investment in todays market, I think teams are just overthinking it or are scared of negative consequences.

Bloom could have done better than Verdugo and dreck. His old boss took him to the woodshed. Again, trading Mookie was fine. But even if you end up with a couple prospects from the Padres you're still coming out of this ahead of what you got. There is zero risk in low money one or two year deals. So if you're telling me that you're moving Devers for a Mookie like return and signing a guy for one year who might be coming off a down season then that person better be Adrian Beltre. Otherwise its not going to be a good move for the major league team. Farm will be better though. Depends what you want. Trevor Story signing is good if they keep Devers and Xander otherwise replacing both with Story is a downgrade.

Yeah I don’t think people really appreciate how good the return on the Mookie deal was.

I know this wasn't known at the time the trade was made, but the return was for 60 games of team control of Mookie.

Getting Verdugo for him alone would have been a steal.