SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/24 Gameday Thread: Bello Will Not Falter; Salem vs WS MVP
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on May 25, 2022 7:54:35 GMT -5
It’s wildly impressive to see him k ~20% of the time and walk even more than that.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
|
Post by nomar on May 25, 2022 7:59:49 GMT -5
It’s wildly impressive to see him k ~20% of the time and walk even more than that. If they had played the same number of games, he and Kavadas have probably seen 1/2 of the # of pitches the MLB club has seen combined lol
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 25, 2022 8:33:53 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that Groome doesn't get credit for getting guys out and preventing runners from scoring, when that's his only job. In his last start, he threw 6 shutout innings and worked out of several jams but he only struck out one guy, so were they actually six not-so-great shutout innings? Three of his six starts thus far this season resulted in game scores of 65+, while only two of Murphy's eight starts have scored as high. You could say that those are only results, and you'd be right. And unless Murphy has grown at least a couple inches and put on at least a couple stone since he was last measured, he's probably too small to be in a big-league rotation. But his stuff might play in relief. I also believe that Groome has faced more than his share of adversity in his still young life, including a 45-month stretch in which he pitched only 4 innings in actual games, and I still think of him as a work in progress. He's still barely a year removed from that unforeseen break. Noah Song last pitched 33 months ago, with no TJ to recover from, and I'd bet money that the Navy has kept him in good shape and I'd also bet money that he gets a lot more benefit of the doubt from scouts on his road back. That's my opinion of Jay Groome and I'll pull for him even if scouts say his stuff is not as good as his results and he's a Henry Owens comp (I'll be pulling for Murphy and Song too, of course, because I'm a Sox fan who follows Sox prospects; I'm not a fan who follows national prospect lists or a scout who doesn't care about laundry). Still, I have to wonder why the FO put Groome on the 40-man. They should be able to see that he won't be able to get big-leaguers out and they should probably let him be some other club's fool's gold. This is a prospects-centric forum. While results are cool and obviously we are all happy to see players perform well, at the end of the day most of what any of us care about is how that applies to the big league club. You can give him all the credit you want for his success and he deserves it, but being realistic about what the people who know the game are seeing from him isn't a bad thing from the rest of us, by any means. Everyone here is pulling for him, it's ridiculous for you to imply otherwise, and clearly he has *some* potential, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to have cautious optimism in this case.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2022 10:59:49 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that Groome doesn't get credit for getting guys out and preventing runners from scoring, when that's his only job. In his last start, he threw 6 shutout innings and worked out of several jams but he only struck out one guy, so were they actually six not-so-great shutout innings? Three of his six starts thus far this season resulted in game scores of 65+, while only two of Murphy's eight starts have scored as high. You could say that those are only results, and you'd be right. And unless Murphy has grown at least a couple inches and put on at least a couple stone since he was last measured, he's probably too small to be in a big-league rotation. But his stuff might play in relief. I also believe that Groome has faced more than his share of adversity in his still young life, including a 45-month stretch in which he pitched only 4 innings in actual games, and I still think of him as a work in progress. He's still barely a year removed from that unforeseen break. Noah Song last pitched 33 months ago, with no TJ to recover from, and I'd bet money that the Navy has kept him in good shape and I'd also bet money that he gets a lot more benefit of the doubt from scouts on his road back. That's my opinion of Jay Groome and I'll pull for him even if scouts say his stuff is not as good as his results and he's a Henry Owens comp (I'll be pulling for Murphy and Song too, of course, because I'm a Sox fan who follows Sox prospects; I'm not a fan who follows national prospect lists or a scout who doesn't care about laundry). Still, I have to wonder why the FO put Groome on the 40-man. They should be able to see that he won't be able to get big-leaguers out and they should probably let him be some other club's fool's gold. This is a prospects-centric forum. While results are cool and obviously we are all happy to see players perform well, at the end of the day most of what any of us care about is how that applies to the big league club. You can give him all the credit you want for his success and he deserves it, but being realistic about what the people who know the game are seeing from him isn't a bad thing from the rest of us, by any means. Everyone here is pulling for him, it's ridiculous for you to imply otherwise, and clearly he has *some* potential, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to have cautious optimism in this case. I'll add that if you're in a Double-A fantasy baseball league, sure, everything you've posted, UJ, is true. I just really don't care about Double-A game scores or bending but not breaking. And it's not necessarily just strikeouts or bust - if he wasn't striking guys out but was throwing a bowling ball of a sinker and hadn't allowed a batted ball out of the infield or something, I'd be just as impressed. I can't tell you the number of times we've heard "but the results!" in response to "this won't play the same way in MLB." I've fallen into that trap plenty myself! But I mean, even recently we've gotten that on Dalbec, gotten that on Chavis, gotten that on Duran, etc. (I know they're all hitters but the comparison is apt and they've had more hitter examples than pitcher ones recently.) And if we're being completely open here, I should add that I don't love the shape he's in either. He's a big boy and has always fluctuated in terms of his body. But right now it's on the wrong side of that spectrum. Maybe he becomes David Wells and it doesn't matter, but having seen him thinner (Lowell in 2019), it doesn't give me great comfort to see him perhaps not in the best of shape. I'm pulling for him too. I can relate to some of the crap he's dealt with. But I think it comes down to my disagreement with one premise in your post, about his "job." From one perspective, yes, the pitcher's job is to throw up zeros. But taking a broader view, no, Jay Groome's job is not to help the Portland Sea Dogs win games. It's to develop into a pitcher that helps a major league team win games. There is a difference between the two. The former affects whether or not, say, we pick him for Pitcher of the Week. The latter affects how we rank and grade him, and how we project his future.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 25, 2022 11:09:32 GMT -5
This conversation has gotten me a fair bit more pessimistic about Groome. A guy with a low-90s fastball and meh secondaries, who doesn't exactly appear to have elite command, and conditioning issues to boot? What is it that makes him a top-10 prospect at this point?
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 25, 2022 11:37:41 GMT -5
This is a prospects-centric forum. While results are cool and obviously we are all happy to see players perform well, at the end of the day most of what any of us care about is how that applies to the big league club. You can give him all the credit you want for his success and he deserves it, but being realistic about what the people who know the game are seeing from him isn't a bad thing from the rest of us, by any means. Everyone here is pulling for him, it's ridiculous for you to imply otherwise, and clearly he has *some* potential, but I think it's perfectly reasonable to have cautious optimism in this case. I'll add that if you're in a Double-A fantasy baseball league, sure, everything you've posted, UJ, is true. I just really don't care about Double-A game scores or bending but not breaking. And it's not necessarily just strikeouts or bust - if he wasn't striking guys out but was throwing a bowling ball of a sinker and hadn't allowed a batted ball out of the infield or something, I'd be just as impressed. I can't tell you the number of times we've heard "but the results!" in response to "this won't play the same way in MLB." I've fallen into that trap plenty myself! But I mean, even recently we've gotten that on Dalbec, gotten that on Chavis, gotten that on Duran, etc. (I know they're all hitters but the comparison is apt and they've had more hitter examples than pitcher ones recently.) And if we're being completely open here, I should add that I don't love the shape he's in either. He's a big boy and has always fluctuated in terms of his body. But right now it's on the wrong side of that spectrum. Maybe he becomes David Wells and it doesn't matter, but having seen him thinner (Lowell in 2019), it doesn't give me great comfort to see him perhaps not in the best of shape. I'm pulling for him too. I can relate to some of the crap he's dealt with. But I think it comes down to my disagreement with one premise in your post, about his "job." From one perspective, yes, the pitcher's job is to throw up zeros. But taking a broader view, no, Jay Groome's job is not to help the Portland Sea Dogs win games. It's to develop into a pitcher that helps a major league team win games. There is a difference between the two. The former affects whether or not, say, we pick him for Pitcher of the Week. The latter affects how we rank and grade him, and how we project his future. Denyi Reyes and Victor Santos are probably good pitching examples that are in-system. Corey Littrell was one of the other guys that came to mind.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2022 13:16:31 GMT -5
Groome's got better stuff than them and has had far better results, so don't know that I love the comps. Owens and Brian Johnson come to mind as better comparisons.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 25, 2022 13:17:57 GMT -5
The thing is, though, Groome's got better command than most of that crew, including Owens. It's such a weird profile. His physicality isn't helping either, it's just hard to look at a guy like that long-term and not have concerns. David Wells was a heavy guy who got by with command and secondaries but there aren't a ton of them. Groome repeats his delivery a lot better than most guys his size. But he also leaves his fastball up more than he'll be able to against guys who can pick up a fastball.
Part of the negativity, I think, stems from the fact that every time he's had a good start in the last 14 months, which is quite a few times, someone inevitably is on here or the Twitter machine or both with "IS HIS STUFF BACK?" And every time, we have to be all "no his stuff is not all the way back, he is a different pitcher now." So there's been the adjustment of "can he be a good version of the type of pitcher he is now?" And the answer to that isn't "no" yet. If it were, he wouldn't be a Top 20 prospect in the system. He does a fair amount of things well, but the lack of front-end upside paired with the question marks has him on a level below that Murphy/Winchowski group.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2022 13:32:44 GMT -5
Not to pile on, but one more point - it's time to stop using the COVID year/TJS time off as a reason to think the stuff is going to dramatically change. We're far enough out from those (and he pitched at the alt site in 2020, which if anything gave him a leg up on the typical minor league arm from that time) that it's not reasonable to think the curve will return to plus or the velo will tick back up into the mid-90s. He kind of is what he is now, and as James says, we'll see how that works out.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on May 26, 2022 11:09:08 GMT -5
I get the difference between fans and scouts and I get that results in the minor leagues are secondary to preparation for a shot at the Show. But my larger point, from which I've deviated, is that there are times when the scout's view is more important, like breaking down a random 6 IP 5 H 4 R 2 ER 3 BB 7 K outing, and there are times when the fan's view is more important, like a no-no in a kid's first AAA start, being mobbed by his new teammates on the biggest day of his baseball life, bouncing around in jubilation. Sure, the scouts were all there and we can ask for their takes, but why suck the joy out of it when there will be another opportunity to critique the kid in 5 days?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2022 13:46:29 GMT -5
I don't think anybody is saying you shouldn't enjoy a player's success. You're the one who came in and made the points that Groome "doesn't get credit for getting guys out and preventing runners from scoring, when that's his only job," an "Groome could throw a no-no in his AAA debut and the scouts would say "yeah, but his stuff wasn't great."" People responded to that, in a very measured, non-confrontational way, I'd add.
This is a prospect website. People want to discuss what these guys will do in the majors. Discussing that isn't "sucking the joy out of it." It's discussing a player's future MLB prospects on a site that is the place to do just that. Looking above at the thread, there are posts discussing how well he threw and there are (pretty measured, reasonable) posts talking about how the stuff might not be matching the results. Discussion of the bridge between those two is arguably the most interesting part of "prospecting." The converse works too, right? If a guy in Salem isn't hitting for any power on paper, I'm going to point out how much that league, and Salem's park specifically, suppresses power, and we shouldn't be surprised when guys move up and seemingly grow into more of it, or how when a guy is still hitting for a ton of power there, how impressive that is.* Would that, then, be artificially pumping a guy up?
* - see Kavadas, Hickey, and Jordan all having a bunch of doubles compared to home runs. Ideally those could all turn to HRs in Greenville.
|
|
|