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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 14, 2022 14:06:11 GMT -5
Yeah I don’t think people really appreciate how good the return on the Mookie deal was. I know this wasn't known at the time the trade was made, but the return was for 60 games of team control of Mookie. Getting Verdugo for him alone would have been a steal. Not to rehash this. But you're more or less saying a cost controlled 3rd outfielder is worth a top 5 player in the game for 60 games. They could have done better. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 14, 2022 14:10:27 GMT -5
I know this wasn't known at the time the trade was made, but the return was for 60 games of team control of Mookie. Getting Verdugo for him alone would have been a steal. Not to rehash this. But you're more or less saying a cost controlled 3rd outfielder is worth a top 5 player in the game for 60 games. They could have done better. For mookie without attaching price they surely could have but when they attached price to the deal to clear money I'm not so sure they could have done any better than what they received. Verdugo is at the very least a starting caliber OF controlled for 6 years. Downs I'm about ready to give up on but Wong is still interesting too. |
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Post by Guidas on Apr 14, 2022 14:16:03 GMT -5
Sure, but 1) Owners like big names because 2) Big names sell seats/ad revenue/shirts/etc. Perception often equals reality in this league, at least, when it comes to contracts. There's also the increasing Luxury Tax limit, the new revenues giving every team an added $70M to $100M a year (depending on the reporting of actual streaming/playoff deals), some teams (Mets, LAD) having money to burn and other teams will be looking for a marquee star. I doubt Bloom cares about ad revenue and jersey sales. Obviously Henry might, and maybe he'll tell Bloom that he needs to sign at least one of Bogaerts or Devers no matter the price. But the impression I get is that Bloom has free reign to do whatever he thinks will lead to team success, and ownership (rightly) believes that at the end of the day, being successful is what's best for the bottom line. (Personally, I hate when ownership intervenes in the GM's job. It almost always goes bad - like, Bobby Valentine bad. But in this case I would not hate it if Henry actually had this little side chat with Bloom.)
And to be clear, I am talking more about Devers' market among all the other 29 MLB teams. The current ownership knows what he brings to the table. If they weren't willing to retain Mookie, who I believe was the face of the franchise and far more popular than Devers, then Devers - barring a sudden change of heart on his part to provide a substantial sub-market value discount - is gone. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2022 14:16:50 GMT -5
I know this wasn't known at the time the trade was made, but the return was for 60 games of team control of Mookie. Getting Verdugo for him alone would have been a steal. Not to rehash this. But you're more or less saying a cost controlled 3rd outfielder is worth a top 5 player in the game for 60 games. They could have done better. Yes, when he was making $30M and came with $16M of Price's contract, severely limiting the number of teams who refused to bid against themselves. Mookie only has 2.8 fWAR more than Verdugo since the trade while making about $40 million more. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 14, 2022 14:59:30 GMT -5
No. No no no.
Rafael Devers extension thread.
No.
We're deleting anything off that topic after this.
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Post by prospectlove on Apr 14, 2022 16:08:32 GMT -5
Having read what Mlbtraderumors is reporting for the extension talks, it sure feels like both Devers and Xander are long gone. Obviously positions can change, but at 4/$90 million for Xander it sure doesn't feel they want to keep him. And Devers you have to believe is asking for that magic $300 million probably over 10 years. (totally guessing)
But here's some thoughts/concerns I have if these 2 players both leave:
1) Are Red Sox going the way of non high end teams. Ie sell when free agency gets close or into that superstar long term deal range? (I don't think Story was a massive deal because of the number of years signed for)
2) JD/Xander/Devers could all be gone next year. That production just can't be replaced in year 1, especially for Xander and Devers. This concerns me as it pertains to winning a championship. So what's the goal?? Win championship? Or compete year in and year out to have a good showing? In other words are they willing to go for broke anymore (both in contract or demeanor).
3) Do they trade Devers if they can't sign Xander? And what's the dropoff in terms of production?
I just find it interesting because from what's reported (over $100 million apart for both players) we could easily lose our 2/3/4 hitters next year.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2022 18:22:41 GMT -5
Not to rehash this. But you're more or less saying a cost controlled 3rd outfielder is worth a top 5 player in the game for 60 games. They could have done better. Yes, when he was making $30M and came with $16M of Price's contract, severely limiting the number of teams who refused to bid against themselves. Mookie only has 2.8 fWAR more than Verdugo since the trade while making about $40 million more. Verdugo is an above average MLB outfielder with six years of controllability (at the time of the trade) for $27,000,000 of Betts and Price’s $48,000,000 over three years. Hell yes, I would make that trade 100 times over even if Wong and Downs were not included. Mookie was gone, gone, gone !!! (as in not signing with the Red Sox period). |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2022 18:24:50 GMT -5
No. No no no. Rafael Devers extension thread. No. We're deleting anything off that topic after this. …..then delete all the Renfroe rehash from the Yankee and Detroit series threads while you are at it. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 14, 2022 18:57:05 GMT -5
I’m still sad the “Little Papi” nickname never stuck. I guess im the only one who loved it.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 14, 2022 19:50:35 GMT -5
I'm going to copy and paste another comment I wrote on this a while back:
"If one team won 65% of their games in the regular season, that team would be a huge favorite in the playoffs. That's a record of 105-57. The playoff competition is stronger than the regular season, so let's assume this team wins roughly 55% of their games against other playoff teams. Statistically, this team would only win a 7-game series 61% of the time and a 5-game series 59% of the time. Assuming 10-team playoffs and that this team won their division, they would still only have a 22% chance of winning the WS. You'd have to replicate this season three times to have a greater than 50% chance of winning the WS. You'd have to replicate it three more times to have a greater than 75% chance of winning the WS.
Most playoff teams are way less dominant than this, though, and luck is a thing, so some teams will need many more attempts before winning the WS, even if they have great teams with a realistic shot. Incidentally, this is also why the Dodgers model is so good. The Red Sox have defied the odds to win the amount of titles they have. You're going to win more WS in the long run if you win your division consistently than if you boom and bust."
---
I would push back on Bloom having gotten "destroyed" on the Mookie trade. Especially given the state of the Sox roster when the trade was made, I would rather have had five years of Verdugo and $48 million of Price's money off the books than one season of Mookie Betts. This holds even if Downs and Wong never play another game in the majors. The Sox were not going to be competitive in 2020, so losing that year of Mookie wasn't really a negative. In practice it turned out to be a blessing because the Sox finished 24-36, picked fourth in the draft, and were able to select Marcelo Mayer, the consensus top talent in the draft. Mookie put up 1.5 more WAR than Verdugo in 2020, so keeping him would very likely have put Mayer out of reach; there were two teams at 25-35 and five teams at 26-34.
Preferring the Graterol trade is fine, but the Sox didn't like his medicals. I don't think it's fair to criticize the GM for trusting the team doctors. It's all fun and games until your flamethrower needs TJ. Plus, when that trade was altered I think many people, myself included, preferred getting Wong and Downs, who at the time was seen as a possible future MLB regular at 2B, over a relief pitcher with injury risk, great arm aside. I remember seeing multiple posts alleging that Graterol's "medical issue" was just a cop out because Bloom realized he was getting fleeced and wanted to alter the deal.
Bloom's "meh" FA signings have been exclusively one-year guys that were had at a discount because they were flawed players. The hope was to get them right and have a bargain that could help for 2022 as well. Not everyone is going to over-perform like Hunter Renfroe, though, and I don't understand begrudging Bloom the ones that didn't work out when they had no long-term impact on the team. Would you rather he not pick up guys at a discount because there's risk there, even if it means throwing out Baby Kiké with the bathwater? A wise man once said "in order to run a successful business you can't be 100% risk averse"  The Trevor Story contract is a perfect example of the kind of talent you can acquire on the FA market without overpaying and without taking on huge albatross risk.
I'm fine with making an extra effort to retain veteran fan favorites; they've proven they can succeed in Boston, it keeps the fans happy, and they will likely pay dividends in the leadership, marketing, and FA wooing aspects. At the end of the day, though, it doesn't make sense to overpay for a guy just because he's an established star. The deal also has to be fair. Anything else would be irrational.
Bloom could have done better than Verdugo and dreck. His old boss took him to the woodshed. Again, trading Mookie was fine. But even if you end up with a couple prospects from the Padres you're still coming out of this ahead of what you got. There is zero risk in low money one or two year deals. So if you're telling me that you're moving Devers for a Mookie like return and signing a guy for one year who might be coming off a down season then that person better be Adrian Beltre. Otherwise its not going to be a good move for the major league team. Farm will be better though. Depends what you want. Trevor Story signing is good if they keep Devers and Xander otherwise replacing both with Story is a downgrade. You expect a better return than five years of Alex Verdugo, the #44 prospect in baseball, a mid-tier catching prospect, and $48 million in exchange for one year of Mookie Betts $27 million dollars and three years of the corpse of David Price at 3/48? I highly doubt it. I think it was a pretty good haul.
I'm not suggesting we move Devers and then sign some bum on the side of the road. If we're moving Devers we should be getting elite talent back. That means either pieces that are starting quality or pieces we can move for someone else that is. There's also the possible route of signing a FA that doesn't require such a significant overpay. For example, someone like Story who is willing to take a marginal pay cut to play on a winning ball club rather than staying in Colorado.
Story is the same age as Xander and from 2018-2021 he was worth 20 bWAR / 17.1 fWAR. Xander was worth 17.7 bWAR / 18.8 fWAR. If Bogaerts walks Story should be a lateral move at worst, and a more affordable one at that. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 5:17:39 GMT -5
You cannot infer anything about the chances of extending Devers from their not extending Betts. What they did with Betts is actually off-topic here.
1) Betts never expressed an interest in an extension and IIRC never said anything about wanting to play in Boston the rest of his career. Devers has expressed a strong interest in both of these things. And a hometown discount is a real thing. Guys take less money to stay in a situation that they want to stay in. I mean, duh.
2) There's still a huge uncertainty about Devers' future value. I've said from the very beginning that he has Gold-Glove finalist tools, and in the massive sample size of 6 games this year he's been the best defensive 3B in MLB. His track record is ... somewhat less good. The Sox are not going to be able to extend him now with a projection based on his past defense, nor would they pay him now on a projection based on his defensive ceiling. It would make sense for the Sox to split the difference, but if I'm Devers I turn that down and bet on outperforming that assumption. If they had reached an agreement this past winter, someone would have screwed up.
3) They are not very comparable as players. Betts arrived as a largely polished hitter, and put up a 140 wRC+ from ages 23 to 25 and has been 134 since. That's not a good sign, long-term. Devers' strike zone command is still a work in progress, and yet he edged Betts in oWAR / 650 PA in ages 22 to 24, 4.7 to 4.5, despite not having an opportunity to play the remainder of his age 23 season once he got it going. Betts has had much more value in defense, and that's already faded: StatCast Runs Above Average (on balls in play) from age 23 (start of Statcast) being 14, 17, 11, 5, 5, -2 (but nursing injuries). Note that the Dodgers signed him to the extension after the first 5 year, and any projections system would have had him better than he's been.
4) Does anyone disagree that Betts and McCutchen are similar players (Betts even better, of course)? You can see the possibility that the Sox foresaw the possibility of a steep decline (McCutchen going overnight from 6 to 2 WAR per 650) and were simply uninterested in the sort of contract they knew he could get.
5) I did say here that I would trade Betts even-up for Verdugo, but the D's would never do that. Well, they did, and as I pointed out a few days ago, when you factor in clutch hitting and make the best possible assessment of defense, Verdugo has had 1.2 WAR more than Betts since the trade. So the whole narrative that they screwed this up once and will screw it up again is likely to be ass-backwards.
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Post by costpet on Apr 15, 2022 6:02:45 GMT -5
Given a choice, I would prefer they keep Devers. He's a pure hitter and will be for a long time, even if he ends up as our DH. Boggy can be replaced far easier. His bat is good, not great. Dever's bat is great.
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Post by jmei on Apr 15, 2022 6:24:54 GMT -5
No. No no no. Rafael Devers extension thread. No. We're deleting anything off that topic after this. To reiterate: this is the Devers extension thread, and rehash of the Betts trade does not belong here. I am feeling lenient on this Good Friday but that leniency will not extend beyond this post. We will delete any Betts discussion (even Betts discussion ostensibly comparative to the Devers situation) from now on. Thanks. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2022 6:58:35 GMT -5
Given a choice, I would prefer they keep Devers. He's a pure hitter and will be for a long time, even if he ends up as our DH. Boggy can be replaced far easier. His bat is good, not great. Dever's bat is great. Perception vs reality might not match up with this thought. The analytics don't say Devers bat is great, very good but not great. He takes mighty hacks and puts dents in balls so he is fun to watch but he has another step to take to be great IMO. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 15, 2022 7:46:26 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season?
Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B?
Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan?
Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per?
Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38?
Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas?
The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats.
And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger?
Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander.
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Post by costpet on Apr 15, 2022 7:57:18 GMT -5
If you want to compare the two, their BA is close, Devers .280 lifetime Boggy .290
OPS Devers .848 Boggy .811
BUT! Age 25 vs almost 30.
I'll take Devers for the next 10 years. 10 years $300 mil would work.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 15, 2022 7:58:15 GMT -5
Given a choice, I would prefer they keep Devers. He's a pure hitter and will be for a long time, even if he ends up as our DH. Boggy can be replaced far easier. His bat is good, not great. Dever's bat is great. Perception vs reality might not match up with this thought. The analytics don't say Devers bat is great, very good but not great. He takes mighty hacks and puts dents in balls so he is fun to watch but he has another step to take to be great IMO. Devers is 25 years old. He's not even in his prime yet. He's off to a great (very early) start this year. Devers was tied for 96th in WAR in all of baseball last year at 3.5. In Offensive WAR he was tied for 21st in baseball. Xander was 13th. www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/offensive/year/2021 |
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Post by greenmonster on Apr 15, 2022 8:10:27 GMT -5
I’m still sad the “Little Papi” nickname never stuck. I guess im the only one who loved it. A friend and I affectionately began calling him "Baby Huey" and then shortened it to "Huey".....Its safe to say that we are the only two who use that nickname |
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Post by tyler3 on Apr 15, 2022 9:03:17 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season? Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. One, I’m for keeping Devers..but to answer your question…how long before Mayer is up in a best case scenario? I know you can’t count on a prospect making it, but if Story’s arm is back I bet he’d make a great 3B on the back half of his deal. 2024 seems early for this but I could imagine an infield of Story at 3rd with Mayer, Yorke, and Cases at their natural positions in 2025…..having said that, I’d want Devers here. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 15, 2022 10:03:01 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season? Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. One, I’m for keeping Devers..but to answer your question…how long before Mayer is up in a best case scenario? I know you can’t count on a prospect making it, but if Story’s arm is back I bet he’d make a great 3B on the back half of his deal. 2024 seems early for this but I could imagine an infield of Story at 3rd with Mayer, Yorke, and Cases at their natural positions in 2025…..having said that, I’d want Devers here. As a best case scenario, Triston Casas might get called up this year after being drafted out of highschool in 2018. I would have an ETA of Mayer of at least 3 years (probably 4). I know Mayer is a better prospect than what Trey Ball ever was, but here's a guy who was taken 7th overall and never made it out of AA. I prefer to not pencil in guys until they have about 2 years of minor league success. I'm not sure Story would be good at 3B if there's questions on his arm. Was arm strength a strength of his pre-injury? There's also questions that still linger about his bat outside of Coors. Last year wasn't a banner year for him either. I think he'll be fine and like the signing. I'm hoping he's just here for 4 years at 2B. It sounds nice to have all those guys pan out and playing to their strengths, but if you're not signing guys like Xander or Devers that to me would signal you won't do the same for the next wave either and then we're thinking about the next waves potential. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 15, 2022 10:08:54 GMT -5
One, I’m for keeping Devers..but to answer your question…how long before Mayer is up in a best case scenario? I know you can’t count on a prospect making it, but if Story’s arm is back I bet he’d make a great 3B on the back half of his deal. 2024 seems early for this but I could imagine an infield of Story at 3rd with Mayer, Yorke, and Cases at their natural positions in 2025…..having said that, I’d want Devers here. As a best case scenario, Triston Casas might get called up this year after being drafted out of highschool in 2018. I would have an ETA of Mayer of at least 3 years (probably 4). I know Mayer is a better prospect than what Trey Ball ever was, but here's a guy who was taken 7th overall and never made it out of AA. I prefer to not pencil in guys until they have about 2 years of minor league success. I'm not sure Story would be good at 3B if there's questions on his arm. Was arm strength a strength of his pre-injury? There's also questions that still linger about his bat outside of Coors. Last year wasn't a banner year for him either. I think he'll be fine and like the signing. I'm hoping he's just here for 4 years at 2B. It sounds nice to have all those guys pan out and playing to their strengths, but if you're not signing guys like Xander or Devers that to me would signal you won't do the same for the next wave either and then we're thinking about the next waves potential. We've seen guys get called up when there 20-21, it happens plenty. Not saying its likely and I sure wouldn't bet on it. He does seem rather polished for a high school draftee from last year. I think you're probably correct though, should he pan out I'd guess mid 2025 best case scenario. |
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2022 10:43:21 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season? Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. Bobby Barrels Dalbec, who was rated an ave 3rd baseman defensively and still has a cannon arm. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2022 10:54:18 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season? Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. Dalbec |
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 15, 2022 11:11:45 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 11:15:41 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season?Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. Bobby Barrels Dalbec, who was rated an ave 3rd baseman defensively and still has a cannon arm. Devers. The Sox and every other team will figure out what he's worth, and the numbers will be very similar. Some teams will offer him somewhat more than he's worth, because it will make sense for them as a less competitive team and less desirable destination, but the difference isn't going to mean jack to Devers if he wants to stay here. There's no sign at all that he has an ego problem where he relates $$$ to respect. And that's the only reason players take the highest offer rather than choose the place they want to play from among the fair offers.
Of course Dalbec is an option, which is relevant. Check out his thread for some fun facts (not about 3B).
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The Trevor Story contract is a perfect example of the kind of talent you can acquire on the FA market without overpaying and without taking on huge albatross risk. 
