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I love/hate the Renfroe for JBJ deal!
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Post by manfred on Dec 6, 2021 15:04:52 GMT -5
Steamer Projections 2022: Pham 2.2 fWAR Renfroe 1.3 fWAR Also, I've always used McCutchen as a comp for how Mookie's career could go. Pham also made about $9 million last year. So you put his steamer projection and JBJ’s together, you are looking at about 2.5 WAR for $20 million. Not terrible, but not great. Not as cost efficient as Tenfroe’s 1.3 at ~$7 million. Pham is a weird player. He’s had some really good years and some brutal years. I’m not huge on getting him, but I won’t blast it. He could either be useless or be one of those guys who really maxes his ability in this lineup and ballpark. So hard to say.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 15:09:53 GMT -5
Hmm, maybe you're right. In any case, they'd need to sign another guy who could play OF regardless, and in this scenario that could be a platoon-y righty, though now that I'm looking at the FAs that are left, it's a pretty thin market if you want to go cheap (i.e., not Castellanos or Bryant). McCutchen? Soler? Blech.
But the more I think about it, the more Tommy Pham makes sense as a Plan C (after Schwarber and Suzuki).
I have been trying to make this case all along! The âwe have a better replacement in the worksâ argument doesnât account for the fact that there are few better options. Castellanos and Bryant are big investments, but they are definitely big steps up. I am not at all enthusiastic about Cutch, Pham, or Soler. Suzuki is a huge x-factor and could be really exciting. Schwarber I like but still leaves you short a righty. It kind of feels like they *have* to sign Suzuki for the best outcome. Well, if you think Verdugo-Duran-Kiké-JBJ is too lefty-heavy then I retract my Duran suggestion and return to the point that they will replace Renfroe. There may not be a lot of options but they only need one to work: Schwarber, Suzuki, Pham... (You're not a Pham fan, okay; but he projects better than Renfroe and he'll probably cost about the same over the next two years - fangraphs predicts 2/20). And there are only so many big-spending teams out there who need a RFer...
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 15:10:43 GMT -5
Steamer Projections 2022: Pham 2.2 fWAR Renfroe 1.3 fWAR Also, I've always used McCutchen as a comp for how Mookie's career could go. Pham also made about $9 million last year. So you put his steamer projection and JBJ’s together, you are looking at about 2.5 WAR for $20 million. Not terrible, but not great. Not as cost efficient as Tenfroe’s 1.3 at ~$7 million. Pham is a weird player. He’s had some really good years and some brutal years. I’m not huge on getting him, but I won’t blast it. He could either be useless or be one of those guys who really maxes his ability in this lineup and ballpark. So hard to say. With Bloom making the trade for JBJ, it's pretty likely that they do not care about how much they spend this year so I also do not care. I just made the post for all of the people who think Renfroe is so hard to replace. Pham sounds a bit like Renfroe then, doesn't he? Except better? Also, having JBJ as a backup CF/RF is a big defensive upgrade over last season, in which they did not have a good backup for either CF or Fenway's RF. Putting someone like Renfroe in CF probably puts him at negative WAR. Same with Verdugo.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 15:15:31 GMT -5
Steamer Projections 2022: Pham 2.2 fWAR Renfroe 1.3 fWAR Also, I've always used McCutchen as a comp for how Mookie's career could go. Pham also made about $9 million last year. So you put his steamer projection and JBJ’s together, you are looking at about 2.5 WAR for $20 million. Not terrible, but not great. Not as cost efficient as Tenfroe’s 1.3 at ~$7 million. Pham is a weird player. He’s had some really good years and some brutal years. I’m not huge on getting him, but I won’t blast it. He could either be useless or be one of those guys who really maxes his ability in this lineup and ballpark. So hard to say. You can't just combine JBJ's salary with some hypothetical player and compare that to Renfroe, because we know they took on JBJ's salary to buy prospects. It is understood that you are against that. (Schwarber or Suzuki would look bad in this $/WAR comparison too.)
So moving on from that, the question is what would be a worthwhile replacement for Renfroe? How about a player that projects to be better and cost about the same over the next two seasons? Pham fits the bill there.
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Post by dajubaisasoxfan on Dec 6, 2021 15:21:22 GMT -5
If they sign Schwarber to play 1B/LF & become JD’s future replacement at DH (so 5yrs $100m) and are able to acquire someone who can play SS/2B (preferably a switch hitter but not a must) that’s under control for 3 yrs and are able to acquire a legit back end Closer (even if only for 1 year) this trade is an A if not an F.
If all they do is sign Schwarber & fill the rest with the “throw the spaghetti at the wall & see what sticks” method it’s a D.
If all they do is sign Schwarber & return Iglesias (or 1 of the many similar SS/2B free agents available) & stick with the “throw the spaghetti at the wall & see what sticks” method for the Pitching staff - I believe this to be most likely- it’s a C.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 15:47:55 GMT -5
If they sign Schwarber to play 1B/LF & become JD’s future replacement at DH (so 5yrs $100m) and are able to acquire someone who can play SS/2B (preferably a switch hitter but not a must) that’s under control for 3 yrs and are able to acquire a legit back end Closer (even if only for 1 year) this trade is an A if not an F. If all they do is sign Schwarber & fill the rest with the “throw the spaghetti at the wall & see what sticks” method it’s a D. If all they do is sign Schwarber & return Iglesias (or 1 of the many similar SS/2B free agents available) & stick with the “throw the spaghetti at the wall & see what sticks” method for the Pitching staff - I believe this to be most likely- it’s a C. So wait. The difference between this trade being a C and it being an A is whether or not they sign a closer?
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Post by dajubaisasoxfan on Dec 6, 2021 15:54:57 GMT -5
If they sign Schwarber to play 1B/LF & become JD’s future replacement at DH (so 5yrs $100m) and are able to acquire someone who can play SS/2B (preferably a switch hitter but not a must) that’s under control for 3 yrs and are able to acquire a legit back end Closer (even if only for 1 year) this trade is an A if not an F. If all they do is sign Schwarber & fill the rest with the “throw the spaghetti at the wall & see what sticks” method it’s a D. If all they do is sign Schwarber & return Iglesias (or 1 of the many similar SS/2B free agents available) & stick with the “throw the spaghetti at the wall & see what sticks” method for the Pitching staff - I believe this to be most likely- it’s a C. So wait. The difference between this trade being a C and it being an A is whether or not they sign a closer? No, Hope that helps you, and yes I realize they just got Hamilton
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 6, 2021 16:14:36 GMT -5
So wait. The difference between this trade being a C and it being an A is whether or not they sign a closer? No, Hope that helps you, and yes I realize they just got Hamilton What does an infielder have to do with this trade either though?
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Post by incandenza on Dec 6, 2021 16:53:07 GMT -5
So wait. The difference between this trade being a C and it being an A is whether or not they sign a closer? No, Hope that helps you, and yes I realize they just got Hamilton
Correa 5.2 Story 3.6 Simmons 1.5
Iglesias 1.5 Villar 1.2 Iglesias 1.2 Solano 1.0 Lowrie 0.9 Miller 0.9
So to be more accurate: if they sign one of these guys (but not Iglesias?) to a 3-year deal plus a closer the Renfroe trade is an A, but if they sign Iglesias and no closer the Renfroe trade is a C? And then if they sign Schwarber rather than Iglesias the trade is a D?
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2021 16:57:49 GMT -5
I'm pretty high on him after watching some YouTube highlights 😂Just looks to have a Fenway swing, idk. Okay, clearly the answers to those first two questions are "Yes," as lots of minor league deals are being struck. I doubt any of those guys are going to get blackballed, either... So how about this: Sign Suzuki to a minor league deal with a $50-60m signing bonus. When the dust settles on the lockout and the season starts, he gets called up, added to the 40-man (and joins the union), and gets the league minimum and goes through the normal year-by-year salary progression of a prospect in his pre-arb and arb years.
Now the question becomes: since it's a minor-league deal, would the signing bonus only count against this year's CBT cap? How could they prorate it if there's no major league contract with "x" number of years to prorate it over? It's crazy enough that it might work!
This doesn’t work. NPB players must be signed through the posting process (which is suspended on account of the lockout) and cannot be signed as minor league free agents.
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Post by dajubaisasoxfan on Dec 6, 2021 17:18:24 GMT -5
No, Hope that helps you, and yes I realize they just got Hamilton
Correa 5.2 Story 3.6 Simmons 1.5
Iglesias 1.5 Villar 1.2 Iglesias 1.2 Solano 1.0 Lowrie 0.9 Miller 0.9
So to be more accurate: if they sign one of these guys (but not Iglesias?) to a 3-year deal plus a closer the Renfroe trade is an A, but if they sign Iglesias and no closer the Renfroe trade is a C? And then if they sign Schwarber rather than Iglesias the trade is a D?
No, So to be more accurate: Because I view acquiring a player under control for 3 years completely different from signing a player for 3 years. Hope that helps you
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 17:22:31 GMT -5
Okay, clearly the answers to those first two questions are "Yes," as lots of minor league deals are being struck. I doubt any of those guys are going to get blackballed, either... So how about this: Sign Suzuki to a minor league deal with a $50-60m signing bonus. When the dust settles on the lockout and the season starts, he gets called up, added to the 40-man (and joins the union), and gets the league minimum and goes through the normal year-by-year salary progression of a prospect in his pre-arb and arb years.
Now the question becomes: since it's a minor-league deal, would the signing bonus only count against this year's CBT cap? How could they prorate it if there's no major league contract with "x" number of years to prorate it over? It's crazy enough that it might work!
This doesn’t work. NPB players must be signed through the posting process (which is suspended on account of the lockout) and cannot be signed as minor league free agents. Yeah, I wondered that after posting it.
Still very interesting that he's following the Sox on IG and no other teams (or maybe he's added more since then? I can't check, as I'm too old to do any of that stuff).
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 17:29:29 GMT -5
Are we rating the Renfroe trade or Chaim Bloom's entire career?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 6, 2021 17:43:24 GMT -5
If you're going to go career stats here with Pham vs. McCutchen, you're going to lose (just for the record, Cutch has a 158 wRC+ vs. LHP for his career and 123 vs. RHP).
I'm more interested (and so are projection models, for obvious reasons) in what you've done for me lately.
I believe it's common to weight stats as 60% of the previous year, 30% the year before that, and 10% the year before that, but it's easier just to look at last year.
In 2021, Pham had reverse splits (94 vs. LHP and 104 vs. RHP) and Cutch was still a LHP killer (168 vs. LHP and 76 vs. RHP). Both in about 560 PAs. I'll take the former MVP who does it more consistently.
No no, recent stats are a better barometer for expected future performance, but not recent handedness splits. Those take a ton of PAs to stabilize. In the long run almost every player has normal handedness splits, and you'd want to see a really large sample size to believe it. It would be very silly to take a 10-point wRC+ split over one season as predictive when that player has a normal split over his career. Fine. I still want the guy who's a more consistent and damaging LHP killer, which is Cutch. It also helps to define his role a little better from the get-go.
In terms of signability, Pham turns 34 in March and is going to want to maximize his career earnings ($22m to date) at all costs. Signing a platoon-ish, possibly 1-year deal is not going to do that (is Chaim even going to want to go more than one year?).
Meanwhile, Cutch, who just turned 35, already has everything (including 9 figures and an MVP) except a ring. He might be more willing to go one year with an obvious contender in a platoon role, as opposed to the absolute highest bidder for maximum ABs.
To me, Cutch makes more sense than Pham, particularly if they're looking for a role-player. If they're looking for a full-time RHH OF, then go out and take a chance on Suzuki.
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Post by saltalamacchia4mvp on Dec 6, 2021 17:56:56 GMT -5
This doesn’t work. NPB players must be signed through the posting process (which is suspended on account of the lockout) and cannot be signed as minor league free agents. Yeah, I wondered that after posting it.
Still very interesting that he's following the Sox on IG and no other teams (or maybe he's added more since then? I can't check, as I'm too old to do any of that stuff).
Still only the Red Sox - he is following a few players which include JD and Big Papi. Again, could be something or could be nothing but fun nonetheless to speculate.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 6, 2021 18:26:32 GMT -5
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Dec 6, 2021 18:38:02 GMT -5
I gave it an A++++++ : D
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 19:41:19 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 19:57:39 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often. The point was to use projections, any projections, rather than last season and just expecting duplication.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 20:03:56 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often. The point was to use projections, any projections, rather than last season and just expecting duplication. I get it, it just gets to the point where they are being used to say this guy IS this and this guy IS that and because of that etc etc etc. When these projections mean very little.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2021 20:09:35 GMT -5
The point was to use projections, any projections, rather than last season and just expecting duplication. I get it, it just gets to the point where they are being used to say this guy IS this and this guy IS that and because of that etc etc etc. When these projections mean very little. Everyone is debating that what they believe IS right, which is basically an extension of exactly what you're saying in any direction you wish. Projections mean little, what anyone thinks means little, etc. As long as we all agree to debate the future rather than last season's results, I'm good. And there cannot be a right answer until next season is over.
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Post by manfred on Dec 6, 2021 20:10:23 GMT -5
The point was to use projections, any projections, rather than last season and just expecting duplication. I get it, it just gets to the point where they are being used to say this guy IS this and this guy IS that and because of that etc etc etc. When these projections mean very little. It seems sort of hard to talk about a trade if recent stats don’t mean anything and projections are worthless. I guess it is pure faith.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2021 20:12:11 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often. Major league baseball literally just proposed using fWAR to determine player salaries in arbitration, and, while the publicly-available projection systems aren't as sophisticated as ones used by teams, they're the best we've got. So until Chaim opens the vault, yes, they're the best starting point to predict player performance. Certainly better than evaluating Renfroe based on how many RBIs he had last year.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2021 20:27:35 GMT -5
The point was to use projections, any projections, rather than last season and just expecting duplication. I get it, it just gets to the point where they are being used to say this guy IS this and this guy IS that and because of that etc etc etc. When these projections mean very little. It's a fair point that the shorthand makes projections sound more bulletproof than they are. They're super uncertain and it's totally fair to disagree with a particular player's projection. But they're the best starting point we have.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 21:49:42 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often. Major league baseball literally just proposed using fWAR to determine player salaries in arbitration, and, while the publicly-available projection systems aren't as sophisticated as ones used by teams, they're the best we've got. So until Chaim opens the vault, yes, they're the best starting point to predict player performance. Certainly better than evaluating Renfroe based on how many RBIs he had last year. Keyword in my post would be projections correct? I don't think they plan on paying people based on projections quite yet.
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