SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/25-4/28 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
|
Post by greenmonster on Apr 27, 2022 9:43:06 GMT -5
The thing that is also hurting right now is Sale being out. If he were healthy, one of Houck, Whitlock, or Wacha would be in the pen… and any of the three would immediately be option 1 or 1a if Robles keeps it up. How long until he gets back? I have not seen anything to indicate it is soon. Sale hasn’t been healthy in almost 4 years, though.... I don't think Sale is the savior here. He is currently on the 60-day which would mean early June was best case scenario. I would expect he will need to make a few mL starts as he ramps up, etc. Prior to that would be some bullpens but haven't seen anything about him doing anything other than playing catch.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2022 9:44:08 GMT -5
When you realize the chances of winning the WS are pretty low even if you make the playoffs these days… you’ll feel a lot better. This team is rebuilding the farm and will have financial flexibility as well as Story under what I believe is a good contract. So those odds will be better when Story is ~32, and we *might* have teenagers develop into starters? Yes
|
|
briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
|
Post by briam on Apr 27, 2022 9:52:31 GMT -5
At this point I’m hard pressed to find a good argument for keeping Casas in AAA. He’s almost certainly going to struggle against MLB pitching whenever he gets called up, just like Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and Kelenic. His approach alone will still be a huge benefit to this lineup though, and makeup for what they lost in Schwarber. There are enough ABs for Dalbec as a utility guy without banishing him to the shadow realm too.
The biggest frustration thus far is the offense wasn’t able to capitalize on the first two weeks when the bullpen was great. Sure the dead ball probably had a lot to do with both the offense and bullpen, but this week has been a reminder of what this bullpen most likely is, tons of perfectly fine arms but nobody you really trust in high leverage.
If there’s one fair criticism of Bloom it’s that he hasn’t done a good job putting a bullpen together. Last season they ran poor Ottavino and Barnes into the ground and failed to add any meaningful guys to help ease their burden. He didn’t find a legit hammer in the off-season and we can see how that’s playing out now. I don’t see how this is a playoff bullpen unless Barnes miraculously figures it out, which is a pretty nerve wracking place to be.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2022 10:08:49 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 27, 2022 10:12:36 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
This is fair, but: 1) nothing is worse than a pen that doesn’t have clear roles. People can say closers are overrated, but bullpens rarely function without a clear pecking order. We went into the season without any idea who was what. 2) if you sign a starter who can, you know, start, instead of Paxton, then Wacha is in your pen right now, which is a boost right there.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 27, 2022 10:19:14 GMT -5
At this point I’m hard pressed to find a good argument for keeping Casas in AAA. He’s almost certainly going to struggle against MLB pitching whenever he gets called up, just like Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and Kelenic. His approach alone will still be a huge benefit to this lineup though, and makeup for what they lost in Schwarber. There are enough ABs for Dalbec as a utility guy without banishing him to the shadow realm too. The biggest frustration thus far is the offense wasn’t able to capitalize on the first two weeks when the bullpen was great. Sure the dead ball probably had a lot to do with both the offense and bullpen, but this week has been a reminder of what this bullpen most likely is, tons of perfectly fine arms but nobody you really trust in high leverage. If there’s one fair criticism of Bloom it’s that he hasn’t done a good job putting a bullpen together. Last season they ran poor Ottavino and Barnes into the ground and failed to add any meaningful guys to help ease their burden. He didn’t find a legit hammer in the off-season and we can see how that’s playing out now. I don’t see how this is a playoff bullpen unless Barnes miraculously figures it out, which is a pretty nerve wracking place to be. What's the point of holding onto Bobby then? In case Casas fails or someone gets hurt? He'd be a utility guy, but how often would he be taking Devers, Casas, or JDM out of the lineup? I feel like if you're making the move to call him up, you're sending Bobby down. Maybe put him in RF at AAA and move Franchy to 1B full time to see if you can get any flexibly from either. Maybe hitting AAA pitching could be a boost in his confidence. I really don't want pressure being put on Casas such as him needing to be the savior and him competing with Bobby for playing time at 1B.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2022 10:22:19 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
This is fair, but: 1) nothing is worse than a pen that doesn’t have clear roles. People can say closers are overrated, but bullpens rarely function without a clear pecking order. We went into the season without any idea who was what. 2) if you sign a starter who can, you know, start, instead of Paxton, then Wacha is in your pen right now, which is a boost right there. But if they signed a starter who can start, they don't have the money to sign Wacha. Unless you mean they should have gotten a $10 million starter, along the lines of Alex Cobb or Andrew Heaney. (Though actually, dang, Heaney has some stupid numbers through his first two starts.)
That's the other thing: assuming realistic budget limitations, if they had spent more on relievers they would have had less to spend on Hill, Wacha, Story, and, well, JBJ... So if the idea is they should have spent more (which, I realize, you are not necessarily arguing) then what part of the roster should they have spent less on?
|
|
briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
|
Post by briam on Apr 27, 2022 10:22:55 GMT -5
At this point I’m hard pressed to find a good argument for keeping Casas in AAA. He’s almost certainly going to struggle against MLB pitching whenever he gets called up, just like Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and Kelenic. His approach alone will still be a huge benefit to this lineup though, and makeup for what they lost in Schwarber. There are enough ABs for Dalbec as a utility guy without banishing him to the shadow realm too. The biggest frustration thus far is the offense wasn’t able to capitalize on the first two weeks when the bullpen was great. Sure the dead ball probably had a lot to do with both the offense and bullpen, but this week has been a reminder of what this bullpen most likely is, tons of perfectly fine arms but nobody you really trust in high leverage. If there’s one fair criticism of Bloom it’s that he hasn’t done a good job putting a bullpen together. Last season they ran poor Ottavino and Barnes into the ground and failed to add any meaningful guys to help ease their burden. He didn’t find a legit hammer in the off-season and we can see how that’s playing out now. I don’t see how this is a playoff bullpen unless Barnes miraculously figures it out, which is a pretty nerve wracking place to be. What's the point of holding onto Bobby then? In case Casas fails or someone gets hurt? He'd be a utility guy, but how often would he be taking Devers, Casas, or JDM out of the lineup? I feel like if you're making the move to call him up, you're sending Bobby down. Maybe put him in RF at AAA and move Franchy to 1B full time to see if you can get any flexibly from either. Maybe hitting AAA pitching could be a boost in his confidence. I really don't want pressure being put on Casas such as him needing to be the savior and him competing with Bobby for playing time at 1B. I would tinker with him as a corner outfielder too. Sure it wouldn’t be great defensively but I think he’s athletic enough to be serviceable. If you have him spelling JBJ, Verdugo, Devers, and Casas he could still carve out a meaningful role. I’m not sure a trip to AAA would do him much good at this point in his career.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 27, 2022 10:27:09 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
This is fair, but: 1) nothing is worse than a pen that doesn’t have clear roles. People can say closers are overrated, but bullpens rarely function without a clear pecking order. We went into the season without any idea who was what. 2) if you sign a starter who can, you know, start, instead of Paxton, then Wacha is in your pen right now, which is a boost right there. How many bullpens in the league right now have a clear, rigidly defined, pecking order with a set of roles though? I certainly don't know the answer, but I also don't think you can make the assertion you do without knowing it either. A couple interesting recent Fangraph links that don't go to directly disprove what you say, but just might add more context to the discussion. First, while it's a fantasy article, almost a third of the league has a bullpen committee, so it's not like this is outlier instability: fantasy.fangraphs.com/bullpen-report-april-27-2022/The second is an interesting article about increased bullpen size's effect on offense in the league, so while it doesn't directly relate to your point I think you can also look at some of the data that's presented in it and make conclusions that teams are employing a "Rest > role" approach to bullpen usage, which destabilizes the pecking order a bit but, as the article shows, actually makes bullpens a little better. blogs.fangraphs.com/how-bigger-bullpens-are-constraining-offense/Again, just providing some context to the discussion, there's probably a middle ground between shelling out for a Liam Hendricks who might just be bad now and having a bullpen full of guys off the scrap heap that you throw in in whatever order you want, but I don't know if we or anyone fully know where that equilibrium is. Also, you've mentioned this a few times, but why are you so insistent on sending Wacha to the bullpen? He's been quite good in his first three starts and I'm just going to assume his non-start appearances for the Rays were some opener funkiness and say he's never really been a reliever. I'd still probably be moving Houck back to the pen if it had to be anyone and, honestly, I'd probably move Pivetta before I did Wacha.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 27, 2022 10:38:13 GMT -5
The bullpen has a 3.62 ERA over 77 innings. Seems fine to me. It'd be nice to have a prime Papelbon back there, but I would not ever want to be the league wide high bidder for a guy like that in trade/free agency so I'm fine relying on serendipity to find one and frequently going without. I want Whitlock pitching lots of innings on a schedule that keeps him healthy.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 27, 2022 10:41:03 GMT -5
What's the point of holding onto Bobby then? In case Casas fails or someone gets hurt? He'd be a utility guy, but how often would he be taking Devers, Casas, or JDM out of the lineup? I feel like if you're making the move to call him up, you're sending Bobby down. Maybe put him in RF at AAA and move Franchy to 1B full time to see if you can get any flexibly from either. Maybe hitting AAA pitching could be a boost in his confidence. I really don't want pressure being put on Casas such as him needing to be the savior and him competing with Bobby for playing time at 1B. I would tinker with him as a corner outfielder too. Sure it wouldn’t be great defensively but I think he’s athletic enough to be serviceable. If you have him spelling JBJ, Verdugo, Devers, and Casas he could still carve out a meaningful role. I’m not sure a trip to AAA would do him much good at this point in his career. I would rather he learn to play a corner OF role in the minors than on the fly in the majors. Let him make mistakes in games that don't matter. From what I can see, since 2014 he's played 2 games in LF (once in 2014 and once in 2016, he was 19 in 2014). If he proves himself adequate he can be a super utility with RF, LF, 1B, 3B, and DH with most of his at bats coming in RF where I have zero qualms with him taking over for JBJ or Arroyo (depending on his defense).
|
|
briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
|
Post by briam on Apr 27, 2022 10:52:27 GMT -5
I would tinker with him as a corner outfielder too. Sure it wouldn’t be great defensively but I think he’s athletic enough to be serviceable. If you have him spelling JBJ, Verdugo, Devers, and Casas he could still carve out a meaningful role. I’m not sure a trip to AAA would do him much good at this point in his career. I would rather he learn to play a corner OF role in the minors than on the fly in the majors. Let him make mistakes in games that don't matter. From what I can see, since 2014 he's played 2 games in LF (once in 2014 and once in 2016, he was 19 in 2014). If he proves himself adequate he can be a super utility with RF, LF, 1B, 3B, and DH with most of his at bats coming in RF where I have zero qualms with him taking over for JBJ or Arroyo (depending on his defense). That’s fair. I suppose I’m focusing more on his offensive capabilities and would rather have him get those MLB ABs over Arroyo.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 27, 2022 10:59:26 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
This is fair, but: 1) nothing is worse than a pen that doesn’t have clear roles. People can say closers are overrated, but bullpens rarely function without a clear pecking order. We went into the season without any idea who was what. 2) if you sign a starter who can, you know, start, instead of Paxton, then Wacha is in your pen right now, which is a boost right there. Where I disagree with the logic here is that going into the season with a clear pecking order matters. Oftentimes from all I can recall, the best reliever in the pen during the season isn't the guy who you expected at the start.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 27, 2022 11:02:16 GMT -5
The bullpen has a 3.62 ERA over 77 innings. Seems fine to me. It'd be nice to have a prime Papelbon back there, but I would not ever want to be the league wide high bidder for a guy like that in trade/free agency so I'm fine relying on serendipity to find one and frequently going without. I want Whitlock pitching lots of innings on a schedule that keeps him healthy. Before this series, the bullpen was arguably the best spot on the team. Diekman had the strikeouts in New York and all that. I don’t think they’re as bad as they were this series or as good as they were early on. My biggest source of agita for this team remains the lineup.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 27, 2022 11:05:01 GMT -5
This is fair, but: 1) nothing is worse than a pen that doesn’t have clear roles. People can say closers are overrated, but bullpens rarely function without a clear pecking order. We went into the season without any idea who was what. 2) if you sign a starter who can, you know, start, instead of Paxton, then Wacha is in your pen right now, which is a boost right there. How many bullpens in the league right now have a clear, rigidly defined, pecking order with a set of roles though? I certainly don't know the answer, but I also don't think you can make the assertion you do without knowing it either. A couple interesting recent Fangraph links that don't go to directly disprove what you say, but just might add more context to the discussion. First, while it's a fantasy article, almost a third of the league has a bullpen committee, so it's not like this is outlier instability: fantasy.fangraphs.com/bullpen-report-april-27-2022/The second is an interesting article about increased bullpen size's effect on offense in the league, so while it doesn't directly relate to your point I think you can also look at some of the data that's presented in it and make conclusions that teams are employing a "Rest > role" approach to bullpen usage, which destabilizes the pecking order a bit but, as the article shows, actually makes bullpens a little better. blogs.fangraphs.com/how-bigger-bullpens-are-constraining-offense/Again, just providing some context to the discussion, there's probably a middle ground between shelling out for a Liam Hendricks who might just be bad now and having a bullpen full of guys off the scrap heap that you throw in in whatever order you want, but I don't know if we or anyone fully know where that equilibrium is. Also, you've mentioned this a few times, but why are you so insistent on sending Wacha to the bullpen? He's been quite good in his first three starts and I'm just going to assume his non-start appearances for the Rays were some opener funkiness and say he's never really been a reliever. I'd still probably be moving Houck back to the pen if it had to be anyone and, honestly, I'd probably move Pivetta before I did Wacha. I am not insistent on Wacha to the pen, but I’m guilty of using him as shorthand for odd-man-out. I do think of Wacha, Whitlock, and Houck I’d be most inclined to send him to the pen because I think he’d be effective and I want to develop the longer term guys. But I would also accept Houck going. I don’t intentionally shut out that prospect.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 27, 2022 11:07:43 GMT -5
The bullpen has a 3.62 ERA over 77 innings. Seems fine to me. It'd be nice to have a prime Papelbon back there, but I would not ever want to be the league wide high bidder for a guy like that in trade/free agency so I'm fine relying on serendipity to find one and frequently going without. I want Whitlock pitching lots of innings on a schedule that keeps him healthy. Before this series, the bullpen was arguably the best spot on the team. Diekman had the strikeouts in New York and all that. I don’t think they’re as bad as they were this series or as good as they were early on. My biggest source of agita for this team remains the lineup. That’s fair, and my frustration with the pen may be a kind of projection. This team’s O is so bad that it seems like every run scored against yhem is magnified.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Apr 27, 2022 11:10:16 GMT -5
The thing that is also hurting right now is Sale being out. If he were healthy, one of Houck, Whitlock, or Wacha would be in the pen… and any of the three would immediately be option 1 or 1a if Robles keeps it up. How long until he gets back? I have not seen anything to indicate it is soon. Sale hasn’t been healthy in almost 4 years, though.... Sale at least June 1. He’s on the 60 Day. Would it save his arm to try him as a closer??? Or would the back to back hurt him???
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 27, 2022 11:14:09 GMT -5
Sale hasn’t been healthy in almost 4 years, though.... Sale at least June 1. He’s on the 60 Day. Would it save his arm to try him as a closer??? Or would the back to back hurt him??? It would probably save his arm to only give him 30-40 IP as a reliever, but color me disappointed if they only get 30-40 IP out of Sale this season.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 11:15:35 GMT -5
I mean are we just gonna pretend that people werent saying the same things last year and then they ended up arguably a Laz Diaz away from the World Series? It’s not like they’re getting blown out. They’re frustrating losses but at the end of the day it’s April. I really like what bloom has done here. The only move I really question is the Barnes contract because I believe he gave it out not all that long after the sticky stuff ban. Probably should’ve waited until he got more data on how Barnes would do without it. I really love the direction the org is heading in and to me it’s clear they have a plan. The plan is solid. But for the next two years I wonder if tanking is the best way to get sustained success for the next 10 years. You have a very interesting scenario with a big market team that has a mid market sensibility. In a clean slate this organization will not spend with the Yankees or Dodgers but they do have the ability to. The core of the 2018 team will be gone by opening day next year. You still have Cora and you have some interesting building blocks. You can dump Sale in a trade for someone who wants say Eovaldi and take 27 million off the payroll for next year and r eplace Eovaldi and Sale with Groome and Bello/Mata. You can move Xander and probably get 3 solid prospects. Devers you'll get a haul for. So theres at least a sensible conversation to be had about tanking if this team isn't going to contend next year anyways. But if the plan is to contend this year and next then they really need to fix the bullpen. Barnes needs to go on the DL or something. So replace two guys when they pitch who are #1/2s with two guys who may not even be #5s? I don't see how this helps anything.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 27, 2022 11:44:35 GMT -5
The plan is solid. But for the next two years I wonder if tanking is the best way to get sustained success for the next 10 years. You have a very interesting scenario with a big market team that has a mid market sensibility. In a clean slate this organization will not spend with the Yankees or Dodgers but they do have the ability to. The core of the 2018 team will be gone by opening day next year. You still have Cora and you have some interesting building blocks. You can dump Sale in a trade for someone who wants say Eovaldi and take 27 million off the payroll for next year and r eplace Eovaldi and Sale with Groome and Bello/Mata. You can move Xander and probably get 3 solid prospects. Devers you'll get a haul for. So theres at least a sensible conversation to be had about tanking if this team isn't going to contend next year anyways. But if the plan is to contend this year and next then they really need to fix the bullpen. Barnes needs to go on the DL or something. So replace two guys when they pitch who are #1/2s with two guys who may not even be #5s? I don't see how this helps anything. I'm still a believer in the Groomer.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Apr 27, 2022 11:47:11 GMT -5
Sale at least June 1. He’s on the 60 Day. Would it save his arm to try him as a closer??? Or would the back to back hurt him??? It would probably save his arm to only give him 30-40 IP as a reliever, but color me disappointed if they only get 30-40 IP out of Sale this season. Well theoretically his arm is healthy right now. He's dealing with a rib injury and has almost no mileage on the new UCL. I hope they use Sale (and Paxton) in roles similar to Houck's right now. Keep them in the rotation but limit their pitch counts and line up multi-inning guys behind them. Or, somewhat equivalently, they could be those multi-inning guys coming in later. I do want them to stick to the starter rhythm of pitching about half the game every five days because that's what both of them will likely be doing in 2023 and beyond and they've been quite successful in that role over their careers.
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 27, 2022 13:09:27 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
Name a set closer and define roles in the pen. Whitlock should have been the closer right off the bat. Now it seems like he's going to start but what happens when Sale and Paxton return? Now you have Whitlock or Houck in long relief. They put way too much stock in Matt Barnes but Barnes stuff just isn't there. He suffered from the crackdown more than anyone. Target Lou Trevino who shouldn't take that much to get. Oakland is blowing up the roster and would create a good one two punch with Diekman. If you want someone less proven call up Cincinnati for Sims. The way it should have gone to start the year is Diekman in the 8th and Whitlock/Houck in the 9th.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 27, 2022 13:11:59 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what the concrete suggestions would be for how to better build a bullpen. It seems to me there are four options:
1) Shell out a ton of money for a "proven closer." 2) Be luckier than everyone else with your dumpster-diving acquisitions. 3) Throw enough spaghetti at the wall that something sticks. 4) Develop prospects to perform the role on the cheap.
#1, in my view, is a terrible approach; there are never more than about 3 relievers in the game who are truly reliable, and the flameout rate on expensive reliever acquisitions is enormous. See, e.g., Barnes...
#2 is great, but is not exactly a strategy. Maybe a super smart front office can figure out the market inefficiency here, but I'm not sure if we've seen that for any team; again, relievers are just too unpredictable. (Though the Yankees seem irritatingly close to figuring it out.)
#3 is, I think, part of what the Red Sox have done the last couple of years, and it's fine, but it takes a couple months at the beginning of the season to sort things out.
#4 takes even longer - years rather than months - but this is where the Red Sox have improved enormously in the last couple of years, with a couple guys already arrived, and several more on the brink.
Name a set closer and define roles in the pen. Whitlock should have been the closer right off the bat. Now it seems like he's going to start but what happens when Sale and Paxton return? Now you have Whitlock or Houck in long relief. They put way too much stock in Matt Barnes but Barnes stuff just isn't there. He suffered from the crackdown more than anyone. Target Lou Trevino who shouldn't take that much to get. Oakland is blowing up the roster and would create a good one two punch with Diekman. The way it should have gone to start the year is Diekman in the 8th and Whitlock/Houck in the 9th. Pigeonholing Whitlock or Houck to the closer role immediately kills a large percentage of what makes them extremely valuable, which is that they can go 3+ innings
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 27, 2022 13:13:44 GMT -5
Name a set closer and define roles in the pen. Whitlock should have been the closer right off the bat. Now it seems like he's going to start but what happens when Sale and Paxton return? Now you have Whitlock or Houck in long relief. They put way too much stock in Matt Barnes but Barnes stuff just isn't there. He suffered from the crackdown more than anyone. Target Lou Trevino who shouldn't take that much to get. Oakland is blowing up the roster and would create a good one two punch with Diekman. The way it should have gone to start the year is Diekman in the 8th and Whitlock/Houck in the 9th. Pigeonholing Whitlock or Houck to the closer role immediately kills a large percentage of what makes them extremely valuable, which is that they can go 3+ innings Sure thats one thought. Another thought is that it allows you to use them in high leverage situations where they probably won't blow the game. If you're asking me is Garrett Whitlock more valuable in a swing role or as a top closer its a no brainer to me.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 13:15:33 GMT -5
Is Casas being held down long enough to avoid burning a service year? Isn't it usually around May 1? And for RF, do they go longer into the summer for this year's Ramirez/Schwarber move? (and who, Nathaniel Cruz?) Well, if people are anointing Casas after just a handful of AAA at-bats then might as well bring up Duran who's doing great in his small sample, too. And (ducks) Franchy.
|
|
|