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6/30 Gameday Thread: Sale on Sea Dogs; A Debut for the Woo
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 30, 2022 20:25:48 GMT -5
Niko homered again
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Post by sittingstill on Jun 30, 2022 20:27:07 GMT -5
Checked in on Greenville just in time to see Kavadas lose one over the batter's eye in center to tie the game... and then Big Joe Davis club one out to left. Drive leading 4-3.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 30, 2022 20:34:35 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 30, 2022 20:38:55 GMT -5
WHERE did we get all of this pitching?? Chris Murphy after 3 innings has 3 K's, 1 bb, and zero hits allowed. Pretty soon the Rays will be envious of us!! Lol I know you didn't mean it as a real question, but worth thinking about: - Super low bonus IFA - Random late-round college senior who turned into a different pitcher during the year in which the season was canceled by a global pandemic - Part of return in trade of legit MLB regular LF- Mid-round college pick who randomly fixed his issues with control upon signing that led to his falling that far - Part of return in trade of two already crumbling MLB RPs The legit MLB regular LF who went 13 for 103 in his last three months with the team (with one HR and 3 2Bs) and who was in no way a lock for the starting LF job if he hadn't been traded?
I really don't think Chaim gets enough credit for how much he was able to get in return for two years of that player at that tine.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jun 30, 2022 20:44:43 GMT -5
Looks like Chris Sale passed his test in Portland. He gave up 1 run and four hits while striking out seven in four innings. He didn’t walk anyone. Did anyone see him pitch? I’d be curious to know how he actually looked. Sale completely overmatched the NH batters with his slider. I’ve never seen so many swings and misses in person before. He got squared up about three times, with the loudest contact going for a wall ball double. Fastball sat around 94-95 and was generally effective, but wasn’t exactly vintage Sale.
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Post by borisman on Jun 30, 2022 20:56:51 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 30, 2022 21:13:00 GMT -5
Niko up to .303/.464/.664 for the season
Finishes June hitting an above average .400/.538/1.013
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Jun 30, 2022 21:16:30 GMT -5
Niko is MLB ready. A week in high A is plenty.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 30, 2022 21:18:18 GMT -5
Niko up to .303/.464/.664 for the season Finishes June hitting an above average .400/.538/1.013 Juuust a bit above average...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 30, 2022 21:30:09 GMT -5
I don't know that the draft good command/control theory really holds up in our recent draft classes though? Top P picks in recent years include Wyatt Olds, Shane Drohan, Jeremy Wu-Yelland, Ryan Zeferjaun, and Chris Murphy. I wouldn't say any of those guys demonstrated very good control/command in college. T his front office isn't scared off by some unsightly BB rates (see Troye as a priority Day 3 pick last year or even Drohan's numbers at FSU). I do buy into the deemphasis of things like conventional deliveries and conventional body types in favor of effective stuff. To one of Chris' points above, though, the Mata/Bello/Walter/Murphy/Groome/Ward phalanx were all brought in between 2016 and 2019. Houck too. In other words, "how'd they get all this promising pitching all of a sudden?" is a question about what the team was doing under Dombrowski (though not necessarily what they were doing *because of* Dombrowski) rather than what they're doing now. Bloom's added to the arsenal through trades (Seabold and Winckowski) and R5 thievery (Whitlock), but it's TBD on his drafted/IFA guys.
Heck, if these were indeed industry-wide shifts, maybe the Red Sox are now correcting for an overcorrection in that direction. (Or more likely it's just contingency and small sample size stuff giving the illusion of a recent "trend.")
Why do people feel like they always have to make snarky comments about DD being successful in spite of himself?
He has a long track record of success and he successfully took what Cherington had accumulated, made a bunch of big moves, and turned it into the greatest season in franchise history. Of course, Cherry also deserves credit but would it have happened if he had stayed?
DD traded A LOT of minor league inventory and unequivocally won almost all of those trades. Perhaps more important was the guys he refused to trade, who turned into perennial all-stars and an MVP.
But then everyone said "Sure, it was the greatest season in franchise history but he left the cupboard bare!" Well, now we see that the cupboard wasn't completely bare but some still refuse to give credit to DD for restocking it. His management style is famously centralized -- around himself -- but we're supposed to believe that everything was just happening around him without his input?
Obviously, the GM (or CBO or whatever) doesn't do everything himself. But he is still in charge and by the time he's in the seat a couple years, he's put his system in place, whether or not there is massive turnover in the FO in general.
If the team and farm system started falling apart over the next year or two, could Chaim say "well, it's not my fault, there's still a bunch of FO and development guys left over from DD's time"? Of course he couldn't. He kept (or let go) the guys who were with DD and it's his job to get the most out of them as he sees fit. Just like it was DD's job to do his best with guys left over from Cherry's FO and development staff.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2022 21:32:44 GMT -5
I think you're reading in something that isn't there. All I took from that is the point you were making in your second-to-last paragraph.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 30, 2022 21:35:48 GMT -5
Maybe it's easier to say when he didn't homer?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 30, 2022 21:41:04 GMT -5
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 30, 2022 21:45:56 GMT -5
That looks like a fastball high and inside (from a lefty) that he turned on there - a pitch that he's supposed to maybe have trouble with for swing path reasons. Now, it's just high A and pitchers at other level would maybe attack that spot more effectively, either by commanding and locating (could have been higher!) that better or by sequencing so he can't prepare to adjust for it, but sure looks like a good sign to me!
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 30, 2022 21:45:57 GMT -5
Rafaela is gonna hit like .240/.285/.402 in the show and then you look at Fangraphs and it says he's on pace for a 4 WAR season
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 30, 2022 21:49:28 GMT -5
Rafaela is gonna hit like .240/.285/.402 in the show and then you look at Fangraphs and it says he's on pace for a 4 WAR season Kevin Keiermaier has 31.5 career bWAR and 23.2 career fWAR with a career .248/.307/.408 line.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 30, 2022 21:55:12 GMT -5
Checked in on Greenville just in time to see Kavadas lose one over the batter's eye in center to tie the game... and then Big Joe Davis club one out to left. Drive leading 4-3. He's killing it again in Greenville. The average isn't going to stay near .500, but even with that he's still carrying a high walk rate with an ISOD over .100. I expect that to go even higher as word gets around the league. A lot of effort will be devoted to pitching him on the black. The average will drop of course, and there will probably be a few more Ks as he gets stretched for balls he can hit. But hit he can, at least at the A and A+ grades. Fearsome bat at these levels.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 30, 2022 22:02:27 GMT -5
I think you're reading in something that isn't there. All I took from that is the point you were making in your second-to-last paragraph. My main point is more the last paragraph -- that many of the same people can remain after a regime change but many also have different marching orders sent down from the top. I don't think any GM comes in and says "Hey guys, I have some ideas about how to change some things but if you don't want to, that's fine." Some may conduct more of a dialogue than others but all have their own ideas about what works. Otherwise, maybe I'm just the only person who has heard the narrative that DD sold the farm and then left the cupboard bare (and then I saw someone write that the Sox developed some good pitching "under DD but not necessarily because of DD"). If we hold our GMs to the standard of competing every year and winning multiple championships, then they're all going to fail. There hasn't been a repeat WS champ in more than two decades and no team that has been competitive every year in that time has won it all more than once. SFG won three in five years and still missed the playoffs each year following a parade (and later had four straight losing seasons) but Brian Sabean is still a slamdunk HOFer.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2022 22:16:19 GMT -5
Not your main point. The poster you were quoting.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 30, 2022 23:13:25 GMT -5
To one of Chris' points above, though, the Mata/Bello/Walter/Murphy/Groome/Ward phalanx were all brought in between 2016 and 2019. Houck too. In other words, "how'd they get all this promising pitching all of a sudden?" is a question about what the team was doing under Dombrowski (though not necessarily what they were doing *because of* Dombrowski) rather than what they're doing now. Bloom's added to the arsenal through trades (Seabold and Winckowski) and R5 thievery (Whitlock), but it's TBD on his drafted/IFA guys. Heck, if these were indeed industry-wide shifts, maybe the Red Sox are now correcting for an overcorrection in that direction. (Or more likely it's just contingency and small sample size stuff giving the illusion of a recent "trend.")
Why do people feel like they always have to make snarky comments about DD being successful in spite of himself?
He has a long track record of success and he successfully took what Cherington had accumulated, made a bunch of big moves, and turned it into the greatest season in franchise history. Of course, Cherry also deserves credit but would it have happened if he had stayed?
DD traded A LOT of minor league inventory and unequivocally won almost all of those trades. Perhaps more important was the guys he refused to trade, who turned into perennial all-stars and an MVP.
But then everyone said "Sure, it was the greatest season in franchise history but he left the cupboard bare!" Well, now we see that the cupboard wasn't completely bare but some still refuse to give credit to DD for restocking it. His management style is famously centralized -- around himself -- but we're supposed to believe that everything was just happening around him without his input? Obviously, the GM (or CBO or whatever) doesn't do everything himself. But he is still in charge and by the time he's in the seat a couple years, he's put his system in place, whether or not there is massive turnover in the FO in general.
If the team and farm system started falling apart over the next year or two, could Chaim say "well, it's not my fault, there's still a bunch of FO and development guys left over from DD's time"? Of course he couldn't. He kept (or let go) the guys who were with DD and it's his job to get the most out of them as he sees fit. Just like it was DD's job to do his best with guys left over from Cherry's FO and development staff.
I tell you DD put together a good Tigers team but they ran into Papi in 2013.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2022 3:11:20 GMT -5
DD traded A LOT of minor league inventory and unequivocally won almost all of those trades. He's already lost the Sale trade 15.3 WAR to 14.5, and Kopech and Moncada have 6 years of original control left between them (3.5 and 2.5). That's going to be a massive loss. In 2018 Sale missed the equivalent of 9 starts due to injury and had a 4.11 ERA in the post-season, so (given our final division lead) it's hard to say that he made a difference in winning the WS, when compared to a less costly acquisition.
Margot is at 11.4 WAR with 1.5 years of original control left. Kimbrel had 6.5 for the Sox. In the 2018 post-season he gave up 7 R/ER in 11 IP, with 9 hits, and 10 BB or HBP versus 10 SO. Another complete non-factor in the WS win, versus a less costly acquisition.
In Sale's case, the team never addressed his consistent, annual late-season decline which reduced him to a #3 starter in August and beyond. In 2018 the same factors that had led him to decline instead produced injury, it seems.
Kimbrel was coming off an off year and the trade doesn't make sense unless you knew why it happened and how to fix it. What we got was two more off years sandwiched around a sole classic Kimbrel year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 1, 2022 10:11:36 GMT -5
DD traded A LOT of minor league inventory and unequivocally won almost all of those trades. He's already lost the Sale trade 15.3 WAR to 14.5, and Kopech and Moncada have 6 years of original control left between them (3.5 and 2.5). That's going to be a massive loss. In 2018 Sale missed the equivalent of 9 starts due to injury and had a 4.11 ERA in the post-season, so (given our final division lead) it's hard to say that he made a difference in winning the WS, when compared to a less costly acquisition.
Margot is at 11.4 WAR with 1.5 years of original control left. Kimbrel had 6.5 for the Sox. In the 2018 post-season he gave up 7 R/ER in 11 IP, with 9 hits, and 10 BB or HBP versus 10 SO. Another complete non-factor in the WS win, versus a less costly acquisition.
In Sale's case, the team never addressed his consistent, annual late-season decline which reduced him to a #3 starter in August and beyond. In 2018 the same factors that had led him to decline instead produced injury, it seems.
Kimbrel was coming off an off year and the trade doesn't make sense unless you knew why it happened and how to fix it. What we got was two more off years sandwiched around a sole classic Kimbrel year.
Maybe you think that the Sox would've been as good or a better team in 2018 with Kopech (0.1 bWAR), Moncada (1.4), and Margot (1.3) instead of Sale (6.4) and Kimbrel (2.1), but I don't. Do they still even make the WS? It's simply not the same team without Sale or 42 saves from Kimbrel (although any reliever can close...).
Would those three guys have gotten the Sox over the hump last year? Maybe Kopech (0.8) improves the bullpen enough to get past HOU? With Moncada (4.0) on board at 2B, maybe you don't get Kique (4.9) and with Margot (2.8) in RF, maybe you don't get Renfroe (2.3) or maybe you take someone other than Verdugo (2.2) in the Mookie trade. Heck, maybe you still have Mookie since you didn't extend Sale or Eovaldi because the 2018 WS never happened!
Knowing what I know now (viz. that the 2018 team was the best in franchise history), I make those moves 10 times out of 10. The GM's job is to build a team that can win a WS. Accumulating net positive WAR over time through transactions is a good way to start but at some point, you have to go for it when the window is open rather than always pushing it forward. Maybe that's why the Rays have never won it all... Of course there's a lot of luck involved once you get to the post-season but some teams, like the 2018 Sox, are so good they don't need luck.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 1, 2022 10:43:09 GMT -5
He's already lost the Sale trade 15.3 WAR to 14.5, and Kopech and Moncada have 6 years of original control left between them (3.5 and 2.5). That's going to be a massive loss. In 2018 Sale missed the equivalent of 9 starts due to injury and had a 4.11 ERA in the post-season, so (given our final division lead) it's hard to say that he made a difference in winning the WS, when compared to a less costly acquisition.
Margot is at 11.4 WAR with 1.5 years of original control left. Kimbrel had 6.5 for the Sox. In the 2018 post-season he gave up 7 R/ER in 11 IP, with 9 hits, and 10 BB or HBP versus 10 SO. Another complete non-factor in the WS win, versus a less costly acquisition.
In Sale's case, the team never addressed his consistent, annual late-season decline which reduced him to a #3 starter in August and beyond. In 2018 the same factors that had led him to decline instead produced injury, it seems.
Kimbrel was coming off an off year and the trade doesn't make sense unless you knew why it happened and how to fix it. What we got was two more off years sandwiched around a sole classic Kimbrel year.
Maybe you think that the Sox would've been as good or a better team in 2018 with Kopech (0.1 bWAR), Moncada (1.4), and Margot (1.3) instead of Sale (6.4) and Kimbrel (2.1), but I don't. Do they still even make the WS? It's simply not the same team without Sale or 42 saves from Kimbrel (although any reliever can close...).
Would those three guys have gotten the Sox over the hump last year? Maybe Kopech (0.8) improves the bullpen enough to get past HOU? With Moncada (4.0) on board at 2B, maybe you don't get Kique (4.9) and with Margot (2.8) in RF, maybe you don't get Renfroe (2.3) or maybe you take someone other than Verdugo (2.2) in the Mookie trade. Heck, maybe you still have Mookie since you didn't extend Sale or Eovaldi because the 2018 WS never happened!
Knowing what I know now (viz. that the 2018 team was the best in franchise history), I make those moves 10 times out of 10. The GM's job is to build a team that can win a WS. Accumulating net positive WAR over time through transactions is a good way to start but at some point, you have to go for it when the window is open rather than always pushing it forward. Maybe that's why the Rays have never won it all... Of course there's a lot of luck involved once you get to the post-season but some teams, like the 2018 Sox, are so good they don't need luck.
Sale and Kimbrel combined to make ~$25 million in 2018, so in the counterfactual 2018 the Red Sox don't just have Kopech, Moncada, and Margot; they also have $25 million/year more to spend on free agents.
Even in the counterfactual 2021, presumably Sale wouldn't have re-signed with the Red Sox at his $26 million AAV, and Margot/Kopech/Moncada made only $10 million last year, so you'd have to hand Bloom another $15 million to work with.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 1, 2022 12:30:48 GMT -5
If you're not discounting future WAR then all trades should look bad. 1 WAR in 2022 should not be given the same amount of weight as 1 WAR in 2017.
With that said, I think the trades are still close to neutral. The team got substantially better on an expected WAR basis heading in 2016/17/18 and while we did give up value to get that, on a discounted basis I think the trades are still fair in both directions.
Similarly, the 25M in 2018 argument doesn't do much for me since I'd have to imagine that the cost-per-expected-WAR for those two players was significantly in our favor compared to someone on the open market at 8M-per-WAR.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 1, 2022 12:56:43 GMT -5
If you're not discounting future WAR then all trades should look bad. 1 WAR in 2022 should not be given the same amount of weight as 1 WAR in 2017. I'm not sure about that. 1 WAR this year is worth the same to me as 1 WAR in the future, except to the extent that I might be dead and unable to enjoy the team in the future. Some teams will especially desire present WAR, but that evens out across the league given the zero-sum nature of the game.
In finance there is a discount rate because you can expect to get positive returns otherwise.
In sports reality, teams act as if there is a discount rate, but I think this is a clear example of princpal-agent problem. The person making the trades is trying to hang on to his dream job and doesn't expect to survive much present and near-future failure. In the NFL, where there is the least job security, you see like 50% yearly discount rates on draft picks, which is just absurd.
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