SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Extending Enrique Hernandez
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 3, 2021 1:24:12 GMT -5
What does a Kiké extension look like?
He's entering the final year of his 2-year, $14m deal and he has already been more than worth it.
I feel pretty strongly that extending him is a high priority, given his versatility and excellence in the field and his breakout season. He's also one of the faces of the team when it comes to interacting with the media and is clearly a good teammate. And what a playoff performance...
Chris Taylor just set the market for players of that type (and I'd rather have Kiké). With that as a baseline, how about a 2-year, $30m extension? He would then be eligible for free agency at age 33 and his money would come off the books in the (status quo) year that a CBT reset would be necessary. I'd probably be willing to go a third year.
If you ride out the current contract and he plays as well as in 2021, he'd certainly be asking for a Taylor deal in both length and AAV on the open market. Signing an extension now protects him from losing significant future earnings to an injury in 2022.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
|
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 3, 2021 5:31:20 GMT -5
What does a Kiké extension look like?
He's entering the final year of his 2-year, $14m deal and he has already been more than worth it.
I feel pretty strongly that extending him is a high priority, given his versatility and excellence in the field and his breakout season. He's also one of the faces of the team when it comes to interacting with the media and is clearly a good teammate. And what a playoff performance...
Chris Taylor just set the market for players of that type (and I'd rather have Kiké). With that as a baseline, how about a 2-year, $30m extension? He would then be eligible for free agency at age 33 and his money would come off the books in the (status quo) year that a CBT reset would be necessary. I'd probably be willing to go a third year.
If you ride out the current contract and he plays as well as in 2021, he'd certainly be asking for a Taylor deal in both length and AAV on the open market. Signing an extension now protects him from losing significant future earnings to an injury in 2022.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
I like the idea and the numbers. But is it enough for Kiké to like it or would he rather bet on himself for one more year? I think he would bet on himself but I am obviously just spitballing. Just seems like he has bet on himself thru out his career. What is being a great team player worth? |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 3, 2021 10:25:49 GMT -5
What does a Kiké extension look like?
He's entering the final year of his 2-year, $14m deal and he has already been more than worth it.
I feel pretty strongly that extending him is a high priority, given his versatility and excellence in the field and his breakout season. He's also one of the faces of the team when it comes to interacting with the media and is clearly a good teammate. And what a playoff performance...
Chris Taylor just set the market for players of that type (and I'd rather have Kiké). With that as a baseline, how about a 2-year, $30m extension? He would then be eligible for free agency at age 33 and his money would come off the books in the (status quo) year that a CBT reset would be necessary. I'd probably be willing to go a third year.
If you ride out the current contract and he plays as well as in 2021, he'd certainly be asking for a Taylor deal in both length and AAV on the open market. Signing an extension now protects him from losing significant future earnings to an injury in 2022.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
I like the idea and the numbers. But is it enough for Kiké to like it or would he rather bet on himself for one more year? I think he would bet on himself but I am obviously just spitballing. Just seems like he has bet on himself thru out his career. What is being a great team player worth? Maybe it's the third or even a fourth year that convinces him. I would think a third would be enough, considering the omnipresent risk of injury. Maybe go a little higher on AAV to acknowledge that a) you're better than Chris Taylor and b) we're still getting a bargain on you this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 3, 2021 11:43:53 GMT -5
if you are talking over 3 years and /or more than 10 million, count Bloom out. LOL.
sorry...just having some fun. I like him, but I am not sure I would be in a rush to extend him. As much of a beast as he was in the playoffs, not sure there is enough to make him a priority going forward. I would wait out this year to see if there is sustained success. It may be more costly, but last year was a career for him. IMO, have to see if it is totally legit.
As for the market for him, if he plays like last year, it should be robust. I could easily see 4 @ 14 to 16 a year.
|
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 3, 2021 11:56:36 GMT -5
The thing about Kiké is that if you go four years even if he declines by the end, his versatility will keep him from being total dead weight. I’d be up for offering something like 4/$50 million. Not sure that gets it done.
|
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 3, 2021 12:05:13 GMT -5
I think the deal Taylor got from the dodgers is a decent barometer for Hernandez, I think they're comparable players. 4 years 60 million. Hernandez will be 31 when the deal takes effect which is same age as Taylor.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 3, 2021 12:39:19 GMT -5
The thing about Kiké is that if you go four years even if he declines by the end, his versatility will keep him from being total dead weight. I’d be up for offering something like 4/$50 million. Not sure that gets it done. You sure? Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana are versatile. They looked like dead weight to me. And they were still useful effective players less than 4 years earlier. I wouldn't give Hernandez more than 3 years in an extension. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2021 12:47:22 GMT -5
I'm waiting on four years 60 million for him to again have a great season. Before this years 4.9 bwar season his best year was 2018 at 3.5 bwar. He's had a whole lot of variation in his offense numbers over the years.
|
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 3, 2021 12:47:55 GMT -5
The thing about Kiké is that if you go four years even if he declines by the end, his versatility will keep him from being total dead weight. I’d be up for offering something like 4/$50 million. Not sure that gets it done. You sure? Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana are versatile. They looked like dead weight to me. And they were still useful effective players less than 4 years earlier. I wouldn't give Hernandez more than 3 years in an extension. Well… ok, at some point anyone becomes dead weight! But I guess I don’t imagine (barring injury) Kiké falling off a cliff. I think he is also a far better player than Santana ever was, and a better player than Marwin (though not by quite as much). |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 3, 2021 13:41:20 GMT -5
I'm waiting on four years 60 million for him to again have a great season. Before this years 4.9 bwar season his best year was 2018 at 3.5 bwar. He's had a whole lot of variation in his offense numbers over the years. I mean, two of the last three full seasons he had 4.9 and 3.5 bWAR. That's pretty good, right? Plus he's an incredible, versatile defender and just turned 30.
Would you pay 4/$60m for Schwarber? One year younger but he just had his career high of 3.2 WAR in 2021.
Enrique is a more valuable player who will cost less.
|
|
|
|
Post by fanofredsox on Dec 3, 2021 13:56:37 GMT -5
2years $30m with a 3rd year team option $15m with a $2m buyout. Guaranteed $32m. I don’t think more years should be considered
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 3, 2021 15:48:41 GMT -5
I'm waiting on four years 60 million for him to again have a great season. Before this years 4.9 bwar season his best year was 2018 at 3.5 bwar. He's had a whole lot of variation in his offense numbers over the years. I mean, two of the last three full seasons he had 4.9 and 3.5 bWAR. That's pretty good, right? Plus he's an incredible, versatile defender and just turned 30.
Would you pay 4/$60m for Schwarber? One year younger but he just had his career high of 3.2 WAR in 2021.
Enrique is a more valuable player who will cost less.
His OPS+ since 2015, 131, 64, 92, 117, 87, 82, and 107 last year. Let me see him put together two seasons with an above average OPS+ before I commit 60 million. Fairly good chance he just had his career season, if not then we can talk about deals like that. I just don’t see the upside No I'm not giving Schwarber 60 million over four years. Not good enough to stay in the field and if I pay DHs that much they need to have a higher average. I certainly won't understand paying Schwarber after trading Renfroe, I would just have kept him. My focus if we're talking big money, is finding a long-term replacement to JD Martinez. Your middle of the order stud, that has no weaknesses. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 3, 2021 16:12:38 GMT -5
I mean, two of the last three full seasons he had 4.9 and 3.5 bWAR. That's pretty good, right? Plus he's an incredible, versatile defender and just turned 30.
Would you pay 4/$60m for Schwarber? One year younger but he just had his career high of 3.2 WAR in 2021.
Enrique is a more valuable player who will cost less.
His OPS+ since 2015, 131, 64, 92, 117, 87, 82, and 107 last year. Let me see him put together two seasons with an above average OPS+ before I commit 60 million. Fairly good chance he just had his career season, if not then we can talk about deals like that. I just don’t see the upside No I'm not giving Schwarber 60 million over four years. Not good enough to stay in the field and if I pay DHs that much they need to have a higher average. I certainly won't understand paying Schwarber after trading Renfroe, I would just have kept him. My focus if we're talking big money, is finding a long-term replacement to JD Martinez. Your middle of the order stud, that has no weaknesses. Not wanting to spend even medium money on Schwarber because he's a DH type and also wanting to save the big money for JDM's replacement is an interesting combination of views! Who is the DH who figures to be so much better than Schwarber? (And bearing in mind that Schwarber and JDM have basically identical wOBAs/wRC+'s since the start of 2019, though Schwarber is 5 and a half years younger.) |
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Dec 3, 2021 16:44:43 GMT -5
Kiki was amazing in playoffs. He played a great center field. He has versatility. However....I would offer Kiki the qualifying offer and jump for the moon when he turns it down and walks away for 4/$70. Those years aren't worth paying that money for and here is where I start trusting my development of players. (Downs and Duran...or by that time we could be looking at Yorke almost being ready and either Duran or JBJ plays well enough). I just wouldn't spend that money on Kiki at that age and I would be ecstatic when he returns a draft pick and draft slot money to us.
|
|
|
|
Post by baseball3 on Dec 3, 2021 19:55:35 GMT -5
Yeah I wait on a Kiké extension. Career year. His price tag will be high.
Hopefully Duran is ready is the answer to this thread. I can see the Sox moving on from Kiké after this deal regardless. He's in his 30's.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2021 8:20:59 GMT -5
His OPS+ since 2015, 131, 64, 92, 117, 87, 82, and 107 last year. Let me see him put together two seasons with an above average OPS+ before I commit 60 million. Fairly good chance he just had his career season, if not then we can talk about deals like that. I just don’t see the upside No I'm not giving Schwarber 60 million over four years. Not good enough to stay in the field and if I pay DHs that much they need to have a higher average. I certainly won't understand paying Schwarber after trading Renfroe, I would just have kept him. My focus if we're talking big money, is finding a long-term replacement to JD Martinez. Your middle of the order stud, that has no weaknesses. Not wanting to spend even medium money on Schwarber because he's a DH type and also wanting to save the big money for JDM's replacement is an interesting combination of views! Who is the DH who figures to be so much better than Schwarber? (And bearing in mind that Schwarber and JDM have basically identical wOBAs/wRC+'s since the start of 2019, though Schwarber is 5 and a half years younger.) Why does it have to be a DH? The smart play is likely spending that money on someone that isn't a DH. I'm a fan of keeping Martinez, his injury sure seemed to effect him and he showed you how good he is when healthy towards the end of the year and playoffs. If not I'm fine rolling with Dalbec who had a monster second half and getting him a platoon mate. Renfroe ops+ last three full years 120, 103 and 112 Schwarber 117, 122, 148 Martinez 173, 139, 126 I don't like paying guys after career years and the hardest thing in Baseball is actually telling was that a career year or did he actually become a different hitter? You just watched the guy hit .291 in his Red Sox games, he's never been close to that. Now if he can do that going forward sign me up. Yet he's a career .237 hitter. |
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 4, 2021 9:40:10 GMT -5
Not wanting to spend even medium money on Schwarber because he's a DH type and also wanting to save the big money for JDM's replacement is an interesting combination of views! Who is the DH who figures to be so much better than Schwarber? (And bearing in mind that Schwarber and JDM have basically identical wOBAs/wRC+'s since the start of 2019, though Schwarber is 5 and a half years younger.) Why does it have to be a DH? The smart play is likely spending that money on someone that isn't a DH. I'm a fan of keeping Martinez, his injury sure seemed to effect him and he showed you how good he is when healthy towards the end of the year and playoffs. If not I'm fine rolling with Dalbec who had a monster second half and getting him a platoon mate. Renfroe ops+ last three full years 120, 103 and 112 Schwarber 117, 122, 148 Martinez 173, 139, 126 I don't like paying guys after career years and the hardest thing in Baseball is actually telling was that a career year or did he actually become a different hitter? You just watched the guy hit .291 in his Red Sox games, he's never been close to that. Now if he can do that going forward sign me up. Yet he's a career .237 hitter. Wasn't this the knock on JD when the Sox signed him? He seems like he's improved the last 3 years and really liked hitting at Fenway. Sign the beast. As far as Kiké goes, I'd offer 2/28 and see if he bites. |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2021 12:59:20 GMT -5
Why does it have to be a DH? The smart play is likely spending that money on someone that isn't a DH. I'm a fan of keeping Martinez, his injury sure seemed to effect him and he showed you how good he is when healthy towards the end of the year and playoffs. If not I'm fine rolling with Dalbec who had a monster second half and getting him a platoon mate. Renfroe ops+ last three full years 120, 103 and 112 Schwarber 117, 122, 148 Martinez 173, 139, 126 I don't like paying guys after career years and the hardest thing in Baseball is actually telling was that a career year or did he actually become a different hitter? You just watched the guy hit .291 in his Red Sox games, he's never been close to that. Now if he can do that going forward sign me up. Yet he's a career .237 hitter. Wasn't this the knock on JD when the Sox signed him? He seems like he's improved the last 3 years and really liked hitting at Fenway. Sign the beast. As far as Kiké goes, I'd offer 2/28 and see if he bites. His batting average? He hit .315, .282, .307, and .303 his last four years before we signed him. |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 4, 2021 12:59:34 GMT -5
I mean, two of the last three full seasons he had 4.9 and 3.5 bWAR. That's pretty good, right? Plus he's an incredible, versatile defender and just turned 30.
Would you pay 4/$60m for Schwarber? One year younger but he just had his career high of 3.2 WAR in 2021.
Enrique is a more valuable player who will cost less.
His OPS+ since 2015, 131, 64, 92, 117, 87, 82, and 107 last year. Let me see him put together two seasons with an above average OPS+ before I commit 60 million. Fairly good chance he just had his career season, if not then we can talk about deals like that. I just don’t see the upside No I'm not giving Schwarber 60 million over four years. Not good enough to stay in the field and if I pay DHs that much they need to have a higher average. I certainly won't understand paying Schwarber after trading Renfroe, I would just have kept him. My focus if we're talking big money, is finding a long-term replacement to JD Martinez. Your middle of the order stud, that has no weaknesses. Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know about using OPS+ (or any purely hitting stat) to measure a player's overall value?
If there's one thing that was driven home last season, it was that defense matters, which is why Kiké had 4.9 bWAR last year with a 107 OPS+, while Schwarber had 3.2 bWAR with an OPS+ of 148.
I'm not particularly sold on any one defensive metric and I don't know how it figures into different flavors of WAR but you know defense when you see it, especially when it blows (or saves) a game for you.
|
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2021 13:21:10 GMT -5
His OPS+ since 2015, 131, 64, 92, 117, 87, 82, and 107 last year. Let me see him put together two seasons with an above average OPS+ before I commit 60 million. Fairly good chance he just had his career season, if not then we can talk about deals like that. I just don’t see the upside No I'm not giving Schwarber 60 million over four years. Not good enough to stay in the field and if I pay DHs that much they need to have a higher average. I certainly won't understand paying Schwarber after trading Renfroe, I would just have kept him. My focus if we're talking big money, is finding a long-term replacement to JD Martinez. Your middle of the order stud, that has no weaknesses. Doesn't that tell you everything you need to know about using OPS+ (or any purely hitting stat) to measure a player's overall value?
If there's one thing that was driven home last season, it was that defense matters, which is why Kiké had 4.9 bWAR last year with a 107 OPS+, while Schwarber had 3.2 bWAR with an OPS+ of 148.
I'm not particularly sold on any one defensive metric and I don't know how it figures into different flavors of WAR but you know defense when you see it, especially when it blows (or saves) a game for you.
My issues with a huge Hernandez extension isn't his D, it's his offense. I'm slightly confused because 60% of Hernandez value was on offense given how its adjusted for position. It was 3.2 bwar last year, yet he's also had -.3, .7, .7 and .1. So his offense can take him from a 3-5 bwar player and make him a 1 to 2 plus bwar player. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2021 17:46:11 GMT -5
Wasn't this the knock on JD when the Sox signed him? He seems like he's improved the last 3 years and really liked hitting at Fenway. Sign the beast. As far as Kiké goes, I'd offer 2/28 and see if he bites. His batting average? He hit .315, .282, .307, and .303 his last four years before we signed him. Why batting average, why? |
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 6, 2021 9:42:19 GMT -5
His batting average? He hit .315, .282, .307, and .303 his last four years before we signed him. Why batting average, why? He asked about Martinez before we signed him and I'm not paying $20 million a year to a future DH with a .237 career average. You could just as easily say a guy with a career ops+ of 119 or a guy with only one season with an offensive bwar over 3. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 14:04:45 GMT -5
Why batting average, why? He asked about Martinez before we signed him and I'm not paying $20 million a year to a future DH with a .237 career average. You could just as easily say a guy with a career ops+ of 119 or a guy with only one season with an offensive bwar over 3. Because you brought up Schwarber's batting average first, which completely ignores how he has a very elite walk rate. For the Red Sox last season, Schwarber had a 19.6% BB rate. JDM had a 8.7%. |
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 6, 2021 14:09:22 GMT -5
He asked about Martinez before we signed him and I'm not paying $20 million a year to a future DH with a .237 career average. You could just as easily say a guy with a career ops+ of 119 or a guy with only one season with an offensive bwar over 3. Because you brought up Schwarber's batting average first, which completely ignores how he has a very elite walk rate. For the Red Sox last season, Schwarber had a 19.6% BB rate. JDM had a 8.7%. I’d like to have Schwarber at DH over JDM, truthfully, but we are probably stuck with JDM. I do wonder if we could do a trade in the model of the JBJ trade in reverse: sign Schwarber, trade JDM and maybe a decent prospect (and maybe salary) for something of use but that a trade partner would surrender(middle reliever)? |
|
|
