SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/11-4/13 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
|
Post by benzinger on Apr 12, 2022 23:41:04 GMT -5
It’s not that JBJ is 0-10 to start the season, though. It’s that he was already the worst player in all of MLB LAST season. I’d wait until Memorial Day with JBJ. His ABs don’t look that bad. If he looks hopeless against the Orioles staff, then we should be alarmed lol I’ll stick with you on this and hope for the best. I’m already alarmed that JBJ has only had 1 season since 2016 that was above replacement level, and that was the short COVID season of 2020.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,665
|
Post by cdj on Apr 12, 2022 23:58:40 GMT -5
I’d wait until Memorial Day with JBJ. His ABs don’t look that bad. If he looks hopeless against the Orioles staff, then we should be alarmed lol I’ll stick with you on this and hope for the best. I’m already alarmed that JBJ has only had 1 season since 2016 that was above replacement level, and that was the short COVID season of 2020. I mean that’s true if you completely ignore the strongest part of his game. I can assure you Jackie has not been “below replacement level” every year but one since 2016.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 13, 2022 3:25:01 GMT -5
I’ll stick with you on this and hope for the best. I’m already alarmed that JBJ has only had 1 season since 2016 that was above replacement level, and that was the short COVID season of 2020. I mean that’s true if you completely ignore the strongest part of his game. I can assure you Jackie has not been “below replacement level” every year but one since 2016. In fact, as I believe I mentioned already, in his last three Red Sox seasons he averaged 3.3 WAR per 650 PA.
I've already explained why there's reason to believe that his last season isn't predictive at all (new coaches who are clueless about fixing him when he's slumping).
In the 790 PA that I believe are predictive (2019, 2020, 2022 so far) he has a 97 wRC+, with .321 wOBA and .315 xwOBA.
If I'm not mistaken, 2018 is more recent than 2016, and he finished that year with 50 postseason PA where he put up a .363 wOBA and .379 xwOBA, against superior pitching.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2022 7:18:03 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ in 562 major league PAs. Casas has played 14 games at AAA. I wonder - sincerely, not in a leading way - how many analysts within the game would bet on Dalbec over Casas right now? Casas surely has the higher ceiling, but Dalbec's ceiling is still pretty high, and he's established a floor of adequacy at the major league level. AND he can play third.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2022 7:28:47 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ in 562 major league PAs. Casas has played 14 games at AAA. I wonder - sincerely, not in a leading way - how many analysts within the game would bet on Dalbec over Casas right now? Casas surely has the higher ceiling, but Dalbec's ceiling is still pretty high, and he's established a floor of adequacy at the major league level. OK, I know this is heresy on this board but...Casas is this team's most valuable trade chip. Whether it's in a package for controllable #2ish MLB pitcher (Sandy Alcantara, etc.) or near MLB ready prospects at positions of need (Catcher/OF/Starter i.e. Franciscó Alvarez, etc). While he looks to be a long-time basher, first base is not a high-value position and this team will have significant needs after this year. Casas is probably at his zenith in perceived value right now. OK, heresy done. But I'm sure you get my point.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2022 7:43:45 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ in 562 major league PAs. Casas has played 14 games at AAA. I wonder - sincerely, not in a leading way - how many analysts within the game would bet on Dalbec over Casas right now? Casas surely has the higher ceiling, but Dalbec's ceiling is still pretty high, and he's established a floor of adequacy at the major league level. OK, I know this is heresy on this board but...Casas is this team's most valuable trade chip. Whether it's in a package for controllable #2ish MLB pitcher (Sandy Alcantara, etc.) or near MLB ready prospects at positions of need (Catcher/OF/Starter i.e. Franciscó Alvarez, etc). While he looks to be a long-time basher, first base is not a high-value position and this team will have significant needs after this year. Casas is probably at his zenith in perceived value right now. OK, heresy done. But I'm sure you get my point. Don't worry. Bloom will be in on Francisco Alvarez. He has Raffy Devers to dangle in a trade. Won't need to use Casas and Dalbec can play 3b. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Apr 13, 2022 7:52:54 GMT -5
In my opinion you are underselling the prospects that came back and overselling the likely gap between Renfroe and Bradley/Arroyo in 2022. There's also going to be ample opportunity to add in May when rosters shrink, or at the deadline, or even from AAA (Duran, Fitzy, Franchy, etc) if the RF tandem isn't performing well. This trade does not equate to punting on RF for 2022.
It's also frustrating to see a few people in this thread already giving up on JBJ. He's had exactly three starts against above average pitching and for what it's worth the guy we traded for him is only 2 for 17 to start the year. Maybe Jackie will hit grounders to second base until he gets DFA'd, but the time to come to a conclusion on him is not after like 10 PA.
It’s not that JBJ is 0-10 to start the season, though. It’s that he was already the worst player in all of MLB LAST season. And he was as good or better than Renfroe for most of the rest of his career. Why should we ignore his good production from 2015-2020 and sentence him based on a bad 2021? Usually production doesn't fall off a cliff like that without some sort of health or environmental issue (e.g. wrist injuries, BOS sign stealing and MIL not - just as an example). As far as I know JBJ is healthy this year and he's in an environment that he's proven he can succeed in. He's also a notoriously streaky hitter and had prolonged dry spells resembling 2021 even during his good seasons. It's only reasonable to see how he does in 2022 before assuming he's washed.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 9:04:52 GMT -5
Obviously it is only five games, so it is not panic time or anything. And I love JBJ. He’s one of my all-time favorites. But… going into the season, very few people were happy with the OF as it is, and in this very tiny sample, it has been bad. Maybe that will eventually be meaningless. But through five games, the people who said OF was a problem have been correct.
People can continue to post projections, etc, and we can all hope those are correct. But the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Right now, the Sox are last in the AL for OPS in CF and RF, and 7th in LF.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Apr 13, 2022 9:13:58 GMT -5
I mean that’s true if you completely ignore the strongest part of his game. I can assure you Jackie has not been “below replacement level” every year but one since 2016. In fact, as I believe I mentioned already, in his last three Red Sox seasons he averaged 3.3 WAR per 650 PA.
I've already explained why there's reason to believe that his last season isn't predictive at all (new coaches who are clueless about fixing him when he's slumping).
In the 790 PA that I believe are predictive (2019, 2020, 2022 so far) he has a 97 wRC+, with .321 wOBA and .315 xwOBA.
If I'm not mistaken, 2018 is more recent than 2016, and he finished that year with 50 postseason PA where he put up a .363 wOBA and .379 xwOBA, against superior pitching.
The obvious problem here is that none of us want to watch him get the 650PA’s in order to achieve that 3.3WAR. In fact, if he IS getting that many AB’s, something is seriously wrong. No argument on his 2018 postseason BTW. He was huge during that run.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2022 9:14:18 GMT -5
Obviously it is only five games, so it is not panic time or anything. And I love JBJ. He’s one of my all-time favorites. But… going into the season, very few people were happy with the OF as it is, and in this very tiny sample, it has been bad. Maybe that will eventually be meaningless. But through five games, the people who said OF was a problem have been correct. People can continue to post projections, etc, and we can all hope those are correct. But the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Right now, the Sox are last in the AL for OPS in CF and RF, and 7th in LF. Seems like you're proving too much there. No one thought CF would be a weak spot, so... maybe this 5-game sample doesn't actually mean anything after all?
I have my own criticisms of the RF situation, stated above, but I feel like there ought to be a law against citing stats as evidence of anything until at least the end of April.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 13, 2022 9:59:14 GMT -5
You mis-spelled "Potential bulk relief type. Ceiling of a back-end starting pitcher. Could be very effective in a bulk role where his lack of strikeout potential with his fastball would not be as much of an issue." That makes you think... Brasier?
I think scottysmalls said it best back on page 6 of this thread: if you look at a guy with a small chance of being a successful major leaguer and round that value down to zero, then even seven of those guys lined up still amount to having no value in your estimation.
But here's some quick math: if you take 7 guys and assign each of them a 10% chance of success, the chance that at least one of them succeeds is 57%.
So 57% of success… is that utility man? Bulk reliever? Because, again, that doesn’t make up for punting on RF for a year. It is hardly tanking for an elite pick. Trading Renfroe for JBJ is not punting on RF for a year. As numerous posters have demonstrated there is plenty of reason to believe that JBJ might be better than Renfroe this season. Bloom could very well fall into that camp. You're arguing against doing something that he did not do. If you just think he should have acquired another RF whether or not we have Renfroe, that I could see the case for.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 9:59:59 GMT -5
Obviously it is only five games, so it is not panic time or anything. And I love JBJ. He’s one of my all-time favorites. But… going into the season, very few people were happy with the OF as it is, and in this very tiny sample, it has been bad. Maybe that will eventually be meaningless. But through five games, the people who said OF was a problem have been correct. People can continue to post projections, etc, and we can all hope those are correct. But the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. Right now, the Sox are last in the AL for OPS in CF and RF, and 7th in LF. Seems like you're proving too much there. No one thought CF would be a weak spot, so... maybe this 5-game sample doesn't actually mean anything after all?
I have my own criticisms of the RF situation, stated above, but I feel like there ought to be a law against citing stats as evidence of anything until at least the end of April.
I think people were concerned Kiké would regress. And the larger point is that as a unit, they seem weak. When JBJ was last here, he was the defensive lynchpin in an OF with an MVP and an above average LF. His below average bat stands out more now. I don’t expect Kiké to be last in the league. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was below the median. And if the Sox go with this OF all season, I would be surprised if they are *not* bottom 1/3.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,665
|
Post by cdj on Apr 13, 2022 10:01:09 GMT -5
Kikè Devers Story (2B) Martinez Dalbec Arroyo (SS) Verdugo Vazquez JBJ
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 10:02:49 GMT -5
Kikè Devers Story (2B) Martinez Dalbec Arroyo (SS) Verdugo Vazquez JBJ That can’t be right, can it? Why put Story at 2b and Arroyo at SS?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2022 10:10:07 GMT -5
Seems like you're proving too much there. No one thought CF would be a weak spot, so... maybe this 5-game sample doesn't actually mean anything after all?
I have my own criticisms of the RF situation, stated above, but I feel like there ought to be a law against citing stats as evidence of anything until at least the end of April.
I think people were concerned Kiké would regress. And the larger point is that as a unit, they seem weak. When JBJ was last here, he was the defensive lynchpin in an OF with an MVP and an above average LF. His below average bat stands out more now. I don’t expect Kiké to be last in the league. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was below the median. And if the Sox go with this OF all season, I would be surprised if they are *not* bottom 1/3. Fine, but 5 games' worth of stats still isn't evidence of anything. Unless you think Cleveland is the offensive juggernaut of the AL and Boston has the worst offense in the league?
Incidentally, it might be relevant that the Red Sox have played 60% of their games against the Yankees (and another 20% of their games following a terrible travel night). The Yankees have since gone on to make the Blue Jays look even worse than the Red Sox - 3 runs in two games. On the one hand, it may just be that the Red Sox have faced some tough pitching, which should make us feel better. On the other hand, the Yankees pitching has been really good, which should make us feel worse.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2022 10:10:24 GMT -5
Kikè Devers Story (2B) Martinez Dalbec Arroyo (SS) Verdugo Vazquez JBJ That can’t be right, can it? Why put Story at 2b and Arroyo at SS? Obviously because Cora wants Story to become comfortable at 2B without moving him around constantly.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2022 10:11:43 GMT -5
Kikè Devers Story (2B) Martinez Dalbec Arroyo (SS) Verdugo Vazquez JBJ That can’t be right, can it? Why put Story at 2b and Arroyo at SS? During the broadcast yesterday they quoted Cora as saying they didn't want to jerk Story around - they want him to settle in at 2B and they'd only move him to SS in the event of a long-term Bogaerts injury.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 13, 2022 10:21:58 GMT -5
I'm anticipating a big Sox win this afternoon.
E-Rod is going to tip his pitches. Always been a problem for him and no one knows the exact tells better than the Sox.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 10:37:55 GMT -5
I think people were concerned Kiké would regress. And the larger point is that as a unit, they seem weak. When JBJ was last here, he was the defensive lynchpin in an OF with an MVP and an above average LF. His below average bat stands out more now. I don’t expect Kiké to be last in the league. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was below the median. And if the Sox go with this OF all season, I would be surprised if they are *not* bottom 1/3. Fine, but 5 games' worth of stats still isn't evidence of anything. Unless you think Cleveland is the offensive juggernaut of the AL and Boston has the worst offense in the league?
Incidentally, it might be relevant that the Red Sox have played 60% of their games against the Yankees (and another 20% of their games following a terrible travel night). The Yankees have since gone on to make the Blue Jays look even worse than the Red Sox - 3 runs in two games. On the one hand, it may just be that the Red Sox have faced some tough pitching, which should make us feel better. On the other hand, the Yankees pitching has been really good, which should make us feel worse.
I said from the start it is just 5 games. But my point was even at the five game mark it looks pretty much like what the overwhelming majority of the posters expected.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Apr 13, 2022 10:50:44 GMT -5
Kikè Devers Story (2B) Martinez Dalbec Arroyo (SS) Verdugo Vazquez JBJ A Story sighting! Nice. JBJ starting against a lefty?? Not so nice.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Apr 13, 2022 10:53:24 GMT -5
I'm anticipating a big Sox win this afternoon. E-Rod is going to tip his pitches. Always been a problem for him and no one knows the exact tells better than the Sox. I would anticipate a typical Erod-type game where he reaches his pitch limit in the 4th or 5th inning.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2022 11:04:55 GMT -5
Fine, but 5 games' worth of stats still isn't evidence of anything. Unless you think Cleveland is the offensive juggernaut of the AL and Boston has the worst offense in the league?
Incidentally, it might be relevant that the Red Sox have played 60% of their games against the Yankees (and another 20% of their games following a terrible travel night). The Yankees have since gone on to make the Blue Jays look even worse than the Red Sox - 3 runs in two games. On the one hand, it may just be that the Red Sox have faced some tough pitching, which should make us feel better. On the other hand, the Yankees pitching has been really good, which should make us feel worse.
I said from the start it is just 5 games. But my point was even at the five game mark it looks pretty much like what the overwhelming majority of the posters expected. Okay, then I'm back to the point that no one expected Kiké to be the worst CFer in the league. What is the point of this conversation?
Your criticism of the OF construction is reasonable enough on its own; are you going to retract it if JBJ goes 4-4 today and gets his OPS up to .800? Or have you changed your evaluation of Bogaerts because he has a sub-.650 OPS so far? If not then you ought to admit that citing this tiny sample size is totally irrelevant to the discussion.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2022 11:09:44 GMT -5
I said from the start it is just 5 games. But my point was even at the five game mark it looks pretty much like what the overwhelming majority of the posters expected. Okay, then I'm back to the point that no one expected Kiké to be the worst CFer in the league. What is the point of this conversation?
Your criticism of the OF construction is reasonable enough on its own; are you going to retract it if JBJ goes 4-4 today and gets his OPS up to .800? Or have you changed your evaluation of Bogaerts because he has a sub-.650 OPS so far? If not then you ought to admit that citing this tiny sample size is totally irrelevant to the discussion.
Whatever. You seem to be making more of this than I am. If a good player gets off to a slow start, I say… let’s wait. If a bad player gets off to a bad start one can say — at once!! — let’s wait but *also* this might indeed be the very problem everyone anticipated. And there are a few options: one, wait until a long record of futility scientifically proves it; or consider making adjustments before it gets out of hand.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,729
|
Post by gerry on Apr 13, 2022 11:11:53 GMT -5
Actually: Even before these five games you were clamoring for everyone to agree that the Sox are doomed while you continuously state your hope that they will succeed. It is only 5 games. Please stop clamoring. Breathe in slowly through the nose. Exhale. Repeat.
The overwhelming majority on this board have NOT been worried about this OF, certainly not to the level you continue to state. Many hoped for a Suzuki to replace Renfroe. That didnât happen. But with Dugo, Kiké and JBJ it is better defensively than 2021, especially with the former two settling into their positions this season. Perseveration about Mookie and Beni is giving me a headache.
Defensively this OF is very, very strong, arguably among the best, NOT among the worst. At Raffyâs tender age, Verdugo has already established himself as a very good hitter and it looks like Kiké is getting back in the swing after just 5 freaking games which are, in fact, extensions of a short ST. Over the years we have seen JBJ carry the Sox on his back for stretches and then roll over into the shift for stretches. He is an outstanding defender and our #9 hitter in an otherwise very strong lineup. Again. Take a deep breath. And finally Arroyo, Duran, Refsnyder and others provide reasonable 4th, 5th, 6th OF depth. Others will be available before the trade deadline. Breathe.
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Apr 13, 2022 11:16:17 GMT -5
I’d wait until Memorial Day with JBJ. His ABs don’t look that bad. If he looks hopeless against the Orioles staff, then we should be alarmed lol I’ll stick with you on this and hope for the best. I’m already alarmed that JBJ has only had 1 season since 2016 that was above replacement level, and that was the short COVID season of 2020. He can be a 1-2 WAR player, but I’m not super-stoked about him. It’s more that Renfroe is overrated and assuming that Jackie won’t be the absolute worst hitter in baseball. If he is again this year then he’s going to get DFA’d and we’re going to have to eat his contract straight up
|
|
|