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Red Sox Sign SS Trevor Story
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 23, 2022 8:52:47 GMT -5
edit: What I had written here before was wrong
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 23, 2022 9:16:58 GMT -5
So, the $140M comes from the six year total and the buyout at that time. But he can opt after year four. If he does that and the Sox want to keep him the last three years kick in at $25M. If he doesn't opt out, he gets two more years at that. Interesting risk/reward terms for both player and team.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Mar 23, 2022 9:33:52 GMT -5
From Bradford Doolittle at ESPN Insider:
In terms of immediate impact, my system bumps up the Red Sox 3.5 wins in the first run of simulations that had Story on their depth chart, bringing them up to about 88 wins on average. That translates to roughly a 15 percent bump in postseason probability, up to 62 percent, and about a 5 percent boost to win the AL East, up from 6 percent. That large boost from Story is only in part about Boston's depth chart at second base before the signing. Just as important, his addition should mean a much less prominent offensive role for lesser bats, such as that of defense-first center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Enrique Hernandez now figures to play less in the infield and do the heavy lifting in center. Thus, Story helps Boston improve at two positions, and if Hernandez can play a plus center field, Story boosts the Sox at the plate and in the field. On paper, Boston still seems to be a half-tier behind the Blue Jays and Yankees in the division. And while they are now on par with the Rays, Tampa Bay tends to outperform my forecasts pretty much as a matter of routine. Still, this is a better starting point than from which the Red Sox began last season, when Boston was coming off a last-place finish, and that campaign nearly ended in a pennant. According to the figures at Cots' Contracts, Story's contract appears to push the Red Sox over the $230 million luxury tax line. It's close, and money can still be moved around. Less important than that is whether this will translate to less flexibility during the season if Boston is in contention and needs to upgrade a sore spot on the roster or to cover for an injury. Longer term, the addition of Story stabilizes Boston's outlook. We don't know the future of Boston's infield configuration. Story could move back to shortstop after Bogaerts leaves. Bogaerts could stay but move over to third base and bump Rafael Devers elsewhere. Maybe Bogaerts could be convinced to swap places with Story. Or all three players could remain fixtures where they are for years to come. The most important thing is that Boston has more high-level talent with which to work. Signing Story is not without risk. There are the strikeouts. There are the throwing concerns. And there is the always worrisome Coors Field effect. Those risks are what keeps me from giving the Red Sox an A or an A-, but it doesn't mean that I don't love the move. [...] Grade: B+
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Post by taiwansox on Mar 23, 2022 9:58:10 GMT -5
One additional comment on Coors road vs. home stats. Coors Field is of course a massive hitter’s park, but they’re also in the NL West where they play road games at Dodger Stadium, Petco, and AT&T (if that’s the current name for the Giants park). Those aren’t hitter friendly parks and that’s captured in Story’s OPS+ numbers. Non-normalized OPS numbers between Coors and road parks is super misleading/borderline useless
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 23, 2022 10:02:34 GMT -5
Another thing Story mentioned about about Coors, is that playing at altitude takes a physical toll on the body. So maybe more health & vitality playing in Boston?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 23, 2022 10:25:57 GMT -5
One additional comment on Coors road vs. home stats. Coors Field is of course a massive hitter’s park, but they’re also in the NL West where they play road games at Dodger Stadium, Petco, and AT&T (if that’s the current name for the Giants park). Those aren’t hitter friendly parks and that’s captured in Story’s OPS+ numbers. Non-normalized OPS numbers between Coors and road parks is super misleading/borderline useless Some detail here: tOPS+ @ SD = 64 @ SF = 58 @ LAD = 77 @ AZ = 126 Can’t hurt to make the switch to the AL East’s parks.
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zoot
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Post by zoot on Mar 23, 2022 10:28:00 GMT -5
“ Preparing For High Altitude Denver is situated at a high altitude of 5,280 feet (one mile high) above sea level. Visitors from lower elevations often underestimate the effects of altitude on their health and physical abilities. With high altitude living, the body gradually acclimates to the lower air pressure and decreased oxygen. Until acclimation occurs, high altitude living can give rise to a variety of unpleasant symptoms characteristic of altitude sickness. The symptoms of altitude sickness include nausea, lightheadedness, dizziness, headache, swelling in the feet, fatigue, sleep problems and breathing difficulties. To bypass these symptoms drink water to avoid dehydration and consume less alcohol and caffeine. Also, avoid heavy exercise initially to allow the body time to make the physiologic changes needed to function properly. High altitude living and vacationing puts additional stress on the body and should always be approached with caution” Altitude can be a bear, even for trained athletes. tinyurl.com/yckvvpf6
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 23, 2022 10:28:13 GMT -5
Seems as if everybody in baseball was working through the weekend. Starting late Friday night, the last few big dominoes in this year's free-agent market fell in a final sprint, with Nick Castellanos landing with the Phillies, Carlos Correa stunningly signing with the Twins and, finally, the last shortstop standing, Trevor Story agreeing to a deal with the Boston Red Sox. Story and his representatives ... the regular season looming on the horizon. Here's the first grade of this analysis: F-minus. That's not for the Red Sox, but for Story's old team, the Colorado Rockies. From the trading of Nolan Arenado last spring, to the failure to move Story at last season's trade deadline to the more recent and bizarre decision to give Kris Bryant a seven-year, $182 million deal (or $22 million more than the maximum value of Story's contract), the Rockies have bungled things every step of the way. It is really quite baffling. Now that we have that out of our system....... given a season of full health. With Story coming off the market, only Michael Conforto remains in the hunt for a team among Kiley McDaniel's original top 25 free agents from last winter. Story is also the last of the ballyhooed class of six star-level shortstops who received so much attention in the years leading up to this winter's free agency. Shortstop Contracts, 2021-22 PLAYER TEAM DATE SIGNED YEARS SALARY(AAV) Francisco Lindor Mets 3/31/2021 10 $341M ($34M) Corey Seager Rangers 12/1/21 10 $325M ($33M) Marcus Semien Rangers 12/1/21 5 $110M ($22M) Javier Baez Tigers 12/1/21 6 $140M ($23M) Carlos Correa Twins 3/19/22 3 $105M ($35M) Trevor Story Red Sox 3/20/22 6 $140M ($23M)All six did quite well, thank you. McDaniel projected a five-year, $115 million deal for Story before free agency began, so his patience over the past few months seems to have been well rewarded. For the Red Sox, the signing spices up what had been a very quiet offseason for a club that finished two games shy of the World Series in 2021. In terms of immediate impact.... After an offseason that felt like it would never end, Opening Day has never felt closer. Grade: B+ Lots of good prose and information here. Two observations from this corner of RSN (where we're finally going to be in the 70s today):
1. re: the Rockies, it seems pretty clear that they are following Mike Tomlin's "we want volunteers, not hostages" approach. Story had grown frustrated with losing in Colorado and was uncharacteristically vocal about it, whereas Bryant (whether just saying the right thing after scoring his big pay day or not) declared that he has always wanted to live in Denver (having grown up not far away, in Las Vegas). Maybe he likes to ski. Denver's a nice town, for sure, so maybe it's true. Either way, if the strategy works, it's great; if it doesn't, well at least your players won't grouse as much and they will still be embraced by the fans. They're really over a barrel playing in that ballpark/city, so it's understandable that they would consider this type of PR factor when shelling out that kind of contract -- and to be fair, they could've just pocketed that money. Also, according to MLBTR, it wasn't particularly an overpay, so I'd go closer to C-minus than F-minus.
2. Back to Story, with Chaim now wrapping up his third offseason, one thing that has emerged about his overall strategy is patience. He clearly puts a valuation on a player and will not get into a bidding war that leads to overpaying. He's willing to walk away when the stakes get too high. He's also not going to bid against himself (a surprisingly common occurrence when you consider how few FOs there are and how much money is at stake) and he's not afraid to pitch creative contracts to big-time agents. The Story story is a perfect illustration of that patience. So while it drives many less patient fans crazy in real time, it will definitely serve us in the end.
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Post by taiwansox on Mar 23, 2022 10:30:48 GMT -5
Seems as if everybody in baseball was working through the weekend. Starting late Friday night, the last few big dominoes in this year's free-agent market fell in a final sprint, with Nick Castellanos landing with the Phillies, Carlos Correa stunningly signing with the Twins and, finally, the last shortstop standing, Trevor Story agreeing to a deal with the Boston Red Sox. Story and his representatives ... the regular season looming on the horizon. Here's the first grade of this analysis: F-minus. That's not for the Red Sox, but for Story's old team, the Colorado Rockies. From the trading of Nolan Arenado last spring, to the failure to move Story at last season's trade deadline to the more recent and bizarre decision to give Kris Bryant a seven-year, $182 million deal (or $22 million more than the maximum value of Story's contract), the Rockies have bungled things every step of the way. It is really quite baffling. Now that we have that out of our system....... given a season of full health. With Story coming off the market, only Michael Conforto remains in the hunt for a team among Kiley McDaniel's original top 25 free agents from last winter. Story is also the last of the ballyhooed class of six star-level shortstops who received so much attention in the years leading up to this winter's free agency. Shortstop Contracts, 2021-22 PLAYER TEAM DATE SIGNED YEARS SALARY(AAV) Francisco Lindor Mets 3/31/2021 10 $341M ($34M) Corey Seager Rangers 12/1/21 10 $325M ($33M) Marcus Semien Rangers 12/1/21 5 $110M ($22M) Javier Baez Tigers 12/1/21 6 $140M ($23M) Carlos Correa Twins 3/19/22 3 $105M ($35M) Trevor Story Red Sox 3/20/22 6 $140M ($23M)All six did quite well, thank you. McDaniel projected a five-year, $115 million deal for Story before free agency began, so his patience over the past few months seems to have been well rewarded. For the Red Sox, the signing spices up what had been a very quiet offseason for a club that finished two games shy of the World Series in 2021. In terms of immediate impact.... After an offseason that felt like it would never end, Opening Day has never felt closer. Grade: B+ Lots of good prose and information here. Two observations from this corner of RSN (where we're finally going to be in the 70s today):
1. re: the Rockies, it seems pretty clear that they are following Mike Tomlin's "we want volunteers, not hostages" approach. Story had grown frustrated with losing in Colorado and was uncharacteristically vocal about it, whereas Bryant (whether just saying the right thing after scoring his big pay day or not) declared that he has always wanted to live in Denver (having grown up not far away, in Las Vegas). Maybe he likes to ski. Denver's a nice town, for sure, so maybe it's true. Either way, if the strategy works, it's great; if it doesn't, well at least your players won't grouse as much and they will still be embraced by the fans. They're really over a barrel playing in that ballpark/city, so it's understandable that they would consider this type of PR factor when shelling out that kind of contract -- and to be fair, they could've just pocketed that money. Also, according to MLBTR, it wasn't particularly an overpay, so I'd go closer to C-minus than F-minus.
2. Back to Story, with Chaim now wrapping up his third offseason, one thing that has emerged about his overall strategy is patience. He clearly puts a valuation on a player and will not get into a bidding war that leads to overpaying. He's willing to walk away when the stakes get too high. He's also not going to bid against himself (a surprisingly common occurrence when you consider how few FOs there are and how much money is at stake) and he's not afraid to pitch creative contracts to big-time agents. The Story story is a perfect illustration of that patience. So while it drives many less patient fans crazy in real time, it will definitely serve us in the end.
This front office doesn’t leak at all, which is boring for us fans lol
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 23, 2022 10:44:04 GMT -5
Please refrain from copying lengthy segments from proprietary sites. That's the policy on this one. Allowing that would eventually bring the pay-sites down on Mike and all of us. Thanks.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Mar 23, 2022 10:44:50 GMT -5
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora explained to reporters Wednesday why the team targeted, and ultimately signed, the All-Star infielder in free agency. Story joined Boston on a six-year contract, ending a pursuit that began four-plus months ago when the Red Sox set out to strengthen their squad for the 2022 season.
“We cast a really wide night all over the game, free agents, trade targets, but Trevor was someone this year really from the outset we had circled because of all the things I said: He’s incredibly talented, he can impact the game in every possible way,” Bloom said at a press conference. “It’s not just what shows up on the back of the baseball card. You look at how he runs the bases and some of the little things he does and those add value. They help you win games, and we know how narrow the margins are, especially in the American League East. … He does a lot of those things that help you win games that don’t show up in the box score.”
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 23, 2022 10:47:09 GMT -5
Seems as if everybody in baseball was working through the weekend. Starting late Friday night, the last few big dominoes in this year's free-agent market fell in a final sprint, with Nick Castellanos landing with the Phillies, Carlos Correa stunningly signing with the Twins and, finally, the last shortstop standing, Trevor Story agreeing to a deal with the Boston Red Sox. Story and his representatives ... the regular season looming on the horizon. Here's the first grade of this analysis: F-minus. That's not for the Red Sox, but for Story's old team, the Colorado Rockies. From the trading of Nolan Arenado last spring, to the failure to move Story at last season's trade deadline to the more recent and bizarre decision to give Kris Bryant a seven-year, $182 million deal (or $22 million more than the maximum value of Story's contract), the Rockies have bungled things every step of the way. It is really quite baffling. Now that we have that out of our system....... given a season of full health. With Story coming off the market, only Michael Conforto remains in the hunt for a team among Kiley McDaniel's original top 25 free agents from last winter. Story is also the last of the ballyhooed class of six star-level shortstops who received so much attention in the years leading up to this winter's free agency. Shortstop Contracts, 2021-22 PLAYER TEAM DATE SIGNED YEARS SALARY(AAV) Francisco Lindor Mets 3/31/2021 10 $341M ($34M) Corey Seager Rangers 12/1/21 10 $325M ($33M) Marcus Semien Rangers 12/1/21 5 $110M ($22M) Javier Baez Tigers 12/1/21 6 $140M ($23M) Carlos Correa Twins 3/19/22 3 $105M ($35M) Trevor Story Red Sox 3/20/22 6 $140M ($23M)All six did quite well, thank you. McDaniel projected a five-year, $115 million deal for Story before free agency began, so his patience over the past few months seems to have been well rewarded. For the Red Sox, the signing spices up what had been a very quiet offseason for a club that finished two games shy of the World Series in 2021. In terms of immediate impact.... After an offseason that felt like it would never end, Opening Day has never felt closer. Grade: B+ Lots of good prose and information here. Two observations from this corner of RSN (where we're finally going to be in the 70s today): 1. re: the Rockies, it seems pretty clear that they are following Mike Tomlin's "we want volunteers, not hostages" approach. Story had grown frustrated with losing in Colorado and was uncharacteristically vocal about it, whereas Bryant (whether just saying the right thing after scoring his big pay day or not) declared that he has always wanted to live in Denver (having grown up not far away, in Las Vegas). Maybe he likes to ski. Denver's a nice town, for sure, so maybe it's true. Either way, if the strategy works, it's great; if it doesn't, well at least your players won't grouse as much and they will still be embraced by the fans. They're really over a barrel playing in that ballpark/city, so it's understandable that they would consider this type of PR factor when shelling out that kind of contract -- and to be fair, they could've just pocketed that money. Also, according to MLBTR, it wasn't particularly an overpay, so I'd go closer to C-minus than F-minus.
2. Back to Story, with Chaim now wrapping up his third offseason, one thing that has emerged about his overall strategy is patience. He clearly puts a valuation on a player and will not get into a bidding war that leads to overpaying. He's willing to walk away when the stakes get too high. He's also not going to bid against himself (a surprisingly common occurrence when you consider how few FOs there are and how much money is at stake) and he's not afraid to pitch creative contracts to big-time agents. The Story story is a perfect illustration of that patience. So while it drives many less patient fans crazy in real time, it will definitely serve us in the end.
Heyman reported that the Rockies were willing to pay Story more, but he wanted to win. It was only when Story turned them down that they extended Chapman, which may have been unrelated but I find that unlikely. But anyway, Story was a free agent, so they had no way to make him a "hostage" in the Tomlin saying. The question is whether they should've traded him or whether the return wouldn't have been as good as a pick after the first round (they receive revenue sharing). Given that the Cubs got Caleb Killian and Alexander Canario for Bryant, I'm inclined to think it would've been.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 23, 2022 10:53:48 GMT -5
So, please be gentle and correct me if I'm wrong here.
But this seems extremely team-friendly. If Story is so good he'd opt out he ends up just giving more years to the Sox, so if he doesn't opt out they don't have to pay him into his later 30s and they still get him for 6 years in his prime. Which, if he is producing well and figures he can't hit FA again until he's 35 why wouldn't he just exercise the opt-out so he can at least have another guaranteed 25 mil? IDK....I'm a little confused but something tells me I really really like it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 23, 2022 10:56:25 GMT -5
So we're clear, OPS+ adjusts for ballparks. In the words of one well known philosopher, "it is what it is".
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 23, 2022 11:01:15 GMT -5
So we're clear, OPS+ adjusts for ballparks. In the words of one well known philosopher, "it is what it is". However, overlaying the hit chart on Fenway's dimensions does not adjust for altitude or the height of the wall.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 23, 2022 11:10:45 GMT -5
So, please be gentle and correct me if I'm wrong here. But this seems extremely team-friendly. If Story is so good he'd opt out he ends up just giving more years to the Sox, so if he doesn't opt out they don't have to pay him into his later 30s and they still get him for 6 years in his prime. Which, if he is producing well and figures he can't hit FA again until he's 35 why wouldn't he just exercise the opt-out so he can at least have another guaranteed 25 mil? IDK....I'm a little confused but something tells me I really really like it. My guess is the Red Sox really wanted a normal team option (which they try to get on every contract), and Story was resistant, and this deal where Story can force them to guarantee it a few years early is the compromise they reached.
I'd put the odds under 50% that Story opts out of 2/55 with a 20 million team option after his age 32 season.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 23, 2022 11:15:16 GMT -5
So, please be gentle and correct me if I'm wrong here. But this seems extremely team-friendly. If Story is so good he'd opt out he ends up just giving more years to the Sox, so if he doesn't opt out they don't have to pay him into his later 30s and they still get him for 6 years in his prime. Which, if he is producing well and figures he can't hit FA again until he's 35 why wouldn't he just exercise the opt-out so he can at least have another guaranteed 25 mil? IDK....I'm a little confused but something tells me I really really like it. My guess is the Red Sox really wanted a normal team option (which they try to get on every contract), and Story was resistant, and this deal where Story can force them to guarantee it a few years early is the compromise they reached.
I'd put the odds under 50% that Story opts out of 2/55 with a 20 million team option after his age 32 season.
What's strange is that if he's opting out, then I'm assuming he's good enough to believe he's going to get more money. If the Sox don't exercise their end of the option then that means they don't want to pay a ton of money that he has earned, which means he probably insanely outperformed the 4/85 and the Sox are looking to move on (Mayer?). In that case it really feels like the Sox come out on top. People often bill the player opt out as extremly player friendly, and it's, but they often don't consider that the team ultimately pays for a players prime years and gets outbid for years outside his prime. This seems little bit more team friendly than the typical opt-out. Because if he's performing well it gives the Sox the option to retain him at below FMV.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 23, 2022 11:16:42 GMT -5
My guess is the Red Sox really wanted a normal team option (which they try to get on every contract), and Story was resistant, and this deal where Story can force them to guarantee it a few years early is the compromise they reached.
I'd put the odds under 50% that Story opts out of 2/55 with a 20 million team option after his age 32 season.
What's strange is that if he's opting out, then I'm assuming he's good enough to believe he's going to get more money. If the Sox don't exercise their end of the option then that means they don't want to pay a ton of money that he has earned, which means he probably insanely outperformed the 4/85 and the Sox are looking to move on (Mayer?). In that case it really feels like the Sox come out on top. People often bill the player opt out as extremly player friendly, and it's, but they often don't consider that the team ultimately pays for a players prime years and gets outbid for years outside his prime. This seems little bit more team friendly than the typical opt-out. Because if he's performing well it gives the Sox the option to retain him at below FMV. Quoting myself here. Is 25 mil per year really a ton of money anymore? If he's opting out of that because he's worth more than that then the Sox are just going to exercise their option on him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 23, 2022 11:26:52 GMT -5
Red Sox have slam dunk retain: Story opts out Red Sox have slam dunk decline: Story does not opt out Not obvious what Red Sox would do: Story probably does not opt out unless he hates the manager or something
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 23, 2022 11:32:40 GMT -5
Red Sox have slam dunk retain: Story opts out Red Sox have slam dunk decline: Story does not opt out Not obvious what Red Sox would do: Story probably does not opt out unless he hates the manager or something If Story is opting out because he's worth more money, why are the Sox not exercising their option on him? It seems to be the only scenario where that seems plausible is where there is bad blood and both sides want to move one which A.) seems less likely when a guy is performing and B.) don't the Sox have the incentive to just exercise that option and then trade him?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 23, 2022 11:32:48 GMT -5
I did a quick cuff calculation. We will probably be dealing with inflation for a while given both the oil markets and crippled supply chains. With that in mind, 5% inflation over the next two years (we can hope we don't go there) leaves the value just about the same in real dollars - about $20M. If that persists then that value carries forward through the next two-year cycle. I think it's quite team-friendly, but he can opt out in year four and so he has some leverage. For the Sox, it gives them the time to see what they have in both Mayer and Yorke before deciding on the rest of his contract. I think it brings value to both sides, letting each hedge the risk and potentially rewarding both in the longer term.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 23, 2022 11:37:32 GMT -5
Ok, sorry to spam, I feel like I'm spamming.....I'm just really really excited about this contract. There's isn't ANY no-trade protection in the deal. So if Story performs well enough to opt out he effectively doesn't have an opt out. Because the Sox can just exercise their option and even keep him well below market value or trade him for prospects in Mayer is ready. Now I know why Bloom was so excited a week ago.
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zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50
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Post by zoot on Mar 23, 2022 11:56:14 GMT -5
I’ve wondered why management (not just the RS) hasn’t done something like this in the past. The established player opt outs run 100% in the player’s favor and inject a net of instability in future planning. This contract says that the RS can keep him around at a somewhat premium cost if for instance, the wheels come off Mayer and there’s a gaping hole in succession planning. Combined with the absence of a no-trade clause, it gives the club a great deal more flexibility (Chaim’s favorite word), balancing that with an incremental cost that’s fair to Story.
If I was Story’s agent, I guess I’d say ‘that 7th year is going to cost you a bit more than that’. So, that figure surprised me, but not the deal structure as such. It is as noted creative, a classic balancing of interests.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 23, 2022 14:52:13 GMT -5
The only way he opts out after year 4 and leaves is if he thinks he's worth more than 3/75 at that time and the Red Sox think he is not. That situation, while possible, seems unlikely.
Much more likely that either he's definitely not worth it and he doesn't opt out or he clearly is and does and the team exercises its option to extend by one year.
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Post by benzinger on Mar 23, 2022 15:41:25 GMT -5
I’ve wondered why management (not just the RS) hasn’t done something like this in the past. The established player opt outs run 100% in the player’s favor and inject a net of instability in future planning. This contract says that the RS can keep him around at a somewhat premium cost if for instance, the wheels come off Mayer and there’s a gaping hole in succession planning. Combined with the absence of a no-trade clause, it gives the club a great deal more flexibility (Chaim’s favorite word), balancing that with an incremental cost that’s fair to Story. If I was Story’s agent, I guess I’d say ‘that 7th year is going to cost you a bit more than that’. So, that figure surprised me, but not the deal structure as such. It is as noted creative, a classic balancing of interests. I would LOVE to see this as more of a 2-way street, as well. When Kris Bryant signs for 8 years or Mookie signs for 12 years, it would be amazing if the TEAM had an opt-out after 5 or 6 years. The owners should have held out for that kind of flexibility.
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