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2022 Red Sox Projections from various sources
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 3, 2022 9:48:08 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 3, 2022 9:57:06 GMT -5
I know projections for rehabbing and hurt players are tough but they project sale at 91 innings and Paxton at 86. I'm sorry but that's just absurd and stupid if you ask me. Sale theoretically is going to be ready day 1. We may see Paxton in August?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 3, 2022 10:36:38 GMT -5
I know projections for rehabbing and hurt players are tough but they project sale at 91 innings and Paxton at 86. I'm sorry but that's just absurd and stupid if you ask me. Sale theoretically is going to be ready day 1. We may see Paxton in August? ZIPS is just looking at their performance record and doesn't know the specifics of their injury history. It's going to miss the mark when that information is important.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 3, 2022 11:07:22 GMT -5
I know projections for rehabbing and hurt players are tough but they project sale at 91 innings and Paxton at 86. I'm sorry but that's just absurd and stupid if you ask me. Sale theoretically is going to be ready day 1. We may see Paxton in August? ZIPS is just looking at their performance record and doesn't know the specifics of their injury history. It's going to miss the mark when that information is important. Fair and yea its just a projection but I have a hard time putting any stock in it if it took me 30 seconds to see something like that. Not sure what the answer is but perhaps they need to work on adding some extra stuff to factor in injuries.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 3, 2022 11:24:54 GMT -5
Also, I don't think it'd be crazy for a projection system to look at his IP the last four years (158, 147.1, 0, 42.2) and think he might not make 100 innings. It appears to have done similar with Paxton (160.1, 150, 20.1, 1.1).
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2022 12:46:49 GMT -5
I'd be much more concerned about a projection system that saw a guy throw 42 innings over the previous two seasons and put him in for 160. The Red Sox have great top-end talent but serious durability concerns, and the projection systems highlight them pretty well.
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Post by jmei on Jan 3, 2022 13:07:19 GMT -5
Just ignore playing time projections from automated projection systems.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 3, 2022 13:36:32 GMT -5
I know projections for rehabbing and hurt players are tough but they project sale at 91 innings and Paxton at 86. I'm sorry but that's just absurd and stupid if you ask me. Sale theoretically is going to be ready day 1. We may see Paxton in August? Must be figuring on a long lockout...😊
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 3, 2022 21:54:00 GMT -5
Frankly, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if Paxton matches Sale's 42 IP from last year. They're going to be taking it easy with Big Maple, just like they did with Sale.
EDIT: I would add that the Sox had some exceptional good fortune when it came to rotation durability in 2021, with six guys accounting for 150 of their 162 starts (and 9 of the remaining 12 came from Sale). You don't want to see regression to the mean but it wouldn't be surprising.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 4, 2022 11:57:33 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition.
Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 4, 2022 12:45:23 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition. Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF. When I look at mlbtraderumors.com and they have their chats I'm always surprised at how they don't connect Suzuki to the Red Sox and have Schwarber more likely to return. They have Suzuki most likely to wind up in Texas or on the West Coast. I don't think the Sox are a slam dunk by any means but I think they have greater interest than indicated and are at least a reasonable possibility. I doubt Verdugo winds up in RF. Likely they either get a RF, Suzuki most likely, and they start off with JBJ in CF (don't buy that 4th OF stuff) and Hernandez at 2b. Maybe I'm wrong and JBJ is the 4th OF and Arroyo is the starting 2b. I'm just not sold on that or that. Maybe the Sox get a cheap option like Iglesias or Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie (don't see McNeil there although I think his bat would fit well). But perhaps if they don't wind up with Suzuki they enter into a 3 year deal with Story and they wind up with Hernandez and JBJ manning CF and RF (I'd guess JBJ winds up in CF with Hernandez in RF?) But I think those scenarios are more likely than the Sox bringing back Schwarber in LF (or Soler or Pham) and pushing Verdugo back into RF.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,992
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Post by jimoh on Jan 4, 2022 13:30:52 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition. Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF. When I look at mlbtraderumors.com and they have their chats I'm always surprised at how they don't connect Suzuki to the Red Sox and have Schwarber more likely to return. They have Suzuki most likely to wind up in Texas or on the West Coast. I don't think the Sox are a slam dunk by any means but I think they have greater interest than indicated and are at least a reasonable possibility. I doubt Verdugo winds up in RF. Likely they either get a RF, Suzuki most likely, and they start off with JBJ in CF (don't buy that 4th OF stuff) and Hernandez at 2b. Maybe I'm wrong and JBJ is the 4th OF and Arroyo is the starting 2b. I'm just not sold on that or that. Maybe the Sox get a cheap option like Iglesias or Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie (don't see McNeil there although I think his bat would fit well). But perhaps if they don't wind up with Suzuki they enter into a 3 year deal with Story and they wind up with Hernandez and JBJ manning CF and RF (I'd guess JBJ winds up in CF with Hernandez in RF?) But I think those scenarios are more likely than the Sox bringing back Schwarber in LF (or Soler or Pham) and pushing Verdugo back into RF. I think Verdugo at his physical best can play a good RF as he did in 2020. If I were starting Kiké and JBJ in the OF I would have JBJ in RF. Kiké has less experience in RF (75 games, 35 starts) and JBJ has the better arm. For a former/part-time infielder to track balls in the OF, CF is easier, and Fenway's RF could be a big challenge. Kiké's defensive excellence in CF was a surprise last year; I would not mess with it. But JBJ is just a 4th OF or 9th inning OF if he hits poorly, as he may.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 4, 2022 14:18:36 GMT -5
When I look at mlbtraderumors.com and they have their chats I'm always surprised at how they don't connect Suzuki to the Red Sox and have Schwarber more likely to return. They have Suzuki most likely to wind up in Texas or on the West Coast. I don't think the Sox are a slam dunk by any means but I think they have greater interest than indicated and are at least a reasonable possibility. I doubt Verdugo winds up in RF. Likely they either get a RF, Suzuki most likely, and they start off with JBJ in CF (don't buy that 4th OF stuff) and Hernandez at 2b. Maybe I'm wrong and JBJ is the 4th OF and Arroyo is the starting 2b. I'm just not sold on that or that. Maybe the Sox get a cheap option like Iglesias or Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie (don't see McNeil there although I think his bat would fit well). But perhaps if they don't wind up with Suzuki they enter into a 3 year deal with Story and they wind up with Hernandez and JBJ manning CF and RF (I'd guess JBJ winds up in CF with Hernandez in RF?) But I think those scenarios are more likely than the Sox bringing back Schwarber in LF (or Soler or Pham) and pushing Verdugo back into RF. I think Verdugo at his physical best can play a good RF as he did in 2020. If I were starting Kiké and JBJ in the OF I would have JBJ in RF. Kiké has less experience in RF (75 games, 35 starts) and JBJ has the better arm. For a former/part-time infielder to track balls in the OF, CF is easier, and Fenway's RF could be a big challenge. Kiké's defensive excellence in CF was a surprise last year; I would not mess with it. But JBJ is just a 4th OF or 9th inning OF if he hits poorly, as he may. Verdugo isn't usually 100% too often. I think playing RF versus LF could wear him out more, but yeah, if he's healthy he should be able to man RF. I figured given JBJ's long track record in CF, that CF would probably make the most sense for him, but I can see it your way. I just hope we don't have to find out. I'm hoping the Sox get enough of a bat who can play 2b to share with Arroyo so that Hernandez can be the primary CF and that Suzuki winds up in RF. Then we don't have to worry about where Verdugo fits best or how bad of a drag JBJ would be on the Sox offense. I'd much rather see JBJ as a true 4th OF who comes in on defense in the late innings to protect leads.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 4, 2022 15:24:48 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition. Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF. Read the article. That's essentially a placeholder for "post-lockout acquisition goes here-ish". He was trying to get a realistic projection everywhere else while allowing for the fact they're going to acquire another outfielder, rather than just stretching the current roster in a way that is entirely off.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2022 15:50:38 GMT -5
Dalbec is projected for 0.7 fWAR, same as last year, despite the fact that he had a 172 wRC+ in the last 51 games of the season. I suppose there are no projections that deal with young players figuring anything out.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2022 16:17:51 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition. Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF. Read the article. That's essentially a placeholder for "post-lockout acquisition goes here-ish". He was trying to get a realistic projection everywhere else while allowing for the fact they're going to acquire another outfielder, rather than just stretching the current roster in a way that is entirely off. To further elaborate - ZIPs projections are performed by Dan Szymborksi but the positions are determined by Fangraphs depth charts, from which Dan Szymborski is not involved.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 4, 2022 16:35:15 GMT -5
Dalbec is projected for 0.7 fWAR, same as last year, despite the fact that he had a 172 wRC+ in the last 51 games of the season. I suppose there are no projections that deal with young players figuring anything out. He also cooled off significantly the last 2 weeks of the season, so much so that they basically benched him in the playoffs, so let's not act like he's fixed quite yet. I think it's completely fair of it to look at his season, which was 4.5 months of awful and 1.5 months of amazing, and not being blown away. .228/.303/.459 feels defensible as a 50th percentile projection (which is what this is). The error bars just range from "is sent to AAA on May 1 and never comes up again" to "has, in fact, figured it out and makes an all-star team".
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 4, 2022 19:13:53 GMT -5
I struggle with complex metrics and projections,although in recent years I have embraced O.P.S. and W.H.I.P. as what really defines a players contributions. Considering the questions on this thread, I am fine with Verdugo as a RF and feel that expecting more than 50, maybe 60, innings fro Paxton is unreasonable. If Alex ends up with a career somewhere in the Trot Nixon, JD Drew range at the plate and in the field, it will be a huge win. This could happen. Likewise, 10 Paxton starts down the stretch would be perfect to manage and preserve post season innings for other starters. As a #6 this feels like a difference maker. I really don't care how many strikeouts Sale gets, or even need to see him pitch over 200 innings, I just want to see him go deeper in the games he does start, even if that means he starts less.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 5, 2022 8:37:31 GMT -5
Dalbec is projected for 0.7 fWAR, same as last year, despite the fact that he had a 172 wRC+ in the last 51 games of the season. I suppose there are no projections that deal with young players figuring anything out. He also cooled off significantly the last 2 weeks of the season, so much so that they basically benched him in the playoffs, so let's not act like he's fixed quite yet. I think it's completely fair of it to look at his season, which was 4.5 months of awful and 1.5 months of amazing, and not being blown away. .228/.303/.459 feels defensible as a 50th percentile projection (which is what this is). The error bars just range from "is sent to AAA on May 1 and never comes up again" to "has, in fact, figured it out and makes an all-star team". The eerie thing about Dalbec's offensive season is that we've seen this movie before, in even more extreme fashion, from JBJ. JBJ's legacy is a lot closer to definitive than Dalbec's is. The question is, how much does the organization commit to Dalbec in the next 1-2 years to find out if his path mirrors JBJ's or differs significantly, for better or worse? (Though it's hard to imagine how Dalbec's path could be much worse than JBJ's -- he'd be off the roster long before he got to JBJ's career status, because he doesn't, and never will, have the latter's defensive value.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 5, 2022 9:40:59 GMT -5
He also cooled off significantly the last 2 weeks of the season, so much so that they basically benched him in the playoffs, so let's not act like he's fixed quite yet. I think it's completely fair of it to look at his season, which was 4.5 months of awful and 1.5 months of amazing, and not being blown away. .228/.303/.459 feels defensible as a 50th percentile projection (which is what this is). The error bars just range from "is sent to AAA on May 1 and never comes up again" to "has, in fact, figured it out and makes an all-star team". The eerie thing about Dalbec's offensive season is that we've seen this movie before, in even more extreme fashion, from JBJ. JBJ's legacy is a lot closer to definitive than Dalbec's is. The question is, how much does the organization commit to Dalbec in the next 1-2 years to find out if his path mirrors JBJ's or differs significantly, for better or worse? (Though it's hard to imagine how Dalbec's path could be much worse than JBJ's -- he'd be off the roster long before he got to JBJ's career status, because he doesn't, and never will, have the latter's defensive value.) Well, yes and no. I see where you're going with that, but pretty important is that Bradley debuted at 23 (and, frankly, was rushed based on a strong spring training, with predictable results) while Dalbec debuted at 25. Last year was Dalbec's age 26 season - which was the season Bradley was an All-Star and had by far his best professional season. Bradley also debuted in a pretty toxic clubhouse in which zero support for young players was present, which was a not insignificant reason both Bradley and Betts struggled mightily upon their debuts, as well documented in Homegrown (you'll recall noted malcontent AJ Pierzynski getting just straight-up released in the middle of July 2014). Dalbec's path diverged from Bradley's, in a truly meaningful sense, in 2017 when he spent the whole season in Low-A when Bradley had spent his equivalent season split between High-A and Double-A.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 5, 2022 11:56:50 GMT -5
It's also hard to compare a mediocre defensive first baseman with someone who was arguably the best defensive center fielder in baseball. It made sense to be patient with Bradley because he was still a net positive when his bat was dead, whereas Dalbec spent the first four months of the season as the worst player in baseball.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 6, 2022 11:40:13 GMT -5
One thing I noticed is ZIPS has David Hamilton at .229/.283/.348 at the plate, which is about what you'd expect. And then it has him +7 defensively at shortstop to get him all the way to .9 WAR. Frankly I'm surprised that ZIPS is even capable of moving its priors all the way to "gold glove caliber shortstop" based on 100 minor league games. I wonder what's going on there.
edit: If everyone's computers are spitting out Victor Santos projections like that, he's a goner.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 7, 2022 0:00:01 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition. Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF. Read the article. That's essentially a placeholder for "post-lockout acquisition goes here-ish". He was trying to get a realistic projection everywhere else while allowing for the fact they're going to acquire another outfielder, rather than just stretching the current roster in a way that is entirely off. Setting aside the fact that this is a quibbly little detail and not the main point of my comment, I agree with this part of the article. I have made constant comments on this forum about wanting to sign Suzuki and my comment here also leaves open the possibility of a FA acquisition. I disregarded the author's hypothetical about Hernandez being on the LF depth chart in my comment because it was said to emphasize the fact that Duran and Stewart should never be starting the year in LF, not because the author sees it as a legitimate option. There's not a doubt in my mind that Hernandez should be in CF most of the time regardless of whether the Sox sign another corner OF. Playing a CF that good in LF at Fenway would be managerial malpractice. There are only two reasonable solutions: 1) FA Acquisition(s). 2) Verdugo-Hernandez-JBJ most of the time to start the year, and then see how it goes. Maybe Arroyo sucks and Hernandez needs to play 2B more. Maybe JBJ sucks and JDM needs to play LF more. Option 1 is clearly better. We'll see.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 7, 2022 9:39:59 GMT -5
Well, you did actually say that the author "insinuated" that Duran and Stewart would "fill the LF hole ... without a FA addition." I wasn't putting words in your mouth.
At any rate, I think you're overthinking the exercise. He says they're going to add an outfielder. Everyone agrees they're going to add an outfielder. It's not really a point in dispute.
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Post by jaffinator on Jan 7, 2022 15:39:28 GMT -5
Point 1) Getting angry about ZiPS being unfair to (insert favorite team) is and always has been pretty dumb - it's a fully statistical model. It may be too low on some players and too high on others, but the impression I've always gotten is that it tends to sort itself out in the aggregate (though I would always be interested in some sort of analysis of ZiPS predictions).
Point 2) It is so dumb when Fangraphs or whatever says something like "ZiPS was/is weirdly optimistic on..." Like you have the model and its predictions. From what I've read of ZiPS it functions largely based on similarity scoring, so they could literally check what seasons from which players are affecting the predictions. It's not a black box, it's not a mysterious oracle, so stop talking about it like it is. There shouldn't be anything fundamentally inexplicable there.
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