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I love/hate the Renfroe for JBJ deal!
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Post by agastonguay13 on Dec 6, 2021 7:48:43 GMT -5
For me, I don't grade these trades on *actual* player performance. You can't right away, we all know this.
I grade these kind of trades on what the intention was and where I realistically see it opening opportunities for secondary and tertiary moves later.
To me, Renfroe was a decent player, but 1 of 2 things was going to happen with him. 1: He comes back for '22 at ~$7.5m and has another *solid* year, like '21, and his final Arb# jumps to a NOT reasonable number for a player of his caliber. This means you either pay him more than you'd like to for '23 or trade him for less than you'd get now for him. 2: He comes back for '22 at ~$7.5m and regresses back to what he was prior to '21. Not only will his final Arb# still grow (albeit less than if he'd played well), but he will now have virtually no trade value, and you get nothing for him when he's non-tendered.
Both of those scenarios are less desirable than trading him now for 2 solid to better prospects AND a major league outfielder who you know provides a necessary skillset for your team, and replacing him with *maybe Suzuki*, maybe Schwarber (LF) and moving Verdugo to RF.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 6, 2021 8:06:23 GMT -5
Both of those scenarios are less desirable than trading him now for 2 solid to better prospects AND a major league outfielder who you know provides a necessary skillsets for your team, and replacing him with *maybe Suzuki*, maybe Schwarber (LF) and moving Verdugo to RF. If you sign Schwarber and Suzuki, Schwarber is probably at 1B and Suzuki is in RF. The CBA will tell us all we need to know about resigning Schwarber. If the NL implements the DH rule, Schwarber is gone. You probably won't match what a NL team with a open vacancy might be willing to throw out there. Could be wrong, but the Nationals for example loved Schwarber in his time there. All of a sudden he fits a lot better with a DH.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2021 8:24:01 GMT -5
I gave it a C. It conceptually makes sense to me, but I didn’t think they got enough value back (either should have asked Milwaukee to pick up some of Bradley’s contract or gotten a better prospect package back) and can’t assume that they’ll sign someone to fill the RF void, especially with the likelihood of a long lockout.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 6, 2021 8:42:41 GMT -5
can’t assume that they’ll sign someone to fill the RF void, especially with the likelihood of a long lockout. I agree that you can't assume that you can fill RF void. All hope at this point, but does the lockout actually decrease the Sox chances of landing someone? Probably not, right?
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2021 8:59:08 GMT -5
can’t assume that they’ll sign someone to fill the RF void, especially with the likelihood of a long lockout. I agree that you can't assume that you can fill RF void. All hope at this point, but does the lockout actually decrease the Sox chances of landing someone? Probably not, right? It just introduces risk. Maybe new CBA terms cause some teams that weren’t previously in the market to jump in, maybe it drags on so long that Suzuki stays in Japan for another year, etc.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 6, 2021 9:41:56 GMT -5
What? There is a 100% chance that Renfroe would have been tendered. Extremely soft disagree. It would've been a surprise and I've have panned it but I do think it was on the table. Would've been if, say, they wanted to sign him to some kind of multi-year deal at lower money or something.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2021 10:08:45 GMT -5
What? There is a 100% chance that Renfroe would have been tendered. Extremely soft disagree. It would've been a surprise and I've have panned it but I do think it was on the table. Would've been if, say, they wanted to sign him to some kind of multi-year deal at lower money or something. There is zero chance Bloom loses an asset for nothing by non-tendering him. Even if you want to extend him or trade him, you start by tendering him a contract to keep his rights.
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Post by orcoaster on Dec 6, 2021 13:47:58 GMT -5
I gave the trade an A-.
You can't give it an incomplete because the trade is not incomplete. There are no Ptbnl. You can't ask for more time because the evaluation has to take place using the present value of the players involved, both the actual value (to be revealed in time) and the perceived value (the present value in the marketplace.) In time, the answer will be obvious. Bloom doesn't get to go back in time to make trades. He has to make them now. He thinks this one delivers value for the Red Sox. I agree.
One, I think it's very likely that Renfroe and JBJ deliver roughly 2-2.5 WAR in 2022. It's a wash except for the shape of that value. The Red Sox get less offense and more defense, clearly addressing a weakness of the 2021 team. It also gives them the flexibility they wanted for Kiké when they signed him. Both Kiké and the Red Sox expected him to be playing mostly second base. Kiké's goal for last season was to win a GG at second. Unfortunately, no one else on the team could play center. Now that problem is solved. This move heralds more to come for sure, but we don't need to know what they are to evaluate this trade as a positive for the 2022 team.
The money is more, but it is not that much more and it is short money. JBJ will earn $2M more than Renfroe this season, and if he performs as Bloom expects, JBJ could opt out. If he doesn't, it's a two year deal.
Obviously, the prospects are the key, especially given that Milwaukee received other offers for JBJ that didn't include any prospects. Binelas looks like a legitimate prospect -- present power, good speed, good arm, professional success, pedigree, very young, good character. The Red Sox have liked him for a while. He's a Milwaukee kid who is excited to be a Red Sox. Looks like there's something there.
Hamilton looks like organizational filler to me. He could play a Dave Roberts role one day, but that looks like his ceiling. Still, not a bad player to have.
This is a sneaky smart sell high/buy low deal that is Bloom's bread and butter. My only criticism is that it seems like he could have/should have been able to get a better prospect than Hamilton as the sweetener. The Red Sox obviously highly value Binelas, but how much did the Brewers or the rest of the league value him? Buying low means paying low and it seems like they could have paid less to get Binelas. OTOH, maybe it's a wonder Bloom got any sweetener at all. Regardless, great move. I look forward to more just like it.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 6, 2021 13:52:42 GMT -5
If the curve is the Benintendi trade then this is an A+. The Benintendi trade was a bad one. They sold low and somehow the Mets still ended up with Khalil Lee even though the Sox could’ve got him.
The Red Sox sold high on Renfroe in my view. He looked bad in the playoffs and is more of a platoon guy. Bradley is a bad contract, I get it. The way I look at it though they got a top 20 prospect for a platoon guy and then another top 20 prospect for taking on Bradley’s contract. Bradley may bounce back but even if he doesn’t they can use him defensively. When Renfroe can’t hit he is useless.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 13:55:13 GMT -5
I gave it a C. It conceptually makes sense to me, but I didnât think they got enough value back (either should have asked Milwaukee to pick up some of Bradleyâs contract or gotten a better prospect package back) and canât assume that theyâll sign someone to fill the RF void, especially with the likelihood of a long lockout. Whither Duran, is what I want to know.
With both Kiké and JBJ on the team, he's even more expendable, and it could make good sense to trade him (which I have been half-expecting this offseason - almost as strongly as I expected a Renfroe trade).
But! If the team is still fairly high on Duran, then maybe they don't make an outfield addition, with the notion that Duran can play LF at some point while Verdugo/JBJ handle right and Kiké/JBJ handle center. So that's a plausible scenario where they don't fill the RF void by free agent signing.
The issue there is that Bloom has more or less said (and logic would indicate) that they need to add a bat to the lineup, and if they don't do it in the OF then they'll have to do it in the infield, and of the guys who are left I think that pretty much comes down to... Correa, as I don't see anyone else who can replace the loss of Schwarber's/Renfroe's production.
So: add an outfielder, or add Correa. I think those are the options. Still, I'd be pretty surprised if they add Correa.
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Post by manfred on Dec 6, 2021 14:04:25 GMT -5
I gave it a C. It conceptually makes sense to me, but I didnât think they got enough value back (either should have asked Milwaukee to pick up some of Bradleyâs contract or gotten a better prospect package back) and canât assume that theyâll sign someone to fill the RF void, especially with the likelihood of a long lockout. Whither Duran, is what I want to know.
With both Kiké and JBJ on the team, he's even more expendable, and it could make good sense to trade him (which I have been half-expecting this offseason - almost as strongly as I expected a Renfroe trade).
But! If the team is still fairly high on Duran, then maybe they don't make an outfield addition, with the notion that Duran can play LF at some point while Verdugo/JBJ handle right and Kiké/JBJ handle center. So that's a plausible scenario where they don't fill the RF void by free agent signing.
The issue there is that Bloom has more or less said (and logic would indicate) that they need to add a bat to the lineup, and if they don't do it in the OF then they'll have to do it in the infield, and of the guys who are left I think that pretty much comes down to... Correa, as I don't see anyone else who can replace the loss of Schwarber's/Renfroe's production.
So: add an outfielder, or add Correa. I think those are the options. Still, I'd be pretty surprised if they add Correa.
Verdugo, JBJ, and Duran is way too lefty heavy. They have to have a righty as the third to whichever two of that group is the front line. Even a platoon-y righty.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 14:18:00 GMT -5
Whither Duran, is what I want to know.
With both Kiké and JBJ on the team, he's even more expendable, and it could make good sense to trade him (which I have been half-expecting this offseason - almost as strongly as I expected a Renfroe trade).
But! If the team is still fairly high on Duran, then maybe they don't make an outfield addition, with the notion that Duran can play LF at some point while Verdugo/JBJ handle right and Kiké/JBJ handle center. So that's a plausible scenario where they don't fill the RF void by free agent signing.
The issue there is that Bloom has more or less said (and logic would indicate) that they need to add a bat to the lineup, and if they don't do it in the OF then they'll have to do it in the infield, and of the guys who are left I think that pretty much comes down to... Correa, as I don't see anyone else who can replace the loss of Schwarber's/Renfroe's production.
So: add an outfielder, or add Correa. I think those are the options. Still, I'd be pretty surprised if they add Correa.
Verdugo, JBJ, and Duran is way too lefty heavy. They have to have a righty as the third to whichever two of that group is the front line. Even a platoon-y righty. Hmm, maybe you're right. In any case, they'd need to sign another guy who could play OF regardless, and in this scenario that could be a platoon-y righty, though now that I'm looking at the FAs that are left, it's a pretty thin market if you want to go cheap (i.e., not Castellanos or Bryant). McCutchen? Soler? Blech.
But the more I think about it, the more Tommy Pham makes sense as a Plan C (after Schwarber and Suzuki).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 14:18:52 GMT -5
Whither Duran, is what I want to know.
With both Kiké and JBJ on the team, he's even more expendable, and it could make good sense to trade him (which I have been half-expecting this offseason - almost as strongly as I expected a Renfroe trade).
But! If the team is still fairly high on Duran, then maybe they don't make an outfield addition, with the notion that Duran can play LF at some point while Verdugo/JBJ handle right and Kiké/JBJ handle center. So that's a plausible scenario where they don't fill the RF void by free agent signing.
The issue there is that Bloom has more or less said (and logic would indicate) that they need to add a bat to the lineup, and if they don't do it in the OF then they'll have to do it in the infield, and of the guys who are left I think that pretty much comes down to... Correa, as I don't see anyone else who can replace the loss of Schwarber's/Renfroe's production.
So: add an outfielder, or add Correa. I think those are the options. Still, I'd be pretty surprised if they add Correa.
Verdugo, JBJ, and Duran is way too lefty heavy. They have to have a righty as the third to whichever two of that group is the front line. Even a platoon-y righty. Suzuki or Duvall. EDIT: ... or McCutchen. He's a LHP assassin. Pham actually had reverse splits (and his D is just as bad as Cutch's).
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 14:36:44 GMT -5
Pham ain't got no reverse splits. 135 wRC+ against lefties, 117 against righties in his career. Defensive stats seem to tell their usual ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ story, but I'm sure he could handle LF with either Verdugo or JBJ in RF.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 14:38:27 GMT -5
I can't stop thinking about @salty's finding that Suzuki is following the Sox on IG and no other team -- and I'm not even that high on Suzuki! Can teams talk to players who are not in the union? Can they strike deals with players who are not in the union? If Suzuki signed a deal now, would the union black-ball him? Could the Sox sign him to a $50m minor-league deal? That would be awesome. I'm pretty high on him after watching some YouTube highlights 😂Just looks to have a Fenway swing, idk. Okay, clearly the answers to those first two questions are "Yes," as lots of minor league deals are being struck. I doubt any of those guys are going to get blackballed, either...
So how about this: Sign Suzuki to a minor league deal with a $50-60m signing bonus. When the dust settles on the lockout and the season starts, he gets called up, added to the 40-man (and joins the union), and gets the league minimum and goes through the normal year-by-year salary progression of a prospect in his pre-arb and arb years.
Now the question becomes: since it's a minor-league deal, would the signing bonus only count against this year's CBT cap? How could they prorate it if there's no major league contract with "x" number of years to prorate it over?
It's crazy enough that it might work!
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 14:42:22 GMT -5
I'm pretty high on him after watching some YouTube highlights 😂Just looks to have a Fenway swing, idk. Okay, clearly the answers to those first two questions are "Yes," as lots of minor league deals are being struck. I doubt any of those guys are going to get blackballed, either...
So how about this: Sign Suzuki to a minor league deal with a $50-60m signing bonus. When the dust settles on the lockout and the season starts, he gets called up, added to the 40-man (and joins the union), and gets the league minimum and goes through the normal year-by-year salary progression of a prospect in his pre-arb and arb years.
Now the question becomes: since it's a minor-league deal, would the signing bonus only count against this year's CBT cap? How could they prorate it if there's no major league contract with "x" number of years to prorate it over?
It's crazy enough that it might work!
That sounds like one of those events that the commissioner overrides blatant shenanigans to circumvent the rules, if it's even possible. I doubt it is, nor should it be.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 6, 2021 14:42:22 GMT -5
The fact that nobody even considered that the plan is for the 25 year old Duran to take over a starting job really goes to show that his ultra-high prospect rankings are not really reflective of reality.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 6, 2021 14:44:27 GMT -5
The fact that nobody even considered that the plan is for the 25 year old Duran to take over a starting job really goes to show that his ultra-high prospect rankings are not really reflective of reality. No one is talking about Triston Casas taking over at first base on opening day, either. There's a difference between thinking a prospect is good and thinking he is ready.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Dec 6, 2021 14:49:26 GMT -5
If the curve is the Benintendi trade then this is an A+. The Benintendi trade was a bad one. They sold low and somehow the Mets still ended up with Khalil Lee even though the Sox could’ve got him. The Red Sox sold high on Renfroe in my view. He looked bad in the playoffs and is more of a platoon guy. Bradley is a bad contract, I get it. The way I look at it though they got a top 20 prospect for a platoon guy and then another top 20 prospect for taking on Bradley’s contract. Bradley may bounce back but even if he doesn’t they can use him defensively. When Renfroe can’t hit he is useless. It seems so far Bloom likes quantity over quality - get as many players as possible and see what sticks.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 14:49:46 GMT -5
Pham ain't got no reverse splits. 135 wRC+ against lefties, 117 against righties in his career. Defensive stats seem to tell their usual ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ story, but I'm sure he could handle LF with either Verdugo or JBJ in RF. If you're going to go career stats here with Pham vs. McCutchen, you're going to lose (just for the record, Cutch has a 158 wRC+ vs. LHP for his career and 123 vs. RHP).
I'm more interested (and so are projection models, for obvious reasons) in what you've done for me lately.
I believe it's common to weight stats as 60% of the previous year, 30% the year before that, and 10% the year before that, but it's easier just to look at last year.
In 2021, Pham had reverse splits (94 vs. LHP and 104 vs. RHP) and Cutch was still a LHP killer (168 vs. LHP and 76 vs. RHP). Both in about 560 PAs. I'll take the former MVP who does it more consistently.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 14:51:02 GMT -5
The fact that nobody even considered that the plan is for the 25 year old Duran to take over a starting job really goes to show that his ultra-high prospect rankings are not really reflective of reality. I don't think the Red Sox will ever do that again with any prospect without a lot of other options in case it doesn't work out. Doesn't matter who the prospect is. Remember JBJ in 2014 when the Red Sox had Grady Sizemore as the other option?
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Post by manfred on Dec 6, 2021 14:54:13 GMT -5
Verdugo, JBJ, and Duran is way too lefty heavy. They have to have a righty as the third to whichever two of that group is the front line. Even a platoon-y righty. Hmm, maybe you're right. In any case, they'd need to sign another guy who could play OF regardless, and in this scenario that could be a platoon-y righty, though now that I'm looking at the FAs that are left, it's a pretty thin market if you want to go cheap (i.e., not Castellanos or Bryant). McCutchen? Soler? Blech.
But the more I think about it, the more Tommy Pham makes sense as a Plan C (after Schwarber and Suzuki).
I have been trying to make this case all along! The “we have a better replacement in the works” argument doesn’t account for the fact that there are few better options. Castellanos and Bryant are big investments, but they are definitely big steps up. I am not at all enthusiastic about Cutch, Pham, or Soler. Suzuki is a huge x-factor and could be really exciting. Schwarber I like but still leaves you short a righty. It kind of feels like they *have* to sign Suzuki for the best outcome.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Dec 6, 2021 14:54:55 GMT -5
Could the WIL MYERS be part of another trade ?
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 14:57:31 GMT -5
Pham ain't got no reverse splits. 135 wRC+ against lefties, 117 against righties in his career. Defensive stats seem to tell their usual ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ story, but I'm sure he could handle LF with either Verdugo or JBJ in RF. If you're going to go career stats here with Pham vs. McCutchen, you're going to lose (just for the record, Cutch has a 158 wRC+ vs. LHP for his career and 123 vs. RHP).
I'm more interested (and so are projection models, for obvious reasons) in what you've done for me lately.
I believe it's common to weight stats as 60% of the previous year, 30% the year before that, and 10% the year before that, but it's easier just to look at last year.
In 2021, Pham had reverse splits (94 vs. LHP and 104 vs. RHP) and Cutch was still a LHP killer (168 vs. LHP and 76 vs. RHP). Both in about 560 PAs. I'll take the former MVP who does it more consistently.
No no, recent stats are a better barometer for expected future performance, but not recent handedness splits. Those take a ton of PAs to stabilize. In the long run almost every player has normal handedness splits, and you'd want to see a really large sample size to believe it. It would be very silly to take a 10-point wRC+ split over one season as predictive when that player has a normal split over his career.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 14:57:49 GMT -5
Steamer Projections 2022:
Pham 2.2 fWAR Renfroe 1.3 fWAR
Also, I've always used McCutchen as a comp for how Mookie's career could go.
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