SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/25-4/28 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 27, 2022 13:16:34 GMT -5
Is Casas being held down long enough to avoid burning a service year? Isn't it usually around May 1? And for RF, do they go longer into the summer for this year's Ramirez/Schwarber move? (and who, Nathaniel Cruz?) Well, if people are anointing Casas after just a handful of AAA at-bats then might as well bring up Duran who's doing great in his small sample, too. And (ducks) Franchy. To be fair its not like JBJ and Dalbec are lighting it up.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2022 13:26:36 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
Name a set closer and define roles in the pen. Whitlock should have been the closer right off the bat. Now it seems like he's going to start but what happens when Sale and Paxton return? Now you have Whitlock or Houck in long relief. They put way too much stock in Matt Barnes but Barnes stuff just isn't there. He suffered from the crackdown more than anyone. Target Lou Trevino who shouldn't take that much to get. Oakland is blowing up the roster and would create a good one two punch with Diekman. If you want someone less proven call up Cincinnati for Sims. The way it should have gone to start the year is Diekman in the 8th and Whitlock/Houck in the 9th. Does Diekman pitch better yesterday if he's the "named closer"? Does Robles not give up the Kiermaier homer if he's the guy? I'm skeptical.
I think it's totally bananas to want to limit Whitlock to a 60 IP role, for reasons that are so self-evident to me I don't even know how to argue it.
Referring to the 3 IP role for Houck/Whitlock as "long relief" is pretty outmoded. If those guys take on that role, it would be for high leverage situations, not mop-up duty. In any event, I'm not so sure it isn't Hill and Wacha who'd take that role if/when Sale and Paxton arrive.
Trivino has a career FIP of 4.00. I dunno, seems fine; interchangeable with about 100 other relievers around the league. But sure, grab him if you like. Ditto on Sims.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 13:26:38 GMT -5
Well, if people are anointing Casas after just a handful of AAA at-bats then might as well bring up Duran who's doing great in his small sample, too. And (ducks) Franchy. To be fair its not like JBJ and Dalbec are lighting it up. I'm all for bringing anyone up who could spark the offense. I actually like the idea of Duran because he can be an annoyance on the basepaths and he seemed to make pitchers antsy when he got on last year. Of course, he'll have to prove he can get on more frequently, too, but there's only one way to do that...
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 13:31:03 GMT -5
Name a set closer and define roles in the pen. Whitlock should have been the closer right off the bat. Now it seems like he's going to start but what happens when Sale and Paxton return? Now you have Whitlock or Houck in long relief. They put way too much stock in Matt Barnes but Barnes stuff just isn't there. He suffered from the crackdown more than anyone. Target Lou Trevino who shouldn't take that much to get. Oakland is blowing up the roster and would create a good one two punch with Diekman. If you want someone less proven call up Cincinnati for Sims. The way it should have gone to start the year is Diekman in the 8th and Whitlock/Houck in the 9th. Does Diekman pitch better yesterday if he's the "named closer"? Does Robles not give up the Kiermaier homer if he's the guy? I'm skeptical. I think it's totally bananas to want to limit Whitlock to a 60 IP role, for reasons that are so self-evident to me I don't even know how to argue it. Referring to the 3 IP role for Houck/Whitlock as "long relief" is pretty outmoded. If those guys take on that role, it would be for high leverage situations, not mop-up duty. In any event, I'm not so sure it isn't Hill and Wacha who'd take that role if/when Sale and Paxton arrive.
Trivino has a career FIP of 4.00. I dunno, seems fine; interchangeable with about 100 other relievers around the league. But sure, grab him if you like. Ditto on Sims.
They could pull a Justin Masterson and just bring up Brandon Walter. Right now he's probably got the best smoke in the upper minors.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 27, 2022 13:34:02 GMT -5
Pigeonholing Whitlock or Houck to the closer role immediately kills a large percentage of what makes them extremely valuable, which is that they can go 3+ innings Sure thats one thought. Another thought is that it allows you to use them in high leverage situations where they probably won't blow the game. If you're asking me is Garrett Whitlock more valuable in a swing role or as a top closer its a no brainer to me. It's a no brainer for me (and math) too.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 27, 2022 14:10:25 GMT -5
Few thoughts on this season start. We're of course dealing with a tiny sample size so drawing conclusions is a futile exercise and I'll stick to things that tend to stabilize quicke: - Barnes arm seems cooked to me, he's barley reaching 94 mph and it's not the "easy" 94 neither, it's maximum-effort-in-an-attempt-to-generate-velo type of fastball which messes up with his already shaky control, never been a fan of the guy but I've got to respect his effort to reinvent himself by increasing his changeup use. I think he'll hit the IL in the near future. Giving him that extension was a mistake. Reacting to a half season of a reliever performance is bad process. - For the first time it seems like Whitlock is having both his secondaries working. Remember when he started last year his changeup was filthy and his slider was slurvy with minimal break and the sharper the slider got, the less he threw his Changeup that lost that late fade action and it led to some platoon issues later in the season. In his start vs a lefty heavy TB lineup he seemed like he's putting the complete package together. Taking him out of the rotation would be malpractice unless there's health concerns. In last night’s broadcast Eck made this same exact remark regarding his mechanics. He’s been rough to watch and I think he’ll end up in a mop up role pretty soon.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 14:20:54 GMT -5
Line-up for the Good Guys: Story 2B, Verdugo LF, Bogaerts SS, Devers 3B, Martinez DH, Hernández CF, Bradley RF, Dalbec 1B, Plawecki C
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Apr 27, 2022 14:34:13 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the team has a bunch of big bullpen arms in the high minors: German throws 97-99 and is literally walking nobody, Chris Taylor will join the team soon, Mata could help in the 2nd half if they decide to bring him as a reliever this year where his explosive fastball/cutter combination could play big time in short stints, Chris Murphy is death to LHH if they convert him to the bullpen too, Politi is intriguing also and if they decide to use Bello in the bullpen just to help him acclimate with the major leagues, oh boy… Plenty of depth.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 27, 2022 15:40:29 GMT -5
Sure thats one thought. Another thought is that it allows you to use them in high leverage situations where they probably won't blow the game. If you're asking me is Garrett Whitlock more valuable in a swing role or as a top closer its a no brainer to me. It's a no brainer for me (and math) too. Then keep blowing saves. I dunno. I see more value in the substance of those innings than saying we're going to have Whitlock piggyback Hill in a 7-2 game. He's clearly your best reliever and you're using him in multiple innings (which is great) except most of the time you're losing anyways. Best reliever should almost always be the guy on the mound when the game is on the line, not starting the 5th inning. When Sale and Paxton arrive, two pitchers will be heading to the pen. It makes sense to throw Houck or Whitlock into the 9th inning spot and fix the hierarchy. Barnes is a mess which is causing all of this chaos in the pen.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 27, 2022 15:46:38 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the team has a bunch of big bullpen arms in the high minors: German throws 97-99 and is literally walking nobody, Chris Taylor will join the team soon, Mata could help in the 2nd half if they decide to bring him as a reliever this year where his explosive fastball/cutter combination could play big time in short stints, Chris Murphy is death to LHH if they convert him to the bullpen too, Politi is intriguing also and if they decide to use Bello in the bullpen just to help him acclimate with the major leagues, oh boy… Plenty of depth. Lots of potential for sure. The question becomes how far back are the Sox in the standings by the time those guys are ready. At that point it really wouldn't matter
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 27, 2022 16:17:51 GMT -5
It's a no brainer for me (and math) too. Then keep blowing saves. I dunno. I see more value in the substance of those innings than saying we're going to have Whitlock piggyback Hill in a 7-2 game. He's clearly your best reliever and you're using him in multiple innings (which is great) except most of the time you're losing anyways. Best reliever should almost always be the guy on the mound when the game is on the line, not starting the 5th inning. When Sale and Paxton arrive, two pitchers will be heading to the pen. It makes sense to throw Houck or Whitlock into the 9th inning spot and fix the hierarchy. Barnes is a mess which is causing all of this chaos in the pen. Your arguments sound a lot better when you get to make things up! Game scores/Inning/Innings Pitched when Whitlock has entered the game in relief. Red Sox scores on the left: 4-3, B6 (6-8) 3-3, B6 (6-9) 4-0, T7 (7-9) 2-1, T9 (9) It's incredibly reductive to assume that "when the game is on the line" only refers to the 9th inning, but you can continue to believe whatever you want to believe.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Apr 27, 2022 16:22:51 GMT -5
Well, if people are anointing Casas after just a handful of AAA at-bats then might as well bring up Duran who's doing great in his small sample, too. And (ducks) Franchy. To be fair its not like JBJ and Dalbec are lighting it up. JBJ is performing exactly as expected. He had a 34 OPS+ last season and has rallied in more comfortable surroundings to get that OPS+ all the way up to 64 this season. Chaim Bloom wins again!
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 27, 2022 16:36:35 GMT -5
To be fair its not like JBJ and Dalbec are lighting it up. I'm all for bringing anyone up who could spark the offense. I actually like the idea of Duran because he can be an annoyance on the basepaths and he seemed to make pitchers antsy when he got on last year. Of course, he'll have to prove he can get on more frequently, too, but there's only one way to do that... His BABIP is .500. I'm OK with keeping him down.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2022 16:46:39 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the team has a bunch of big bullpen arms in the high minors: German throws 97-99 and is literally walking nobody, Chris Taylor will join the team soon, Mata could help in the 2nd half if they decide to bring him as a reliever this year where his explosive fastball/cutter combination could play big time in short stints, Chris Murphy is death to LHH if they convert him to the bullpen too, Politi is intriguing also and if they decide to use Bello in the bullpen just to help him acclimate with the major leagues, oh boy… Plenty of depth. Agreed. The Red Sox have quite a few arms that are close to being MLB ready of whom I would rather the Red Sox keep and bring up rather than use as trade chips for established, but with lower ceiling players! Casas is currently hitting .239 after the doubleheader today. IMO Duran will see MLB time before Casas will…..
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 18:17:34 GMT -5
Wow. Great running by X.
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Apr 27, 2022 18:19:45 GMT -5
Game has a "Must Win" feel to it already. Lol
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Apr 27, 2022 18:25:25 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the team has a bunch of big bullpen arms in the high minors: German throws 97-99 and is literally walking nobody, Chris Taylor will join the team soon, Mata could help in the 2nd half if they decide to bring him as a reliever this year where his explosive fastball/cutter combination could play big time in short stints, Chris Murphy is death to LHH if they convert him to the bullpen too, Politi is intriguing also and if they decide to use Bello in the bullpen just to help him acclimate with the major leagues, oh boy… Plenty of depth. Agreed. The Red Sox have quite a few arms that are close to being MLB ready of whom I would rather the Red Sox keep and bring up rather than use as trade chips for established, but with lower ceiling players! Casas is currently hitting .239 after the doubleheader today. IMO Duran will see MLB time before Casas will….. Coming into the double header he also had a .395 OBP and .508 SLG. The average in a vacuum is pretty misleading.
|
|
|
Post by gunboat82 on Apr 27, 2022 18:33:27 GMT -5
To be fair its not like JBJ and Dalbec are lighting it up. I'm all for bringing anyone up who could spark the offense. I actually like the idea of Duran because he can be an annoyance on the basepaths and he seemed to make pitchers antsy when he got on last year. Of course, he'll have to prove he can get on more frequently, too, but there's only one way to do that... How much more frequently does Duran really have to prove he can get on to justify a change? Yes, Duran looked awful last year in 107 ABs, and his OPS was .578. Even if Duran repeated those abysmal numbers, he'd still be outperforming JBJ and Dalbec. JBJ brings defense to the table. But if we're already debating which lineup gives us the best chance at an average .600 OPS from the 5-9 spots in the lineup, how much do those defensive runs saved really matter?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 18:33:33 GMT -5
Effing deflated ball.
Effing.
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Apr 27, 2022 18:41:12 GMT -5
Balls are DEFINITELY deflated. Even that ball by Toronto should have been gone
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
|
Post by cdj on Apr 27, 2022 18:53:33 GMT -5
When your OBP is .400, yes
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 18:57:03 GMT -5
Brutal.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 27, 2022 18:57:07 GMT -5
JDM looks a bit like toast.
|
|
|
Post by reasonabledoubt on Apr 27, 2022 18:59:38 GMT -5
JDM looks a bit like toast. ...at some time in the past they were both hot.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
|
Post by cdj on Apr 27, 2022 19:01:48 GMT -5
JDM looks a bit like toast. Unfortunately he’s been one of the better hitters on the team, even with that appearance of being perhaps a bit toasted! That was a hell of a squander
|
|
|