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4/19/-4/21 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 22, 2022 8:16:35 GMT -5
It is funny to consider the two threads going here: 1) the Sox are too aggressive and making too little contact; 2) free Franchy! Uhhh… does (2) sound like a way to improve (1)? They need Dalbec to turn it around. If that doesn’t happen in the next month, they need a bigger fix that Shaw or Franchy. That might mean Casas, or, if he’s not ready a real bat by a trade. At some point, Bloom may have to trade a prospect or two that hurt a bit to improve the lineup. If Casas continues his performance in AAA then he's your 1st Dalbec replacement option.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 8:46:23 GMT -5
It is funny to consider the two threads going here: 1) the Sox are too aggressive and making too little contact; 2) free Franchy! Uhhh… does (2) sound like a way to improve (1)? They need Dalbec to turn it around. If that doesn’t happen in the next month, they need a bigger fix that Shaw or Franchy. That might mean Casas, or, if he’s not ready a real bat by a trade. At some point, Bloom may have to trade a prospect or two that hurt a bit to improve the lineup. If Casas continues his performance in AAA then he's your 1st Dalbec replacement option. I’m ok with that. I am not sure they are going to rush him, though.
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Post by benzinger on Apr 22, 2022 8:54:01 GMT -5
It is funny to consider the two threads going here: 1) the Sox are too aggressive and making too little contact; 2) free Franchy! Uhhh… does (2) sound like a way to improve (1)? They need Dalbec to turn it around. If that doesn’t happen in the next month, they need a bigger fix that Shaw or Franchy. That might mean Casas, or, if he’s not ready a real bat by a trade. At some point, Bloom may have to trade a prospect or two that hurt a bit to improve the lineup. Regarding #1, this is where they have missed Schwarber. Say what you want about his contract, but he had an influence over the whole lineup with his approach. Casas is at least willing to draw a walk(not sure he’s ready to help yet, though). Franchy is the answer to a question nobody is asking. I’m in no hurry to see him flailing away again against MLB pitching.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 22, 2022 8:55:14 GMT -5
If Casas continues his performance in AAA then he's your 1st Dalbec replacement option. I’m ok with that. I am not sure they are going to rush him, though. They shouldn't rush Casas but James' Tweet saying he's got a .381 obp .520 slg on a .235 BABIP is certainly eyebrow raising. Small sample size still but if he keeps up the approach and the BABIP stabilizes closer to .300 and he'll be forcing his way up soon.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 22, 2022 9:33:25 GMT -5
It is funny to consider the two threads going here: 1) the Sox are too aggressive and making too little contact; 2) free Franchy! Uhhh… does (2) sound like a way to improve (1)? They need Dalbec to turn it around. If that doesn’t happen in the next month, they need a bigger fix that Shaw or Franchy. That might mean Casas, or, if he’s not ready a real bat by a trade. At some point, Bloom may have to trade a prospect or two that hurt a bit to improve the lineup. "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." No one thinks that Franchy is going to step in and singlehandedly turn this offense around. But at a certain point when you're comparing him to a guy like Shaw, it's probably worth gambling on a "shown legitimate signs of improvement, despite remaining warts" terrible than "known commodity continuing to decline" terrible. I get it can be hard to get in the "hey let's just give it a shot" mindset when the prevailing mindset is crapping all over Franchy (and just about everything else) whenever an opportunity arises, but the bar for Franchy is so low and the cost so minimal that: 1. I feel pretty confident that he can beat the .190/.275/.357 slash line that Shaw has put up since the start of 2021 2. If he doesn't, it's very easy to move off of him again. I am personally a proponent of exhausting all possible internal options relatively quickly, because if one handful of spaghetti that you throw against the wall sticks then you have an answer but if mid-July rolls around and all you have is spaghetti on the floor, at least you can say you know with as much certainty as possible what your needs are going into the deadline.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2022 9:45:13 GMT -5
It is funny to consider the two threads going here: 1) the Sox are too aggressive and making too little contact; 2) free Franchy! Uhhh… does (2) sound like a way to improve (1)? They need Dalbec to turn it around. If that doesn’t happen in the next month, they need a bigger fix that Shaw or Franchy. That might mean Casas, or, if he’s not ready a real bat by a trade. At some point, Bloom may have to trade a prospect or two that hurt a bit to improve the lineup. Regarding #1, this is where they have missed Schwarber. Say what you want about his contract, but he had an influence over the whole lineup with his approach. Casas is at least willing to draw a walk(not sure he’s ready to help yet, though). Franchy is the answer to a question nobody is asking. I’m in no hurry to see him flailing away again against MLB pitching. I think Schwarber's approach is the same as JD's essentially. And the players have talked often about that. Ditto for Xander's approach. I think to have more grinders in the line-up has an exponential effect - and yes - may actually have a ripple effect where free-swinging guys like Kiké, Devers and the bottom 1/3rd of the order pay more attention.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2022 10:06:44 GMT -5
Meanwhile, even if the team is subscribing to the 3 true outcomes philosophy, then it implies that the team is grinding at-bats (walks) in addition to hunting homers. Apparently, most of this team is still focused on HRs and forgot the grinding ABs part, at least so far.
I am not sure if this is coaching or just habit.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 10:21:34 GMT -5
It is funny to consider the two threads going here: 1) the Sox are too aggressive and making too little contact; 2) free Franchy! Uhhh… does (2) sound like a way to improve (1)? They need Dalbec to turn it around. If that doesn’t happen in the next month, they need a bigger fix that Shaw or Franchy. That might mean Casas, or, if he’s not ready a real bat by a trade. At some point, Bloom may have to trade a prospect or two that hurt a bit to improve the lineup. "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." No one thinks that Franchy is going to step in and singlehandedly turn this offense around. But at a certain point when you're comparing him to a guy like Shaw, it's probably worth gambling on a "shown legitimate signs of improvement, despite remaining warts" terrible than "known commodity continuing to decline" terrible. I get it can be hard to get in the "hey let's just give it a shot" mindset when the prevailing mindset is crapping all over Franchy (and just about everything else) whenever an opportunity arises, but the bar for Franchy is so low and the cost so minimal that: 1. I feel pretty confident that he can beat the .190/.275/.357 slash line that Shaw has put up since the start of 2021 2. If he doesn't, it's very easy to move off of him again. I am personally a proponent of exhausting all possible internal options relatively quickly, because if one handful of spaghetti that you throw against the wall sticks then you have an answer but if mid-July rolls around and all you have is spaghetti on the floor, at least you can say you know with as much certainty as possible what your needs are going into the deadline. Yeah, I don't really understand the agita here. For one thing, Dalbec is fine so far (.359 xwOBA, and a manageable 27% K rate); it's not like we're back to June 2021 when everyone was sure Dalbec was hopeless (just prior to his going on an 1.104 OPS tear in the last two months of the season). So we're talking about who we want as a backup first baseman. It doesn't strike me as the team's core issue. In any case, seems fine to go with Shaw for a month, and then if he doesn't work out go with Franchy fo a month, and if he doesn't work out go with Casas.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 22, 2022 10:36:13 GMT -5
I'm not overly worried about the lineup. Dalbec is who he is. He'll be good enough to be playable so I'm not overly worried about him, but I don't expect some huge leap forward either. I think he murders offspeed and hits lefties reasonably well. Righties with velocity are tough for him.
Honestly he's the kind of guy I move in a trade, but my guess is Devers and Bogaers both leave so that basically puts 3b in Dalbec's hands soon, when you factor in that it's just a matter of time before Casas seizes 1b. Of course, like everybody else, I'd prefer Devers stays long-term with Casas at 1b. So you either move Dalbec to 2b, LF, DH him, or trade him. I think the latter two options make the most sense, although I do think if you're DHing Dalbec, then perhaps it's a rotation between Dalbec, Devers, and Casas at the DH spot.
JBJ hasn't been the problem offensively, although when all is said an done, I would expect a major slump for him at some point.
What's concerning about the offense is how hacktastic it is, but I think that sooner or later the weather will get warmer and they'll hit better.
They'll put runs on the scoreboard. The problem is that the pitching, which I think has been better than expected, will regress and negate an awakened offense, so I look at the Red Sox and still see a team that's a bit over .500 and the 3rd or 4th place team in the division.
Eventually I expect JBJ to struggle offensively and the Sox to pick up a corner OF who can be an upgrade in the lineup. I think their big hope for the pen is that Barnes reclaims the closer spot and they can fall into some sort of hierarchy, but I don't have much hope that Barnes can do this and I think there will eventually be a trickle down effect on the pen which means that Whitlock has to be in a jack of all trades pen role, which is too bad, because he should be a starter, but with rare exceptions, it seems that starters are low impact these days (which is why I appreciated Gausman's effort yesterday as I'm so sick and tired of baseball's trend of 5 inning starts!!).
Pivetta is one to watch. He has always been a relative disappointment as a starter. He's the guy most likely to throw a no-hitter and the guy most likely to get lifted in the 2nd inning. I can't help but wonder if he's an adrenaline junkie who would thrive better in high leverage settings although his lack of control and HRs given up could be worrisome. Putting a guy like him into a vacant closing spot could result in him finding himself or being a complete disaster, with no middle ground, but it might be worth some consideration eventually.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 22, 2022 10:57:02 GMT -5
If Casas continues his performance in AAA then he's your 1st Dalbec replacement option. I’m ok with that. I am not sure they are going to rush him, though. My biggest fear is that the answer is both. They'll just continue to let Dalbec fail for 3 months before trying the Casas route.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2022 11:01:12 GMT -5
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." No one thinks that Franchy is going to step in and singlehandedly turn this offense around. But at a certain point when you're comparing him to a guy like Shaw, it's probably worth gambling on a "shown legitimate signs of improvement, despite remaining warts" terrible than "known commodity continuing to decline" terrible. I get it can be hard to get in the "hey let's just give it a shot" mindset when the prevailing mindset is crapping all over Franchy (and just about everything else) whenever an opportunity arises, but the bar for Franchy is so low and the cost so minimal that: 1. I feel pretty confident that he can beat the .190/.275/.357 slash line that Shaw has put up since the start of 2021 2. If he doesn't, it's very easy to move off of him again. I am personally a proponent of exhausting all possible internal options relatively quickly, because if one handful of spaghetti that you throw against the wall sticks then you have an answer but if mid-July rolls around and all you have is spaghetti on the floor, at least you can say you know with as much certainty as possible what your needs are going into the deadline. Yeah, I don't really understand the agita here. For one thing, Dalbec is fine so far (.359 xwOBA, and a manageable 27% K rate); it's not like we're back to June 2021 when everyone was sure Dalbec was hopeless (just prior to his going on an 1.104 OPS tear in the last two months of the season). So we're talking about who we want as a backup first baseman. It doesn't strike me as the team's core issue. In any case, seems fine to go with Shaw for a month, and then if he doesn't work out go with Franchy fo a month, and if he doesn't work out go with Casas. Also, when Dalbec hits the ball, he hits it quite hard. Just not finding holes right now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2022 13:55:23 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't really understand the agita here. For one thing, Dalbec is fine so far (.359 xwOBA, and a manageable 27% K rate); it's not like we're back to June 2021 when everyone was sure Dalbec was hopeless (just prior to his going on an 1.104 OPS tear in the last two months of the season). So we're talking about who we want as a backup first baseman. It doesn't strike me as the team's core issue. In any case, seems fine to go with Shaw for a month, and then if he doesn't work out go with Franchy fo a month, and if he doesn't work out go with Casas. Also, when Dalbec hits the ball, he hits it quite hard. Just not finding holes right now. Do we think that's the case though? He's got just a 18% LD% this year (down about 1.5 percentage points from last year, so not down very much), but his FB% is up 7% largely, it seems, thanks to a roughly 11 percentage point spike in his IFFB rate. His HR/FB rate is down from 22% to 7% as a result, which makes it seem like he's getting under a lot of stuff rather than driving it. That said, looking at his quality of contact numbers on Baseball Savant, it does seem like he's been pretty unlucky. He has a .359 xWOBA compared to a .245 WOBA with improved contact numbers overall. However, one thing I noticed is he may have a new bugaboo. He's hitting fastballs well, but getting absolutely eaten alive by anything offspeed - he's hitting .292/.378/.458 on fastballs and hasn't a hit yet on a breaking or offspeed pitch. SSS at this point but it makes me wonder if he's cheating to catch up to fastballs and pitchers might pick up that he's doing so.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 22, 2022 14:18:29 GMT -5
I’m ok with that. I am not sure they are going to rush him, though. They shouldn't rush Casas but James' Tweet saying he's got a .381 obp .520 slg on a .235 BABIP is certainly eyebrow raising. Small sample size still but if he keeps up the approach and the BABIP stabilizes closer to .300 and he'll be forcing his way up soon. Ian made a good point on the podcast this week that his approach is so advanced that he's too good for the pitching at AAA. He's not swinging at anything he doesn't want too, which is leading to him take a walk rather than unleash his full hitting potential. Better pitching might end up being better for him.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 14:21:30 GMT -5
This topic is absurd to me at this point. There's no use in putting a guy with a .359 xwOBA on the bench because he's been unlucky. Is it because we all know that Casas will not be as unlucky and that Dalbec will never get any luckier?
What happens if Casas struggles? You piss everyone off on the team and screw people's heads up? Great idea guys.
It's something you might try if Dalbec is *actually* struggling when striking out way too much and not hitting the ball hard and after Casas has been raking for a long period of time and has figured out how to get out of slumps, but this is *NOT* the time to even be thinking about it. I bet if Bloom was asked, he'd laugh because he thought it was a joke.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 14:33:26 GMT -5
Also, when Dalbec hits the ball, he hits it quite hard. Just not finding holes right now. Do we think that's the case though? He's got just a 18% LD% this year (down about 1.5 percentage points from last year, so not down very much), but his FB% is up 7% largely, it seems, thanks to a roughly 11 percentage point spike in his IFFB rate. His HR/FB rate is down from 22% to 7% as a result, which makes it seem like he's getting under a lot of stuff rather than driving it.That said, looking at his quality of contact numbers on Baseball Savant, it does seem like he's been pretty unlucky. He has a .359 xWOBA compared to a .245 WOBA with improved contact numbers overall. However, one thing I noticed is he may have a new bugaboo. He's hitting fastballs well, but getting absolutely eaten alive by anything offspeed - he's hitting .292/.378/.458 on fastballs and hasn't a hit yet on a breaking or offspeed pitch. SSS at this point but it makes me wonder if he's cheating to catch up to fastballs and pitchers might pick up that he's doing so. We're talking about 28 batted balls. An "11 percentage point spike in his IFFB rate" = 4 infield flies.
But the "new bugaboo" is an interesting observation. Maybe the latest step in the perpetual dance of adjustment and counter-adjustment? If he can coax pitchers into throwing him more breaking balls that could ultimately be a win for his approach.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 22, 2022 14:48:07 GMT -5
There's no room for Casas on the roster unless one of Devers/JD/Dalbec gets hurt and is out for an extended period. He's not going to come up to platoon, and he has plenty left to work on in the minors. Plus all of those guys are performing fine. He's not coming up as a Shaw replacement.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 22, 2022 14:49:53 GMT -5
I don't get why Dalbec's starting job is so sacred. He wasn't a top prospect. He's gotten a little more than a season's worth of games and has played like a 1 WAR player. The spreadsheets think he's a 1 WAR player going forward.
Does anyone believe he's a better bet against RHP than Casas?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2022 14:59:45 GMT -5
There's no room for Casas on the roster unless one of Devers/JD/Dalbec gets hurt and is out for an extended period. He's not going to come up to platoon, and he has plenty left to work on in the minors. Plus all of those guys are performing fine. He's not coming up as a Shaw replacement. Depends how serious they were about looking at Dalbec in the outfield. I don't get why Dalbec's starting job is so sacred. He wasn't a top prospect. He's gotten a little more than a season's worth of games and has played like a 1 WAR player. The spreadsheets think he's a 1 WAR player going forward. Does anyone believe he's a better bet against RHP than Casas? He was a top 100 guy, so I think you're selling his prospect status a bit short. I don't entirely disagree with your point, but there's reason to give him some run.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 15:09:26 GMT -5
This topic is absurd to me at this point. There's no use in putting a guy with a .359 xwOBA on the bench because he's been unlucky. Is it because we all know that Casas will not be as unlucky and that Dalbec will never get any luckier? What happens if Casas struggles? You piss everyone off on the team and screw people's heads up? Great idea guys. It's something you might try if Dalbec is *actually* struggling when striking out way too much and not hitting the ball hard and after Casas has been raking for a long period of time and has figured out how to get out of slumps, but this is *NOT* the time to even be thinking about it. I bet if Bloom was asked, he'd laugh because he thought it was a joke. Who would be mad if they brought up their #1 prospect to try to compete? There are the wait-and-see-ers with Dalbec, maybe-but-let’s-try-somethings, and I’ve-seen-enoughers. I am one foot in the latter two. I just don’t think Dalbec will ever be very good. I do think he’ll be functional. But… the lineup is not good enough, on the one hand, and on the other there are really only 2 spots that can be improved without something huge: 1b or RF. And we happen to have our best internal option at 1b. That seems to argue for perhaps that move. Or… nothing. Maybe so. But this team has not looked good, and game 3 counts as much as game 159.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 15:10:40 GMT -5
I don't get why Dalbec's starting job is so sacred. He wasn't a top prospect. He's gotten a little more than a season's worth of games and has played like a 1 WAR player. The spreadsheets think he's a 1 WAR player going forward. Does anyone believe he's a better bet against RHP than Casas? Define "so sacred." What people are saying is that he is adequate at 1B. He has a career 110 wRC+ (98 vs. righties), and a 132 wRC+ since last year's all star break, along with improving defense. The argument is that it's not worth rushing Casas and putting him in a platoon role to replace that. And in fact it's not at all clear to me that Casas would be a better bet against righties right away. Maybe after his first 500 or so MLB PAs...
I'd also be loathe to marginalize Dalbec when he's still so early in his career and on the upswing. And I'll take the over on the spreadsheets' projection of a ~100 wRC+ from him.
ADD: Honestly, I think there's just some Dalbecian futility muscle memory kicking in here; he's really not the guy to focus on. Like, what about Kiké? He has an actually bad xwOBA to go with his bad wOBA, and career offensive numbers that are worse than Dalbec's. It would not be shocking if he regresses from last year's offensive output.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 22, 2022 15:41:09 GMT -5
There's no room for Casas on the roster unless one of Devers/JD/Dalbec gets hurt and is out for an extended period. He's not going to come up to platoon, and he has plenty left to work on in the minors. Plus all of those guys are performing fine. He's not coming up as a Shaw replacement. Depends how serious they were about looking at Dalbec in the outfield. I don't get why Dalbec's starting job is so sacred. He wasn't a top prospect. He's gotten a little more than a season's worth of games and has played like a 1 WAR player. The spreadsheets think he's a 1 WAR player going forward. Does anyone believe he's a better bet against RHP than Casas? He was a top 100 guy, so I think you're selling his prospect status a bit short. I don't entirely disagree with your point, but there's reason to give him some run. Agree if Dalbec can play right it changes the calculation, but even then I don't think they're ready to fold on JBJ yet either. I don't think we see Casas until an extra year of service time is secured barring injury, catastrophic performance from an MLB guy, or light-the-world-on-fire stuff from him. I think they may even try to preserve his shot for them to get the bonus draft pick next year if everything is going okay enough.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:09:21 GMT -5
This topic is absurd to me at this point. There's no use in putting a guy with a .359 xwOBA on the bench because he's been unlucky. Is it because we all know that Casas will not be as unlucky and that Dalbec will never get any luckier? What happens if Casas struggles? You piss everyone off on the team and screw people's heads up? Great idea guys. It's something you might try if Dalbec is *actually* struggling when striking out way too much and not hitting the ball hard and after Casas has been raking for a long period of time and has figured out how to get out of slumps, but this is *NOT* the time to even be thinking about it. I bet if Bloom was asked, he'd laugh because he thought it was a joke. Who would be mad if they brought up their #1 prospect to try to compete? There are the wait-and-see-ers with Dalbec, maybe-but-let’s-try-somethings, and I’ve-seen-enoughers. I am one foot in the latter two. I just don’t think Dalbec will ever be very good. I do think he’ll be functional. But… the lineup is not good enough, on the one hand, and on the other there are really only 2 spots that can be improved without something huge: 1b or RF. And we happen to have our best internal option at 1b. That seems to argue for perhaps that move. Or… nothing. Maybe so. But this team has not looked good, and game 3 counts as much as game 159. I'd be mad if they did it now because it's just plain dumb. You're f'ing with Dalbec undeservedly and rewarding Casas who hasn't forced his way to the majors. Dalbec has shown at times to be one of the best hitters in baseball and it's just plain ridiculous to not see if you can tap into more of that, rather than putting his development on hold at best and put it in reverse at worst.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2022 16:13:37 GMT -5
Also, when Dalbec hits the ball, he hits it quite hard. Just not finding holes right now. Do we think that's the case though? He's got just a 18% LD% this year (down about 1.5 percentage points from last year, so not down very much), but his FB% is up 7% largely, it seems, thanks to a roughly 11 percentage point spike in his IFFB rate. His HR/FB rate is down from 22% to 7% as a result, which makes it seem like he's getting under a lot of stuff rather than driving it. That said, looking at his quality of contact numbers on Baseball Savant, it does seem like he's been pretty unlucky. He has a .359 xWOBA compared to a .245 WOBA with improved contact numbers overall. However, one thing I noticed is he may have a new bugaboo. He's hitting fastballs well, but getting absolutely eaten alive by anything offspeed - he's hitting .292/.378/.458 on fastballs and hasn't a hit yet on a breaking or offspeed pitch. SSS at this point but it makes me wonder if he's cheating to catch up to fastballs and pitchers might pick up that he's doing so. Well, it is early so I, too, am not sure what to make of him, or the dearth of hits. I just read that MLB so far is only averaging 7.1 hits per game, which is a 14-year low compared to the same number of games. Also, HRs are down compared to same number of games. Re: the latter, I wonder if Manfred deflated the ball (again). Regarding the former, it could be the shortened spring training. Hopefully, a little indoor ball gets this team on track. Anyway, the weather won't be an excuse.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 16:13:48 GMT -5
Who would be mad if they brought up their #1 prospect to try to compete? There are the wait-and-see-ers with Dalbec, maybe-but-let’s-try-somethings, and I’ve-seen-enoughers. I am one foot in the latter two. I just don’t think Dalbec will ever be very good. I do think he’ll be functional. But… the lineup is not good enough, on the one hand, and on the other there are really only 2 spots that can be improved without something huge: 1b or RF. And we happen to have our best internal option at 1b. That seems to argue for perhaps that move. Or… nothing. Maybe so. But this team has not looked good, and game 3 counts as much as game 159. I'd be mad if they did it now because it's just plain dumb. You're f'ing with Dalbec undeservedly and rewarding Casas who hasn't forced his way to the majors. Dalbec has shown at times to be one of the best hitters in baseball and it's just plain ridiculous to not see if you can tap into more of that, rather than putting his development on hold at best and put it in reverse at worst. Wait… when was Dalbec one of the best hitters in baseball?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:15:50 GMT -5
I'd be mad if they did it now because it's just plain dumb. You're f'ing with Dalbec undeservedly and rewarding Casas who hasn't forced his way to the majors. Dalbec has shown at times to be one of the best hitters in baseball and it's just plain ridiculous to not see if you can tap into more of that, rather than putting his development on hold at best and put it in reverse at worst. Wait… when was Dalbec one of the best hitters in baseball? For several months last season.
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