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4/11-4/13 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Apr 12, 2022 15:45:25 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ in 562 major league PAs. Casas has played 14 games at AAA. I wonder - sincerely, not in a leading way - how many analysts within the game would bet on Dalbec over Casas right now? Casas surely has the higher ceiling, but Dalbec's ceiling is still pretty high, and he's established a floor of adequacy at the major league level.
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Post by dirtdog on Apr 12, 2022 15:53:10 GMT -5
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Post by dirtdog on Apr 12, 2022 15:57:30 GMT -5
Nice to see Raffy raking early in the season, normally a slow starter. Also nice to see Whitlock will be a fixture for a few years.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 12, 2022 16:20:35 GMT -5
Can't wait for the Casas era to begin. Send Dalbec out. Nope! He does damage and will hit 25-30 hrs. with a .250 or higher average. He had probably our 2 hardest hit balls today. He looks a lot better than the first half of last year. I don't think that Casas is as good a hitter presently... excepting strike zone judgment. Same ol'JBJ....grounders to the right side....not feeling good here. He has a reputation.for streakiness but when was the last good streak? I'm feeling that ship has sailed.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 12, 2022 16:30:25 GMT -5
I dont see first base presently being an issue. So far this season it's been RF and 2nd base. Story is the answer to 2nd. Hopefully JBJ and Arroyo can be close enough to league average to not be a giant hole in the lineup. If they are a hole then maybe give Duran another shot otherwise they'll need to find someone from out of the organization to step in.
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Post by benzinger on Apr 12, 2022 16:36:13 GMT -5
I know its early, but I sure wish they had gotten a right-handed hitting right fielder in the off season. Like the guy the Cubs signed, for example. I liked the idea of Andrew McCutchen as a cheaper 1-year contract. He would have helped.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 12, 2022 16:38:41 GMT -5
This lineup is greatly missing Story. But how many AB’s has he even had this Spring? He signed late, then his wife had a baby, and now he’s sick. He basically needs to have his whole Spring Training once he gets back. Edit: he had 11AB’s in FLA and 8AB’s in the regular season, so far. Yeah I’m not concerning myself with his results until June at this point
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Post by manfred on Apr 12, 2022 17:11:48 GMT -5
Binelas appears to be the only truly promising get in the combined Benny/Renfroe deal. I think it is fair to be critical of a series of moves that have demonstrably weakened the team — there is *no* arguing our OF is better — while creating long odds on future improvement. A few of those additions are already working their way down the prospect rankings. Will there likely come a day when we say “it was worth fielding a bad OF to have Grant Gambrell on this squad”? I take it you're not high on our 12th-ranked prospect? The potential bulk reliever? I am not high enough on him that sacrificing today for a Brazier in two years feels good.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 12, 2022 17:38:21 GMT -5
I dont see first base presently being an issue. So far this season it's been RF and 2nd base. Story is the answer to 2nd. Hopefully JBJ and Arroyo can be close enough to league average to not be a giant hole in the lineup. If they are a hole then maybe give Duran another shot otherwise they'll need to find someone from out of the organization to step in. They want Duran to get regular ABs which makes sense if he’s our plan to start in the OF next season. I personally love Arroyo and am happy to see him getting playing time. I think he’s a solid player and he can learn RF then we sacrifice a little offense when JBJ is in for defense. That’s not a horrible thing if 6-8 in the lineup is hitting. When there not then it’s bad but it’s the beginning of the season and we can’t start stressing yet. The good thing is we have Duran waiting and we have prospects to deal for an OF at the deadline if we need to.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2022 17:50:48 GMT -5
Not that I want to open up the debate again, but it is just kind of amazing that, in a series of moves, Bloom essentially turned Benintendi into Franchy Cordero, Josh Winckowsi, Freddy Valdez, Grant Gambrell, Luis de la Rosa, Alex Binelas, David Hamilton, and Jackie Bradley Jr., .
I'm not even saying it's good or bad. It's just... kind of amazing. The one red paperclip guy's got nothing on him. Well, that whole group is a net negative WAR. When it breaks zero, I will be ready to share your glee. “…share your glee.” Manfred…..glee….. ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ?
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Post by incandenza on Apr 12, 2022 17:52:47 GMT -5
I take it you're not high on our 12th-ranked prospect? The potential bulk reliever? I am not high enough on him that sacrificing today for a Brazier in two years feels good. You mis-spelled "Potential bulk relief type. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. Could be very effective in a bulk role where his lack of strikeout potential with his fastball would not be as much of an issue." That makes you think... Brasier?
I think scottysmalls said it best back on page 6 of this thread: if you look at a guy with a small chance of being a successful major leaguer and round that value down to zero, then even seven of those guys lined up still amount to having no value in your estimation.
But here's some quick math: if you take 7 guys and assign each of them a 10% chance of success, the chance that at least one of them succeeds is 57%.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 12, 2022 18:16:04 GMT -5
You might as well be describing Dalbec. How about we're patient with both of them? What is it, one week into the season? i I will admit to being among those who are quick to judge based on SSS. But, one week is a little too early to write anybody off or to scream for somebody to be pushed forward. That said, here are some too quick thots I have. Do not pull the trigger on any of these, but maybe soon if the trends continue. —Lose Shaw. His LH bat no longer contributes. I would rather have Refsnyder or Fitzy than Shaw regardless of the L/R imbalance. —Casas is sort of struggling. But he hit another HR today and has driven in five runs so far. When Casas arrives midseason, he corrects the L/R imbalance. Agree 100% that patience is called for here. —Dalbec is Dalbec. He is more than adequate until someone better comes along. At that point, I might trade him and JBJ for one very high quality RF. —JBJ either needs to got hot or to sit down for Arroyo. Or get traded (see above). I continue to have a hard time seeing any upside in the Renfroe trade and hope that it somehow proves me wrong. —Arauz. It would have been my preference to keep Y. Sanchez on the roster instead of Arauz. It still is. —Ryan Fitz is raking. He deserves a chance based on his 2022 SSS. —It is hard to fault the current use of Whitlock. But I cannot help thinking that he would be a more productive starter than any of Hill, Houck and Wacha. —The bullpen has been great. Why do I not believe it will continue to be?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 12, 2022 18:24:55 GMT -5
You might as well be describing Dalbec. How about we're patient with both of them? What is it, one week into the season? i I will admit to being among those who are quick to judge based on SSS. But, one week is a little too early to write anybody off or to scream for somebody to be pushed forward. That said, here are some too quick thots I have. Do not pull the trigger on any of these, but maybe soon if the trends continue. —Lose Shaw. His LH bat no longer contributes. I would rather have Refsnyder or Fitzy than Shaw regardless of the L/R imbalance. —Casas is sort of struggling. But he hit another HR today and has driven in five runs so far. When Casas arrives midseason, he corrects the L/R imbalance. Agree 100% that patience is called for here. —Dalbec is Dalbec. He is more than adequate until someone better comes along. At that point, I might trade him and JBJ for one very high quality RF. —JBJ either needs to got hot or to sit down for Arroyo. Or get traded (see above). I continue to have a hard time seeing any upside in the Renfroe trade and hope that it somehow proves me wrong. —Arauz. It would have been my preference to keep Y. Sanchez on the roster instead of Arauz. It still is. —Ryan Fitz is raking. He deserves a chance based on his 2022 SSS. —It is hard to fault the current use of Whitlock. But I cannot help thinking that he would be a more productive starter than any of Hill, Houck and Wacha. —The bullpen has been great. Why do I not believe it will continue to be? To poke one hole in your comment and admittedly its a SSS but the upside of the renfroe deal is being shown by Hamilton and binelas. They are good lotto tickets and if one of them even becomes a serviceable major league bench piece then the renfroe deal will have paid off, at least IMO.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 12, 2022 19:00:25 GMT -5
Casas is getting BABIP'd right now. Give him Downs' BABIP and his stat line will look fine.
Or take away Downs 0.364 BABIP and his stat line could actually be worse...
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Post by manfred on Apr 12, 2022 19:15:57 GMT -5
The potential bulk reliever? I am not high enough on him that sacrificing today for a Brazier in two years feels good. You mis-spelled "Potential bulk relief type. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. Could be very effective in a bulk role where his lack of strikeout potential with his fastball would not be as much of an issue." That makes you think... Brasier?
I think scottysmalls said it best back on page 6 of this thread: if you look at a guy with a small chance of being a successful major leaguer and round that value down to zero, then even seven of those guys lined up still amount to having no value in your estimation.
But here's some quick math: if you take 7 guys and assign each of them a 10% chance of success, the chance that at least one of them succeeds is 57%.
So 57% of success… is that utility man? Bulk reliever? Because, again, that doesn’t make up for punting on RF for a year. It is hardly tanking for an elite pick.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 12, 2022 19:17:22 GMT -5
You might as well be describing Dalbec. How about we're patient with both of them? What is it, one week into the season? And Dalbec went into this game with a .398 wOBA and .390 xwOBA, both 3rd on the team to Verdugo and Devers. The team as a whole was .248, .310, and some of that had to be tougher-than-average Yankee pitching.
Xander came in .317, .262.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 12, 2022 20:07:12 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ in 562 major league PAs. Casas has played 14 games at AAA. I wonder - sincerely, not in a leading way - how many analysts within the game would bet on Dalbec over Casas right now? Casas surely has the higher ceiling, but Dalbec's ceiling is still pretty high, and he's established a floor of adequacy at the major league level. Dalbec’s sprint speed is actually good. I would really be interested to see him try to make it in the outfield. 1B is the most crowded position in the system right now. Would be nice to know we can move Dalbec off of 1B without losing him.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 12, 2022 21:07:44 GMT -5
You mis-spelled "Potential bulk relief type. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. Could be very effective in a bulk role where his lack of strikeout potential with his fastball would not be as much of an issue." That makes you think... Brasier?
I think scottysmalls said it best back on page 6 of this thread: if you look at a guy with a small chance of being a successful major leaguer and round that value down to zero, then even seven of those guys lined up still amount to having no value in your estimation.
But here's some quick math: if you take 7 guys and assign each of them a 10% chance of success, the chance that at least one of them succeeds is 57%.
So 57% of success… is that utility man? Bulk reliever? Because, again, that doesn’t make up for punting on RF for a year. It is hardly tanking for an elite pick. In my opinion you are underselling the prospects that came back and overselling the likely gap between Renfroe and Bradley/Arroyo in 2022. There's also going to be ample opportunity to add in May when rosters shrink, or at the deadline, or even from AAA (Duran, Fitzy, Franchy, etc) if the RF tandem isn't performing well. This trade does not equate to punting on RF for 2022.
It's also frustrating to see a few people in this thread already giving up on JBJ. He's had exactly three starts against above average pitching and for what it's worth the guy we traded for him is only 2 for 17 to start the year. Maybe Jackie will hit grounders to second base until he gets DFA'd, but the time to come to a conclusion on him is not after like 10 PA.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 12, 2022 21:20:53 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ in 562 major league PAs. Casas has played 14 games at AAA. I wonder - sincerely, not in a leading way - how many analysts within the game would bet on Dalbec over Casas right now? Casas surely has the higher ceiling, but Dalbec's ceiling is still pretty high, and he's established a floor of adequacy at the major league level. Dalbec’s sprint speed is actually good. I would really be interested to see him try to make it in the outfield. 1B is the most crowded position in the system right now. Would be nice to know we can move Dalbec off of 1B without losing him. It is easy to see why the Sox would not try Dalbec in the OF this year. He is the 1B of choice at the start of the season. Casas, regardless of his seeming enormous potential, is still a gleam in our collective eyes. But the idea that Bobby could become a valuable OF asset is not all that far fetched. He has pretty good speed and a strong arm. Assuming that he is not the 1B of the future, then OF or 3B look like his chances to stay with the Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 12, 2022 21:47:30 GMT -5
You might as well be describing Dalbec. How about we're patient with both of them? What is it, one week into the season? Dalbec just hit the game winning HR the last Yankee game and everyone already forgot.
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Post by benzinger on Apr 12, 2022 22:05:02 GMT -5
So 57% of success… is that utility man? Bulk reliever? Because, again, that doesn’t make up for punting on RF for a year. It is hardly tanking for an elite pick. In my opinion you are underselling the prospects that came back and overselling the likely gap between Renfroe and Bradley/Arroyo in 2022. There's also going to be ample opportunity to add in May when rosters shrink, or at the deadline, or even from AAA (Duran, Fitzy, Franchy, etc) if the RF tandem isn't performing well. This trade does not equate to punting on RF for 2022.
It's also frustrating to see a few people in this thread already giving up on JBJ. He's had exactly three starts against above average pitching and for what it's worth the guy we traded for him is only 2 for 17 to start the year. Maybe Jackie will hit grounders to second base until he gets DFA'd, but the time to come to a conclusion on him is not after like 10 PA.
It’s not that JBJ is 0-10 to start the season, though. It’s that he was already the worst player in all of MLB LAST season.
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 12, 2022 22:34:17 GMT -5
In my opinion you are underselling the prospects that came back and overselling the likely gap between Renfroe and Bradley/Arroyo in 2022. There's also going to be ample opportunity to add in May when rosters shrink, or at the deadline, or even from AAA (Duran, Fitzy, Franchy, etc) if the RF tandem isn't performing well. This trade does not equate to punting on RF for 2022.
It's also frustrating to see a few people in this thread already giving up on JBJ. He's had exactly three starts against above average pitching and for what it's worth the guy we traded for him is only 2 for 17 to start the year. Maybe Jackie will hit grounders to second base until he gets DFA'd, but the time to come to a conclusion on him is not after like 10 PA.
It’s not that JBJ is 0-10 to start the season, though. It’s that he was already the worst player in all of MLB LAST season. I’d wait until Memorial Day with JBJ. His ABs don’t look that bad. If he looks hopeless against the Orioles staff, then we should be alarmed lol
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 12, 2022 22:37:37 GMT -5
You might as well be describing Dalbec. How about we're patient with both of them? What is it, one week into the season? Dalbec just hit the game winning HR the last Yankee game and everyone already forgot. Dude has an .885 OPS and .398 wOBA lol. That’s with bad BABIP luck today, idk why he gets all this hate
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 12, 2022 22:47:02 GMT -5
If we took a look at posts, the SSS of these posts wouldn't look good either.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2022 23:22:35 GMT -5
If we took a look at posts, the SSS of these posts wouldn't look good either. Except a few people posting here are negative 98 percent of the time and it gets tiring…., but you said sss and their’s are over a much larger quantity….
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